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MotoGP 2016 Motegi Preview

October 4, 2016

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

The Yamaha non-win streak is a thing 

Round 15 of the 2016 MotoGP championship is the first leg of the annual Pacific flyaway, three races in three weeks during which the title will be decided.  Unlike 2013 and last year, this year’s finale at Valencia will not be the dramatic season-decider they love hosting in Spain in November.  A question gaining traction in the paddock raises the issue of whether it’s the Honda winning the title or the Yamahas losing it.  Big Blue hasn’t had a win this year since Rossi’s win over Marquez at Catalunya back in early June. 

After going four-for-four between Jerez and Catalunya, things have gone badly for the factory Yamaha team, their current winless streak their longest since, um, a long time ago.  Factory officials deny any problem, giving us the “it’s just one of those things that happen some years…” explanation.  Rossi continues to fight hard, the end of his career somewhere on the horizon.  Lorenzo, since Mugello, has amassed 67 points out of a possible 200.  Do people agree it’s a fair statement that most of the wins collected by the six non-Movistar winners have come at the expense of the Yamaha factory team, specifically Jorge?  Is it possible he has, subconsciously, checked out?  Seeing red, as it were?

The 2016-2017 workout conducted by the Repsol Honda team at Aragon on 9/28, their fifth day of the five allotted to them this season, was characterized as fruitful.

All of which puts a little extra pressure on young Vinales heading into 2017. 

Recent history at Motegi

The 2013 race, preceded by two typhoons and an earthquake, was won by, of all people, Jorge Lorenzo.  Marquez and Pedrosa followed, the only riders to finish within five seconds of the Mallorcan.  A good idea of how Rossi’s day went is the fact that he ended up in sixth place behind Alvaro Bautista and Stefan Bradl.

In 2014 it was All Aliens, All the Time as Lorenzo led a pack of highly-paid pursuers to the finish line, with Marquez, Rossi and Pedrosa all following on their factory machines, the time between 1st and 4th a scant 3.1 seconds. Though Dovizioso took pole, the four Aliens were grouped 2 to 5. Marquez, leading the series, conceded first place to Lorenzo and, in the process, clinched the title. The race featured contact between Lorenzo and Marquez on Lap 5 which might have cost the Catalan the race, had it mattered. The second-world-title Samurai ceremony afterwards was cool if somewhat overdone, testament to the belief of many that anything worth doing is worth overdoing.

Last year, Dani Pedrosa chose Motegi to make his annual stand, leading Rossi and Lorenzo to the line in a wet-ish affair.  Marquez struggled into fourth place ahead of Dovizioso on the Ducati.

Pedrosa would go on to win at Sepang.  He recorded seven wins in 2012 to two in 2015; he is well along the back nine of his distinguished career.

Rossi’s lead over Lorenzo stood at 18 points with three rounds to go.  The title was his to lose.

Elevated Frustration Coefficients 

Aside from Marquez, every rider on the grid is suffering from Elevated Frustration Coefficients (EFC) due to the circumstances of his 2016 season, the number raised by every piece of bad equipment, bad riding, bad luck and low rent under the sun.  Here are a few—

  • Valentino Rossi: a slide-off in Texas, an engine in Italy, a careless fall at Assen stand between him and a title chase. He loathes his teammate.  And he’s been caught on camera recently being somewhat crude.  Hurts t-shirt sales.  EFC unusually high.
  • Jorge Lorenzo: crashed in Argentina and Catalunya; made a hash of the middle of the season. Appears unable to compete on wet tracks.  Starting to look like a short-timer at Movistar Yamaha.  Trailing Rossi elevates his EFC.
  • Dani Pedrosa: disaster of a season somewhat revived by his stirring win at Misano. Continues to have grip problems on a bike being built to Marquez specifications.  Giving feedback on new equipment while #93 stays on his 2014 frame.  EFC somewhat dulled, along with expectations.
  • Maverick Vinales: on the cusp of greatness.  Already being called an Alien—he’s not.  But he soon will be on the factory Yamaha.  With Rossi there to guide him until they become rivals—figure six rounds next season—he will have a steep learning curve, nothing he can’t handle.  Less stressed than most.
  • Cal Crutchlow: in a perfect world he would be leading the championship series.  Just ask him.  As it is, he’s a midfielder with more quotes than podiums.  He won his race this season.  Will there be more?  EFC gets raised by waking up in the morning.

