Looking ahead to the shape of the MotoGP grid in 2015, we find
8 Spaniards, headed by Marquez, Lorenzo and Pedrosa. Young Marquez and Rabat on the horizon.
6 Italians, headed by Rossi, Dovizioso and Iannone.
3 Brits, headed by Cal Crutchlow, upon whom the pressure must be immense.
2 Frenchman, Di Meglio and Baz and
- 1 each from the under-cards at USA, Columbia, Northern Ireland, Germany and the Australian Youth League.
Forgiving, as you seem to frequently do, the division of the grid into tranches, along the lines of junk bonds:
Tranche A: Aliens Marquez, Rossi, Lorenzo and Pedrosa.
Tranche B: Competitives: Dovisiozo, Crutchlow, Pol Espargaro and Andrea Iannone.
Tranche C: Redding, Bradl, Aleix Espargaro, Bradley Smth, Jack Miller and Maverick Vinales.
Followed by all the rest. Probably more competitive top to bottom than 2014; the bad teams aren’t going to be so consistently bad. There exist the possibilities of upsets with two extra manufacturers adding machines that will complicate starts and early turns. Expect more from Suzuki with Espargaro and Vinales aboard than with de Puniet. Expect the Aprilias of Bautista and Melandri to lag. Expect Nicky Hayden to see more top ten finishes but remain far from relevant. Don’t know what to expect from Jack Miller who appears fearless at this point but hasn’t yet had the business end of a 1000 cc bike pointed at his helmet. I hope to see success for Vinales, the Espargaros, the Brits and some new Aliens–a coupla Italians, Dovizioso and maybe Iannone–would be greatly refreshing. Marquez may yet again run away with the title, but the battle for second could widen and increase interest in the sport itself, as ethnocentric as it is. That would be helpful heading into 2016, the first year of Michelins, coincident with what one has to expect to be the full fruition of Dall’Igna’s mystic hand at Ducati.
2016 should be comparable to 2002, the year MotoGP went from 2-stroke 500 cc bikes to 4 stroke 990 cc bikes, which was a biggie. The premier class, confirmed as 4-strokes going forward, checked back down to 800 cc in 2007 and back up to 1000 in 2012. An earlier draft of this article, which was consumed by WordPress, went on to present a series of mundane observations about riders and teams and their prospects for 2015. It concluded by suggesting that the 2016 Repsol Honda team could easily be represented by Alex and Marc Marquez, and the factory Yamaha effort would feature Jorge Lorenzo and Tito Rabat. This supposed that both Rossi and Pedrosa would be ready to go quietly. It wondered out loud about the near term prospects for riders Rabat, Vinales and Alex Marquez, while conceding the 2015 and, if history is a teacher, the 2016 titles to Marc Marquez, who has always shown himself to be a quick study when it comes to making major changes in delivery systems.
By the end of 2016 Marc Marquez remains #1 in the world, with three of the next four riders to include Lorenzo, Alex Marquez and Rabat. Ignoring Lorenzo, The Three Amigos train harder than anyone, play harder than their peers, and attract sponsors the way bright lights do moths. By 2016, they will all have factory rider status, a term which, at times, gets watered down to meaning little more than high rider salaries. They will still have the best machines, the best crews, and no money worries. And, because I don’t know everything, I must confess that another rider, one from Tranche B, will be in the battle for places two through five. The cumulative effect of the rule changes being put into effect between now and the start of 2016 should make the fight for places five through 15–points–much less predictable and more fun to watch. Two new factory teams, one of which will be decent, one of which will be bad. The new Honda customer engine. Marc VDS. The Espargaro brothers. Lots of Ducatis, fronted by Dovizioso and Iannone. 25 riders on the grid. An explanation for why Alex de Angelis might even bother with Ioda Racing. The looming entry of KTM in the builder’s competition on 2016.
MotoGP claimed to draw its biggest crowds ever in 2014 and named Indianapolis the best GP of the year. Hunh. Despite Dorna’s best efforts not to promote the sport through online outlets, and the fact that not a single American rider competes at anything close to a winning level, MotoGP seems to be drawing followers in the US. The people at the IMS do a lot to promote the race in August, even though it always comes after a break in the schedule and at the start of what one might think of as “the back nine.” by which time Marquez may have already clinched. Seriously, the Indianapolis race may draw 65,000 people on Sunday and look practically empty. Other races draw as few as in the 30,000’s. Indy’s not bad at all, but it looks bad on TV.
This is all part of an effort to keep the MotoGP conversation going in the off-season. Feel free to argue or disagree. I watch the sport and get paid to think about it. You might at least wonder why that is.
Tags: Cal Crutchlow, Dani Pedrosa, Grand Prix motorcycle racing, Honda, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, motogp, Nicky Hayden, valentino rossi, Yamaha
Late-Braking MotoGP 
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