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MotoGP Brno 2013 Preview

August 22, 2013

Marc Marquez looking for four in a row 

Fresh off his fantasy weekend at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, rookie Marc Marquez leads Repsol Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa and the rest of the grid to eastern Europe for the bwin Grand Prix České republiky.  Between 2007 and 2011 the winner here went on to win the premier class championship.  Pedrosa put an end to all that last year, edging eventual factory Yamaha champion Jorge Lorenzo by 2/10ths of a second.  Will the race revert to its historical pattern in 2013? Captain America - 2013

Now that Marquez has established himself as a legitimate title threat in his first premier class season—how crazy is that?—let’s take a moment to review his year-to-date performance.  Other than Assen, where he lost by two seconds to a resurrected Valentino Rossi, he has won at the tracks where the Honda RC213V thrives—Austin, the Sachsenring, Laguna Seca and Indianapolis.  At Jerez, he lost to Pedrosa by 2+ seconds, back when he was still deferential to his veteran garagemate.  He took thirds at Losail, Le Mans and Catalunya, all of which are Yamaha-friendly layouts.

Brno is generally considered to favor the Yamaha, with few first-gear turns.  But Honda has taken the last two Czech rounds, and Marquez has thrived here, too, with a win and a razor-thin second place in two Moto2 tries.  Were it not for Honda’s “magic box” transmission, Brno this year would appear to be a toss-up.  (This is like speculating how a bullfrog might fare if he had wings.)  One thing is certain—both Pedrosa and Lorenzo are going to push to the max to keep the rookie behind them this weekend.  Otherwise, we’ll soon be talking about the magic number for Marquez to clinch the title.

Recent History at Brno 

Back in 2009, Lorenzo crashed out of the lead, leaving the win to Rossi, followed at some distance by Pedrosa, with Toni Elias—remember him?—a distant 3rd on the Gresini Honda.  Lorenzo had 4 DNFs that year and still managed second place.  Rossi, who crashed only once—at Indianapolis—won the 2009 title by 45 points.  A 16 year-old Marquez drove his 125cc KTM scooter to a run-of-the-mill 8th place finish at Brno that year.  At age 16, many of us were just earning our licenses; Marquez already had corporate sponsors.

Recall 2010.  Lorenzo’s first championship season featured an easy win at Brno over Pedrosa, with Stoner in 3rd on the Ducati, having put Ben Spies away late in the day.  Rossi, still recovering from leg and shoulder injuries suffered in a cold tire wreck at Mugello early in the season, finished 5th.  The 148,000 fans held their breath when Andrea Dovizioso, piloting the factory Honda, went lowside, leaving him standing on the tarmac facing riders coming directly at him in 5th gear.  Although he avoided getting creamed, his second off a few laps later ended his day.  17 year-old Marquez, on a 125cc Derbi, had one of his worst outings of the season, finishing 7th, but went on to win the title anyway.

In 2011Casey Stoner won easily for Honda, demolishing the field after Pedrosa left the premises.  Dovizioso came in 2nd, followed by Marco Simoncelli, Lorenzo, and Ben Spies, back when Spies had a bright future.  Pedrosa crashed out of the lead early, after qualifying on the pole, with the fastest bike in the joint (cue the music, from Pink Floyd’s Momentary Lapse of Reason.)  Stoner would win the title that year.  Marquez, having moved up to Moto2, lost by 16/100ths of a second to Italian Andrea Iannone in a vintage Moto2 race to the flag.

2012 saw Pedrosa “pip” Lorenzo by 18/100ths, one of Pedrosa’s finest races ever.  Yamaha qualified four bikes in the top five, but Pedrosa out-dueled the series leader in a fantastic last lap to remain in the conversation for the 2012 title. (It would prove to be a short stay, as he crashed out the following round at Misano.)  At Brno, however, he wrecked my theme for this week, that whoever wins at Brno wins the championship.  Lorenzo would repeat in 2012, despite Pedrosa taking six of the last eight rounds.  Marquez, still a teenager, won a thriller in Moto2, barely edging Thomas Luthi who, in turn, nosed out Pol Espargaro, who punked Iannone, the top four riders finishing barely half a second apart.  (If the premier class could conjure up that kind of action at the front, attendance across the globe would double.)

A Season on the Brink

Watching young Marquez seize the attention of the motorcycle racing world has got to be a hard thing for Jorge Lorenzo.  A double world champion, at age 26, Lorenzo should be sitting on top of the heap, in his prime, the top dog for the iconic Yamaha racing brand.  Yet here he is, his body injured and his pride wounded, perhaps wondering if he’s won his last title.  He came out in the media this week sounding impatient, stating for maybe the first time his opinion that Yamaha needs to expedite the move to their own magic transmission, that they can’t really compete with the Hondas at this point.  A true company man and Yamaha loyalist, he must really be feeling the pressure to level even veiled criticism at his Japanese masters.

And as hard as it may be for Lorenzo, imagine what it’s like being Dani Pedrosa in the summer of 2013.  Early in the season, it appeared this would be his year; time, finally, for his first premier class title after years of distinguished service and too many surgeries to count.  Though he will only turn 28 next month, he’s an old 28, with the scars to prove it.  When you see him, unaware that the cameras are on him, he looks dejected, scowling, downcast.  In a scant four months he has gone from being the alpha male at the top factory team in the game to simply Marc Marquez’ teammate.  In the garage area at Indianapolis at noon on Sunday, the crowd assembled outside the Repsol garage vanished as soon as Marquez came out, jumped on his scooter, and headed off for lunch, with Pedrosa still inside.

You can’t really blame Pedrosa for feeling cursed.  As good as he is, he’s had to deal with Rossi, Stoner and Lorenzo his whole career, and now Marquez.  Scott Redding is coming up next year, and looks to be a load with 1000ccs under him.  And teenagers Alex Marquez, Marc’s little brother, and his buddy Alex Rins are getting it together in Moto3, heading for Moto2 and MotoGP in a few years.

There’s simply no relief in sight for Dani Pedrosa.  The guy can’t catch a break.

Brazil to Join Argentina in 2014

Carmelo Ezpeleta, the Big Cheese at Dorna, left Indianapolis on Sunday evening and flew to Brazil, where he held a press conference to announce that there will be not one, but two, rounds in South America beginning next season.  The Brazilian GP will have to await FIM homologation—if you don’t know, don’t ask—before it’s official, but it sounds like a done deal, which is great.  The announcement does raise the question as to which venues will get booted off the schedule, now that Indianapolis is certain for next year.  Certainly, one of the Spanish rounds is likely to go away.  If I had to guess, I’d suspect the German Grand Prix might go on hiatus, as the Sachsenring is out in the middle of nowhere and most of the riders dislike both the circuit and the food.

The Czech Grand Prix lifts off at 7 am Eastern time in the United States on Sunday.  Fox Sports 1 is the new home of MotoGP on TV, but has not yet released their broadcast schedule for that day.  We will have race results here later on Sunday.

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MotoGP Indianapolis 2013 Preview

August 12, 2013

Three races, three weeks, three contenders 

Repsol Honda mighty mite Dani Pedrosa was quoted last week as saying he thought the 2013 MotoGP championship would be decided in the next three rounds.  His teammate, rookie Marc Marquez, sits squarely in the driver’s seat, leading Pedrosa by 16 points and factory Yamaha stud Jorge Lorenzo by an imposing 26.  Should young Marquez avoid DNFs over the next three weeks and record a win or two, the 2013 title appears to be his for the taking. 

Recent History at Indianapolis 

Though the race winners at Indy since 2008 haven’t been terribly surprising, the podiums have usually hosted at least one dark horse.  During the inaugural race in 2008, Yamaha mullah Valentino Ross, at his peak, methodically tracked down then Repsol Honda pilot and local fave Nicky Hayden during Hurricane Ike in a race that was ultimately red-flagged due to the weather.  Indy that year was one of Hayden’s two podium appearances, with third place going to Rossi’s rookie teammate Jorge Lorenzo.

Rossi looked ready to repeat in 2009 until an ill-advised crash on Lap 9 handed the win to Lorenzo.  In August of 2009, Rossi had the championship title in the bag, and could have easily coasted to a podium finish.  Instead, he went balls to the wall, his usual style, and left the door ajar for Lorenzo, the eventual 2009 runner-up.  Joining Lorenzo on the podium in 2009 were Alex de Angelis on a satellite Honda and homeboy Hayden on the Ducati Desmosedici.  For both de Angelis and Hayden, Indianapolis marked their only podium appearance of 2009.