And so on and so on.  The lead that Marquez has built, one brick at a time, along with the drought at Movistar Yamaha, along with the startling EFC data, suggest he will have to be suckered into losing the 2016 title.  The only thing that can hurt him now is crashing out of a round or two.  People praying for a close premier class finish must necessarily pray for rain, otherwise it appears to be smooth sailing for Marquez and his third title in four seasons.

Here’s what 2017 looks like in Tranches 1-4:

Same Equip                New Equip

  1. Marquez (1)      Lorenzo (2)
  2. Rossi (2)            Vinales (2)
  3. Pedrosa (3)       Iannone (3)
  4. Crutchlow (2)  P Espargaro (3)
  5. Dovizioso (3)    Rins (3)
  6. Barbera (4)        A Espargaro (3)
  7. Redding (4)
  8. Bautista (4)
  9. Petrucci (3)

The changes at the top of the food chain—Lorenzo to Ducati, Vinales to Yamaha, Iannone and Rins to Suzuki—appear to weaken Marquez’s 2017 competition, as all of these guys will be on new equipment.  Rossi remains the exception, and will continue to press the detested Spaniard.  The 2017 Yamaha M1 is being advertised as a quantum evolution of the bike; one assumes Honda engineers have something going on to give the RC213V more grunt coming out of turns.  Can Yamaha improve their bike by more than enough to compensate for the growing realization that, mano á mano, Marquez, today, probably beats Valentino on identical equipment?  Can Lorenzo and Vinales crack the top five consistently on new rides?  What if it rains?  Is Crutchlow actually in Tranche 2?

Here We Go Again

The MotoGP season is beginning to resemble a Red state/Blue state map of the racing world.  Both Honda and Yamaha (joined by Ducati) have tracks where they are expected to win, due to layout, design, average speed, average corner speed, etc.  Austin for the Hondas, Mugello for the Yamahas, etc.  Red and blue states if you will, where holding serve is imperative.  This, then, leaves the “battleground states,” the tracks where neither manufacturer enjoys a distinct advantage.  Teams fight desperately for wins in those battleground states, as they typically decide the title when things go according to form. They also present opportunities for upsets—see Assen over the years.

Marquez, with four wins and ten podiums, has scored points in blue and red states.  Starting to smell a landslide.

Riders Returning

Bradley Smith (Tech 3 Yamaha), Andrea Iannone (Factory Ducati), and probably Jack Miller (Marc VDS Honda) will return to the track off of injuries, following Loris Baz, who came back for Avintia Racing at Aragon.  All the regulars should be out for practice on Friday.  Thank you very much to Alex Lowes, Michele Pirro and Nicky Hayden for helping to fill up the grid of late.

We’ll have results and analysis right here around noon on Sunday.

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Posted in 2016 MotoGP championship, Andrea Dovizioso, Andrea Iannone, Dani Pedrosa, Ducati, Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Honda, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, Maverick Vinales, Motegi, MotoGP, MotoGP Motegi, Racing News, Suzuki, Valentino Rossi, Yamaha | Leave a Comment »

MotoGP 2015 Motegi Preview

October 6, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Round 15: The Bruise Brothers Square off in Japan

mothra-vs-Godzilla - CopyThe MotoGP website is somewhat predictably promoting this week’s tilt between Movistar Yamaha tough guys Jorge Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi as “The Clash of the Titans.” Which, to an on-the-street local racing fan here, would naturally bring to mind Godzilla. If, in fact, the Motul Grand Prix of Japan gives us a replay of Mothra vs Godzilla, I assume the indomitable lizard triumphs, suggesting that Rossi will play the role of Mothra. It is easy to envision Lorenzo on the top step this weekend, surrounded by Honda pilots, Rossi’s margin at the top of the 2015 heap vanishing in the haze.

This is the way racing is supposed to be. It’s a relationship thing, really. Rossi and Lorenzo have known each other as friends and rivals for a decade. Together, they’ve already given their present employer Yamaha the 2015 Manufacturer’s championship. They have a bazillion world championships between them, and Rossi’s current 14 points advantage. Lorenzo’s, um, demeanor when he came up as a rookie in 2008 was such that they built a wall down the middle of the garage and had to be kept separated. Since then, each has mellowed, Lorenzo has matured, and Rossi, somehow, remains humble, irrepressible and fast. Beating one another is one of their great pleasures in life.

