Archive for the ‘Honda’ Category

Moto2 Valencia Results

November 19, 2018

© Bruce Allen

Oliveira cruises to Pyrrhic victory 

Sunday’s Moto2 season finale was just one of those races. Polesitter Luca Marini got tangled up with two MotoGP promotees, Pecco Bagnaia and Joan Mir, and just like that three of the day’s strongest favorites were scootering back to their garages, their day and bike trashed but their futures as bright as ever.  

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Trouble in Turn 2, Lap 1

With those three out of the way, Miguel Oliveira caressed his KTM to an easy win, having already lost the War of 2018 to Bagnaia. The weather sucked. The 97,000 fans saw a lot of crashes all day and got soaked for their trouble. If they arrived in time to watch the earlier Moto3 race they saw history being made—more on that later. Otherwise, it was a high-side festival in the wet with 29 seconds between first and fourth positions. A demolition parade, if you will. Very un-Moto2-ish.

Marc Marquez, the struggling Estella Galicia rider, younger brother of The King, won the Moto3 championship in 2014 and looked to be, as rumored, at least as fast as Marc. He has since spent the last four seasons underperforming in Moto2. He has made a career, at this point, of crashing out of contention, and is the main reason his team went winless in 2018 for the first time since The Armistice.

Marquez led much of the day, at home, looking the way he was always supposed to look. Having gone through on Oliveira into the lead on Lap 6, he found himself under constant pressure from the KTM #44. He again demonstrated how rain magnifies errors, turning them from twitchy little momentary heart-stoppers to crash and burn road rash, with river rocks in your nether regions. Our firm expectation that he would crash was met on Lap 14 in Turn 14, a slide-off which allowed him to re-mount and ultimately finish third, so great had been his lead at the time. Iker Lecuona accompanied Oliveira through and captured second place. (Having rarely seen Lecuona’s name written, I always heard the Brit announcers saying “Ikaleukawana” which, as you might expect, reminded me of the old Hawaiian rider Kamanawannalaya.)

So the last race of the Honda era of Moto2 was a bummer for pretty much everyone but Oliveira and KTM. The records have been set, the memories burned in, and a new era begins next week as the Triumph 765cc three-cylinder monsters take their place, a whole new ball game commencing in 2019. The four graduates into MotoGP—Bagnaia (Pramac Ducati), Oliveira (Tech 3 KTM), Mir (Suzuki Ecstar) and Quartararo (Petronas Yamaha) will move on up the food chain, leaving as Moto2 favorites guys with names like Brad Binder, Lorenzo Baldassarri, Luca Marini and Xavi Vierge to slug it out for the championship. They will be joined by Moto3 fast movers Jorge Martin and Marco Bezzecchi, presumably keeping Moto2 (and the Red Bull Rookies Cup) healthy and thriving. The racing is, on occasion, astonishing.

We will keep you posted on happenings in Moto2 during testing and the off-season. It’s about time.

MotoGP Valencia Results

November 18, 2018

© Bruce Allen.      Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Feel-Good Conclusion to Season of Changes 

With the championship already decided, what was there left for fans to root for in the MotoGP finale at Valencia? How about Pol Espargaro earning his first ever premier class podium? How about him doing it on a KTM machine, giving the Austrian factory their first MotoGP podium as well? How about Alex Rins giving Suzuki four podia in a row for the first time since 1994 and establishing his dominance over your boy Johann Zarco? 

Practice and Qualifying 

Three wet practice sessions on Friday and Saturday morning found an interesting group headed directly into Q2. A few names you’re used to seeing—Marquez, Dovi, Alex Rins. And a few you rarely see—Danilo Petrucci, big man on campus, heading the list, Dani Pedrosa, in his Swan Song, and the Espargaro brothers, Aleix and Pol, together again, still shoving their respective stones up the mountain. Vinales and Rossi were nowhere to be seen in the spray, and the Q1 field was mostly full of guys with no reason to ride hard today. Bautista. Lorenzo. Bradley Smith. Scott Redding.

As if it needed to be less important, qualifying took place on an almost dry track. Andrea Iannone and Vinales led the Q1 lot, leaving Jorge Lorenzo (13th) and former world champion Valentino Rossi (16th) pondering cosmic questions. Marquez went down at the infamous Turn 4 on his first flying lap and re-injured his left shoulder. He was wheeled into the medical center, his left shoulder assembly unbolted, a new, pre-homologated shoulder module ratcheted on, whence he saddled up again and went back out with six minutes left. He could do no better than the middle of the second row. LOL. He has also used up his allotment of replacement joints for 2018. The front row of Vinales, Rins and Dovizioso looked strong, although I’m never fully convinced about The Maverick. 

The Three Races

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History was made today in the Moto3 race. If you would like to find out how, without any nasty spoilers, check the in-depth coverage of the race tomorrow at MotoGPforDummies.com.

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Early drama in Moto2

Today’s Moto2 tilt, the last of the 600cc Honda era, featured a multi-rider crash on the first lap that removed several notables from the festivities. The herd having been thinned, the field was cleared for the eventual winner, making the season’s final standings appear closer than they actually were. If you would like to find out more, check the in-depth coverage of the race Tuesday at MotoGPforDummies.com.