The mid-American weirdness continued in 2010, as Dani Pedrosa won on a brutally hot day, joined on the podium by Monster Tech 3 Yamaha polesitter Ben Spies and Lorenzo, who lost the battle that day but would win the war and his first world championship later that year.  In August of 2010, Spies’ future could not have looked any brighter.  He started on the pole and gave Pedrosa all he wanted that day, during a week that saw him anointed as the next factory Yamaha star for 2011-12.

[In retrospect, this was probably the high water mark of Spies’ MotoGP career, despite his stunning win in Assen the following season.  Since 2010, Spies has gone from The Great American Hope to a historical footnote, working his way down from factory Yamaha, to satellite Ducati, to completely irrelevant this year.  He returns to the fray this week after missing the last seven races, and figures to be looking for work in 2014.  Spies is articulate, thoughtful and self-effacing, but his MotoGP career is circling the bowl.  We wish him well.]

Pedrosa’s win in 2010 marked the first of three consecutive wins at Indy for the factory Honda team, as Casey Stoner cruised to victory in 2011 and Pedrosa repeated last year, again in brutally hot conditions.  Indianapolis is, without question, a highly Honda-friendly track, with the tight infield portion having much more to do with who wins than the orgasmic long main straight bisected by the start/finish line.  During the last two races, the podiums have become somewhat more predictable, as it was Stoner-Lorenzo-Andrea Dovizioso (on the Repsol Honda) in 2011 and Pedrosa-Lorenzo-Dovizioso (on the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha) last year.

My sole prediction for Sunday:  Andrea Dovizioso will not appear anywhere near the podium.  Take that to the bank.

Marc Marquez:  Best Rookie Ever?

Crash.net speculated this past week that Marc Marquez may be the best premier class rookie ever.  While our crack Research Department mulls that one over, I would be reluctant to argue the point.  In my 2013 season preview, I had him figured for 4th place this year, with eight podiums, two wins, 4 DNFs, and 220 points for the season.

Should Marquez extend his performance thus far over the second half, he would finish with six wins, two DNFs, 14 podiums, 326 points and a world championship.  Which would virtually duplicate his 2012 season in Moto2.  And he appears fresh as a daisy, none the worse for wear, compared to his main rivals Pedrosa and Lorenzo, both of whom are amongst the walking wounded.

We know three things on this subject as the second half of the season gets underway.  The Repsol Honda likes hot weather, the hotter the better.  Marquez, for whatever reason, seems to perform better in the second half of seasons than the first.  And, he is greatly familiar with pretty much every circuit left on the 2013 calendar.  (This last point is rather moot, in that he won both times he’s confronted a track for the first time, at Austin and Laguna Seca.)

Marquez simply doesn’t ride like a rookie.  His balance and reflexes are incomparable, Stoneresque, God-given gifts; he appears to be doing what he was put on Earth to do.  Now that we have virtually guaranteed his first coronation this year, it remains to be seen whether the Motorcycle.com jinx will rear up to bite him on the bum (paging Cal Crutchlow.)  If not, fans need to get ready for a decade or so of watching him effortlessly win races, championships, and the hearts of Spanish racing fans.

The world appears to be his oyster.

The Yamaha Magic Gearbox 

Our friend David Emmett over at MotoMatters.com is convinced Yamaha was using their version of the seamless shift gearbox during the recent private testing sessions held at Brno.  By measuring oscilloscope readings of sound recordings made trackside, he deduces that the “magic gearbox” decreases shifting time for the Yamaha YZR-M1 by some 143% compared to the conventional version.  This enhancement is significantly less than that provided by the Honda box, but still represents a major improvement.

Apparently, some reliability concerns remain, as there has been no announcement of a change in equipment for the Yamaha factory bikes as yet.  But Big Blue needs to get this system installed sooner rather than later, as the Honda RC213V is clearly superior at tracks with lots of low-gear turns, i.e., Austin, Laguna Seca and, most likely, Indianapolis.  Marquez and Pedrosa are going to be fast everywhere they go, whereas Lorenzo and Rossi need to dominate at tracks like Losail and Aragon and hold on for dear life at the tight, slower circuits.

[As things now stand, Ducati Corse hopes to have their version of the magic gearbox ready to go in time for the 2036 season, while the sober folks at Suzuki profess no belief in magic at all.  The riders who will be testing this stuff for the two B-level factories haven’t actually been born yet.  Just sayin’.]

Great Expectations

If you look up the word “optimist” in the dictionary, you’ll likely find a wildcard rider discussing his chances in an upcoming MotoGP tilt.  This time, it’s Blake Young, last seen trashing his Attack Performance APR Kawasaki bucket at Laguna Seca, along with one James Rispoli, who will be making his Moto2 debut in Indy with the GPTech team on a Tech 3 frame.  Such competition reminds me of a garage band entering a Battle of the Bands against Tom Petty, John Mellencamp and R.E.M..

Give the guys credit for showing up.  While you’re at it, please support their sponsors, who could likely get a better return on their investments tossing wads of $100 bills out of a helicopter.

Finally!  Your Weekend Forecast 

Indianapolis has enjoyed a remarkably temperate summer, and it looks to continue this weekend.  Skies are forecast to be fair, with temps in the high 70’s and low 80’s.  As this is probably your last chance to see MotoGP at the IMS; if you can come to town for the race, please do so.  (Next year you’ll have to travel to Argentina.)

As of this weekend, Fox Sports 1 will be the new home of MotoGP on TV.  Live coverage of all three classes starts Sunday at 11 am Eastern, with the big bikes going off at 2 pm.  We’ll have MotoGP results right here on Sunday evening.

 

 

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MotoGP 2012 Valencia Results

November 11, 2012

An edited version of this article, complete with hi-rez photos, will appear on Motorcycle.com today or tomorrow.  Until then, enjoy the raw version here.

Dani Pedrosa wins for the seventh time to close out 2012 

The Gran Premio Generali de la Communitat Valenciana got underway today in the worst weather conditions possible for MotoGP racing—half wet and half dry.  20 minutes before the start, the 22 crews were going completely mental, trying to decide whether to send their guys out on slicks, rain tires, or perhaps one of each.  The resulting demolition derby left eight riders licking their wounds in garages and provided perhaps the strangest podium of the year. 

Valencia was the fourth race of the season in which the rostrum featured the two Repsol Honda pilots, Pedrosa and the retiring Casey Stoner, flanking a factory Yamaha rider.  In each of the previous three—Jerez, Estroril and Laguna Seca—that rider was Jorge Lorenzo, who was today gunning for his 17th podium of the season.  Having clinched the 2012 championship last time out in Australia, it was the only goal left for him today, but it was a biggie, an all-timer that might have stood for years.  Today, however, the man in second place was Katsuyuki Nakasuga, the factory test rider assigned to take the injured Ben Spies’ seat for the finale.

To understand how this came to pass, we direct your attention to the fourth sentence of our preview article of Round One in Qatar back in April:

For the first time ever, the high fliers of MotoGP will be overtaking slower CRT bikes in the turns during the second half of races.  Courting disaster, if you ask me.

On Lap 14 today, race leader Lorenzo came up on the rear of the Paul Byrd Motorsports nag beneath James Ellison who, heading into the race, held 28 points, a complete non-factor all season, having already lost his seat for 2013 to “rider unknown, just not James Ellison.”  It appeared that Ellison was unaware of the major presence behind him, as he failed to yield and held his line in the turn, forcing Lorenzo to brake hard, move off the dry line, wobble furiously, and go airborne in a violent high side that ended his day and hopes of securing a spot in MotoGP history.  With Lorenzo in the gravel, Ellison plodded on, apparently unaware of the disaster he had just been involved in, only to come this close to repeating it two laps later with the new race leader, Pedrosa, who somehow managed to save his bike and day. 

