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MotoGP Motegi Preview

October 23, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  Enjoy this article with some great photos on Motorcycle.com.

For Marquez, securing the title in Japan would be poetic 

In all likelihood, Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquez thought he would cement the 2013 premier class title in Australia.  The well-publicized fiasco surrounding the tires and the mandatory mid-race pit stop put that vision on hold for a week.  How fitting would it be for the boy wonder to recover from the embarrassing Australian flap by winning his first 1000cc championship in front of the factory brass on their home turf? 

Marquez in Sepang 2013For the young Catalan, last week must have been like waking up on Christmas morning, preparing to sneak downstairs, only to be told by his parents that Christmas had regrettably been pushed back a week.  The Grinch, in this case, was a composite of Bridgestone, who thought it unnecessary (!) to test their tires on the new Phillip Island racing surface, and Race Direction, which must have had several penalties to select from, and chose the most draconian option available.  Marquez’ Repsol team was also in the mix, as it appears they were trying to take advantage of the technicality that their garage actually sat in front of the start/finish line.

No matter.  What’s a week in the life of the 20 year-old Marquez, who sits on the cusp of what could be a decade of premier class domination?  Without wishing to venture near any conspiracy theories, there must be a contingent of Dorna and Honda executives who would prefer to see him win it all at Motegi.  They will probably fish their wish. 

Recent History at Motegi

In 2010, Pedrosa trashed his Repsol Honda in practice when the throttle stuck open, fracturing his collarbone and basically handing the 2010 title to Yamaha’s ascendant Jorge Lorenzo.  Casey Stoner wrestled his Ducati to the win, followed by Andrea Dovizioso on the #2 Repsol Honda and Yamaha Bruise Brothers Rossi and Lorenzo.   The race had originally been scheduled for the spring, but was moved back six months by the volcanic eruption in Iceland that disrupted air travel in Europe for a few weeks.

In 2011, Rossi crashed out early on his Ducati, leaving the way open for Pedrosa to cruise to an easy home win.  He was followed to the flag by Lorenzo and Stoner, completing the podium.  In the best run of the day, Marco Simoncelli piloted his Gresini Honda to fourth place, sneaking past Dovizioso and his factory Honda by 14/100ths of a second at the flag.  (Simoncelli would finish second at Phillip Island two weeks later, only to be lost to us forever the following week in Malaysia.)  Honda riders occupied four of the top five slots at the finish.

Last year, Pedrosa again whipped Lorenzo, with satellite Honda pilot Alvaro Bautista coming in third.  Honda’s 2011 Motegi domination continued, with four of the top six finishers riding for the home team.  This year, the factory Yamahas will bring their version of the seamless shift transmission to The Land of the Rising Sun.  But the Repsol Honda team will bring its shiny new counterweight—Marc Marquez.  

End Games

Marquez, as is true pretty much everywhere, generally does well at Motegi.  He won his last 125 race there in 2010, finished two seconds Big Three - Australiabehind Joe Iannone in the Moto2 class in 2011, and won again last year.  The 2013 Japanese Grand Prix figures to be a Repsol Honda clambake; Marquez need only finish third* to eliminate Pedrosa, and can clinch the 2013 title with a win.  Pedrosa could win the race and still find himself eliminated at the end of the day, giving meaning to the expression winning the battle while losing the war.

*Marquez would have 314 points, which Pedrosa could conceivably reach, however Marquez holds the tiebreaker based upon more wins.

Let’s get real here.  Barring calamities befalling both Marquez and Lorenzo, Dani Pedrosa is not going to win the 2013 title.  This leaves defending double world champion Jorge Lorenzo as the last obstacle remaining for Marquez.  Assuming Lorenzo could find a way to win this week and again in Valenciana—a super-sized assumption—what would the rookie need to do to hold on to his lead?

Would need to accumulate 33 points in the next two rounds, as Lorenzo would hold the tiebreaker.  Oddly, there are not many ways to accumulate 33 points in two MotoGP rounds, assuming no wins.  He would need a second and a fourth or better, which could be a little tricky.  But not as tricky as Lorenzo winning this weekend.  The oddsmakers have installed Lorenzo at 2:1, which to me seems WAY low.  If I were managing a gambling book, I would put him at closer to 10:1, given Pedrosa’s recent history at Motegi, Marquez’ season to date, and the layout of the track, which is as unfriendly to the 2013 Yamaha M-1 as any circuit on the tour.

