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Marquez win caps epic MotoGP sophomore season

November 9, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Valencia Results, by Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

In the modern era of MotoGP, no rider has crafted a season comparable to Marc Marquez in 2014. Among the records he established this season are most wins in a single season, becoming the youngest rider to repeat as world champion, and claiming the most poles in one season. At age 21, the MotoGP world is his oyster. As announcer Nick Harris asked repeatedly during today’s contest, where will it all end?

2014 MotoGP World Champion

Double world champion Marc Marquez celebrates his 13th win of the season in Valencia.

The bulk of the on-track suspense today was provided by the weather which, having been idyllic all weekend, brought just enough rain during the premier class race to jumble what should have been an orderly procession. As the grid lined up, an azure sky suddenly filled with black rain clouds. Once the sighting lap had been completed, the pit crews commenced a frenzied effort to put the #2 bikes in wet setup, changing out virtually everything but the engines and decals in a few frantic minutes.

It began to rain lightly immediately after the start, which found Pramac Ducati overachiever Andrea Iannone leading the usual Alien suspects—Valentino Rossi, Marquez, Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo—at the end of Lap 1. The factory Ducati contingent of Cal Crutchlow and Andrea Dovizioso were right up there too, and the crowd at the front had a number of fans watching through their hands, dreading what could easily have been a multi-bike, season-changing snafu which, somehow, the contestants managed to avoid. On Lap 2, Race Direction showed the white flag, indicating the riders could pit to change bikes at their leisure. By Lap 3, Movistar Yamaha icon Jorge Lorenzo had fallen back to 7th position, his psychological issues with wet tracks, born at Assen last year, clearly visible and a harbinger of bad things yet to come later in his day.

Randy_DePuniet_c_GnGjpg

Suzuki wildcard Randy de Puniet during his brief appearance at Valenia 2014.

Approaching mid-race, a number of predictable things began to occur, as fuel loads dropped and Iannone’s tires began to decompose. On Lap 10, Marquez went through easily on Rossi into second place, waged war with Iannone for most of a lap, and went through on the Italian the next time around into the lead he would hold for the rest of the day. On Lap 13, wildcard Suzuki rider Randy de Puniet fulfilled our prediction and retired from the race, disappointing everyone, myself included, who had hoped for more from Suzuki’s return to MotoGP. By the end of Lap 15, the Aliens owned the top four spots on the grid, with Marquez leading Rossi, Pedrosa challenging from third, and Lorenzo seemingly holding on for dear life in fourth.

Rossi at Valencia

The ageless Valentino Rossi on his way to second place for the day and the 2014 season at Valencia.

The rain arrived again on Lap 18, with the leaders giving up roughly eight seconds per lap trying to stay upright. Lorenzo and Iannone, losing ground fighting over 4th place and with little to lose, pitted and changed bikes, a decision Lorenzo will have all winter to regret. Praying for a drenching rain that never came, the two re-entered the race out of the points. Predictably, their rain tires, with a lifespan measured in minutes running on dry asphalt, quickly dissolved, with Lorenzo retiring on Lap 25 and Iannone finishing a lap down. Once again, the rain had stopped as quickly as it started, and the race was dry for the duration. Marquez, Rossi and Pedrosa, running 1-2-3 since Lap 12, would finish in that order, giving Rossi second place for the year, a remarkable accomplishment for the 35 year old wonder. Rossi, though still a force to be reckoned with, believes he can challenge for the title in 2015, a vivid example of the power of adrenaline over sound judgment.

Elsewhere on the Grid

The little races-within-the-race provided some excitement for folks who follow such things. Factory Ducati #1 Dovizioso pipped defecting teammate Cal Crutchlow at the flag for 4th place in a battle that raged all day. The Espargaro brothers, Aleix and Pol, ran together most of the day, with little brother (and Rookie of the Year) Pol pushing his satellite Tech 3 Yamaha to a 3/10th margin over Aleix on the Forward Racing Yamaha, cementing 6th place for the season at big brother’s expense. Pol’s teammate, Brit Bradley Smith, had been in contention for sixth place for much of the second half of the season, but a brief off-track excursion late today produced a 14th place finish and confirmed an 8th place result for the season.

