End of Season Point Projections

MotoGP Spreadsheet after 11 Rounds

Marc Marquez’ silver medal at Red Bull Ring nudged him a little closer to the all-time season points record. In a season in which I predicted he wouldn’t make it to 300.

I am sufficiently wrong that the only thing which could possibly save me would be a serious issue with Marquez causing him to miss multiple starts. Even then, if my projection turns out accidentally to have been right, there would always be an asterisk anyway.

Here’s how bad the projection was. If Marquez were to close out the season with two wins, two 4ths, a fifth, a sixth and two DNFs he would accumulate 97 points and still make my projection wrong. Can’t explain it.

Meanwhile, in broad strokes, Marquez has averaged 18.3 points per round in the first 11. He needs to average 21.62 in the last eight to finish with an average of 19.7, which would give him 374 points and the all-time record. In other words he needs 173 of a possible 200 points. In the unlikely event he were to go into Valencia needing a win to claim the all-time record, I’m sure he would go for it, and I’m equally sure he wouldn’t crash out trying.

After 11 rounds, we are projecting Marquez to finish with 347.

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4 Responses to “End of Season Point Projections”

  1. Vrooom Says:

    What went wrong with your projection is simply that last year had so many different winners. Hard to predict that number would be cut by more than half. Don’t think Lorenzo will surpass Dovi, but I’m biased.


  2. Old MOron Says:

    Ha ha, when I first looked at your chart, I misread Valley’s score. I thought it said 345 instead of 245.

    As others have noted, JoLo might be a threat for 2nd place. Going to be interesting to watch.


  3. Old MOron Says:

    Hey Brucey,
    Have you read or heard Scott Reading’s stinging debrief after the last race?
    And how about his subsequent apology?

    I feel for him and Aleix. How many times have technical problems with Aleix’s bike prevented him from finishing a race?

    But Scott needs to take a page from Donald Lockwood:
    “Dignity. Always dignity.”

    And if Hollywood ideals are unreasonable, then at least he can follow his teammate’s example.


    • Bruce Allen Says:

      I don’t know what he said and I read that he apologized. His basic problem, from the beginning, is that his abilities, though formidable, are not as high as his OPINION of his abilities, which is epic. There will NEVER be a bike good enough to employ all of his God-given gifts. Notably, not Aprilia, which should perhaps reconsider this whole MotoGP thing.


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