Enough Already.  What About the Other Riders? 

The only factor that will have a material effect upon the standings among the top eight riders concerns the condition of LCR Honda pilot Stefan Bradl’s broken ankle.  He tried it at Phillip Island and was no go, no question.  He will try it again this weekend.  Not knowing the extent of the damage, it is safe to say only that he will be in a lot of pain if he ends up racing at all, and is unlikely to find himself in the top six.  Sure, you’re thinking, Colin Edwards podiumed a week after breaking his collarbone in 2011, but ankles are far more critical to riding these machines than are collarbones.

Past, Present and Future Champions full finalGlancing quickly at the standings, Rossi will end the year fourth, Cal Crutchlow fifth and Bautista sixth.  Dovizioso and Nicky Hayden, the factory Ducati contingent, could sneak up into seventh and eighth places, respectively, at Bradl’s expense.  CRT top dog Aleix Espargaro is likely to do better this weekend than Tech 3 Yamaha’s #2 Bradley Smith, and could challenge for a top ten finish for the year.  Espargaro is a baller, and will be even tougher next year on the Forward Racing production Yamaha, especially with little brother Pol on the grid snapping at his heels.

You’re Probably Wondering About the Weekend Weather

Determined to avoid any tasteless references to radioactivity or riders glowing in the dark, the weather at Motegi could present a challenge.  The forecast, courtesy of Weather.com, calls for rain and cool temps on Friday and Saturday, perfect conditions for early lap high sides during practice.  Sunday is expected to be sunny, with highs in the 60’s after dipping down into the 40’s on Saturday night.  Expect plenty of complaining, especially from the Ducati guys, about the difficulty of finding settings in wet practice sessions that will work in a dry race.  All of which we’ve heard before.  The three riders who end up on the podium will have had to deal with the same conditions, but will find ways to be successful.  Poor carpenters blame their tools.

As the 2013 season approaches its finale, I’m in the mood for a little predicting, which drives the editors here mad.  Too bad.  I like Marquez, Pedrosa and Lorenzo, in that order.  If I’m right—stranger things have happened—Marc Marquez will wrap up his first premier class title on Sunday, and everyone can relax on the way to the anticlimactic season ender in—go figure—Spain.

We’ll have Motegi results here on Sunday morning.  Enjoy the race.

Posted in MotoGP, MotoGP Motegi, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News | 2 Comments »

MotoGP Phillip Island 2013 Results

October 20, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  An edited version of this story, complete with hi-rez photos, can be found on Motorcycle.com.

Marquez DQ leaves Lorenzo still breathing 

Round 16 of the MotoGP 2013 world championship was all about the track.  The new racing surface, installed at the cost of millions, provided outstanding grip for the riders, but was chewing up tires at a stunning rate during the practice sessions leading up to the race.  Race Direction was putting out one-time rule changes as fast as they could print them.  The last of these ensnared Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquez, resulted in his disqualification, and left the title up for grabs for at least another week. 

Usually, the Australian Grand Prix is a 27 lap affair won by Casey Stoner.  With Stoner having retired after last season and the racing surface replaced in the interim, it looked like business as usual following last week’s tilt in Malaysia.  But once the practice sessions started at Phillip Island on Friday, Bridgestone, the official tire supplier of the premier class, realized it had a problem on its hands.  The riders were putting up great lap times, but the tires were disintegrating at an alarming rate.

After a series of meetings with Dorna officials, it was announced on Saturday morning that the race was being shortened to 26 laps, and that riders would have to make a mandatory pit stop to change bikes by the end of Lap 14.  Such an announcement had never been made in the history of the series.  But the trouble didn’t stop there.  After qualifications, and more discussions, it was announced that the race was being limited to 19 laps, and that riders would have to make a mandatory bike change by the end of Lap 9 and no later than the end of Lap 10.

Marc Marquez’ team apparently missed the email.  It was his team’s failure, not the rider’s, which led to mayhem, a black flag for the series leader, and at least another week before the 2013 title can be settled.

The teams were undoubtedly up late into the night devising their strategies for the race.  They would all be using two bikes, each with a soft front tire, half a tank of gas, and no worries about tire conservation.  After the pit stop, they would be re-entering the race on cold tires.  There were concerns about entering the track from pit lane with on-track bikes running around 200 kph at the entry point.

Enough about the Rules—What about the Race?