It doesn’t get much better than this. If you’re a Honda fan, you can still have a good time. You’ll just have to wait for Rossi & Lorenzonext year to have a rider in contention for a world championship. This is The Year of the Yamaha.

Recent History at Motegi

2012. Heading into the race Yamaha Chico de Oro Jorge Lorenzo led Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa by 33 points, with Stoner in third recovering from the ankle he trashed in Indianapolis. That day, Pedrosa beats Lorenzo and Gresini Honda’s Alvaro Bautista (?) comfortably in as empty a win as you’ll ever see. During the race, Stoner has issues, as does Rossi, plodding on his Ducati. Spies crashes off the factory Yamaha early, Crutchlow off his Tech 3 Yamaha late. Pedrosa, with all the momentum, leaves Japan trailing the rock-hard Mallorcan by 28 points with two rounds left, the fat lady singing in the background.

The 2013 race was summarized elegantly by this publication, as follows:

Sick of all the attention the racing gods were getting in the run-up to this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix, the weather gods put on a show of their own. They sent Typhoon Lekima barreling toward the island on Thursday, summoned a 7.1 earthquake on Friday night, and topped it all off with Typhoon Francisco on Saturday, making a shambles of the weekend practice schedule. Undeterred by the weather, defending world champion Jorge Lorenzo ran a perfect race on Sunday, winning against all odds, and setting up a meaningful season finale against Marquez in Valenciana. Take THAT, weather gods!

Last year it was All Aliens, All the Time as Lorenzo led a pack of highly-paid pursuers to the finish line, with Marquez, Rossi and Pedrosa all following on their factory machines, the time between 1st and 4th a mere 3.1 seconds. Though Diviozioso took the pole, the four Aliens were grouped from the 2 to 5 holes. Marquez, leading the series, conceded first place to Lorenzo and clinched the title. The race featured contact between Lorenzo and Marquez on Lap 5 which arguably cost the Catalan the race. The Samurai ceremony afterwards was cool if somewhat ironic, in that a number of fans might have been offended while most western observers were clearly stoked.Samurai celebration

Comings and Goings

The team lineups are beginning to shape up for 2016, the year of the “spec” ECU and Michelins. The four top factory teams will remain the same. A supposedly revived Gresini Aprilia team will feature MotoGP underachievers Alvaro Bautista and Stefan Bradl. Brit Sam Lowes reportedly has a contract with Aprilia for 2017-18, meaning one of the two vets will have to go. My take on this is that Fausto has barely tolerated Bautista all these years since Simoncelli, and that Bradl hadn’t had enough time to get under his skin yet but surely will. Big changes underway for the Gresini team this offseason.

The Monster Tech 3 team is to stand pat with Pol Espargaro and Bradley Smith as expectations there continue to rise. Pramac Ducati gives Yonny Hernandez’s seat to Scott Redding, who needs all the grunt the Desmosedici can muster, to team with the ascendant Danilo Petrucci. (I’m not sold on Redding in the premier class yet, but am totally sold on Gigi Dall’Igna.) LCR Honda continues with the disappointing Cal Crutchlow, and Marc VDS signs Tito Rabat to a factory Honda, coming up from Moto2, to take Redding’s seat. The Most Blessed Jack Miller, the Anointed One, has a full ride with factory Honda and will land either on LCR or VDS.

Team Aspar, seriously negotiating a change from Honda to Ducati equipment for 2016, has signed Hernandez. Their second seat appears up for grabs, with incumbent Eugene Laverty enjoying no advantage going in. Deposed incumbent Nicky Hayden appears surely to be headed to World Super Bike, where he can expect to contend for titles again.

Avintia Racing stays with Ducati, Hector Barbera and the recently-signed Loris Baz aboard. The French Baz appears to have a surprisingly bright future at 6’3”, making the jet setters look like teenagers while whipping his cobbled-up Yamaha toward the top of the heap for open class riders.

Farther down the food chain, two of the remaining three teams looks to be out of business next season. Most likely to continue with Alex de Angelis is brave little Ioda Racing, hoping to field a two man satellite Aprilia team, rider #2 as yet un-named. Forward Racing seems doomed, and Karel Abraham’s future with his dad’s Cardion AB team is in doubt as he seems to have permanent damage from a foot injury he suffered last season. Dude needs to retire.