A Story of Two Half Seasons

A cursory examination of the results attained by the factory Honda and Yamaha teams in Rounds 1-9 versus Rounds 10-18 shows a dramatic turnaround in fortunes. Marquez and Pedrosa combined for 373 points in the first half versus 235 in the second. Rossi and Lorenzo combined for only 228 points in the first but came back with 320 in the second. Had Marquez not completely dominated the first half of the season, the championship battle leading up to today’s race would have been far more interesting. This, of course, is the old “if a bullfrog had wings” argument easily dismissed by discerning readers:

StatsCapture

The 2015 Season is Already Here

Having turned out the lights on the 2014 season today, we look forward to the changes on the 2015 grid that officially start tomorrow. The grid parts company with the PBM team and riders Michael Laverty and Broc Parkes, but is joined by the factory Suzuki team, Aleix Espargaro and Moto2 grad Maverick Vinales onboard (Vinales likely sporting a penalty point or two from his silly takedown of Mike Kallio in the Moto2 race today).

Jack Miller1

An unhappy Jack Miller, who got pushed around just enough to miss a world championship by two points in Valencia.

Moto3 tough guy Jack Miller, who won the riveting battle but lost the war to Alex Marquez in Moto3 today, jumps up to join Cal Crutchlow on an expanded LCR Honda team. Eugene Laverty makes the move from World Super Bike to MotoGP to join Nicky Hayden on an energized Drive 7 Aspar Honda team. Coming along for the ride is Frenchman Loris Baz, who will team up with Stefan Bradl at the Yamaha-powered NGM Forward Racing group. And great things are expected from Scott Redding next year, as he reunites with his homeys at Marc VDS Racing and their new MotoGP team, playing with a factory option Honda.

In addition to Bradl and Espargaro, Cal Crutchlow will change livery tomorrow, making his first appearance on a factory option LCR Honda. Alvaro Bautista rode his factory Honda for the last time today, having been deservedly demoted to the tenuous factory Gresini Aprilia “Modest Expectations” team, second rider, if any, yet to be named. Andrea Iannone gets bumped up from Pramac to the factory Ducati team alongside Dovizioso, the Italians seeking resurrection in 2015 under the mystical hand of Gigi Dall’igna. And Danilo Petrucci gets a boost from Octo IodaRacing to Pramac, with his spot going to a determinedly optimistic Alex de Angelis.

In Summary

A season which began with Jorge Lorenzo crashing out on Lap 1 at Losail ends with three symmetric podium celebrations at Circuit Ricardo Tormo. The new Moto3 world champion, Alex Marquez, stood on the third step of the podium today. The new Moto2 champion, Tito Rabat, stood on the second. And the new MotoGP champion, Marc Marquez, stood on the top. For the first time in MotoGP history, two brothers are champions, joined in triumph by their best friend and training companion. Allegedly, the three conduct the most vigorous in-season and off-season training regime in the sport. It is appropriate, therefore, that we salute all three with a quote from our old friend Aristotle, who observed centuries ago that “Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.”

Thanks to all of you who have faithfully followed this column this year. We look forward to hooking up with you again next spring for what promises to be another memorable year of grand prix racing.