Big Three - AustraliaWith a front row of defending world champion and Yamaha strongman Jorge Lorenzo, series leader Marquez, and fading star Valentino Rossi, the race got off to a clean start.  Lorenzo stormed into the lead, followed closely by the Repsol duo of Marquez and Pedrosa, and a wild first lap featured contact between all three.  By the end of Lap 1, it was Lorenzo, Marquez and Pedrosa up front, with a second group comprised of Rossi, Tech 3 Yamaha rookie Bradley Smith, FUN&GO hazard Alvaro Bautista and Smith’s teammate Cal Crutchlow.  By Lap 5, Smith had dropped back, and Marquez appeared to be lining up Lorenzo for a potentially championship-clinching pass.

At this point, as the riders approached the start/finish line, the pitboards started putting up reminders about the number of laps remaining before the riders had to enter the pits and change bikes.  The riders were maintaining their respective positions, but by Lap 9 only 2/10ths of a second separated leader Lorenzo from Pedrosa in third place.  It soon became apparent that Team Yamaha was better prepared for what was to happen than was the Repsol Honda crew.

As Lap 9 ended, Pedrosa entered pit lane, changed bikes, and got caught speeding coming back onto the track, which would later force him to allow Marquez through and, at the end of the day, amount to nothing.  As Lap 10 was ending, the entire place expected to see Lorenzo and Marquez enter pit lane.  The veteran Lorenzo, with his experienced crew, veered left as expected, while Marquez unaccountably kept right on going.  The poor British race announcers, Gavin Emmett and Nick Harris, were suddenly on their feet shouting, prancing about, and speculating wildly as to the possible consequences of Marquez’ error.  A ride-through penalty?  More points on his license?  A back-of-the-grid start at Motegi?

As Marquez re-entered the track on what was now Lap 12, he veered into Lorenzo’s line, and Lorenzo gave him a good smack, knocking a piece of Marquez’ brake lever/cover flying, and allowing Pedrosa through.  The race, and the speculation, continued, with Marquez going through on Pedrosa on Lap 14.  Finally, on Lap 15, the dreaded black flag appeared, and #93 was done for the day.

In the end, Lorenzo won comfortably by 7 seconds over Pedrosa, while Rossi eventually vanquished both Bautista and Crutchlow for another tarnished podium.  Today’s top ten finishers looked like this:

Top Ten finishers 2013 Phillip Island.

The Big Picture

Not much has changed in the 2013 standings, despite the dramatic turn of events Down Under.  Lorenzo now trails Marquez by 18 points, and needs to thump the rookie pretty good at Motegi to have a puncher’s chance of repeating as world champion in Valenciana.  Dani Pedrosa’s fortunes hang by a thread, and are out of his control.  Trailing Marquez by 34 points and Lorenzo by 16, he needs a world of woe to befall both riders in Japan to have anything beyond a mathematical chance of winning his first premier class title in Spain next month.  In all likelihood his championship hopes will expire next week.

Although Jorge Lorenzo gets plenty of props, has a room full of trophies and a distinguished body of work to show for his MotoGP career, one of the things he doesn’t seem to get much credit for is his mental toughness.  At the start of today’s race, with Repsol Hondas banging into him right and left, he was giving as good as he got, conceding nothing.  When Marquez got in his way on Lap 12, he brushed him aside, as if he weren’t going well over 100 mph on two wheels.

In a race in which he had nothing to lose, Lorenzo put the hammer down, damned the torpedoes, and went for all the marbles.  When today looks hopeless and there’s no tomorrow, many of us will throw up our hands and surrender to the inevitable.

There’s no surrender in Jorge Lorenzo.

A Look Back at the 2013 Australian Grand Prix

The big loser today was, of course, the Phillip Island Circuit.  The track operators invested heavily in re-paving the entire course, and now have an un-rideable track on their hands.  In the big money world of MotoGP, no one wants fingers pointed at them, blaming them for conditions or circumstances that can have a material effect on the outcome of an entire season.  Such is the state of Phillip Island.

Perhaps the most picturesque circuit on the MotoGP calendar, attendance today was under 32,000—about what you get at an average Boston Red Sox game—and the operators are facing a massive “Now what?”  Re-pave the track again?  Sue the contractor (which is what we would do here in the U.S.)?