All of which suggests that KTM, upon their entry to the grid in 2017, may bump a team out of the chase, in addition to skimming a couple of up-and-coming riders, perhaps on their way up from Moto2. The chase is intended to be more competitive due to the standard ECU, which writers elsewhere have described as something of a target-rich environment for tampering behaviors similar to those admitted to recently by Volkswagen. Regardless, MotoGP continues, at its core, to be rather biblical, as you will always have the poor with you, the “privateer” teams that struggle every season but can’t pull themselves away easily. Those of you who have stood or rode on the tarmac understand the juice that drives these behaviors. I should be nicer to these guys.

The Thing is…

Everybody tells me the tires are everything. Whomever adjusts to the new Michelins most quickly will take the lead in the championship next year. It is probably going to be the worst year in MotoGP history to bet on the outcome. Though it could easily last only for a season, or even part of a season, there could easily be a shakeup in the Aliens lineup come 2016, the older riders becoming most vulnerable. Suppose Rossi decides to go out on top. Suppose Yamaha begins flirting with Marquez.

It promises, at the least, to be interesting.

Your Weekend Forecast…

…couldn’t be worse for most teams. Sunny on Friday and Saturday with a 90% chance of rain on Sunday. I was going to suggest people “plan to listen to the Spanish national anthem after the race, not the Italian.” But if it is a wet race, all bets are off on the outcome, with Rossi clearly holding the upper hand. Once again the weather gods appear poised to influence the standings.

Mothra may be feeling pretty good about the rematch.

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Posted in Dani Pedrosa, Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, marc marquez, Motegi, MotoGP, MotoGP Motegi, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News, Valentino Rossi | Leave a Comment »

Samurai Marc Marquez seizes second consecutive premier class title

October 12, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Motegi Results by Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com.

On a cloudy, cool Saturday afternoon in Haga District, Tochigi, Japan, 21-year old Repsol Honda pilot Marc Marquez clinched his second world championship in the premier class of MotoGP. This follows earlier championships in the Moto2 and 125 classes, giving him four titles in five years of grand prix racing. We at Motorcycle.com are impressed.

Victory signGrand prix motorcycle racing fans often speak about the Alien class of riders, typically comprised of the four savants that make up the factory Honda and Yamaha teams. In almost every round of every season, it is these four souls from which the three podium celebrants emerge. This lack of variety is one of the shortcomings of the sport, at least in the premier class. In the two underclasses, the concentration of power is more diluted, and the result is more exciting, less predictable races.

Heading into today’s race at Motegi, all four of this year’s Aliens had a part to play in the drama which unfolded. Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa and Movistar Yamaha #2 Valentino Rossi were responsible for keeping young Marquez from securing the title by whatever means necessary; one or both had to beat him to keep the chase alive heading to Phillip Island next week.

Jorge Lorenzo, who has fairly dominated the second half of the 2014 season after a calamitous first half, was under no such pressure, having been eliminated from title contention weeks ago. For him, the war was over, despite having several battles left to wage. An accidental collision with Marquez, however, would not be the worst thing for his factory Yamaha team on this day. Such things are, after all, possible on two wheels in close quarters at high speeds. And a possible explanation for the presence of Yamaha factory test rider Katsuyuki Nakasuga as a wildcard entry on a factory spec YZR-M1 for Divine Wind Racing. Just sayin’.

Disorder at the Start

Being on the wrong side of the International Date Line, qualifying at Motegi took place locally on Friday, with the resulting grid finding all four Aliens in the middle of a Ducati sandwich, factory #1 Andrea Dovizioso having qualified brilliantly for his second career pole, and Pramac Racing overachiever Andrea Iannone starting from the six hole. The special status Ducati enjoys in the premier class, somewhere between factory and open specs, allows the Dueling Andreas to qualify on pillow-soft rear tires that would not last a third of a race, but which are great for front row starts.

The start of every race, when the red lights go out and 20-some guys release their brake and clutch handles at the same time, is the most dangerous 20 seconds of the entire day. The mad dash to the first turn results in a substantial amount of contact between riders. In the lower classes, especially Moto3, it is not surprising to see half a dozen riders leave the macadam, stomping their feet and shaking their fists at one another. On the big bikes, riders generally trade a little paint and keep on trucking, occasionally falling back in the pack but staying upright.