 Cluster at the Start 

If you look up “mass confusion” in the dictionary, you’ll likely find a picture of the grid of today’s race, with the caption, “Pandemonium reigns at the start of a grand prix motorcycle race.”  Most of the riders chose rain tires for the start, with the notable exceptions of factory Yamaha riders Lorenzo and Nakasuga and rookie Stefan Bradl.  Four riders—Pedrosa, Crutchlow, Nicky Hayden and Alvaro Bautista—entered pit lane after the sighting lap to change bikes, preferring to start from there on slicks rather than from the grid on wets.  To illustrate the scale of disorder, the race leaders at the end of lap one, all on wet tires, were:

  1. CRT champ Aleix Espargaro
  2. Yamaha Tech 3 refugee Andrea Dovizioso
  3. Casey Stoner
  4. Lame duck Ducati icon Valentino Rossi, and
  5. Bradl, on the LCR Honda

The riders electing slicks gambled and won; the track dried fairly quickly, and the downpour forecast for later in the afternoon held off until the race had ended.   One by one, riders entered pit lane to ditch their wets in favor of slicks, with all losing at least 25 seconds and some as much as 40 in the process.  As these issues were getting sorted out, the crashing began:

  • Ducati’s Nicky Hayden, lap 3.
  • Avintia Blusens’ Ivan Silva, lap 3.
  • CRT back bencher Roberto Rolfo, lap 7.
  • Stefan Bradl, lap 10, making it six Valencia GPs in a row that he has failed to finish.
  • Lorenzo on lap 14
  • Pramac Ducati’s Hectic Hector Barbera, lap 17.
  • Claudio Corti, slated for a full time ride in 2013 for NGM Forward Racing, lap 18; and, finally,
  • Crutchlow, who crashed out of second place, lap 23.  Seems like Cal is most likely to crash out of races when he’s in the top three spots; guy needs to learn how to handle success a little better.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Nakasuga, visibly overwhelmed at the podium celebration and post-race press conference, had qualified in 16th place, about as expected, but followed teammate Lorenzo’s example at the start by choosing slicks.  Despite instructions from the brass not to trash the bike, he found himself somehow running in the top three, and keeping up nicely, by lap five.  Once Lorenzo and Crutchlow had left the building, he had second place pretty much to himself, providing the feel-good moment of the year.

Stoner, who fell to 16th place changing bikes, got his rhythm and began overtaking the field, eventually going through on Bautista’s San Carlo Honda on lap 29 for a fitting podium finish in his last outing.  Being Stoner, he had been quoted earlier in the weekend as “not being happy with the new tarmac.”  We will all miss his racing; I, for one, will not miss his incessant whining and complaining.  At the end of the race, we saw his pit board, which read “GONE FISHING.”  If the fish aren’t biting, I fully expect to see Casey quoted in the New South Wales paper complaining about his tackle and bait.

Michele Pirro, on his way to being evicted from the #2 seat at San Carlo Gresini, enjoyed a bit of paying forward by finishing sixth today, the best ever finish for a CRT bike.  Take THAT, Fausto.  Andrea Dovizioso, on his Tech 3 Yamaha for the last time, and Karel Abraham, likewise on his satellite Ducati for the last time, were the only other riders to finish on the lead lap.

Valentino Rossi, riding as the #1 factory Ducati rider for the last time, described the Circuit Ricardo Tormo this week as a “Mickey Mouse circuit.”  After qualifying in 11th place and finishing today’s race tenth, more than a lap down, I would have to describe his as a Minnie Mouse effort.  It’s hard to conclude that Rossi didn’t quit on his team today, and it appears he has also helped Filippo Preziosi lose his job as technical director at Ducati.

And So It Goes

MotoGP underwent a great deal of change this year, with more in store going forward, in the way of rules, riders, teams, and circuits.  The Next Great Rider, teenager Marc Marquez, moves up to take Casey Stoner’s seat on the Repsol Honda team starting Tuesday.  Marquez has millions of fans and almost as many critics of his aggressive riding style.  He won today’s Moto2 race after starting from the back of the grid, thanks to a close encounter with Simone Corsi on Friday.

Marquez will inject new life into the premier class, and appears ready to challenge for Alien status sooner rather than later.  To his critics, and to bring our coverage of MotoGP to a close for another year, we offer up a bit of Rudyard Kipling, from his poem entitled “If”:

“If you can keep your head when all about you

Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;

…Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,

And – which is more – you’ll be a Man my son!”

                             — Rudyard Kipling

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MotoGP 2012 Phillip Island Results

October 28, 2012

An edited, slightly less entertaining version of this article appears on Motorcycle.com.

Stoner wins!  Pedrosa crashes!  Lorenzo clinches! 

In the 41 minutes it took to run the 2012 Australian Grand Prix, a number of pressing questions were resolved.  Would Repsol Honda top gun Casey Stoner be able to make it six wins in a row at his home crib?  Could teammate Dani Pedrosa make it four in a row for 2012?  Would factory Yamaha mullah Jorge Lorenzo pick up the three points on Pedrosa he needed to clinch the 2012 championship?  And, finally, would one of the local wallabies hop through the infield prior to the race as a reminder we were on the other side of the planet?  In order, the answers were:  Yes.  No.  Yes, and Yes. 

In front of 53,000 delirious fans, Casey Stoner, as is his wont, ran away from the field for his sixth consecutive premier class win in Australia.  Being the fastest rider on the fastest bike at the fastest track on the tour, there was little question that Stoner would go out in grand style in front of his homeys.  He was at the top of every single timesheet all weekend and never seriously threatened during the race itself.  Although he didn’t enjoy a great start, he oozed past Lorenzo on a decisive second lap into the lead and ended up winning by some nine seconds.

Want a good definition of the word “dominant”?  Over the last six years at Phillip Island, Casey Stoner led 160 of 162 laps.  Does that constitute perhaps the greatest home field advantage in the history of sports?  Tough question.  But the only good news about Stoner’s impending retirement—I read he’s moving on to automobile racing starting next year—is that someone else will have a chance to stand at the top of the podium next year at Phillip Island.

Pedrosa Finally Cracks

Dani Pedrosa came into the race today needing to make up 23 championship points in two races, an almost impossible task unless Lorenzo were to make some kind of uncharacteristic gaffe.  Despite having won five of the last six races, Pedrosa was unable to gain much ground on his consistent countryman.  As Pedrosa kept winning, and the deficit to Lorenzo shrank ever so slowly, pressure continued to build on the diminutive Spaniard.  Today, it found its release.

Starting from the front row, the three Aliens had good starts, with Stoner settling into third position while his tires warmed up.  Pedrosa put the pedal to the metal (?) and went through on Lorenzo into the lead midway through the first lap.  On lap two, Stoner went through on Lorenzo, and was dogging his teammate when Dani lost the front in a slow, arcing lowside that looked eerily like Simoncelli’s crash last year at Sepang.  Although he was able to re-mount his damaged bike, he entered pit lane moments later, his day, and year, suddenly over.

On the back nine of his MotoGP career at age 27, the brooding, introspective Pedrosa appears to be on his way to becoming one of those eternal runners-up.  Entering today’s race, he, Stoner and Lorenzo each had 44 career wins, a statistical anomaly of the first order.  But Stoner and Lorenzo have now each won two world championships, while Pedrosa has a fourth, three seconds, two thirds and about a pound of titanium plates and screws to show for his efforts since 2006.  I’m reminded of Fran Tarkington and Jim Kelly, both stellar NFL quarterbacks with 0-4 records in Super Bowls.  I’m thinking of Karl Malone, who played second fiddle to Michael Jordan all those years; in terms of championship rings, it ended up Jordan 6, Malone 0.  The difference between being a great athlete and a world champion often comes down to timing, luck, and karma, none of which Pedrosa seems to enjoy to any great degree.

From the Department of Idle Speculation, we believe next season may be his last to capture a world championship.  He will have Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi to deal with on the factory Yamahas—ugh—as  well as his new teammate, Alien-in-waiting Marc Marquez, who himself clinched the Moto2 title today.  Pedrosa should be able to contain Marquez during his rookie season, but the New Kid in Town looks ready to start winning premier class titles sooner rather than later.  And Lorenzo, hard as nails and regular as a piston, is two years younger than Pedrosa, who will turn 30 during the 2014 season.

Winning a title is not going to get any easier for Dani Pedrosa.

Image2012 MotoGP World Champion Jorge Lorenzo

Jorge Lorenzo—First Spanish Double World Champion

As dominant as the Spanish riders in all three classes are these days, it’s surprising to me that Lorenzo is the first to win two premier class titles.  The secrets to his success are, in my opinion, consistency and a crystal clear understanding of what he is capable and incapable of doing on a Yamaha M1.  He has matured greatly since joining the premier class in 2008, and in mid-career is at the top of his game.  Assuming he podiums in Valencia, he will set a new MotoGP record by recording 17 podium finishes in one season.  That, folks, is consistency.

In several respects, Lorenzo’s Yamaha has some disadvantages compared to the Repsol Honda RC213V, most notably the Honda’s superior acceleration coming out of turns.  This is not to say that the factory Yamaha is a tortoise compared to the Repsol hare.  But it does back up the assertion by many knowledgeable MotoGP people that grand prix racing is 80% rider and 20% bike.