The first MotoGP race of the day was red-flagged after 13 laps when the rain, which had been annoying all day, went all Bubba Gump mid-race, forcing a re-start featuring 16 riders and 14 laps. By that time, both Espargaros, Jack Miller, Michele Pirro, Danilo Petrucci, Tom Luthi and Marquez were already down; Pol and Pirro were allowed to re-enter the race and started the second go.

Andrea Dovizioso, Alex Rins and Valentino Rossi quickly re-established a lead group after Maverick Vinales, who had been solid in the first race, crashed on the opening lap, with Rossi going through on Rins on Lap 7 and setting his sights on Dovi. The magic of a decade ago once again failed to materialize for The Doctor as he crashed off the podium for the second round in a row. At that point, it was clear sailing for Dovizioso, Rins found himself on the second step, and Pol Espargaro, coming unglued, stood on a MotoGP podium for the first, and probably not the last, time, in KTM colors.

Probably the best outcome one could have hoped for on a wet, gray afternoon postscript. If you like watching high-side crashes, be sure to catch the replay at MotoGP.com later in the week. A dreadful conclusion to a dreadful season for Team Yamaha, as Repsol Honda clinched the triple crown—rider champion, team  champion and constructor champion. After the race, Lin Jarvis looked nauseous. 

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Another satisfying win for Andrea Dovizioso.

As for the reference to change, today’s race found riders named Rins, Espargaro, Nakagami and Syahrin in the top ten, and riders named Lorenzo, Rossi, Bautista and Petrucci on the outside looking in. We eagerly anticipate the arrival of Mssrs. Bagnaia, Oliveira, Mir and Quartararo from Moto2. We said goodbye to Dani Pedrosa after a distinguished career, ignoring for now the whole ship pilot’s license fraud tempest and the tax stuff. And we wish the best to the other riders leaving the premier class after today, including Alvaro Bautista, Scott Redding, Jodi Torres, Bradley Smith and Tom Luthi. 

In Retrospect

Our friend Old MOron, in a letter to my advice column that I wrote for him, inquired as to my opinion regarding a key point in the season, perhaps The Turning Point of 2018. In my humble opinion, the turning point of the season occurred between May 6th and May 20th. Heading to Jerez, Dovizioso led Marquez by a single point, with both Vinales and Crutchlow right there with them. Leaving Le Mans, Marquez led Vinales 95 to 59, with Zarco at 58 and Rossi at 56. The big crash at Jerez, which violently removed Lorenzo, Dovizioso and Pedrosa from the proceedings, was the key crash in a season full of them. Dovizioso’s second consecutive out in France sealed things for him; 2018 wasn’t going to be a repeat of 2017. Someone else would have to beat Marquez this season, and that someone turned out to be no one.

Marquez was in front of the maelstrom in Spain and went on to win the race. He won again at Le Mans; 50 points in two rounds. Meanwhile, the people who would be trailing him after Round 5 scored as follows:

_________________Before Jerez           After Le Mans

Vinales         18                3rd                         2nd

Zarco           20                5th                         3rd

Rossi            27                7th                         4th

Petrucci        33                10th                        5th

Miller            23                8th                         6th

Crutchlow       8               4th                         8th

Dovizioso       0               1st                          9th

Up until Jerez, one might have argued that any of four or five riders had a legitimate shot at the title. My prediction that Marquez would accrue fewer than 298 points looked like a brick. Overlooked in all of this was his mental Mardi Gras in Argentina which resulted in a bizarre out-of-the-points finish, a performance unlikely to be repeated in this life cycle, at a race he could have easily won. Had he done so—he dominated practice—he would have accumulated 346 points and completed one of the highest scoring seasons in MotoGP history, winning the title by a margin of 102 points over Dovizioso.

The stalling of Marquez’ bike at Rio Hondo, perhaps, saved 2018 from being, from a competitive standpoint, one of the worst seasons in recent memory. Pity. Pity for guys like Dani Pedrosa and Alvaro Bautista. Pity for the fans in Valencia, who ended up with a kind of JV game. Plus, in a final slap in the face to the author, no new track record was recorded here this weekend, putting us 8 for 14 for the year. Further analysis will be available on the blog. 

Marc Marquez: New Kid in Town

This year’s inspirational text, intended to evoke the arc of modern MotoGP fan history, is borrowed from the Eagles’ song “New Kid in Town.” These days, that kid is Marc Marquez. Marquez this, Marquez that. There have been Lorenzo and Stoner and Rossi and Hailwood and Rainey and Roberts and Lawson, on down the line. Each had his reign. Each was considered the eighth wonder of the world in his day. And each will fade, or has already faded, inexorably into memory, some more vivid than others; the changing colors and numbers in the sea of pennants at races over the years attest to this.

Back in 2011, I wanted to post these words in a salute to the late Marco Simoncelli, as an editorial on the fragile nature of life and fame. It got red-penciled.

The rider who can regularly beat Marc Marquez isn’t in MotoGP yet. But he’s coming. And when he arrives, these words will be running through my head.

“There’s talk on the street; it sounds so familiar.
Great expectations, everybody’s watching you.
People you meet, they all seem to know you.
Even your old friends treat you like you’re something new.
Johnny come lately, the new kid in town.
Everybody loves you, so don’t let them down…

There’s talk on the street; it’s there to remind you
that it doesn’t really matter which side you’re on.
You’re walking away and they’re talking behind you.
They will never forget you till somebody new comes along.
Where you been lately? There’s a new kid in town.
Everybody loves him, don’t they?…”

If you’d like, you can listen to the entire song here. Crank it up and sing along, if that’s how you roll.