Thus, it was not surprising today to watch #5 starter Lorenzo veer into #4 starter Marquez heading into turn one, causing the defending champion to briefly rise up and lose two or three spots. He would regain them in the next half lap, by which time Rossi led the field, followed in close disorder by Dovizioso, Iannone and Lorenzo. Marquez and Pedrosa were, at this moment, kind of lost in the sauce, an increasingly frequent problem for Pedrosa in 2014. But by the end of Lap 1, the leaders were Rossi, Lorenzo, Dovizioso, Iannone, Marquez and Pedrosa. Two minutes into the race, one must guess Marquez had but three things on his mind: Must. Catch. Rossi.Rossi 2014

Marquez Seeks Out #46

The rest of the afternoon was, in hindsight, fairly predictable. On Lap 4, Marquez passed Iannone into 4th place, with Pedrosa doing the same to the Italian the next time around. Lap 5 was noteworthy as Lorenzo went through on teammate Rossi into the lead he would maintain for the rest of the day. On Lap 6 I noted that Pedrosa was running alone in 5th place watching his season end in front of him.

On Lap 9, Dovizioso ran his Ducati a bit wide in one of the mid-lap turns, allowing Marquez through into 3rd place with the blue and yellow of #46 now directly in front of him. Rossi’s pit board immediately informed him that, in essence, the weight of the world now rested squarely on his shoulders, that it was up to him to hold off the young Spaniard for 15 laps or else turn out the lights on the 2014 season. As we now know, it was too much to ask for the 35-year old nine time world champion, or anyone else for that matter.

Marquez Finds #46

Lorenzo, by this time, was in his private place, leading by roughly 3 seconds and laying down fast laps one after the other; sadly, aside from his team, no one seemed to care too much. The 43,000 fans in attendance were focused on the contest for second place as Marquez gradually, inexorably tracked down his idol, closing the gap steadily until Lap 15, when the two briefly traded positions, Rossi surviving the first challenge. The second would come on the following lap, as Marquez smoothly, cleanly and effortlessly went through on the Yamaha and made it stick. Both Rossi and Pedrosa would push their machines to the absolute limit for the remaining 10 laps in a doomed effort to overtake Marquez.

It wasn’t happening.

And that was that. The day ended with Lorenzo, Marquez and Rossi on the podium for the fourth time this year. The celebrations in both the Yamaha and Honda camps seemed just a shade muted, as Yamaha claimed a double podium on a day in which they were eliminated from the title chase, while Honda locked down another world championship but was denied the pleasure of seeing Marquez on the top step of the podium.

victory helmetYoung Marc did claim the mantle of utter coolness by virtue of the gold helmet he wore for his victory lap and the elaborate Samurai ceremony staged to honor him as a new member of the esteemed warrior class of ancient Japan. In it, Marquez unsheathed the sword of honor and used it to cut the string that tethered a white balloon with the #1 stenciled on it, releasing the balloon toward the heavens and securing the young Spaniard’s place in his adoptive country’s ancient tradition of sledgehammer symbolism and truly whacked out honorifics.

Samurai celebration

On to Phillip Island

MotoGP now confronts a month of anticlimactic denouement. True, the contest for second place for the year could not be closer, with Rossi and Pedrosa tied and Lorenzo trailing the two by a mere three points. We’ll see a few wildcard entries, with Suzuki scheduled to make a cameo appearance at Valencia prior to its full-fledged return to the premier class next year. We’ll catch you up on the last sips of the silly season and forthcoming news from the Marc VDS and Gresini Aprilia teams. A measure of the existential crisis confronting the rest of the premier class season is the growing anticipation of the post-race testing slated for Valencia in November.

How fitting is it that the sun should begin to set on the 2014 season in The Land of the Rising Sun? Congratulations to world champion Marc Marquez!

MM victory continues

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Posted in Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, marc marquez, MotoGP, MotoGP Motegi | Leave a Comment »

Countdown to a championship begins in Hondaland

October 7, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Motegi Preview, by Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com.

pedrosa-marquezThe Motul Grand Prix of Japan marks the beginning of the annual late season three-races-in-three-weeks “Pacific flyaway” during which the MotoGP world championship is usually clinched. Last year, for only the second time in 21 years, the grid traveled to Valencia with the title, eventually won by then rookie Marc Marquez, up for grabs. This year appears certain to revert to form, as Marquez stands on the cusp of his second premier class title.