A weekend that started under brilliant sunshine produced a flawed race run under leaden skies and that ended, somewhat appropriately, in the rain.  Phillip Island, which should really be re-named Stoner Island, is, for now, the venue for Round 18 on the 2014 MotoGP calendar.  Unless the owners find a solution to avert another cluster that was today’s race, we may find ourselves back to an 18 round season next year.

phillip island

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Posted in MotoGP, MotoGP Phillip Island, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News | 1 Comment »

Phillip Island – Lorenzo’s Last Stand

October 16, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  The version of this story  on Motorcycle.com has some great photos.

Yamaha star needs win to keep his faint hopes alive 

This MotoGP season has developed an air of inevitability.  Not that Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquez is going to win the 2013 title; that’s pretty much in the bag.  It’s entirely possible he could win the next six or eight world championships.  The young Spaniard may do for MotoGP what Michael Schumacher did years ago for F-1—turn it into his personal playground, at the cost of much of its popularity. 

Despite Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta’s efforts to level the playing field as regards equipment (which could easily take years, given the resistance he faces from the Hondas and Yamahas of the world), the observation that MotoGP is 80% rider and 20% bike is mostly true.  Marquez won the 125 class when he was 17, and would have won two Moto2 titles had he not splashed out in Sepang in 2011.  If you were to put the entire premier class grid on identical bikes, there’s no question in my mind that Marquez would win 75% of the races, for as long as you wanted to run them.  Against Lorenzo, Pedrosa, Rossi and the rest.  No question.  He’s that good.

Compare his premier class rookie season to that of his role model.  In his first six races in 2000, Valentino Rossi, the impudent Italian fast mover, crashed twice, finished 12th, 11th and 3rd twice, earning a total of 41 points.  Marquez, in a larger grid, crashed once, finished on the podium five times, had a win, and pulled down 93 points.  Rossi earned 209 points in 2000 over 16 rounds (13 points/race); Marquez is on track to reach perhaps 360 points over 18 rounds (20 points/race).  Rossi soon became a MotoGP icon, and years after his last competitive season in 2010, he is still recognized around the world and is the fifth-highest earning driver in all motorsports.

Brolly Girl SepangStatistically speaking, Marquez is almost 50% more productive than Rossi was in his rookie year.  Not to mention he’s Spanish, a country that’s mad about MotoGP, in a league that runs almost a quarter of its races in Spain.  Talk about a rock star.  Repsol acknowledged as much last Sunday, installing a vastly upgraded brolly girl in place of his customary helper, who resembles Yoko Ono with a migraine.

As Woody Hayes, the legendarily run-oriented Ohio State football coach observed about the forward pass, “Three things can happen, and two of them are bad.”  Obviously, in MotoGP, injuries play a major role in the fortunes of the top riders.  Despite improvements in leathers, bikes, helmets and the tracks themselves, going 200 mph on a motorcycle is, as it were, a blueprint for disaster.  For a vivid example, check out Alex de Angelis in practice for the 2010 Moto2 race at Jerez.  (BTW, de Angelis walked away from it.)  Marquez could, yet this year, suffer a career-ending crash, exposing the folly of this speculation.  But if he is fortunate enough to avoid a series of bone-crushing high sides over the next decade, he looks ready to rule MotoGP until someone (Alex Rins?) grows enough whiskers to mount a serious challenge.  No one currently running in the premier class has the chops.

Weren’t You Going to Discuss Jorge Lorenzo?

For defending champion and Yamaha golden boy Jorge Lorenzo, the only thing that will allow him to repeat would be a significant crash by Marquez.  Soon.  Repsol Honda’s unlucky #2 Dani Pedrosa will, in all likelihood, be eliminated from contention this weekend, leaving Lorenzo as the last man standing in Marquez’ way.  And even if Lorenzo were to run the table—a dubious proposition, with Motegi on the horizon—he would need a complete, utter collapse by Marquez, which just doesn’t appear likely, to become a three-time champion in 2013.

Marquez showed me something this past Sunday in Sepang, once he had gone through on Lorenzo into second place.  With teammate Pedrosa a few seconds in front of him, and plenty of time on his hands, Marquez elected to play it safe, gather his 20 points, and move onto the next venue.  If he were truly a mad dog, a pathological risk taker, he would have put the hammer down and gone after Pedrosa.  I’ve said before that Dani Pedrosa, after countless surgeries, is old for his age.  Marquez, by contrast, is mature for his age while still young enough to heal quickly from the “bumps and bruises” (paging Cal Crutchlow) inherent in the sport.