Thanks to all of you gearheads and grandpas who make it a point to read this stuff during the season. I look forward to your comments every time out. I hope to be covering MotoGP for Motorcycle.com next year. But if, as Huey Lewis used to sing, “this is it,” after ten years, I will miss the pageviews but will continue to flog away at what has become my favorite sport at the MotoGPforDummies.com blog until it becomes work or I keel over.

Lorenzo and Marquez Over the Years

November 15, 2018

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Rossi: “10th is possible.” LOL.

November 13, 2018

MotoGP News: Rossi on 2019

“Sepang was a strong indicator there’s life in ‘The Doctor’ yet and could title number 10 come in 2019?”

This is the kind of clatter Dorna pays young people to write about big merchandise sellers. Rossi, indeed, led the Malaysian GP for most of the race. Under brutal conditions, with highly motivated riders snapping at his boot heels, on a suspect bike. He finally low-sided, succumbing to the pressure, the heat, his age, and, ultimately, the laws of physics. Fully aware of the limits of tire adhesion, he had to ask more of the front than it was willing or able to give him in order to maintain his lead over the loathsome Marquez. This sensation, then, is what it’s like to be a rider not named Marquez in the late 20-teens. You choose–watch him win, or crash. Like the old chi-chi joke they tell Down Under.

Vinales and Rossi promo shot

2017 photo

Just to be clear. Put Rossi in as a contender for 2019, and add Dovi, Vinales, and any other rider you want. I’ll take Marquez against the lot of them. To suggest, as the headline suggests, that a 10th world championship is there for the taking in 2019 based upon 16 solid laps in Sepang is fatuous. The things people do for money.

Marquez MotoGP Point Totals, by year

2013     334

2014     362

2015     242

2016     298

2017     298

2018     321+ Valencia

In short, his best year since 2014, when he made The All-Universe team. The ten-for-ten start? Remember? Dovi has had his year–2017. Rossi had his two decades. Vinales is not as good on the Yamaha as expected, and the 2019 that Rossi rode a few months ago was pronounced ‘no big improvement.’. Lorenzo can be expected to have another hellified learning curve. Zarco is fast but he’s older. Rins and Mir would need two solid years on the Suzuki to have their choice of rides for 2021/22, and one or the other could conceivably challenge MM for the championship in, like, 2022. All the Moto2 grads except Mir will be on satellite teams, and all will have their work cut out for them; Bagnaia could be the exception to that rule. KTM doesn’t appear to have a prayer in 2019; beyond that is anybody’s guess.

In short, to me it looks like clear sailing for Marc Marquez for the next three years. During this time, Pedrosa, Rossi, maybe Dovizioso and Crutchlow will age out/retire. The Young Guns with the big reputations will begin showing up on their million dollar handmade custom machines and are likely to be quick from the start. The continuing evolution of the sport, the machines and the men who ride them, is remarkable, as the science of going fast on two wheels becomes ever more complicated and intense. The money, the pressure, the pace, the heat, Newton’s laws, all of it is high-stakes, all-in, digitized, balls-to-the-wall execution at impossible speeds, tire marks on leathers, margins in the thousandths of a second. At least eight new track records in 2018.

There’s nothing like it, and it’s getting better.

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MotoGP Valencia Preview

November 12, 2018

© Bruce Allen     Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

The Curtain Falls on Another Marquez Masterpiece 

MotoGP’s traditional Valenciana finalé, in years like this, resembles a boxing match in which the undercards are vaguely entertaining, and the main event is moved from late Saturday night to Tuesday afternoon and closed to the public. Sure, it would still be great to have a ticket. Even with all three championships decided, you could still get solidly buzzed, maybe work on your tan, and stoke a few adrenaline rushes of your own for your €100. Get your picture taken with a bunch of bored fashion models, too. 

There’s teammates Rossi and Vinales battling for rear grip and third place; we’re picking Rossi, who can do more with less than Vinales. You’ve got Alex Rins, Johann Zarco and Danilo Petrucci locked in an interesting joust for fifth which Rins will win, setting off a mild celebration in my kitchen. Alvaro Bautista may be auditioning for 2020. Franco Morbidelli appears to be a lock for Rookie of the Year. And guys always want to win races, so there will be plenty of hair-raising action, if not as much urgency. Still, at 180 mph, it’s never really dull.

With three classes competing, and a dizzying array of sub-championships to be awarded—team, constructor, color scheme, catering, brolly girls—trying to provide an overview would turn this into a term paper. As we used to claim in grad school, giddy, smugly, “Such questions are, unfortunately, beyond the scope of this paper.” Look ‘em up and share with the group. 

Recent History 

No one who reads this stuff is likely to forget the 2015 season finale, at which Jorge Lorenzo won from pole while his loathed championship rival and “teammate” Valentino Rossi, having been penalized for his encounter with Marquez in Sepang two weeks prior, was forced to start from the back of the grid and could only (only!) make his way back to fourth place at the finish.  There was additional controversy as to why the Repsol Honda team, especially Marquez, appeared to ride as wingmen for Lorenzo, never seriously challenging him over the last few laps. Rossi fans will never get over 2015. And so it goes.