2014 Valencia Race Top Ten

 

 

2014 Top Ten

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Aliens have plenty at stake in MotoGP season finale

November 5, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Valencia Preview, by Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

For the 20th time in 22 years, MotoGP steams into the season finale with the title already decided. Repsol Honda phenom Marc Marquez, fresh off his white-knuckled win in the Malaysian furnace arrives, title in hand, looking to break Mick Doohan’s 1997 record of 12 wins in a season. The Twin Powers at Movistar Yamaha, Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo, have an appointment at Circuit Ricardo Torma to decide whom will finish second in 2014. But Repsol #2 Dani Pedrosa, having screwed the pooch (twice) in Sepang, may have some plans of his own this weekend.

victory helmetMarquez, who clinched his first premier class title last year in Valencia with a strategic third place finish, comes back to Spain in 2014 confident, relaxed and ready to eclipse Doohan’s 1997 record. Generally, when the term “win or bin” is used in MotoGP, it’s an expression of desperation, i.e., unless I can find a way to win this thing I might as well pack it in. In Marquez’s case, it means quite the opposite. He has the freedom to go all out in pursuit of the win, with no real downside if he pushes his RC213V past the limit. Finishing second, in this case, gets him little more than a DNF; might as well go all out.

The battle for second place between Rossi and Lorenzo finds the Italian protecting a 12 point lead, with the Spaniard forced into the conventional “win or bin” posture while still needing help from the field. The most likely scenario in which tiebreakers would come into play would have Lorenzo winning the race and Rossi finishing fourth; other mathematical possibilities exist (Lorenzo finishes second, Rossi finishes seventh, etc.), but are so remote as to not deserve mention.Rossi & Lorenzo

The bottom line: If Lorenzo wins and Rossi finishes fourth or worse, Lorenzo takes second place. Likewise, if Rossi crashes out and Lorenzo finishes fourth or higher, Lorenzo wins. In any event, Lorenzo needs a dominating performance, and/or Rossi must suffer a Pink Floyd-esque momentary lapse of reason for the Mallorcan to have any chance of salvaging second place in 2014. The smart money is on Rossi.

Whither Dani Pedrosa

For Repsol Honda #2 Pedrosa, Valencia represents an opportunity for a bit of redemption after a miserable last quarter of the season. Engaged in a knife fight with Rossi over second place for most of the year, he won at Brno, giving him a 13 point lead over the Italian and a comfortable 49 point lead over Lorenzo with seven races left. At that point, a top three finish in 2014 appeared to be a lock.

After getting edged out of a podium finish by Rossi at Silverstone and an acceptable 3rd place finish at San Marino, the wheels fell of Pedrosa’s 2014 season. A bad decision at Aragon, bad luck at Phillip Island and a bad race at Sepang brought it all crashing down. At Aragon, he waited one lap too long to pit as rain came to the Spanish plain. He was the victim of terrible decision-making by LCR Honda pilot Stefan Bradl at Phillip Island, getting taken down from the rear with no warning or means of avoiding the crash. And he lost the front not once but twice on the hot, greasy Malaysian tarmac, thereby guaranteeing himself an unsatisfying fourth place finish for the year.

pedrosa_marquezOther than having signed a new two year deal with Honda earlier in the year, 2014 has been forgettable for the diminutive Spaniard. This weekend’s fray, however, offers the opportunity for him to make a meaningful impact on the season itself, as follows:
• A win here, which would be his fourth in the premier class, would deprive his irritating teammate of a record he would dearly love to secure. Take THAT, gran bateador.
• Similarly, a win Sunday would almost certainly deprive countryman Lorenzo of his slim chance to finish second this year, which has some appeal of its own.
• Finally, a fight with Rossi, with nothing on the line, could result in the Italian finishing far enough down in the order to miss second place for 2014 and lose a small sliver of his legendary luster.

Clearly, these are hollow goals for a professional as competitive as Dani Pedrosa. But as the saying goes, when life hands you lemons, the least you can do is make lemonade, even if you happen to be traveling 190 mph wearing a funny-looking leather jumpsuit.

Randy de Puniet and the Return of SuzukiRandy_DePuniet_c_GnGjpg

RDP was in the news this week, discoursing about the present and future of the Suzuki MotoGP program and his place in it. De Puniet, who has spent the past year testing and developing the new GSX-RR bike, will be a wildcard at Valencia. He expressed some disappointment that he had not been tagged as one of the two factory team riders for 2015, but candidly admitted that both Vinales and Espargaro are faster than him. He also suggested that Suzuki would be well-served by fielding a two bike satellite team going forward, as such are the source of the data contributing to the relative success of the factory Honda, Yamaha and, to a lesser extent, Ducati programs.