Before one of our more devoted readers blasts us for ignoring the fact that there are still 100 points “on offer” for the 2014 season, let me clarify a point raised last time out, when we asserted that Marquez’ magic number was/is one (1). We were expressing Marquez’ objective relative to his closest rival, teammate Dani Pedrosa, who trails him today by exactly 75 points. Should Pedrosa maintain his grip on second place this weekend—he leads Yamaha icon Valentino Rossi by a scant three points—and sees his deficit to Marquez increase by a single point, Marquez clinches. THAT is the one point we were discussing. We are ignoring the possibility that Marquez could go 0-for-October and November, just as we ignore the possibility that the same reader could, in theory, jump over the Empire State Building.empire_state_building1

Clearly, the question is not “if.” The question is “when.”

In our reader’s defense, the young Spaniard has looked remarkably ordinary in three of his last four outings. Sure, he won at Silverstone, beating Yamaha double champion Jorge Lorenzo by 7/10ths in a riveting battle that raged all day. But he gave us the curious 4th place finish at Brno the previous round, and followed his triumph in Britain with the mystifying lowside at Misano and the ill-conceived crash in the rain at Aragon. The fact remains that Marquez has a virtually insurmountable lead with four rounds left. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if our crack research staff were to comb the archives and determine that no rider in the history of MotoGP has failed to clinch the title when leading by 75 points with four rounds left.

(I take that last one back. In that we don’t actually have a crack research staff, it would surprise me immensely if “they” were to discover anything at all about MotoGP, bird-watching, or the price of beer.)

Recent History at Motegi

twin ring motegi

From the air, Motegi resembles a heavy-duty stapler.

The fabled Twin Ring Motegi Circuit is the home track of Honda Racing Corporation, where HRC does the testing that produces arguably the fastest grand prix prototypes on the planet. Ducati fans will, at this point, protest, citing the Italian bike’s higher top end speed, which is relevant in places like the Bonneville Salt Flats but less so on the road courses that comprise grand prix racing. Suffice it to say that Honda has won more constructor championships in the premier class than any other manufacturer, including the last three. If your bum is planted on a factory spec Honda, you have no viable excuse for finishing outside the top six every week.

It is, therefore, surprising that Honda has enjoyed so little recent success at its home crib. Since the Japanese Motorcycle Grand Prix returned to Motegi from Suzuka in 2004, Honda has won here exactly three times, in 2004, 2011 and 2012, the last two courtesy of Dani Pedrosa. One fears that a number of ritual suicides may have occurred at HRC headquarters in the intervening years, as a string of executives lost serious face to Yamaha and even Ducati during the period. In hindsight, the three consecutive years in which Loris Capirossi rode his Ducati to victory (2005-2007) must have been particularly chilling.

Back in 2011, Pedrosa comfortably outpaced Lorenzo’s Yamaha and teammate Casey Stoner after Stoner ran himself out of contention and into the gravel early on. The young, charismatic Marco Simoncelli rode his San Carlo Gresini Honda to an impressive fourth place finish, and would surpass that result the next time out when he podiumed in second place at Phillip Island. Sic would start the final race of his career the following week at Sepang.Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380

In 2012, Pedrosa would repeat at his employer’s home track, followed again by Lorenzo, with the unpredictable Alvaro Bautista claiming thirdplace on what I think of as Simoncelli’s satellite Honda. Dani was in the process of winning six of the last eight races of the year in a futile attempt to overtake Lorenzo. He would win again the following week at Sepang, only to see his season come to a grinding halt at Phillip Island in a slow-motion lowside eerily evocative of Simoncelli’s own tragic lowside the previous year in Malaysia. Pedrosa, thankfully, would live to race again.

Last year, on top of to two typhoons and a 7.1 earthquake on Friday night, rookie Marquez put his title chances in deep peril with a violent high side in the Sunday morning warm-up that left him with a sore shoulder and neck rather than the broken collarbone he probably deserved. Demonstrating unexpected toughness, he stayed close enough to the leaders to claim third place and hold Lorenzo at bay. Lorenzo, in an effective impression of Pedrosa the preceding year, won five of the last seven races to finish the year, allowing Marquez to claim the title by a scant four points.