Anyway, Jorge Lorenzo had his game face on in Sepang, and still managed to lose to both Repsol Hondas.  Phillip Island is a far friendlier track for the Yamaha M-1, and Lorenzo has a decent chance to win on Sunday, further prolonging his 2013 agony.  If I were Jorge, I’d have my post-race press conference blurb already prepared, ignore the questions, and talk about how I only enjoy winning titles in even-numbered years.  Because, even if he’s still alive after Australia, he’s pretty much toast in Japan.  With two wins in the last nine years at Motegi, Honda’s home track, putting your money on Yamaha, even with Jorge Lorenzo in charge, is a fool’s wager.

Quick Hitters

Nicky Hayden, according to Speedweek.com, will be riding the production Honda RCV1000R for the Aspar team in 2014.  With current Aspar CRT champion Aleix Espargaro on his way to join Colin Edwards at NGM Forward Racing on a rented Yamaha M-1 next season (displacing Claudio Corti), Aspar suggested that his choices for the #2 seat on his 2014 team were limited to Hiro Aoyoma, Eugene Laverty and Yonny Hernandez.  This presumes that his current #2, Randy de Puniet, takes a year off testing for Suzuki before returning to the grid in 2015 on a factory Suzuki.

Hayden, unceremoniously dumped by Ducati in mid-season—that must sting—now has engine problems for what remains of the 2013 season.  The engine he blew at Sepang was his last new one, and the other four are pretty beat up.  According to MotoGP.com, Hayden may have to unwrap a sixth engine this week, becoming the second rider ever to start from pit lane as punishment for failing to manage his engine allotment.  The first, you will recall, was Valentino Rossi in 2011.  Who remembers where that took place?

If Marc Marquez manages to collect another penalty point this week or next, he will be forced to start the following race from the back of the grid.  He’s probably not too worried about the prospect.  During his first Moto2 season in 2011, after an incident during practice at Phillip Island, Marquez was banished to the back of the grid, starting in 38th place.  He finished 3rd that day.

What About the Weather Down Under?

According to Weather.com, conditions at Phillip Island this weekend will be seasonal, which is to say cool and windy.  Temps will be in the high 60’s and low 70’s with a stiff breeze out of the north, making it feel colder than it actually is.  Morning practice sessions will be treacherous on cold tires.

Casey Stoner will be in the house, getting his props from Dorna in recognition of a distinguished, if whiney, career. The temptation to climb
 aboard Stefan Bradl’s idle RC213V must be overwhelming, but I doubt he will succumb.

Stoner testing

 

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Posted in MotoGP, MotoGP Phillip Island, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News | 2 Comments »

Pedrosa wins at Sepang; Marquez extends lead

October 13, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  An edited version of this story, complete with non-bootlegged images, will appear on Motorcycle.com tonight or tomorrow. Until then, please enjoy the raw copy.

Repsol Hondas finish one-two in the Malaysian heat 

pedrosa_marquez

For factory Yamaha double world champion Jorge Lorenzo and the Repsol Honda duo of Dani Pedrosa and Marc Marquez, Sunday’s Malaysian Grand Prix was going to be a statement race.  Lorenzo’s intent, clear from the outset, was to beat rookie Marquez at any cost.  Pedrosa, the victim of plain bad luck at Aragon, looked determined to prove that he was still a force at the top of the MotoGP food chain.  And Marc Marquez, on his way to the 2013 title, wanted the world to know that his brain is bigger than his balls. 

How, you’re wondering, do I know these things to be true?  Pure deduction, based upon things that were said during the week, and the actions of the riders during the race.  At the Thursday press conference, Jorge Lorenzo went OFF, delivering a scathing critique of Marquez’ relentless risk taking and Race Direction’s lame season-long response thereto.  To paraphrase Lorenzo’s tongue-in-cheek outburst, he claimed that Marquez approaches MotoGP as if it were NASCAR, bumping and grinding his competitors every time out, with but three “penalty points” to show for his behavior.  Actually, three penalty points and a World Championship.  Lorenzo, it seems, is put out over how Race Direction has rewarded bad behavior on Marquez’ part with a trophy and a bit of toothless punishment.  Thankfully, he didn’t play the Marco Simoncelli card as an example of what can happen to the fast and the reckless.