Congratulations to Jorge Lorenzo on a stellar 2012.  I’m pretty sure this will not be his last world championship celebration.

Sidebars

Cal Crutchlow, who had failed to finish four of the last six races, spent a lonely, productive day in third place for his second career premier class podium.  His post-race comments about the inadvisability of going after Lorenzo today were a hoot…Andrea Dovizioso spent his day fighting with satellite Honda pilots Stefan Bradl and Alvaro Bautista, finally going through on both simultaneously late in the last lap for a well-earned fourth place finish…Two of the best battles of the day were intra-team affairs.   Valentino Rossi and Nicky Hayden played grab-ass all day long, with Rossi prevailing for another ho-hum seventh place finish.  And Power Electronics’ Aleix Espargaro essentially clinched the imaginary CRT championship by out-racing teammate Randy de Puniet for an 11-point lead heading back to Spain.  De Puniet would have to finish, like, sixth at Valencia for any chance to outpoint his teammate, and THAT’s not going to happen.

On to Valencia

And so the grid heads back to Europe for the annual Valenciana Anti-Climax, with nothing on the line, as usual.  Rather than running another meaningless season-ending parade, I think Dorna should organize Valencia as a series of three lap match race heats, with the winners facing off for a five lap finale:

  • Stoner vs. Lorenzo vs. Pedrosa
  • Crutchlow vs. Dovizioso
  • Hayden vs. Rossi
  • Bautista vs. Bradl
  • Barbera vs. Abraham
  • Espargaro vs. de Puniet

Let the winners of each heat compete for a big cash prize, and start them on the grid in the reverse order of their finishing times in the heats, handicapping the field so even Abraham or de Puniet might have a chance to win.  Something like this, it seems, would be a more interesting way to spend a Sunday afternoon on the Iberian peninsula than watching 21 guys compete for a title that has already been decided.

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MotoGP 2012 Motegi Preview

October 10, 2012

The pressure on Dani Pedrosa grows at Round 15

It is with divided loyalties that MotoGP blows into The Land of the Rising Sun for the first round of its annual three-round Pacific swing.  Fans excited by the prospect of a meaningful final tilt, a Game 7, in Valencia are virtually forced to project bad karma at factory Yamaha numero uno Jorge Lorenzo.  Unless he suffers some major misfortune, it will be almost impossible for him not to clinch the 2012 championship before returning to Spain in November. 

In my half-baked Theory of MotoGP, the numbers are working so hard against Repsol Honda hope Dani Pedrosa that he will be forced to press.  In order to have a thought of knocking off Lorenzo in Valencia, Pedrosa must virtually run the table.  Win three rounds and place at Phillip Island ahead of Lorenzo in third.  Meanwhile, let’s say Lorenzo loafs his way to a second and two thirds heading to Valencia.  A fifth place finish there would close out the title.  However, as many of you continue to remind me, a lot can happen on two wheels at 160 mph.

So, not only must Dani Pedrosa approach perfection for the rest of the year, he must hope for bad luck, i.e., mechanical issues, for Lorenzo.  The resulting pressure to perform, so to speak, is so intense that most riders fold.  Unless Dani Pedrosa is simply faster than everyone out there for the remaining races, he is going to have dogfights coming at him from not only Lorenzo, but teammate Casey Stoner, who has only a handful of races left to cement his legacy, the occasional Valentino Rossi, and the Bobsey twins over at Tech 3 Yamaha, Andrea Dovizioso and Cal Crutchlow.  Think Honda rookie Stefan Bradl wouldn’t like to punk Dani Pedrosa, the legendary Dani Pedrosa, in his award-winning first season?

My half-baked theory closes with the observation that Lorenzo excels at just the type of work he must do for the rest of the year.  Turn consistent, efficient laps, don’t take any extra risks, play the percentages, and take home the 2012 trophy.  Back when he first came up, he was reckless, impatient and headstrong, and spent a lot of time in hospitals.  These days, he has matured and mostly overcome his Latin excitability.  Lorenzo might not have won the title had Casey Stoner remained healthy all year.  But then, as they say, if bullfrogs could fly, they wouldn’t bump their asses so often, either.

Recent History at Motegi

2009 was the year of Fiat Yamaha domination, and it was on display at Motegi that April. Lorenzo edged Rossi by a second ahead of Pedrosa, Stoner and Dovizioso.  The race that year was early in the season, too early to provide any sense of direction as to how it might proceed from there.  How it proceeded was with Rossi easily winning his 9th overall title and 7th in the premier class.

In 2010, Pedrosa crashed hard in practice when his throttle stuck open, fracturing his collarbone and basically handing the 2010 title to Jorge Lorenzo.  Casey Stoner drove his Ducati to the win, followed by Dovizioso, Rossi and Lorenzo.

In 2011, Rossi crashed out early on his Ducati, leaving the way open for Pedrosa to cruise to an easy win.  He was followed to the flag by Lorenzo and Stoner, who completed the podium.  In the best run of the day, Marco Simoncelli piloted his Gresini Honda to fourth place, sneaking past Dovizioso and his factory Honda by 14/100ths of a second at the flag.

Home for Honda

Motegi is without question home to Honda Racing Corporation; the oval ring was built by the Honda car people in order to figure out how to run on Indy Car ovals.  The road layout, a series of hairpin turns connecting a handful of mini-straights, puts a premium on corner exit speed, at which the RC213V excels.  Not a place where you spend a lot of time at top speed, if you ever hit it at all.  In short, a place where Honda should dominate.

But they don’t.  Over the past six years each of the big three manufacturers has won twice here.  Given the standings, I think Pedrosa and Stoner may manage to get away from Lorenzo and the Yamahas on Sunday.  Lorenzo will want to finish on the podium, but not in any particular position.  Just showing up in the top three every week will make Pedrosa’s job virtually impossible. Finally, I can’t wait to hear Casey Stoner complaining about stuff again.  To think I actually missed a month of his rants.  What will next year be like?

Musical Chairs in CRT Land

Rider news at the lower reaches of the MotoGP food chain.  Ivan Silva, rudely dismissed by Avintia Blusens earlier in the year, was warmly welcomed back after the team had watched his replacement, David Salom, pedal around Aragon and Misano, with only a DNF and a 15th to show for his trouble…Aleix Espargaro and Randy de Puniet re-upped with their successful Power Electronics Aspar team for another season, after trouncing their CRT competitors and occasionally putting it to the likes of Karel Abraham and Hector Barbera in 2012.

SpeedTV.com reported former Moto2 rider Roberto Rolfo will replace Mattia Pasini on the Speed Master ART machine…Team Yamaha announced it is bringing back factory test rider and fan fave Katsuyuki Nakasuga for another weekend of racing.  The KatMan has amassed 11 championship points during the past two MotoGP campaigns doing hometown cameos and emergency fill-ins.

News from Deep In the Heart

Circuit of the Americas (COTA) announced recently that they will be filling one of the two April holes on the provisional 2013 calendar with the inaugural…what?  Texas Grand Prix?  Another U.S. Grand Prix, This One in Texas?  Anyway, the event, the first of a ten year deal, kicks off the weekend of April 21.  It will be interesting to see how the art of racetrack design has improved over the last generation.

The other hole in the provisional calendar occurs the preceding weekend, in what is expected to become Round Two.  If you believe what you read, that event will end up being held in Argentina, India or Portugal. Any such an arrangement would produce another hellish week of travel.  If nothing gets worked out, there will be a bit of an early season holiday, after Round One in Qatar.

MotoGP needs fewer press conferences announcing new locations, and more new locations.  Argentina and India would be sensational markets for this sport, which is heavily Euro-centric at a time when European economies are struggling.  A third U.S. round is great, as the U.S. is fertile turf for grand prix racing.  A new country, and a venue that could hold 150,000 fans on Sunday, would be exactly what this sport needs.

Let’s Not Even Bother with the Weather

Am I the only one who misses having the Rizla Suzuki team in the house?

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MotoGP 2012 Indianapolis Preview

August 14, 2012

An edited version of this article, and some  fab high-rez images, will appear on Motorcycle.com on Wednesday or Thursday.  In the meantime, enjoy this in its original state.