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Part of the mystique attached to Marc Marquez derives from the way the two previous seasons ended. Leaving Valencia in 2012, one couldn’t help believing that 2013 could be Dani Pedrosa’s year, that he had finally found the formula for winning a title. Along comes rookie Marquez, who puts that theory to rest with a sensational rookie campaign, having made a lot of hay while Pedrosa was injured in the middle of the season. Fast forward to the end of 2013, when Lorenzo sets expectations for his 2014 season—both of his titles came in even-numbered years—sky high. Instead, Lorenzo finds himself down 80 points to Marquez after five rounds, gasping for air, his season in ruins. So much for expectations.

Young man has the world by the balls.

Young man has the world by the balls.

 

It was French humanist and scientist René Dubos who first observed that “trend is not destiny.” Marquez graduates from Moto2 and wins his rookie premier class campaign by four points. He returns the following year and wins by, let’s say, 50 points. (Should he break Mick Doohan’s record of 12 wins in a season it’ll be more like 100.) Does this suggest that he’ll take the 2015 title by 150 points? Hardly. Does it suggest that he could be winning championships for most of the next decade? Unequivocally. He will have to deal with Lorenzo and Pedrosa, Vinales and hermano pequeño Alex, perhaps an Espargaro or a Redding. But he will ultimately find himself in a place where guys like Michael Jordan, Peyton Manning and Michael Schumacher end up. In a league of their own, competing with themselves. And whether you’re a fan of #93 or not, it is a privilege to watch him do his job.

 

The Japanese Grand Prix goes off at 1 am EDT on Sunday. We’ll catch the video later in the morning and have results right here Sunday afternoon. Konichiwa.

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Lorenzo Wins at Motegi; Title Up for Grabs in Spain

October 27, 2013

Read all about it on Motorcycle.com.  Too tired tonight to do all the cutting and pasting.

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Posted in Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, MotoGP, MotoGP Motegi, Motorcycle Racing | 4 Comments »

MotoGP Motegi Preview

October 23, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  Enjoy this article with some great photos on Motorcycle.com.

For Marquez, securing the title in Japan would be poetic 

In all likelihood, Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquez thought he would cement the 2013 premier class title in Australia.  The well-publicized fiasco surrounding the tires and the mandatory mid-race pit stop put that vision on hold for a week.  How fitting would it be for the boy wonder to recover from the embarrassing Australian flap by winning his first 1000cc championship in front of the factory brass on their home turf? 

Marquez in Sepang 2013For the young Catalan, last week must have been like waking up on Christmas morning, preparing to sneak downstairs, only to be told by his parents that Christmas had regrettably been pushed back a week.  The Grinch, in this case, was a composite of Bridgestone, who thought it unnecessary (!) to test their tires on the new Phillip Island racing surface, and Race Direction, which must have had several penalties to select from, and chose the most draconian option available.  Marquez’ Repsol team was also in the mix, as it appears they were trying to take advantage of the technicality that their garage actually sat in front of the start/finish line.

No matter.  What’s a week in the life of the 20 year-old Marquez, who sits on the cusp of what could be a decade of premier class domination?  Without wishing to venture near any conspiracy theories, there must be a contingent of Dorna and Honda executives who would prefer to see him win it all at Motegi.  They will probably fish their wish. 

Recent History at Motegi

In 2010, Pedrosa trashed his Repsol Honda in practice when the throttle stuck open, fracturing his collarbone and basically handing the 2010 title to Yamaha’s ascendant Jorge Lorenzo.  Casey Stoner wrestled his Ducati to the win, followed by Andrea Dovizioso on the #2 Repsol Honda and Yamaha Bruise Brothers Rossi and Lorenzo.   The race had originally been scheduled for the spring, but was moved back six months by the volcanic eruption in Iceland that disrupted air travel in Europe for a few weeks.

In 2011, Rossi crashed out early on his Ducati, leaving the way open for Pedrosa to cruise to an easy home win.  He was followed to the flag by Lorenzo and Stoner, completing the podium.  In the best run of the day, Marco Simoncelli piloted his Gresini Honda to fourth place, sneaking past Dovizioso and his factory Honda by 14/100ths of a second at the flag.  (Simoncelli would finish second at Phillip Island two weeks later, only to be lost to us forever the following week in Malaysia.)  Honda riders occupied four of the top five slots at the finish.

