With two of the three major testing sessions behind us and Losail beckoning, life at the top of the MotoGP food chain is beginning to change. New teams at the top appear certain. The relative degrees of improvement each team achieved during the offseason are illuminating.
At the end of the 2015 season I would have ranked the major teams in this order:
- Yamaha
- Honda
- Ducati
- Suzuki
- Aprilia
Going into the 2016 season my take is that the top four teams are very close, with Aprilia remaining an unknown, in this order:
- Yamaha
- Ducati
- Suzuki
- Honda
- Aprilia
I am not convinced Marc Marquez can stay upright on his machine frequently enough to contend on a regular basis. Dani Pedrosa appears to be gently riding his 2016 bike in the hope of finding some grip anywhere. Crutchlow has had some impressive moments at LCR, but his tendency to crash out of the top three on race day is a concern. Neither the injured Jack Miller nor former Moto2 champion and graduate Tito Rabat at Marc VDS have shown anything thus far.
At Team Yamaha the brute talent of Lorenzo and Rossi and a manufacturer that does not espouse dramatic change, have put it in the top position again. It appears the Yamahas have stood still, while some of the other teams have stepped backwards. Herve Poncharal is putting pressure on his pair at Tech 3, Bradley Smith and Pol Espargaro, to show some get and go, fighting in the corners as in years past. Appears the Tech 3 2015 M-1 doesn’t adjust as well to the 2016 ECU and tires.
The Ducatis are very interesting. I give you one Hectic Hector Barbera, an underachiever every season since his promotion from the 250cc class. Barbera is pushing his GP14.2 within the top five, telling everyone this year’s standard ECU is BETTER than what he’s been riding with since he fell out of the top ten years ago. Iannone looks to be keeping his powder dry in anticipation of Round 1. A shame about Dani Petrucci, who will be dealing with a broken hand just at the time he could have cemented his status as a consistent top 10 rider.
The fact that there will be 8 generally competitive Ducs on the grid by itself raises the likelihood of top five finishes. I will continue to bang the drum, in an effort to hatch conspiracy theories between Ducati and Magneti Morelli having to do with the ECU, the hacking of which has likely become a top three objective for the dev teams at Honda and Yamaha. The other two have their hands full already.
It appears that Maverick Vinales will receive his Alien card this season. His new Suzuki has done well on tracks not built to its advantages. It will be interesting to see how it does at cramped little places like The Sachsenring and Le Mans. It would not surprise me at all for Vinales to stand on the center step on a podium this season. Hot property. Teammate Aleix Espargaro is struggling with ECU and tires. One star rising, one setting on the Suzuki Ecstar team.
Avintia Racing is now sporting Ducati livery in an attempt to regain relevance. It could happen. Scott Redding and Loris Baz now have some grunt under them on their respective teams.
As for Gresini Aprilia, it’s a mystery. The new prototype is not yet complete; the paint will still be tacky when they roll the first one out in Qatar–testing or race unclear at this time–and we will see if they have anything going on.
No one is squawking particularly loudly about ECU issues, but the tires are another subject. 13 crashes at Phillip Island are about 5 more than average. Faster warmup on cold mornings must be priority 1A at Michelin, running just behind Front Grip.
If the season were to start today, my picks for the top six riders would go:
- Jorge Lorenzo
- Valentino Rossi
- Maverick Vinales
- Marc Marquez
- Andrea Iannone
- Dani Pedrosa
We can revisit this in November to see how things pan out.
Tags: 2016 MotoGP championship, Jorge Lorenzo, Losail, Marc Marquez, maverick vinales, motogp, motorcycle racing, Qatar, valentino rossi
Late-Braking MotoGP 
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