Call me cynical, but I’m thinking de Puniet must have floated this particular balloon past the suits at Suzuki corporate more than once without any positive response. Having failed in that, he apparently decided to go public with idea, in the hope of generating some pressure on his Japanese masters in excess of that which he was able to generate on his own. I suspect the chances of this idea getting adopted, with Randy on one of the satellite bikes, are two—slim and none. At any rate, it will be good to see him back on track at Valencia, as he has ridden there every year since 1999. And, I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that he qualifies higher than he finishes. Just sayin’.

The Best Race of the Weekend: Moto3

Jack MillerWith Tito Rabat having clinched the Moto2 title last time out at Sepang, the only title still up for grabs is in Moto3. Season leader Alex Marquez, Marc’s little brother, holds an 11 point lead over young Australian overachiever Jack Miller, whom we were able to meet and chat with in Malaysia. The guy says all the right things, and is a legitimate threat to take the Moto3 title this weekend, if bad things happen to Marquez, which they are unlikely to do.

The set-up between Marquez and Miller is essentially identical to that of Rossi and Lorenzo, so there’s no point in going through the scenarios. The Moto3 battle up front in Malaysia was breathtaking start to finish, with neither rider, nor any of the top five finishers, showing any quit. Marquez can title by playing it safe, while Miller is squarely in “win or bin” mode, plus praying for help from the racing gods.

The weekend forecast for Valenciana is dry, so the finale should not get screwed up by the weather. The race goes off at 8:00 am Eastern time in the U.S., and we’ll have results, plus our annual literary reference summing up the season, right here on Sunday evening.

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2014 Valencia Test Times, Day 2

November 12, 2013

by Bruce Allen

11/12/2013            Courtesy of Crash.net

1. Marc Marquez ESP Repsol Honda Team (RC213V) 1m 30.536s (Lap 75/77)
2. Jorge Lorenzo ESP Yamaha Factory Racing (YZR-M1) 1m 30.768s (58/60)
3. Dani Pedrosa ESP Repsol Honda Team (RC213V) 1m 30.948s (67/72)
4. Stefan Bradl GER LCR Honda MotoGP (RC213V) 1m 30.990s (57/60)
5. Alvaro Bautista ESP Go&Fun Honda Gresini (RC213V) 1m 31.208s (41/72)
6. Bradley Smith GBR Monster Yamaha Tech 3 (YZR-M1) 1m 31.397s (77/78)
7. Valentino Rossi ITA Yamaha Factory Racing (YZR-M1) 1m 31.414s (56/57)
8. Andrea Dovizioso ITA Ducati Team (GP13) 1m 31.661s (55/62)
9. Pol Espargaro ESP Monster Yamaha Tech 3 (YZR-M1) 1m 31.836s (66/72)
10. Andrea Iannone ITA Energy T.I. Pramac Racing (GP13) 1m 31.844s (61/68)
11. Cal Crutchlow GBR Ducati Team (GP13) 1m 32.114s (53/53)
12. Michele Pirro ITA Ducati Test Team (GP13) 1m 32.473s (47/65)
13. Nicky Hayden USA Power Electronics Aspar (RCV1000R) 1m 32.576s (76/76)
14. Yonny Hernandez COL Ignite Pramac Racing (GP13) 1m 32.800s (26/27)
15. Aleix Espargaro ESP NGM Forward Racing (FTR-Yamaha M1) 1m 32.847s (17/18)
16. Colin Edwards USA NGM Forward Racing (FTR-Yamaha M1) 1m 33.149s (21/34)
17. Michael Laverty GBR Paul Bird Motorsport (PBM-ART) 1m 33.672s (32/43)
18. Randy de Puniet FRA Paul Bird Motorsport (ART) 1m 33.833s (22/37)
19. Scott Redding GBR Go&Fun Honda Gresini (RCV1000R) 1m 34.541s (22/23)
20. Mike di Meglio FRA Avintia Racing (FTR-Kawasaki) 1m 34.618s (29/42)

Interesting notes–

Marquez, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Bradl all lap under 1:31, starting up where they left off on Sunday.