Two years ago, Lorenzo was anxious for a win in his final race for Yamaha, wanting to go out on top after a difficult season.  Marquez wanted to cap off his third premier class title with an exclamation point, as well as to avoid an awkward podium celebration. Jorge ended up winning the race, Marquez secured the title, and the podium celebration was awkward; the Spanish national anthem blaring in the background, Lorenzo over-celebrating and Marquez looking somewhat abashed, as if he, the 2017 world champion, were crashing Lorenzo’s party, along with Andrea Iannone who was, in fact, crashing Lorenzo’s party.

Last year, we at MO had been chanting the mantra, “Let Valencia Decide” since March. With the title unsettled heading into the November weekend, the opportunity for a riveting finale existed (if only mathematically), Marquez holding a 21-point lead over Ducati pilot Andrea Dovizioso as the riders lined up on the grid. The math caught up with Dovi on Lap 25 when, desperate to get past insubordinate teammate Jorge Lorenzo, he ran hot into Turn 8, ultimately laying his GP17 down gently in the gravel. And so the 2017 championship, having been essentially decided some weeks earlier, concluded, as usual, at Valencia, with Pedrosa, Zarco and Marquez on the podium. In all likelihood it was Dani Pedrosa’s last career MotoGP win.

Screenshot (333)Finishing Strong – Points Since Silverstone 

Constantly looking for ways to shore up my passive-aggressive support of Alex Rins and Suzuki, I thought we could take a look at point totals since the cluster at Silverstone. I’ve taken the liberty of removing Marquez and his 120 points from the mix to add to the illusion.

Andrea Dovizioso               91

Alex Rins                           83

Maverick Vinales                80

Valentino Rossi                  53

Andrea Iannone                 49

Johann Zarco                     45

Alvaro Bautista                  42

Danilo Petrucci                   39

Conclusions? None. Suggestions? Plenty.

Rins says the new engine he received at Assen made a difference; the numbers support that. (Iannone has benefited from the change, too.) Bautista has been punching above his weight on a GP17. Petrucci is saving himself for the factory money. Cal Crutchlow is on IR, and Dani has been reduced to a sentimental favorite. As the current crop of Aliens, excluding #93, begins to age out, who will be the New Kids in Town in the next few years? Names like Mir, Bagnaia, Martin and Bezzechi would be my guess. These four, especially, seem to be highly upwardly-mobile. Careers in the ascendancy, as it were. [The winner of this year’s Pithy Quote award is herein foreshadowed; it is the abridged lyrics to a 70’s song. Hint: MO wouldn’t post it in 2011.]

Several talented riders who will be working for KTM during this period might appear above, were it not for two small words pertaining to their MotoGP program:

  1. Over.
  2. Rated

Further, I think it entirely possible that Suzuki could, so to speak, overtake Yamaha for #2 in the constructors’ championship once they secure a satellite team. (Loyal readers will recognize much of the preceding as a feeble attempt to generate controversy late in the season.) These days, Suzuki is doing more with less than Big Bad Blue. Those of you with long memories will recall Bautista riding for Suzuki back in the day. Wouldn’t it be cool to see that again in 2020.

Your Weekend Forecast

The long-range forecast for the greater Valencia area over the weekend calls for Silverstone-like conditions, temps in the 60’s and “light” rain in the area all three days. If the forecast holds, those of you with imaginary bookies might consider giving them an imaginary call and placing a small imaginary wager on a rider like Jack Miller or Danilo Petrucci or even, at the right odds, Hafizh Syahrin to win on Sunday. A flag-to-flag finale with so many riders injured or otherwise unconcerned about the outcome could provide an opportunity for substantial imaginary returns on some, um, dark horses. Like Johann Zarco. Alex Rins.

Dani Pedrosa.

Screenshot (330)Valentino Rossi.

In the autumn of 2018, the height of The Marquez Era, the 2018 title securely stashed away, a number of riders entertain semi-realistic hopes of winning the Grand Prix of Valencia. But until Marquez clinches a title, he has become viewed as mostly unassailable. He wrestles the quick, fractious Honda RC213V into submission and will beat you if he’s able. He has learned patience and the right time to attack. He does not back away from contact. He makes saves on a routine basis that leave other riders shaking their heads. He’s 25 years old.

We’ll return Sunday with results, analysis and epilogue.[ BTW, I peeked at the 2018 Season Preview, preparing for the 2018 Report Card, and found myself to be pretty much dead on with the notable exception of #26, who wrecked my bracket. Otherwise, had it pretty much nailed. Lorenzo DNFs and DNSs killed his season. Petrucci won his factory seat for 2019 and nothing else afterwards. Whatever. Plenty of good reasons to watch the race on Sunday and argue about it on DISQUS.]

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We Shoulda Known Back Then

November 1, 2018

UNEARTHED 2013 SPREADSHEET JPEG

The chart shows each rider’s results during his first premier class season. When I found this file, the last column didn’t exist. I went back and completed the last column.

Did we mention, in November 2013, that Marc Marquez had just completed the most astonishing rookie season in modern MotoGP history? I thought the numbers I had plugged in for him prior to the start of the season were impressive–3rd in the championship behind Lorenzo and Rossi, a couple of wins, a bunch of podiums.