Aliens Take Aim at the IMS Infield Track

At Laguna Seca, Repsol Honda’s receding star, Casey Stoner, laid down a statement:  Those of you who thought the 2012 championship was over should perhaps revisit this idea.  His solid win over factory Yamaha primo Jorge Lorenzo, with teammate Dani Pedrosa finishing third, brought the Australian to within 32 points of Lorenzo, heading into Round 11.  The diminutive Pedrosa, in the midst of an outstanding season, is also in the midst of his two rivals, trailing Lorenzo by 23.  All three need to eat their Wheaties this weekend.

The history of MotoGP at Indianapolis is starting to become etched in my mind, more than other circuits since I get better seats here in my home town.  The 2008 inaugural race was held during Hurricane Ike, and Yamaha’s Valentino Rossi, who became Yamaha’s  prodigal son this past week, tracked down Repsol Honda homeboy Nicky Hayden in a remarkably “wet race” called after 18 laps.  In 2009 Rossi, who could have slammed the door on teammate Lorenzo, instead crashed out as Lorenzo won going away, being joined on the podium by Alex de Angelis (?) and Nicky Hayden, the Kentucky Kid’s sole visit to the rostrum that season.  Back home again in Indiana.

Two years ago, Lorenzo led the series comfortably in the scorching heat at Indy.  Pedrosa unexpectedly dominated the race, and Lorenzo managed a satisfactory third, but the day belonged to Ben Spies. The American, in the middle of his Rookie of the Year season on the Tech 3 Yamaha, took the pole late in the QP, ran with the big dogs all day, and held on to second place, the first podium for a satellite Yamaha since Colin Edwards’ at Sepang in 2008.  Stoner wrestled with his Ducati all weekend, qualifying sixth and crashing out on lap eight.

Last year, Repsol Honda owned the world and the IMS, running away from the factory Yamahas.  Stoner and Pedrosa blew away Spies and Lorenzo, spoiling the young American’s second consecutive podium in his home crib.  It marked Indianapolis’ first look at Valentino Rossi wearing (some) Ducati red, and it wasn’t pretty, as The Doctor qualified 14th and finished 10th, one of the most painful outings Rossi has endured in the premier class.  Ever.

Seeking a trend, we can summarize: Rossi and Hayden, Lorenzo and Hayden, Pedrosa and Spies, Stoner and Pedrosa.  Something for every taste and budget.  No telling who may have the hot hand this year, other than the Ducati boys, who won’t.

The MotoGP World Tips Slightly on its Axis

Whenever there is change on the factory teams, I go into a bit of altered consciousness trying to make the adjustments.  On the Repsol team–Stoner/Pedrosa to Pedrosa/Marquez.  On the Yamaha team–Lorenzo/Spies to Lorenzo/Rossi.

[Valentino Rossi back wearing Yamaha leathers in Alien-land.  The sun will rise in the east; all is again right with the world.  I’m flashing on baseball’s A-Rod, who went off to Texas to “win a championship” (good one, Alex) and ended up with the Yankees.]

At Ducati, Rossi/Hayden to Dovizioso/Hayden.  Audi has apparently been ordered by their new Italian employee to fix the GP12 or, um, well, actually, he’ll race for two years and leave in disgust after promising he won’t.  Perhaps Audi is already experiencing buyer’s remorse about owning the rights to an Andrea Dovizioso who feels free to tell them how to run their business.  Ducati is also said to be pursuing a new development strategy, fielding factory-supported A and B teams, grooming younger riders with big potential and wide shoulders to ride for their satellite squads.  See, Nicky Hayden, on a one year deal, is no spring chicken.  Just sayin’.

Andrea Dovizioso is additional proof that life on the factory teams, even Ducati, must be several orders of magnitude sweeter than life on the satellites.  Dovizioso, on the Tech 3 Yamaha, has been hammering podiums all year, and is intentionally throwing away any chance of continuing to do so for probably two full years, thus completing his personal negative career hat trick.  He got worked at Repsol Honda last year.  He got worked just last week by factory Yamaha.  And now he will turn himself inside out trying to race the Ducati, the Career Killer, for money.

Speaking of screwed, we’re witnessing the dizzying rise and fall of Cal Crutchlow, who took such an aggressive I’ll-Be-Doing-You-A-Bloody-Favor stance with the Bologna factory that they encouraged him to pound sand, as it were.  Crutchlow’s options, apart from remaining on the Tech 3 Yamaha, are few.  Cal needs new advisors less inclined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  Next year, he won’t be the only Englishman on the grid, either.  There’ll be a new Brit in town, most likely Scott Redding.

Toni and the Wildcards

This, unfortunately, is not one of the bands you’ll hear in the infield this weekend.  With Hector Barbera questionable, dragging his three week old broken leg around, Toni Elias again brings his high-priced vagabond routine to the Pramac Ducati, which he was able to remain aboard at Laguna Seca for almost two full laps.

Steve Rapp returns with his Attack Performance Kawasaki-powered privateer after failing to qualify in Monterey.  He is joined by Aaron Yates, fronting for Hoosier-based GPTech, sporting another homegrown frame and powered by Suzuki, which is kind of an oxymoron, but they’re new, so we’ll overlook the irony.  Assuming one or both qualify, they’ll be battling with the CRT dregs and definitely trailing the Aprilia-powered ARTs beneath Randy de Puniet and Aleix Espargaro.

Chasing Jorge Lorenzo

One of the things I’ve never spent much MotoGP energy on is arranging interviews with Big Stars.  This year, with a photographer and interpreter in tow, I’ve made a serious run at gaining an exclusive with Jorge Lorenzo Himself, as in Possibly This Year’s Repeat World Champion.  This would be a huge score amongst the gearheads who edit and publish this stuff, and would raise my stature with them immeasurably, given how low the bar currently sits.

Somehow, I located the email address of the Yamaha team flack, Mr. Gavin Matheson.  My proposal to him, in exchange for 10 minutes with his guy, was drinks and dinner at my place for him and Jorge, grilling some fresh salmon and Indiana sweet corn, with local summer tomatoes on the side.  Some down time away from the track, kickin’ it, with a Rolling Stone-style feature spread on the Motorcycle.com website the following day.  A few really penetrating questions, more to do with his private life and interests than bike stuff and the whole internationally-famous-jock-who-can’t-go-anywhere-in-Spain-without-armed-guards thing.

It’s not happening.

Gavin on Monday assured me that despite his almost overwhelming personal desire to see Jorge’s smiling face on the Motorcycle.com site, Jorge’s interview schedule is already jam-packed, which allows him time for video interviews, but not much else.  Here at Motorcycle.com we don’t take that kind of thing personally.  We are still young, and there will be plenty of other grands prix at which Lorenzo, perhaps even Rossi, will become putty in our hands, revealing things in This Publication that you can’t get anywhere else.

Just not this weekend.

Your Hurrying Hoosier Forecast

Indiana has been broiling all summer; last week I cut my lawn for the first time since, like, May.  But the weather forecast for race weekend is dry with temps in the 70’s.  The IMS has been promoting the race hard this year, and attendance is expected to be up, way in excess of what they drew at the “U.S.” Grand Prix in frigging California.  The Gen Con Convention is in town this weekend, billing itself as “the original, longest running, best attended, gaming convention in the world.” And Indy Fringe brings its “offbeat theatrical (freak) show” to Mass Ave. for 11 days starting on the 17th.

Let’s review.  On Friday and Saturday nights we’ll have thousands of motorheads, gamers, and thespians sharing the same space downtown. The opportunities for some epic flash mobs are virtually endless.  I’m taking the family down for a good old Hoosier family funfest on Saturday night, with pictures to follow.  Check back here on Sunday night or Monday for the race story.

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MotoGP 2012 Laguna Seca Results

July 29, 2012

An edited version of this article will appear on Motorcycle.com on Monday, complete with hi-rez photos.  Until then, please enjoy this summary of the MotoGP 2012 U.S. Grand Prix.

Stoner Outduels Lorenzo in Replay of 2011 Classic

Defending world champion Casey drove his Repsol Honda RC213V past Yamaha mullah Jorge Lorenzo into the lead on Lap 22 of today’s U.S. Grand Prix for a convincing and refreshing win, his third at Laguna Seca.  This turn of events provided observers with a startling déjà vu of last year’s race.  Stoner’s Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa finished third both years, adding the same eerie similarity to the podium celebration and post-race press conference.

I knew something weird was happening in Monterey when I glanced at the results of the first two practice sessions and noticed that the top five spots in each were identical.  FP3 was mostly fogged out, and the Repsol Honda team blew it off in the garage playing euchre rather than tackling The Corkscrew blindfolded.  Lorenzo snatched the pole from Stoner on the last lap of the QP, and then Stoner topped Lorenzo in the warm-up practice on Sunday morning by a full 1/1000th of a second, after waiting an hour for the fog to clear.  Although the podium duplicated last year’s rostrum, the lead-up to the weekend was vastly different.