Dovi testing at ValenciaAfter a full year on the GP13, Andrea Dovizioso is half a second faster than Cal Crutchlow is after one full day.  Nicky Hayden slipped a mere 8/10ths from his qualifying time on the GP13 during his first day on the new Honda lite RCV1000R.  Little Brother Pol Espargaro, riding the Tech 3 satellite Yamaha, beat Big Brother Aleix on the FTR Yamaha  by a full second.  Randy de Puniet shows up out of nowhere and Paul Byrd puts him on the full ART, throwing Michael Laverty back on the so-called PBM-ART, from which Laverty thought he had graduated late last season; the Welshman can’t be too happy about that.  And Hector Barbera, fresh off signing a new two year deal with Avintia Blusens, is too drunk to get on the bike either day, but sober enough to give a gushing interview to the Italian media as to how excited he is by the prospect of finishing 16th most days for the next two years.  Jeesh.

Scott Redding is too banged up to give his new Honda lite a proper whipping.  Valentino Rossi, who unceremoniously threw his faithful and longstanding crew chief Jerry Burgess under the bus last weekend, still finds himself running behind the likes of Bradl, Bautista and satellite Yamaha rider Bradley Smith.  Vale, you’re on the same bike Lorenzo nearly won a third world championship on.  The problem is NOT the crew chief!

Yonny Hernandez, on a factory spec GP13, finds himself running in 14th position.  Wait until he gets the dumbed-down version with the second rate software.  At least he’ll still have the pleasure of getting to burn out a dozen engines during the season, while Crazy Joe Iannone will have to settle for five engines and a fighting chance to run in Q2s and finish in the top ten at some tracks.

 

Captain America - 1969

This picture of Peter Fonda doing his Captain America bit from Easy Rider  is appropos of nothing, but there’s no editors at Motorcycle.com to take it down.  Gotta love that!  Pretty sure the crack about Barbera being drunk wouldn’t have made it through, either.

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Marc Marquez–2013 MotoGP Champion

November 10, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  An edited version of this story will appear on Motorcycle.com later today.  Until then, please enjoy the raw copy. 

With 13 points separating defending world champion Jorge Lorenzo and rookie challenger Marc Marquez heading into the 2013 finale in Valencia, the tension leading up to the race couldn’t have been cut with a machete.  Unforced falls by leaders in the Moto2 and Moto3 tilts served as a reminder that, as Yogi Berra once observed, “it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”  When it was over, however, Yamaha icon Lorenzo had won the race and handed over his crown to Repsol Honda’s boy wonder Marquez.  It feels like the beginning of a new era in grand prix racing. 

Final Podium of 2013-2

To take his third title in the last four years, Lorenzo needed a win and a load of bad karma to befall Marquez.  Winning, as it turned out, wouldn’t be a problem, as he had the pace all weekend while Marquez was in an uncharacteristic risk-aversion mode.  Lorenzo’s strategy early in the race was to take the lead, slow the pace, and see if mayhem might arise behind him.  Instead, he found himself in a cage match with Repsol #2 Dani Pedrosa, who had been dispatched by his team with orders to harass and annoy Lorenzo.  As a result, the first ten laps of the race were as good as it gets in motorsports.