He blew away every reasonable expectation that year, scoring half again as many points as I or most anyone else expected. 16 podiums in 18 rounds. A single DNF and a silly DQ in Australia. A premier class title that didn’t look all that difficult. When he started 2014 with 10 consecutive wins pretty much everyone realized. Had we paid attention at the end of the 2013 season, we would have known that much sooner. He was a prodigy then. He may become the greatest of all time.

MotoGP Motegi Results

October 21, 2018

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Marquez Wins, Claims 7th World Championship 

The 2018 MotoGP World Championship came to a screeching, grinding halt today in a Japanese gravel trap on Lap 23 of the Motul Grand Prix of Japan. It fell to earth in the person of Italian Andrea Dovizioso who, chasing Marc Marquez for the lead, lost the front in Turn 10. Everyone knew there was going to be no stopping Marquez this year. Still, the moment the title is decided, weeks too early, is just a big ol’ bummer. But there it is. 

MM victory continues

Picture from 2014, but you get the idea.

Practice and Qualifying 

The top five on the timesheets for FP1 and FP3 were sufficiently similar to suggest who might expect podium treatment on Sunday. FP1 was topped by Dovizioso, Crutchlow, Zarco, Marquez and Vinales. FP3 included Dovizioso, Crutchlow, Zarco, Marquez and Rossi. FP2 was wet enough to keep a number of riders in their garages, so, once again, it came down to FP3 to separate the Q1 goats from the Q2 lambs. Eight of the top ten riders in the world championship went directly to Q2, the lone exceptions being Danilo Petrucci, having a miserable weekend on the Ducati GP19, and Jorge Lorenzo, who declared himself out of Sunday’s race due to a wrist injury suffered in Thailand. This allowed Dani Pedrosa and Jack Miller to sneak directly into Q2.

In a fun Q1, Alvaro Bautista (Angel Nieto Ducati) and Taka Nakagami (LCR Honda) teamed up to punk KTM’s Brit Bradley Smith, both laying down fast laps very late in the session to deny Smith the glory of passing into Q2. Once there, unfortunately, they did very little, ending up sharing row four with Dani Pedrosa.

As has become the custom, Q2 got trés busy late in the session. For a while, it appeared Crutchlow and Marquez would sit 1 and 2, Honda executives praying to any number of gods for deliverance from Gigi Dall’Igna. Alas, their prayers went unanswered, as Jack Miller threw his Ducati GP17 across the line into second before he crashed out at Turn 5. As the session closed, Andrea Dovizioso hammered his way onto pole, and the prodigal Frenchman, Johann Zarco, blew past Miller into second place, leaving the factory Hondas and Yamahas off the front row for, like, the first time since The Berlin Wall came down.

With conditions on Saturday pretty good, Dovi put in a pole lap of 1:44.590. This compares to 2015, when the top six qualifiers beat his time using Bridgestone tires. (Can’t remember when the control ECUs came on board.) Lorenzo’s brilliant pole lap that day, 1:43.790, is a full eight-tenths faster than Dovizioso’s on Saturday. Track record intact; season record now stands at 8 for 13 as I continue to seek support for my prediction that track records “would fall like dominos” in 2018. From this perspective, Motegi appears to be an outlier. Oh, and let’s not forget Lorenzo’s unique ability to qualify Yamahas on the front row. On Bridgestones.

If Marc Marquez intended to win the title on Sunday, as his gold helmet clearly suggested, he would have his work cut out for him, starting from sixth place against Dovi’s pole. The first lap could easily tell the story. 

The Japanese Grand Prix – 2018 in Microcosm 

If you’ve followed the 2018 season, you will have a pretty good understanding of how today’s race unfolded. Aside from Jack Miller, who started third, veered into Johann Zarco’s path at the start, and stayed with the leaders until Lap 5, it was Dovizioso and Marquez from the very start. Cal Crutchlow and Valentino Rossi occupied third and fourth, with Miller in 5th being stalked by both of the Suzukis, Alex Rins and Andrea Iannone. By mid-race, Dovi and Marquez had put some space between themselves and their chasers. Keeping the pace relatively slow, they allowed a few lower tranche riders—Rossi, Rins and Iannone—to enjoy visions of sugarplums dancing in their heads. For a while.

Finally, at Turn 9 on Lap 21, Marquez went through on Dovizioso and made it stick. Dovi, season on the line, chased the Spaniard desperately for two laps before losing the front in Turn 10 of Lap 23 and sliding off. He would re-enter the race and end his day in 18th position, out of the money, reduced to looking forward to 2019.

The more astute readers out there will realize about now that today’s race was, in fact, nothing like the 2018 season in microcosm. I happened to be reaching for a section header. It won’t happen again.

Dovi’s crash out of second place improved life for Cal Crutchlow, who ended up second, and Alex Rins on the Suzuki, who found himself on the podium for the first time since Assen after having started eighth. Rossi finished a kind of limp fourth, while Yamaha teammate Maverick Vinales could do no better than seventh. The fear amongst Yamaha bigwigs that Buriram (a third and a fourth) was a fluke has now been confirmed.

With top chasers Dovizioso and Rossi off the podium today, a measure of Marquez’ dominance this year was to be found on the podium itself. If one were to take Cal Crutchlow’s point total for the year (148) and add it to Alex Rins’ (118), it would still fall short of Marquez and his 296.

Clearly, my prediction that Marquez would end 2018 with fewer than 298 points was worthless. At least he won’t be able to top Rossi’s 2009 total of 373. That would have been awful. 