Dani Pedrosa gave us one of his trademarked “slingshot” starts today, moving from fifth position on the grid to sitting on Lorenzo’s pipes in the middle of Lap 1.  He and Marquez had been fast all weekend in practice, but Pedrosa looked determined not simply to podium today, but to win.  On Lap 5, having just received a mapping change from his pit crew, he bumped Lorenzo out of his way—just racing!—and took over first place for the duration.  Never looking back, he won by almost three seconds, for the first time since Le Mans.  Two years ago, when he had this kind of pace, Pedrosa would win by 12 seconds, and would have felt great afterwards.

Two years ago he had no Marc Marquez to deal with.

Marquez, for his part, looked mainly interested in staying out of trouble today.  He seemed surprised at Lorenzo’s Thursday outburst, and tried to make light of it, before figuring out that Jorge was seriously furious with him.  Settling into third position at the start, he joined Pedrosa in slipping past Lorenzo on Lap 5.  The Yamaha icon was simply not having it today.  He came right back at the rookie and gave him a good bump on Lap 6, briefly moving back into second place.  The two went at each other tooth and fang through Lap 7, when Marquez went through for good, pushing Lorenzo out onto the candystripes exiting a late corner, and essentially sealing the 2013 championship in the process.

Having put Lorenzo away, you expected Marquez to go after Pedrosa in the hunt for another gratuitous win.  Instead, he appeared to lay back, content to simply manage the gap between himself and Lorenzo.  In addition to being his teammate, Dani Pedrosa is absolutely no threat to his title aspirations.  The mountain of criticism piled upon Marquez after Aragon, most of it undeserved, clearly had an effect on the young Spaniard.  Thus, he was able to emerge from today’s race with no further damage to his reputation, and with a bigger lead in the championship race than he had at the start of the day.  All in all, a good day’s work.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Valentino Rossi on Saturday enjoyed his best QP since 2010, starting from the second spot on the grid.  On Sunday, this advantage lasted all of 10 seconds, as both Lorenzo and Pedrosa blew by him on the way to the first turn.  Rossi spent the entire day—all 20 laps—in fourth place, and appeared to be hanging around, waiting for one of the leaders to fall, or run wide, something, anything, in the hope of securing yet another hollow podium.  I get it that Rossi is a marketing machine who makes cash registers ring for Yamaha, but his diminishing presence on the team means Lorenzo is getting double-teamed every week.  And as the standings show, the result is going to be another world championship for Honda.

With the bulk of the field strung out in a ghastly premier class procession, the only real contest of the day involved Tech 3 Yamaha Brit Cal Crutchlow and GO&FUN pilot Alvaro Bautista, who spent the day jousting over fifth place.  Crutchlow, with the slower bike and zero motivation, eventually succumbed to Bautista, losing out by a couple of tenths.  While LCR Honda’s Stefan Bradl missed today’s race due to a broken ankle suffered in FP4 on Saturday, Bautista moved past Bradl into sixth place for the season.

With two of the four Ducatis on the grid retiring with mechanical problems—Iannone with exhaust issues, Hayden with a blown engine—Yonny Hernandez made a respectable showing on his Pramac Ducati, finishing 10th after starting 16th.  Hector Barbera, riding for the Avintia Blusens team, weathered a ride-through penalty for jumping the start and still managed 14th place for the day.  Fellow jumpers Colin Edwards and Michael Laverty fared slightly worse, with Edwards coming home in 15th place and Laverty crashing out on Lap 13.

The Big Picture, Heading to Australia

The season has developed what feels like a grinding inevitability, as Valenciana draws closer and Marquez’ lead in the standings grows larger.  The rookie demonstrated today that he is not, in fact, compelled to try to win every single round, that he appreciates where he sits in the standings and what he must to do stay on top.  He showed a little respect (or was it pity?) for his teammate by laying off and not trying to out-race him yet again today, when there was nothing to be gained from such showboating but a few more haters.

Stoner testing

With Phillip Island looming, the Magic Numbers are now clearly in focus.  Lorenzo trails Marquez by 43 points; Pedrosa trails by 54.  Unless Pedrosa wins in Australia, he will be eliminated next week.  If Marquez wins and Lorenzo finishes third or worse, the fat lady will be singing “Advance Australia Fair” next Sunday afternoon.  The moment it was announced that Bradl would miss Round 16, rumors started circulating that Casey Stoner would return to try for a seventh (!) consecutive win at his home track, a rumor both Honda and Stoner currently deny.  But the alignment of the MotoGP stars and planets is such that Stoner’s appearance on the LCR Honda next weekend wouldn’t surprise, or disappoint, too many fans.  With three rounds left, there is precious little else to cheer for.