At the start, the two Japanese factory teams got away at the front, with Lorenzo and Pedrosa playing grab-ass while Marquez lay back slightly, bracing for an expected assault from Yamaha #2 Valentino Rossi, whose job was to attack Marquez and, hopefully, force him into a king-sized mistake.  Five separate times during the first seven laps, Lorenzo and Pedrosa exchanged positions twice, as Pedrosa would go through on Lorenzo and Lorenzo would immediately return the favor.  Meanwhile, Rossi, pedaling as hard as he could, was unable to mount the slightest challenge to Marquez, abandoning his teammate to the usual Repsol double-team.  [In his first year back from two purgatorial seasons with Ducati, The Doctor has officially been demoted to The Physician’s Assistant.  One hopes he gets out of the game before becoming The Registered Nurse.]

Lap 10 was decisive.  Pedrosa had gotten in front of Lorenzo once again, and the now-desperate Mallorcan dove inside hard enough to prompt an examination from Race Direction, pushing Pedrosa way wide and allowing Marquez to take the lead, with the ever-dangerous Alvaro Bautista, onboard the GO&FUN Gresini Honda, sneaking briefly into third place as Pedrosa re-entered in sixth.  Lorenzo and Marquez then traded passes late in the lap and again for the last time on Lap 11.  Rossi and Pedrosa went though on Bautista on Lap 12.  Pedrosa, with Lorenzo’s tire tracks on both sides of his leathers, passed Rossi for the last time on Lap 14, and was shown a little respect by Marquez on Lap 27, who sat up to allow him back into second place, cementing the final order of finish.

Lorenzo’s Pyrrhic victory displayed once again the heart of a champion, while Marquez’ well-considered third place result evidenced intelligence and coachability.  Having won the last three races of the season, two of which were contested at very Honda-friendly tracks, Lorenzo demonstrated that Yamaha’s new magic gearbox has decidedly leveled the field.  Thus, my coronation of Marquez as the inevitable ruler of the next decade appears to be somewhat premature.  Certainly, the next few seasons promise some epic duels between the two Spaniards, with Pedrosa and Rossi filling the undercards until they decide to hang up their leathers and call it a career.

2013 Valencia Top Ten Finishers

Valencia 2013 Top Ten

2014 Starts Tomorrow

Top tier team testing for next season begins tomorrow at Ricardo Tormo, although Yamaha will not take the track until Tuesday.  Cal Crutchlow, who crashed out of fifth position today, climbs aboard the Ducati Desmosedici for the first of what promises to be two years of well-paid ineptitude.  His former and now new teammate Andrea Dovizioso seemed at some point to lose interest in dragging the big red bike so far behind the leaders, having earned 81 points in the first half of the season and 59 thereafter.  Crutchlow’s place on the Monster Tech 3 team will be taken by Pol Espragaro, who graduates from Moto2 with the 2013 trophy in his mitts.

Brit Scott Redding, who finished the Moto2 season in second place, joins Alvaro Bautista on the Gresini team with one of the new production Honda RCV1000Rs beneath him, and will benefit from the extra horsepower that comes with it.  Both Nicky Hayden and Hiro Aoyama will go to work tomorrow for the Aspar team, also riding the new Honda lite machine, with current riders Aleix Espargaro defecting to NGM Forward Racing to join Colin Edwards on Yamaha-powered hybrids, and Randy de Puniet slinking off to the Suzuki factory to test their anticipated 2015 entry for a year.  The Pramac junior Ducati team will retain Andrea Iannone on factory equipment and Yonny Hernandez on a spec version, with “The Seven Circles of Hell” embroidered on his leathers.  We’ll have to wait and see what transpires closer to the bottom of the premier class food chain.

A Thriller at Moto3 

The Moto3 race today was an object lesson for those of us who turn up our noses at the youngsters on the little bikes.  Three Spanish kids—Luis Salom, Alex Rins and Maverick Vinales—lined up at the start understanding this was a rare “winner take all” occasion.  Getting off cleanly from the front row, all three attacked the 24 laps of the Ricardo Tomo circuit, with Vinales and Salom taking turns in the lead, and young Rins sitting in third.  Unaccountably, on lap 15 Salom lost the front and slid unmolested into the kitty litter, leaving Vinales and Rins to slug it out for the title.  With four laps left, the riders dropped their gloves and started throwing hooks and haymakers, every turn contested, the gap separating them measured in hundredths of seconds.