Last year, Pedrosa again whipped Lorenzo, with satellite Honda pilot Alvaro Bautista coming in third.  Honda’s 2011 Motegi domination continued, with four of the top six finishers riding for the home team.  This year, the factory Yamahas will bring their version of the seamless shift transmission to The Land of the Rising Sun.  But the Repsol Honda team will bring its shiny new counterweight—Marc Marquez.  

End Games

Marquez, as is true pretty much everywhere, generally does well at Motegi.  He won his last 125 race there in 2010, finished two seconds Big Three - Australiabehind Joe Iannone in the Moto2 class in 2011, and won again last year.  The 2013 Japanese Grand Prix figures to be a Repsol Honda clambake; Marquez need only finish third* to eliminate Pedrosa, and can clinch the 2013 title with a win.  Pedrosa could win the race and still find himself eliminated at the end of the day, giving meaning to the expression winning the battle while losing the war.

*Marquez would have 314 points, which Pedrosa could conceivably reach, however Marquez holds the tiebreaker based upon more wins.

Let’s get real here.  Barring calamities befalling both Marquez and Lorenzo, Dani Pedrosa is not going to win the 2013 title.  This leaves defending double world champion Jorge Lorenzo as the last obstacle remaining for Marquez.  Assuming Lorenzo could find a way to win this week and again in Valenciana—a super-sized assumption—what would the rookie need to do to hold on to his lead?

Would need to accumulate 33 points in the next two rounds, as Lorenzo would hold the tiebreaker.  Oddly, there are not many ways to accumulate 33 points in two MotoGP rounds, assuming no wins.  He would need a second and a fourth or better, which could be a little tricky.  But not as tricky as Lorenzo winning this weekend.  The oddsmakers have installed Lorenzo at 2:1, which to me seems WAY low.  If I were managing a gambling book, I would put him at closer to 10:1, given Pedrosa’s recent history at Motegi, Marquez’ season to date, and the layout of the track, which is as unfriendly to the 2013 Yamaha M-1 as any circuit on the tour.

Enough Already.  What About the Other Riders? 

The only factor that will have a material effect upon the standings among the top eight riders concerns the condition of LCR Honda pilot Stefan Bradl’s broken ankle.  He tried it at Phillip Island and was no go, no question.  He will try it again this weekend.  Not knowing the extent of the damage, it is safe to say only that he will be in a lot of pain if he ends up racing at all, and is unlikely to find himself in the top six.  Sure, you’re thinking, Colin Edwards podiumed a week after breaking his collarbone in 2011, but ankles are far more critical to riding these machines than are collarbones.

Past, Present and Future Champions full finalGlancing quickly at the standings, Rossi will end the year fourth, Cal Crutchlow fifth and Bautista sixth.  Dovizioso and Nicky Hayden, the factory Ducati contingent, could sneak up into seventh and eighth places, respectively, at Bradl’s expense.  CRT top dog Aleix Espargaro is likely to do better this weekend than Tech 3 Yamaha’s #2 Bradley Smith, and could challenge for a top ten finish for the year.  Espargaro is a baller, and will be even tougher next year on the Forward Racing production Yamaha, especially with little brother Pol on the grid snapping at his heels.

You’re Probably Wondering About the Weekend Weather

Determined to avoid any tasteless references to radioactivity or riders glowing in the dark, the weather at Motegi could present a challenge.  The forecast, courtesy of Weather.com, calls for rain and cool temps on Friday and Saturday, perfect conditions for early lap high sides during practice.  Sunday is expected to be sunny, with highs in the 60’s after dipping down into the 40’s on Saturday night.  Expect plenty of complaining, especially from the Ducati guys, about the difficulty of finding settings in wet practice sessions that will work in a dry race.  All of which we’ve heard before.  The three riders who end up on the podium will have had to deal with the same conditions, but will find ways to be successful.  Poor carpenters blame their tools.

As the 2013 season approaches its finale, I’m in the mood for a little predicting, which drives the editors here mad.  Too bad.  I like Marquez, Pedrosa and Lorenzo, in that order.  If I’m right—stranger things have happened—Marc Marquez will wrap up his first premier class title on Sunday, and everyone can relax on the way to the anticlimactic season ender in—go figure—Spain.

We’ll have Motegi results here on Sunday morning.  Enjoy the race.

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