TOP TEN YTD AFTER SEPANG.

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Posted in MotoGP, MotoGP Sepang, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News | 3 Comments »

Marquez tags Pedrosa, wins again at Aragon

September 29, 2013

by Bruce Allen. This story, along with hi-rez images, can be found on Motorcycle.com.

Marquez at AragonYears from now, when racing historians ask, “Was there an identifiable moment when Marc Marquez made it clear he would become one of the all-time greats in MotoGP?” many people will answer, “Lap six of the 2013 Aragon GP.”  Determined to go through on Repsol Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa at Turn 12, he grazed the back of Pedrosa’s rear tire, stood his bike up, and watched as Pedrosa lost control in a violent highside.  With Pedrosa done for the day, Marquez went on to track down Yamaha #1 Jorge Lorenzo for the sixth win of his rookie year. 

With four rounds left in the 2013 season, it appears Marquez can coast to the first of what promises to be a healthy number of premier class world titles.  Lorenzo, his nearest rival, now trails him by 39 points while Pedrosa, battered, bruised and broken, stands another 20 points in arrears, the victim of Marquez’s lack of experience and utter fearlessness.  No one will suggest that Marquez’s move in Turn 12 was malicious; he came within a whisker of crashing out himself, saved once again only by his cat-like balance and reflexes.  If he can be accused of anything, it is a certain ruthlessness hidden behind his apparent baby-faced innocence.  But make no mistake about it:  Marquez is ambitious and driven, and you had better stand out of his way.

The other riders on the grid have already figured this out.  Jorge Lorenzo, who led from the first turn, found himself on Lap 14 with Marquezcropped-jorge-lorenzo-20131.jpg on his pipes.  Rather than be attacked by the rookie, Lorenzo, as competitive as they come, let Marquez through, admitting so in the post-race press conference.  On a windy day, with braking problems, Lorenzo decided he would be better off slipstreaming the Honda rider, attacking rather than getting attacked.  His strategy failed, as Marquez, once through, never looked back on his way to winning by 1.5 seconds.

Last week I talked about the eyes of Pedrosa and Lorenzo, how Pedrosa appeared resigned while Lorenzo seemed determined.  The images from today’s race will show Pedrosa wearing what’s known as the thousand mile stare, and a look of resignation—not to be confused with acceptance—now written on Jorge Lorenzo’s face.  Nothing Lorenzo could have done today or this season (other than paying heed to cold tires at Assen and the Sachsenring) was going to prevent Marquez from winning his first premier class title.  It has been a matter of too much bike, too much ability, and too much good fortune to end any other way.

One wonders about the atmosphere going forward in the Repsol Honda garage.  On the Marquez side, at age 20, his career path is now leaving contrails on the way to fame, fortune and glory.  On the Pedrosa side, there must exist a disturbing sense that part of the reason for his now certain ruin lays at Marquez’s doorstep.

On his 28th birthday, Pedrosa must understand that his future in MotoGP is likely to consist of a few competitive seasons, followed, perhaps, by a few non-competitive seasons, after which he will need to find something to do with the rest of his life.  Like Roman candles, the best MotoGP careers burn spectacularly for a short time, inspiring plenty of oohs and aahs, before leaving behind, in most cases, a charred, hollow, quickly-forgotten casing.  Winning a championship changes the end of the story and establishes a legacy; failing to do so reduces one to a Wikipedia entry.  In the opinion of many, Dani Pedrosa deserves better.

Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380

Elsewhere on the Grid

Yamaha #2 and Alien Emeritus Valentino Rossi took advantage of Pedrosa’s misfortune by out-riding GO&FUN Honda pilot Alvaro Bautista on the way to his fifth podium of the year.  Rossi, Bautista, LCR Honda German Stefan Bradl and Monster Tech 3 defector Cal Crutchlow formed the second group of the day and jockeyed for third place from Lap 6 on, with Rossi taking advantage of his experience to beat the two Hondas to the flag.  The same could be said for most of the grid from Row 5 up; for the non-Aliens, the 2013 Aragon GP pretty much ended up where it started.