Almost as if it were scripted, it came down to the final turn on the final lap, with Rins going through, running a tiny bit wide, and leaving the door ajar for Vinales, who eased through and won the sprint to the flag.  Vinales graduates to Moto2 next season, while Rins appears destined to remain in Moto3 for another year, where he is expected to contest the championship with teammate Alex Marquez on the way to their expected Moto2 debuts in 2015.  With Suzuki and now Aprilia having announced their intentions to re-enter the premier class fray in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and speculation rampant as to whom will pilot the new factory bikes, Vinales, Rins and Marquez the Younger would appear to be logical suspects.  By then, one of the three may have replaced Dani Pedrosa on the Repsol Honda and a second received the baton from Valentino Rossi on the factory Yamaha.

A Final Word on the 2013 Season

Aside from Marquez’ brilliance, no discussion of the past year can take place without mention of Lorenzo’s two injurious crashes in the Netherlands and Germany or Pedrosa’s ruinous accident at the Sachsenring.  Last year, in anticipation of Marquez joining the premier class, we found an appropriate quote from Rudyard Kipling with which to close our season’s work.  This year, we sacrifice literary elegance for down-home wisdom, and turn to the late Don Meredith, the hilarious quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys back in the day.  It was Meredith who observed, “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, wouldn’t it be a merry Christmas?”

christmas-candy-bark2

Enjoy the off-season, be well, and please join us here again next spring for more MotoGP news and analysis.  On time and on the money.

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MotoGP Valencia: Thirty Laps to a Title

November 4, 2013

MotoGP Valencia 2013 Preview, by Bruce Allen.  

See the edited article on Motorcycle.com later this week.

Lorenzo - MarquezFor the first time since 2006, and only the second time in over two decades, the fast movers of MotoGP head to the season finale with a championship on the line.  Against all odds, Yamaha mullah and defending champion Jorge Lorenzo has a puncher’s chance of repeating, the first rider to do so since teammate Valentino Rossi in 2008 and 2009.  The problem facing Lorenzo:  Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquezwho, at age 20, looks ready to dominate the premier class for the next decade.

Lorenzo’s mission this weekend is to blow away the field, win going away, and hope that something, or someone, causes Marquez to finish worse than fourth.  With 13 points in hand, fourth or better gives Marquez the title, regardless of Lorenzo’s result.  And while “on any given Sunday” undoubtedly applies to MotoGP, the oddsmakers currently have Marquez at 1 to 5 and Lorenzo at 5 to 1.  Clearly, the betting world sees Marquez seizing the first of his many titles this weekend in Valencia.

Marquez, the 20 year old Catalan, has dominated the discussion this season, with a rookie campaign that has thoroughly eclipsed those of the current and former Aliens.  Neither Rossi, Lorenzo, Casey Stoner or Marquez’ hard luck teammate Dani Pedrosa, as rookies, came within 100 points of what Marquez has already achieved this year.  He has set rookie records for points, poles, and wins, and probably a dozen others.  He has walked away from a number of crashes that would have put other riders in traction; in this regard, he seems overtly blessed.  His baby-faced good looks mask the heart of a champion and the competitive constitution of a honey badger.

Back in the day when I was clearing the bases playing slow-pitch softball, one of my more annoying teammates used to taunt the opposition with the sing-song chant “it hurts with two out, don’t it?”  Come-from-behind wins aren’t just wins; they are spirit-breaking insults that give opponents the sense that no lead is safe.  Of Marquez’ six wins thus far in 2013, most have come late in the day, giving the impression that he enjoys loafing near the front until his fuel load drops, and lowers the demoralizing boom on the leaders only when it suits him.  As if he’s playing a game of cat-and-mouse at 200 mph, toying with his opponents.  The truth is, absent a ridiculous gaffe by his team at Phillip Island which got him DQ’ed, he would have already clinched the title, and this weekend’s tilt would be another meaningless Valencian ring around the rosey.