The Big Picture 

Most sports leagues set up their season so that there are a few exhibition matches early on, with tension building up to the last game of the season, the one deciding the championship. MotoGP, due to the nature of the game in The Marquez Era, holds the climactic race in, like, Week 16 or 17, then plays a couple exhibition matches to close out the year. By which time most of the owners and fans have jumped on their yachts and sailed off for Barbados.

This is a pity for the fans attending the races in Australia, Malaysia and Valencia. There will continue to be the little “races within the race” that light up so many true believers. There will be, one expects, continuing efforts to set new track records at the remaining venues. For all involved, it’s kind of like macular degeneration. The big picture shrinks; the importance of team and individual accomplishments is elevated the moment the title moves out of reach. From then on, it’s pretty much down to Beat Your Teammate. Once the trophy has been won, most of the competitive air leaves the balloon.

When I was new to MotoGP I didn’t clearly understand what people meant when, at this point in the season, they would say, “Man, I can’t wait for the Valencia test.” I now know fully what this means. Between now and then I plan to post nothing but Monty Python and Peter Sellers videos. 

Tranches 

After Buriram

Tranche 1:   Marquez, Dovizioso

Tranche 2:   Rossi, Lorenzo, Petrucci, Crutchlow, Rins, Pedrosa

Tranche 3:   Zarco, Viñales, A Espargaro, Miller, Iannone, Bautista

Tranche 4:   Morbidelli, P Espargaro, Smith, Nakagami,

Tranche 5:   Redding, Abraham, Luthi, Syahrin and Simeon

After Motegi

Tranche 1:   Marquez, Dovizioso

Tranche 2:   Rossi, Viñales, Crutchlow, Zarco, Rins, Bautista

Tranche 3:   Petrucci, Morbidelli, Pedrosa, Iannone, Lorenzo, Miller

Tranche 4:   P Espargaro, Smith, Nakagami, A Espargaro, Syahrin

Tranche 5:   Redding, Abraham, Luthi, and Simeon

Head Down, Keep Rowing

Next week in Australia, perhaps the most scenic venue on the calendar. The winds on the southern side of Australia can be fearsome, with cold temps, gray skies and seagulls. We will bring you a preview on Wednesday or thereabouts.

MotoGP Motegi Preview

October 16, 2018

© Bruce Allen

Marquez stands on cusp of fifth title 

And so the 2018 MotoGP season comes down to this, a showdown in The Land of the Rising Sun. Home MotoGP track, basically, for Suzuki, Honda and Yamaha; much face at stake. Two samurai riders, Ducati’s Andrea Dovizioso and Honda’s Marc Marquez, expecting to go one-on-one for a title so close Marquez can smell it. Much too early in the season for all this. Elsewhere, Yamaha will be watched closely for continuing progress from their recent knees-up in Thailand, or will it be back to the drawing board again? 

  • Center court. Match point. The first of four; he’s serving. Down love-40. On your heels.
  • Game seven, down three, top of the ninth, 0-2 count, two men on base, star closer on the mound, heart thumping like a piston. 63,000 fans going mental hating you.
  • Some soccer thing, leading scorer, limping, down two late in the game, etc. Wet field. Hooligans talking about your mother.
  • NBA game seven, 1.6 seconds left, down three, at the line shooting three. You’re a 70% free-throw shooter late in your career. Miss one and it could be all over. All over.

For those of you who, like me, know more about other sports than they do about MotoGP, these are presented to give you a sense of what I think it will feel like on Sunday for Andrea Dovizioso as he is aligned, clutch depressed, taching up, waiting for the red lights to go out. 237 furious horses beneath him and his chances of making it to a second match point appear thin; everything has to go right. The pressure is beyond comprehension, even for the usually-unflappable Italian. And there’s #93 over there, looking fast and relaxed, Bushido celebration ready in the wings.  

Recent History at Motegi

2015–Dani Pedrosa chose Motegi to make his annual stand, leading Rossi and Lorenzo to the line in a wet-ish affair.  Marquez struggled into fourth place ahead of Dovizioso.  Rossi and Lorenzo chewed up Bridgestone rain tires on a drying surface; Pedrosa, winless all season and dawdling in the middle of the pack for a while, came on strong at the end. This was the race in which Lorenzo dominated all weekend on dry track and finished 12 seconds back in the wet. Rossi left Japan leading the series by 18 points with three rounds left, a virtual lock for his 10th world championship—you know, the one that was purportedly unlocked by Marc Marquez on the melting macadam of Sepang and for which most of you have never forgiven him. Scoreboard.

2016–For the third time in four seasons, Marquez claimed the MotoGP world championship.  He did it by winning the Japanese Grand Prix while the Bruise Brothers of the factory Yamaha team—Jorge Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi—choked on the bile of their rivalry, both riders crashing out of a race in which neither could afford the slightest error. Lorenzo’s forthcoming departure from the team after Valencia appeared to be a sound idea.