Recall last year.  Heading to California, Stoner was enjoying a string of seven straight podium finishes, and led defending champion Lorenzo by 15 points.  Lorenzo had been having a great season until he crashed out at Silverstone and finished a lowly sixth at Assen.  Curiously, on Saturday Stoner had given himself virtually no chance of winning, all but conceding the round to his Alien rivals, a master class in sandbagging.

Despite having amassed a total of eight (8) points in the last two rounds and trailing Lorenzo by 37, Stoner started this weekend quick and got better each day.  Curiously, he was the only one of the top six riders to choose the softer option rear tire on a day when the sun was quickly heating the racing surface.  My thought was he would try to jump out to the lead and hope his tire held up long enough to fend off his challengers late in the race.  And though he was able to go through on Pedrosa on lap 3, it took him 22 laps to pass Lorenzo.  At that point I, for one, expected the Spaniard to win the race, thinking that his rear tire would outlast Stoner’s.

Wrong.  The Australian did a masterful job managing his rubber, and still looked strong at the end of the day.  Lorenzo, visibly exhausted after the race, didn’t have enough left in his tank to mount a serious rally at the end.  Pedrosa observed after the race that the soft tire was too soft and the hard tire had no grip, and seemed pleased to have finished third.

When the tire dust cleared, the standings at the top of the 2012 chart had tightened slightly.  Stoner became the first three-time winner at Laguna, where Hondas have won four of the eight races since 2005; it is inarguably a Honda-friendly layout.  Lorenzo, with four consecutive poles but only one win, enjoys a larger lead leaving California than when he arrived.  Pedrosa is, as yet, uninjured in 2012.  Heading into the summer break, everyone has something they can feel good about.

Well, Not Exactly Everyone

Laguna Seca lived up to its reputation as a thorny place to ride motorcycles at high speeds.  By lap 2, both CRT pilot Michele Pirro and Pramac Racing designated victim Toni Elias had crashed out.  Two CRT pilots retired with mechanical problems or, more likely, Corkscrew-induced psychological issues, and James Ellison crashed on lap 20.  None of these mishaps had anything to do with anything.

That would change on lap 22, when the luckless Ben Spies endured an ugly crash out of fourth place, ruining yet another weekend for the wayward American.  No one on the grid tries harder, or has less to show for his efforts.  As the old blues standard laments, “If it wasn’t for bad luck, I wouldn’t have no luck at all.”  Having injured his heel in a QP crash, Spies may have added to his medical woes ending his day with an Olympic-caliber double back flip in the tuck position, with a degree of difficulty of 4.3 out of 5.

The last and most surprising fall of the day occurred on lap 29, when Valentino Rossi, who never crashes, lost it at the top of the corkscrew for his first DNF of the season.  We knew Rossi had a lot on his mind before the race, with the speculation about his future with Ducati and rumors of a return to the factory Yamaha team swirling.  His Italian employers sent one of their Bigga Bosses to California to make The Doctor a final offer for next year, somewhere in the neighborhood of €17 million ($21 million) to waste another of the last few years of a great career wrestling the demonic Desmosedici.  Vale didn’t appear to have much on his mind at all after the crash, wandering around in the gravel looking like he’d had his bell rung, waiting for his own personal fog to clear.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Tech 3 Yamaha teammates Andrea Dovizioso and Cal Crutchlow spent another lovely Sunday afternoon bashing each others’ brains in, finishing 4-5 for the fourth time this season.  Nicky Hayden, glowing after having signed another one year contract with the Italian factory, went through on rookie Stefan Bradl late in the day to claim 6th place, relegating the German to a still respectable 7th in his first visit to Laguna.

San Carlo Honda’s Alvaro Bautista started 7th and finished 8th, another nondescript day at the office for the young Spaniard.  Aleix Espargaro, clearly the cream of the CRT crop, finished ninth, with” Kareless” Abraham rounding out the top ten in his first return to action since Barcelona.

Bits and Pieces

The Hayden-Ducati marriage appears to work better for Nicky than for Ducati, as his best days are well behind him.  Over the past three seasons he’s managed a single third place finish each year, and the last of his three (3) premier class wins came back in 2006, when he somehow won the world championship with a thin 252 points.  (In 2008, Pedrosa would finish third with 249 points.)  Other than name recognition, the Kentucky Kid doesn’t bring much to the party any more.

Rumor has it that Fausto Gresini, the volatile manager of the San Carlo team, is courting Andrea Dovizioso to return to the Honda family that so unceremoniously dumped him last year.  Fausto has clearly lost whatever confidence he ever had in Bautista.  Whether he can convince Dovizioso to wear Honda colors again is problematic.  Personally, I think Dovizioso has earned the second factory Yamaha seat, and that Rossi could again be competitive on the factory-spec San Carlo Honda.

An interesting bit of trivia concerns the Constructors Trophy awarded each year to the manufacturer whose riders earn the most points.  Not surprisingly, Honda and Yamaha sit tied at the top of the pile.  But third place Ducati is much closer points-wise to the Aprilia ART bikes than to the two Japanese manufacturers.  We’ve come up with a term to describe the increasing irrelevance of the Ducati MotoGP program:  Suzukification.

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2012 Laguna Seca Preview

July 25, 2012

An edited version of this story, complete with hi-rez photos, will appear on Motorcycle.com on Thursday.  Until then, enjoy.

Lorenzo and Pedrosa Ready to Rumble on Sunday

The U.S. Grand Prix, hosted by the historic Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca, welcomes ”those magnificent men in their flying machines” to kick off the second half of the 2012 season.  Yamaha CEO for a Day and 2010 world champion Jorge Lorenzo has recently put a little room between himself and the Repsol Hondas of challengers Dani Pedrosa and Casey Stoner.  Over the past three seasons, no less than four riders have failed to finish this race each year, a reminder of how perilous life can be in the hills of the Monterey Peninsula; a single “MotoGP moment” could easily shake up the 2012 standings.

Recent History

The 2009 race here was fascinating, as Pedrosa disappeared at the start, while teammates Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi duked it out all day in a great battle for second place.  Rossi, that year’s ultimate champion, dispatched Lorenzo late in the day and set his formidable sights on Pedrosa, whose enormous early lead shrank steadily over the final 10 laps.  At the finish, Rossi trailed the Spaniard by only a third of a second, with Lorenzo another few seconds farther back.  Stoner was wrestling the Ducati and lactose intolerance that year and still managed a respectable fourth.  Andrea Dovizioso, Pedrosa’s Repsol Honda teammate, crashed out early, joining three other riders in the gravel that day.

2010 was Lorenzo’s year, as he cruised to victory after Pedrosa crashed out of the lead unassisted.  Stoner drove his Desmosedici to a respectable second, while Rossi, still healing after his disastrous practice crash in Italy, managed third, just in front of Dovizioso’s RC211V.  2010 marked the beginning of what has become a recent trend, namely the appearance of wild card riders.  That year, Nicky Hayden’s little brother Roger Lee took over the LCR Honda for the injured Randy de Puniet and managed 5 championship points, finishing 11th.  His somewhat misleading result was a side effect of having five other riders crash out, although Roger Lee did manage to edge Alex de Angelis fair and square.

Casey Stoner won here last year in convincing style, due in part to the fact that both Lorenzo and Pedrosa were hurting.  Pedrosa was still recovering from injuries suffered at Le Mans, and Lorenzo was a basket case, having endured a vicious highside crash after taking the pole in the QP.  While both Spaniards hobbled their way up to the podium after the race, the most exciting match of the day saw Ben Spies punk Dovizioso at the flag to steal fourth place.  Ben Bostrom was the sacrificial wildcard that day, retiring after 10 terrifying laps to join the three riders that crashed out.

What to Expect on Sunday

Based upon recent results in Germany and Italy, it is tempting to predict a Lorenzo win, with Pedrosa placing and Stoner to show.  Last time out at Mugello, Lorenzo put on a clinic reminiscent of his 2010 championship season.  Pedrosa, consistent and uninjured all year, has appeared on the podium eight times, but has won only once, at the Sachsenring.  Defending champion Stoner seems to have misplaced his mojo, having won but once, at Assen, since announcing his impending retirement at Le Mans back in May.  As was true at Mugello, each has won here in the last three years.