Recent History at Valencia – Bah!

I’m not going to bother rehashing the past few years of the season finale, as this year’s race is fundamentally different from the last few.  A great deal of the chatter in cyberspace this week has centered on the roles to be played by each team’s #2 rider—Valentino Rossi on the Yamaha and Dani Pedrosa on the Honda.  Conspiracy theories abound, with a number of vicious suggestions out there regarding what Rossi should do to Marquez and/or what Pedrosa is likely to do to Lorenzo.

rossi-winning-at-brnoThe sole fact supporting these shameful ideas is that the riders have no fear of earning any laughable MotoGP “points on the license” in the last round of the season.  Fans of the two combatants might enjoy entertaining such thoughts, but they truly range from the ridiculous to the sublime.  These men have known each other for years, and will have relationships for decades into the future.  There is no real chance that anyone on the grid is going to intentionally sabotage either Lorenzo or Marquez.  Sure, accidents happen in the heat of battle, but in truth none of the other top ten riders on the grid has much skin in the game at this point.

It pleases me to observe that Jorge Lorenzo and I have something in common these days.  His approach to the Gran Premio Generali de la Comunitat Valenciana is the same as my plan for retirement:  work like a dog and hope for the best.  The odds of Marquez and Lorenzo actually tangling the way they did at Jerez and again at Sepang are remote, as Marquez has nothing to gain and everything to lose by engaging in handlebar-to-handlebar combat with the Mallorcan.  One should expect Marquez to avoid contact with anyone on Sunday, with the possible exception of Alvaro Bautista who, earlier this year and in years past, had a tendency to get over-excited when running up front and inadvertently taking an Alien or two out with him.

What to Expect This Weekend

Simply stated, look for Lorenzo to follow what has become his only strategy of late, jumping out to as large a lead as possible and hanging on for dear life as the Repsol Hondas try to track him down. I envision Marquez shooting for third place, allowing teammate Pedrosa to go after Lorenzo if he so chooses, and staying clear of the inevitable Valentino Rossi in fourth place. Marquez will only need to up his pace in the event the Italian feels like mixing it up, and while this possibility exists, Marquez has had the pace all year to put down a vapor trail and leave the aging Rossi gasping in his wake.

Despite its reputation as a sun-drenched Mediterranean paradise, Valencia can be kind of English countryside this time of year, and Lorenzo in the rainweather, of all things, could play a part in the weekend’s festivities. The forecast for Friday through Sunday calls for highs in the mid-50’s, lows in the low 40’s, with the chance for rain ranging between 30% and 60% all three days. A wet race or, perish the thought, a flag-to-flag affair could easily throw a spanner into Marquez’ works. It has been observed elsewhere that Marquez is not a strong in the wet as he is on slicks. How ironic would it be that a season dominated by youth and injuries could be decided by something as mundane as the proverbial rain in Spain.

One of my many failings covering this sport is the complete lack of attention I pay to the lower classes. This weekend, however, I intend to make an exception, because the Moto3 race on Sunday promises to be epic. The three leaders—Luis Salom, Maverick Vinales and Alex Rins (teammate of Alex Marquez, Marc’s hermanito)—are all young Spaniards, all riding KTM machinery, and are separated in the standings by a mere five points. As interesting as the MotoGP race promises to be, the Moto3 tilt should be one for the ages. Unless your cable provider offers more channels than mine, you’ll have a hard time finding the Moto3 race on TV.

The MotoGP race goes off at 8 am Eastern Standard Time. So far, I’m not finding it on Fox Sports 1. Rest assured, however, that we’ll have results of the Grand Prix of Valencia, and the entire 2013 season, right here on Sunday afternoon.

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Posted in Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, MotoGP, MotoGP Valencia, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News | 3 Comments »

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