Last year, in a replay of their Red Bull Ring duel earlier that season, Ducati #1 Andrea Dovizioso and Marc Marquez gave us another late-race blades-at-close-quarters wheezer, a ten-point spread in the 2017 standings at stake. And for the second time that season, Dovizioso prevailed in what was almost a carbon copy of his earlier win in Austria. In winning the match, Dovi cut his deficit to Marquez from 16 points to 11 with two rounds left. (Marquez would employ the lesson he learned that day to win the same way last time out at Buriram.) Like Rossi in 2015, things would come unglued for Dovizioso at Sepang a week later. 2017, one reckons, might have been the high-water mark of Dovi’s career, likely destined to join Pedrosa as top premier class riders who coulda, woulda, shoulda, had it not been for Rossi/Stoner/Lorenzo/Marquez etc.

Marquez has clinched half of his four premier class titles in The Land of the Rising Sun. He is poised to make it three for five on Sunday. Leading by 77 points, the only thing the Catalan riding machine needs is to dispense with Dovizioso and he becomes, once again, MotoGP champion, gripping the world of grand prix motorcycle racing firmly by the sack and inviting it, in Castillian Spanish, to come play. As Elvis used to drawl so eloquently, “Oh man, it’s good to be The King.” Pronounced it “kang.” He was right.

Rins vs. Zarco

Rins Zarco Crutchlow

Rins, Zarco and Crutchlow. Anyone recognize the venue?

I’m hearing from a number of readers that the tranching of the Suzuki #1 and Tech 3 #1 riders should be reversed based upon, I suppose, 2018 body of work, recent performance, standings. How about performance in the second half of the season?

Rins:

Wins:                                        0

Podiums:                                   2

DNFs                                         4

Points:                                      102

Position:                                    10th

Points since Sachsenring:      49

Zarco:

Wins:                                        0

Podiums:                                   2

DNFs                                         1

Points:                                      123

Position:                                    8th

Points since Sachsenring:      35

Starting in Brno, both riders have finished every race. Rins had a terrible first half of the season—4 DNFs, including three of the first four rounds. Clean since then. Out-pointing Zarco. Sorry. Sticking with my rating. A certain amount of What Have You Done for Me Lately? gets into this, but not too much. Five second-half rounds seems like a reasonable comparison. It will be interesting to see how each finishes the season, with Zarco packing up to KTM, while Rins looks to stay put and partner with the up-and-coming Joan Mir starting next season. His masters at Suzuki need to get him some more grunt to go along with the sweet-handling GSX-RR.

Were I a gambling man, I’d take a substantial position on the wager that Rins will outpoint Zarco in 2019.

Your Weekend Forecast

Sunday’s forecast, from a week out, looks perfect—sunny, just barely warm, with very low ambient radioactivity readings in both the air and water. No hot weather advantage for the Hondas, no moaning from Cal Crutchlow about overheating his front. This is a stop-and-go circuit, a point-and-shoot place if you will. Hondas and Ducatis will enjoy an advantage here. I’m thinking Marquez, Dovizioso and Lorenzo on the podium, but am unclear as to the order of finish, which matters a lot.

Here’s one thing I don’t want to see. I don’t want to see Jorge Lorenzo impeding his teammate in any way at any time during the race. Time for some team orders from Ducati Corse. Any Ducati rider impeding in any way Mr. Dovizioso’s chase for the win and continued life in the championship shall be drawn and quartered in Parc Fermé immediately following the podium celebration. Two year Honda contract or not.

We’ll be back on Sunday morning with results and analysis. And then again on Tuesday with a look ahead at Phillip Island. Dang.

MotoGP Buriram Preview

September 30, 2018

© Bruce Allen         September 29 2018

Marquez leads Thai expedition 

The 2018 MotoGP season grinds on, a feeling of inevitability having settled over the grid. Marc Marquez will secure his fifth premier class world championship on the Pacific swing, followed by some locally-themed, over-the-top celebration prepared in advance. He has guys for that. Meanwhile, the rest of the grid is flailing away at a top-something finish; in the higher tranches, that would be top three. In the lower tranches, perhaps top ten. What can one say? It’s The Marquez Era. 

Screenshot (159)

Thailand in October is like hanging out in an autoclave. To the locals, it’s pleasantly warm and sunny. To the visitors, especially those with high BMIs and others covered head to toe in leathers and helmets, it’s a sauna, a preview of the heat of the hinges of hell. For the riders, it adds another stressor, another tire consideration, another stamina test to an already highly demanding occupation. It gives an additional advantage to the Hondas, which thrive on hot, greasy tracks. It is likely to add another brick in the wall of Yamaha’s continuing mortification. Those looking to stand on the podium in the maiden MotoGP Grand Prix of Thailand had better eat their Wheaties. It will be a trial. 

Here and There

There is precious little news in the MotoGP world these days, and the few stories floating around are pretty thin. Marquez continues his pounding, piston-like performance; other than Argentina and Mugello, he’s been on the podium every round, with six wins in 13 outings. It’s a two man race in Moto2, with Pecco Bagnaia holding the upper hand on Miguel Oliveira’s KTM. Both are graduating to the majors next season. And the chase in Moto3 seems to get scrambled every time out, with at least seven different race winners this year and most of the top five having multiple DNFs. Great fun, but unlikely to make it to the pages of Sports Illustrated anytime soon.