Unlike Mugello, however, Laguna Seca is short and relatively slow, a layout more favorable to the Hondas than the Yamahas.  When he’s healthy, Pedrosa has the ability to get out in front of the field and take advantage of his superior speed exiting the turns.  Conventional wisdom would suggest that the two Spaniards will fight for the win, with Stoner and Tech 3 Yamaha stud Dovizioso likely contesting the final podium spot.  The Ducati team of Rossi and Nicky Hayden will fight over whatever’s left, joined by Ben Spies and Cal Crutchlow.

One thing is certain.  This year’s wildcard, Steve Rapp on a CRT entry from Attack Racing powered by Kawasaki, will be nowhere near the podium at the race’s end.  Steve is a veteran AMA rider with plenty of credentials, but this is MotoGP, for God’s sake, and he can only hope to beat a few of the Frankenbikes.  His experience at Monterey may indeed help him embarrass one of the other Kawasaki-powered entries from Avintia Blusens, Ivan Silva and Yonny Hernandez.  For Rapp, that would probably count as a win.  Since the two CRT regulars have amassed a total of 11 points in nine rounds, that goal is definitely within reach.

Ben Spies “Gets Quit”

Word that Ben Spies would be leaving the factory Yamaha team at season’s end came as a surprise to many, although we have expected it here for some time.  Though the decision initially is being positioned as Ben’s, it seems likely he was asked to resign, while allowing him to maintain his dignity during the second half of the season.  The move, which must be a crushing disappointment for the American, may relieve some pressure on him, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have a vastly improved second half of the season, as he did last year.  Monterey seems like a good place to start.

Years ago I worked with a thoroughly lazy salesman who sat at home watching daytime TV instead of making sales calls.  Sure enough, management came in one day and asked him to join them in a conference room for a quick meeting, after which they announced he had resigned.  Later, when I asked him what happened, he replied, “I got quit.”  Such seems to be the case with Ben.  Hopefully, we will see him return to MotoGP in 2014 with a reinvigorated Suzuki team.  Until then, it appears World SuperBike is his best option.

Spies is a highly likeable guy who, unlike certain Australian world champions, rarely points the finger of blame at others when he fails to perform.  This feels more like a setback, albeit a big one, than a conclusion.  As for the identity of Jorge Lorenzo’s Italian teammate in 2013, we shall save that speculation for a later date.

Toni Elias Sighting Likely on Sunday

With “Hectic” Hector Barbera out for the foreseeable future with a badly broken leg suffered in practice this past week, Pramac Racing has hired Toni Elias to wear the ghastly green for Round Ten.  Elias, last seen floundering on the Aspar Moto2 Suter, had been given the boot there just in time to join Pramac for one (or two) of their final nine races in the premier class.  Despite his travails since having won the Moto2 title in 2010, Elias’ recent history at Laguna is pretty good, with a 7th in 2008 for Alice Ducati and a 6th in 2009 for the LCR Honda team.

Toni’s return screws up my intended weekend wordplay, as I had intended to discuss Hectic Hector’s departure in conjunction with “Kareless” Karel Abraham’s return to the grid after missing four rounds to injuries suffered at Silverstone.  As the lowest form of humor on earth, no one likes puns anyway, so we won’t bother.

Your Race Weekend Forecast

It promises to be perfect in the greater Salinas area, with temps in the low 70’s and plenty of sunshine.  The westerlies could be a bit of an issue, as they are most years.  Pretty much perfect conditions, especially if you’re an insanely fast Spanish motorcycle racing hombré in search of a world championship.

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2012 MotoGP Mugello Results

July 15, 2012

An edited version of this article will appear on Motorcycle.com later today, complete with high resolution photographs.  Until then, please enjoy this, hot off the presses.

Lorenzo Rules to Extend Championship Lead

On a picture-perfect Tuscan Sunday afternoon, Yamaha’s Jorge Lorenzo gave an object lesson to his rivals for the 2012 world championship.  The Spaniard seized the lead in the first turn of Lap One and held it, unchallenged, to the checkered flag.  Repsol Honda poster boy Dani Pedrosa spent a lonely day in second place.  What little joy there was for the 64,000 Italian fans came in the form of Andrea Dovizioso, who took his third consecutive podium on board the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha.

Lorenzo looked fast and smooth during the weekend’s practice sessions, other than a brief loss of power at the end of qualifying that may have kept him from the pole.  Pedrosa, who spent the entire weekend inhaling Lorenzo’s exhaust fumes, looked geared up to attempt a reprise of his win a week earlier in Germany, and snatched the pole late in the QP.  That Round 9 would hold a few surprises was made clear on Saturday, when Pramac Racing’s ”Hectic” Hector Barbera qualified third, thus becoming the first satellite Ducati rider ever to start a MotoGP race from the front row. In the process, Mugello 2012 became the first premier class race ever to feature an all-Spanish front row, a fact I find incomprehensible, due to the recent domination of Spanish and Italian riders, both in quantity and ability.

We may have just broken another MotoGP record, by failing to mention Repsol Honda lame duck Casey Stoner until the third paragraph of the story.  The Australian, who just two weeks ago was tied for the lead in the 2012 race, qualified a dismal 5th, blaming, in order, the Bridgestone tires, his bike’s setup, the slow WiFi in his hotel room, and the wacky arrangement of gates at the Bologna airport.  At the start, he got caught in traffic, falling to 8th place.  Furiously working his way back from those unfamiliar reaches into 5th on Lap 10, he went hot into the Correntaio corner, known to most of us as Turn 12, went walkabout, fell back to 10th place, and finished a nondescript 8th.

Fine.  What About the Race?

Once the riders had put some heat in the tires, the first group consisted of Lorenzo, Pedrosa, Dovizioso, rookie interloper Stefan Bradl on the LCR Honda, and a determined Nicky Hayden, The Other Guy on the factory Ducati team.  Dovizioso spent a few laps running second, and the surprising German Bradl a good number in third, appearing to be on headed for his first premier class podium.  Pedrosa went through on the Italian on Lap 5, and Bradl, incredibly, followed suit on Lap 10.  But Dovizioso eventually tracked the rookie down on Lap 21 to secure the final podium spot.  In the process, he again delivered for his Tech 3 team, and added to the mounting pressure on the factory Yamaha team to pull the plug on Ben Spies.  Spies qualified 9th and finished 11th, the last prototype to take the flag, some 57 seconds behind teammate Lorenzo.

Once Stoner left the building, the second group, which would end the day fighting for 4th place, included Hayden, who had given up some ground, Ducati teammate Valentino Rossi, Barbera and Tech 3 Yamaha’s Cal Crutchlow.  This group traded shots with one another for much of the afternoon.  By Lap 14, Barbera had dropped back, apparently with tire issues.  On Lap 20, Crutchlow and the Ducatis had climbed back within sight of Dovizioso and Bradl, setting up the best competition of the day.  By Lap 22, Hayden had clawed his way back to within tenths of both Dovizioso and Bradl, running flat out, trying to achieve his first podium since last year at Jerez.  Rossi and Crutchlow were hovering less than a second behind Hayden.  Five riders entered the last lap in contention for the final spot on the rostrum, with the crowd, as they say, going crazy.

With Dovizioso in third refusing to concede anything, Hayden attempted to go through on Bradl into fourth, and the two made contact, causing the American to run wide, the rookie somehow holding onto his line.  Rossi and Crutchlow went all carpe diem and sailed past the luckless Hayden into fifth and sixth, respectively.  At the flag, Rossi had his best dry race finish of the year, and Hayden could only grind his teeth, having outraced his fair-haired teammate all day, only to falter at the end.

The Big Picture

Midway through the 2012 season, Jorge Lorenzo has stretched his lead in the standings over Pedrosa to 29 points, with Stoner, his swan song in ashes, another 18 points behind.  The ascendant Dovizioso, campaigning hard for some respect and a seat alongside Lorenzo next year, sits in fourth place, 13 points on top of teammate Crutchlow, who is apparently playing hard to get with the brass at Ducati.  Rossi leads the next group comprising the top nine, just ahead of Alvaro Bautista, Bradl and Hayden.  Bradl’s 13 points today put him a single point ahead of the American for the season.

On the Lighter Side

As the riders lined up on the grid for the customary Pre-Race Sitting Around Period, the photo of the day was in the eight spot, where Bradl sat, surrounded by his team and the sycophants that clog the grid immediately before the start.  The breathtaking young woman attending his umbrella obviously works for sponsor Playboy, as she wore the tiny, trademarked company costume.  Bradl’s Bodacious Blonde Brolly Bunny will hopefully be featured in this week’s Grid Girls segment on the MotoGP website.  If you’re into that kind of thing, make sure to watch the video.  Worth the price of admission all by herself.