Jorge Lorenzo wants to blame Marquez for his crash in Aragon blah blah blah. Romano Fenati may end up in court over his not okay stunt in Misano, grabbing Stefano Manzi’s front brake at speed. (I still prefer the YouTube/GoPro video of the guy in Canada lane-splitting at 186 mph. The more astute among you may be able to identify the brand of the bike in the video. Apparently, the Mounties were able to identify the rider and arrest him some time later.) Bradley Smith is, as always, targeting a top eight finish in Thailand. Thin. Brad Binder, on the other hand, is becoming the Great Non-Latin Hope in Moto2. And Suzuki, by virtue of Andrea Iannone’s podium at Aragon, loses its concessions—engine allocation the most important—for 2019. Good on Suzuki.

Maverick Vinales continues circling the bowl, calling Aragon his worst race of the season. Ho hum. Oh, and before I forget, in addition to dislocating his big toe, Jorge also enjoyed a compound fracture of his second toe, making his getting stretchered off in Aragon somewhat less, um, Spartan. Dani Pedrosa, who not that long ago entertained championship aspirations, tied his best performance of the year in Aragon, finishing fifth. Thin. A number of readers have noticed, as have I, how Tech 3 pilot Johann Zarco has apparently checked out of 2018, keeping his powder dry in anticipation of switching to KTM after Valencia. It is fair to assume that Yamaha is not showering the soon-to-be-former satellite team with new pieces and parts these days, either.

Sometime while I was gone Valentino got to test the 2019 Yamaha M1.  The one expected to solve the grip and acceleration issues for the factory team next year. Reportedly, Doc was not impressed. This is bad news. Not as bad as the report on motogp.com that he is “arguably” riding the best of his entire career this season. The article, which includes a wealth of Vale’s “taller than Mickey Rooney” accomplishments in 2018 (“In addition, the [winless] rider from Tavullia has been the highest finishing Yamaha rider in eight of the 13 races so far this season…), is what we old-timers call “puffery.” Some poor entry-level copywriter contracted with Dorna was assigned to give them, promptly, 300 English words on what a great season Vale is having this year. Thin. Gotta keep selling those 46 hats and yellow fright wigs.

Balls.

A Word About Brolly Girls

I routinely catch a lot of flack when I go out of my way to comment on the lovely women who grace the racetrack. I’m objectifying women, etc. The recent spectacle in Washington, D.C. moves me to explain how I respect women and, simultaneously, kind of ogle some of them on TV.

I married someone’s daughter. My wife and I had three of our own. They, in turn, have produced three more. By being the only guy in a rather tight-knit family of women and girls, I became, in my dotage, a feminist. I read that men worry about women laughing at them and women worry about men killing them. I support Dr. Ford and all women who have had memorably bad experiences at the hands of men.

On the other hand, the brolly girls are not being held captive, forced to strut their stuff at gunpoint. They are paid, probably pretty well, for having caught a winning number in the lottery of life, as seen from the distaff side of the coin. These are little part-time gigs, and the models who work them probably work a dozen others in a year. For them, they bat their eyelashes, get their pictures taken a million times, twirl their umbrellas, take the money and run. I’d do the same thing. I will excuse my own pathetic attitude on the subject only by insisting that I appreciate their efforts to dress up the place, and I’m glad they’re part of the show.

Your Weekend Forecast 

This being winter in Thailand, daytime highs will only reach into the low 90’s for the weekend, with a chance of Biblical rain anytime in the p.m. This is going to be a dirty track for all three classes of bikes; free practices could be a flying circus. One suspects that Marc Marquez could abandon sixth gear for the remainder of the season and still clinch way early. I say that as we’re watching the lights come on and then go off, holding our collective breaths, we should all silently chant “Marquez slide-off; rider uninjured” during the hole shot.

For those of you fortunate enough to be traveling to Thailand for the first time, get yourself a treat while you’re there. Find a food seller on the street and ask for a big ol’ plate of my all-time Thai noodle favorite: Sum dum phuc. The translation is a side-splitter.

No real way to predict finishing orders on a new track without resorting to past performance. Hondas dominated the test here back in February. Perhaps we’’ll get a flag-to-flag. Otherwise, Marquez and Dovizioso and someone else will be on the podium on Sunday afternoon. As usual. Despite the heat. And despite the fact that the 2018 MotoGP season has, for now, run aground.

Back again on Sunday.

marquez-vs-dovizioso_gp_spielberg

Marquez Might Not See 298

September 24, 2018

© Bruce Allen    September 24 2018

MotoGP Spreadshet after 14 rounds

The latest results from Aragon haven’t made much difference in our chase of the predicted 297 points or less for Marc Marquez this season in MotoGP. His projected point total has declined since Austria only due to the once-every-four-decades cancellation of the Silverstone round 12. All I want to say in defense of my dubious prediction is that he is trending toward 316 points. Liars figure and figures lie. One might argue that a single careless post-clinch crash could reduce his point total by his average per race, which is 17.6 which rounds to 18.

316 – 18 = 298.

If there’s anything at all interesting about these numbers–and I’m beginning to wonder myself–it is that Marquez led Dovizioso by 72 points on August 12 and will lead him by 72 points on October 6, the day before Buriram. Each has had a first and a second the last two rounds, while Lorenzo has crashed from pole both times. And whereas Lorenzo trailed Marquez by 71 points on August 12, he will trail him by 116 points on October 6. The Spartan, the tragic hero, victim of his own hubris, might have kept himself in the Top Three Riders conversation. Instead, he is now flirting with becoming one of those sideshow guys like the late-stage Randy de Puniet, who could qualify the hell out of a bike only to finish 14th every time out.