Not certain if this is the one, but she’ll do.

Apropos of nothing in particular, I couldn’t post this article without noting my favorite moment of the day.  It occurred on the last lap of the race, up front, where Jorge Lorenzo was sailing in clean air, footloose and fancy-free, as he passed in front of The Ducati Grandstand.  This is the section reserved for the most rabid and delusional of the Ducati/Rossi fans, where the attendees are given posters to wave in unison, creating pictures of their heroes, the Ducati logo, etc., etc.  Back in the day when Rossi was winning at Mugello every year, this section was the epicenter of MotoGP fandom.  Anyway, as Lorenzo rolled by, he lifted his left arm and gave an extended, friendly wave to the seats where he is Public Enemy #1.  Had he not been concerned about a possible post-race assault, he might have blown a few kisses their way.  Hilarious.

Valentino Rossi’s Helmet

Why we’re discussing Rossi’s headgear at this juncture is somewhat beyond me.  Regardless of what anyone says, The Doctor has lost a step.  Nonetheless, he is still a Big Deal in MotoGP, and especially so in Italy.  One of his traditions is to bust out a special helmet for the Italian Grand Prix, which he did again today.  It featured a tribute to Gianni Morandi, the Tony Bennett of Italy.  Bennett’s signature song is, “I Left My Heart in San Francisco”, and Morandi’s is called “Let’s Stay Together.”  The inference from the media-savvy Rossi is that the marriage with Ducati is not yet over, and that he will return next year.  Hope springs eternal.

It might have been more, um, suitable had Rossi saluted the band Citizen King, whose 1999 hit “Better Days” contained the following lyrics, repeated endlessly from beginning to end:

“I’ve seen better days, I’ve been the star of many plays.

I’ve seen better days, and the bottom drops out.”

Next stop, Monterey.  If you see Kevin Duke there, please tell him I said hello.

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MotoGP Sachsenring Results

July 8, 2012

An edited version of this story will appear on Motorcycle.com with stunning photos later today.  Until then, please enjoy this summary of the 2012 German Grand Prix.

Pedrosa’s Win Tightens the 2012 Championship Race

For the third consecutive year, countrymen Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo finished one-two in the German Grand Prix.  For the diminutive Repsol Honda pilot, today’s race was a field study in skill, stamina and stones, as he tangled with teammate Casey Stoner all day, until Stoner slid off in Turn 12 of the last lap.  Yamaha ace Lorenzo, nursing an injured ankle, had appeared content to settle for third until Stoner’s mishap.  When the dust cleared, the standings at the top of the championship were scrambled, and the 2012 season had just became a lot more interesting.

The weather had been a factor all weekend, alternating between damp, dry and wet, and led to some surprising practice results.  Exhibit A was FP3, run in the wet, in which the top two finishers were CRT plodders Michele Pirro and Mattia Pasini.  Qualifying practice closely resembled last week’s shocker in Assen, as the wet track suddenly dried out late in the session, and Stoner again snatched the pole to join Pedrosa and Yamaha’s Ben Spies on the front row.  Row two included the highly ambitious Cal Crutchlow, a limping Lorenzo, and homeboy Stefan Bradl on the LCR Honda.  When the red light went out, the sun was shining, the track was hot, and the big dogs had their game faces on, along with hard compound asymmetric rear slicks.

If Losail, Silverstone and Aragon are Yamaha-oriented circuits, the Sachsenring is clearly Honda-friendly.  Tight and twisty, it favors the RC213V, with its superior corner-exit power.  (The 1000cc Yamaha M1 loves long straights, but in Germany the longest is only 700 meters.)  As expected, Stoner and Pedrosa took off early, leaving all four Yamahas to scramble for third place, led by an increasingly desperate Spies.  The American, whose fortunes are waning, gave way to Lorenzo on Lap 5, and both Andrea Dovizioso and Crutchlow on Lap 9.  Though Ben would ultimately finish 4th, his best result of the year, it was more a matter of luck than skill, as we shall see.

On Lap 19, Pedrosa went through on Stoner, but the Australian looked comfortable, apparently biding his time until opportunity arose to break his teammate’s little heart once again.  With Lorenzo by himself in third, the battle for fourth place was raging.  Normally, I don’t pay much attention to the ‘race within the race’ off the lead, but there is much at stake in the Spies-Dovizioso-Crutchlow wars, namely the second factory seat alongside Jorge Lorenzo for the next couple of years.  As of this past week, Spies is officially “disappointing” team manager Wilco Zeelenberg.

On Lap 26, Crutchlow, trying to get past Dovizioso, went too hot into one of the three right-handers and ended up in the kitty litter, falling back to 11th position and effectively ending his day.  (It may be that this lone error will result in his going to work for Ducati next year, a mistake the dimensions of which cannot be overstated.  If it does, I can serenely predict that Cal will earn fewer points on the factory Ducati in 2013 than will either of the Tech 3 Yamaha riders.  Take that to the bank.)

A Shocking, Karma-Laden Finish

Pedrosa was still managing to hold off Stoner when the two crossed the start-finish line to start the last lap.  Lorenzo was a mile back, and the Dovizioso-Spies battle continued in the distance.  The only question in my mind was when Stoner would try to go through on Pedrosa.  The racing gods, apparently offended by last week’s events, in which Lorenzo was forced to give up his 25 point championship lead to Stoner, suddenly intervened.  In the midst of Turn 12, a fast left-hander, the front end of Stoner’s bike gradually folded into a lowside, with the Australian sliding 100 yards into his first DNF in 22 races.  The domino effect was remarkable, as follows.

Pedrosa’s win elevated him from third place into second, 14 points behind Lorenzo.  Stoner’s shutout dropped him from a tie for first into third, six points behind Pedrosa.  Dovizioso, who edged Spies by 7/100ths of a second, enjoyed his second consecutive podium finish.  Behind Spies sat Bradl, who coaxed his satellite Honda into fifth place, to the delight of the tollwütigen Zuschauer, for whom he is The Great Aryan Hope.  San Carlo Honda pilot Alvaro Bautista, forced to start from the back of the grid after last week’s debacle, stormed back into 7th place, a fraction of a second in front of the hard-luck Crutchlow.  For the record, Valentino Rossi finished sixth today, and had absolutely nothing to do with anything.

Idle Speculation from the Department of Idle Speculation

The torrent of leaks from the Bologna factory show the depth of concern Ducati has about the 2013 season and beyond.  They seem to think Rossi will not be returning next year, and are giving the distinct impression they don’t want Hayden, either.  They’ve offered a contract to Crutchlow, who would be crazy to accept it.  The sense here is that the overall quality of life on a factory team is so superior to that on the satellite teams (never mind the CRTs) that Crutchlow will find the “opportunity” irresistible, despite the likelihood that it will effectively remove any chance he might have to contend for a world championship in MotoGP.

This past week we learned that both Scott Redding and Danilo Petrucci are in discussions with the Italian company regarding 2013.  I’m starting to feel that I’m the only guy involved in this sport who has NOT been approached by some well-groomed Italian guy in a red windbreaker.  Never mind that I’ve never ridden anything larger than 80cc, and that was during the Nixon administration.

The Big Picture

So, Pedrosa now has his hat trick, with three consecutive wins in Saxony.  Lorenzo has his fourth consecutive bridesmaid finish here, although this one likely feels much better than the last three.  Stoner received some payback for his lucky win last time out, and has work to do if he wants to repeat as world champion.  With only 20 points separating the three Aliens at the top of the heap, the 2012 season is suddenly fascinating.  Approaching the halfway point of the season next week, no one is running away with the title this year.

Next Stop—Mugello

Practice starts again on Friday for the Gran Premio d’Italia TIM.  Between the virulent European financial crisis, which now has Italy in its crosshairs, and the sagging fortunes of Rossi and Ducati, expect a sparse, subdued crowd.  Wait—what am I saying?  Never mind the economy, or the standings.  Next to soccer, MotoGP is the biggest thing in Italy, and the stands will be packed with delirious jabbering men and gorgeous, sultry and, hopefully, under-dressed Italian women.  The brolly girls will be a thing of joy.  And the circuit is one of the best on the planet.

It will be a three day party, a few short miles from Florence, the birthplace of the Renaissance.  For Jorge Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa, the renaissance of the 2012 season started today in Turn 12.  Portarlo sulla!

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