Crutchlow’s teammate and fellow Brit Bradley Smith finished in his customary seventh place, while Ducati #1 Andrea Dovizioso topped teammate Nicky Hayden in their weekly tussle for eighth.  For the season, Hayden has finished seventh, eighth or ninth a total of 10 times and Dovizioso nine.  Dovizioso leads Hayden in the standings 112 to 102.  After 14 rounds last year, Dovi had accumulated 179 points.  The difference—67 points, or 5 points per round—is The Ducati Effect.  Crutchlow, leaving Tech 3 Yamaha at the end of the year for the Italian manufacturer, currently holds 156 points.  Expect him to be under 100 at this time next year, but living in a bigger house.

The Big Picture

The only conceivable factor clouding the picture as the 2013 season winds down is the fact that Marc Marquez suffered the single most injurious crash of his career at the next stop on the tour in Malaysia.  That was in 2011, and it was overlooked in the chaos and heartbreak surrounding the death that same weekend of Marco Simoncelli.  During one of the practice sessions following a rainstorm, with the track drying, Marquez failed to notice a puddle of water in one of the turns, hydroplaned at speed, going airborne and landing on his head.  His vision was impaired through the beginning of the 2012 season.  He will undoubtedly be more cautious this year, as he can clinch the title by finishing third for the next four races.

Jorge Lorenzo, of course, will not quit in his pursuit of his budding nemesis.  He will be at a disadvantage at Sepang due to the heat and Motegi due to the layout.  He will have a puncher’s chance at Phillip Island and Valenciana.  But unless Marquez crashes out at least once, Lorenzo will have to be satisfied as the runner-up in 2013.  And, as we’ve discussed above at length, probably for some years to come.

Otherwise, there is very little at stake in the remaining rounds.  Crutchlow is leaving his team at the end of the year and has nothing to prove.  Bradl would prefer to finish ahead of Bautista in the satellite Honda scrum, but each is under contract for 2014.  Nicky Hayden may be the most highly motivated rider on the grid for the duration, as he would dearly love to stick one in the eye of Ducati management and outpoint teammate Dovizioso before his ejection from the team.  If, as rumored, he hooks up with the Aspar Power Electronics team on what would be pretty much a 2014 factory Aprilia, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him beating the Ducati riders next season.  That would be something to cheer about.

Top Ten after Aragon

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MotoGP Aragon Preview

September 24, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  

See the edited version of this article, complete with hi-rez images, on Motorcycle.com.

Lorenzo needs to keep his streak going 

The 2013 MotoGP championship chase has now come down to the annual Pacific Swing, sandwiched between Aragon and Valenciana.  A mere five rounds left for all the marbles in the premier motorcycle series on Earth.  Seven weeks for Honda little big man Dani Pedrosa or defending Yamaha champion Jorge Lorenzo to erase the 34 point gap Repsol rookie Marc Marquez has built over the past six months.  Good luck with that.

Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380Many followers of the sport, myself included, feel it is actually a two man race, that Dani Pedrosa has been spiritually broken over the last six rounds.  He had ruled at the top of the heap after Round 7 at Assen, with two golds and three silvers, and led challengers Lorenzo and Marquez by nine and 23 points, respectively.   Having re-broken his left collarbone in practice at the Sachsenring, he has given up 57 points to his rookie teammate since mid-July.  His body language these days gives the impression of a beaten man.  His are the brooding eyes of a contender who has, once again, fallen short of the prize.

Two time and defending world champion Jorge Lorenzo, on the other hand, Jorge-Lorenzo-Smile-HDseems to have found a second wind since Brno.  By winning at Silverstone and again at Misano, he has clawed back 10 of the 44 point deficit he faced in late August.  Although it will take a minor miracle, and some rookie mistakes by the relaxed Marquez, to put Lorenzo within reach—say 10 points—of the title by the time Valenciana rolls around, he will concede nothing.  He is probably not going to make it.  From Lorenzo’s vantage point, he may run out of time, but he will not have lost.  His are the eyes of a champion.

Here’s the thing.  Marquez has proven, among a host of other things this season, that he is a rapid learner.  As good as he has become since April, he is only going to get better, and faster, over the rest of this decade.  What he has accomplished this season—six poles, five wins, and 12 podiums in 13 rounds—he has done almost purely on instinct.  Add experience and maturity to the mix, and he appears likely to emerge in a class by himself.

Marquez the ManHRC management is going to keep a death grip on Marquez’ services and provide him with the finest equipment on the griduntil he quits the game.  2013 could be the last realistic opportunity for Jorge Lorenzo to secure his third world championship.  No wonder he’s pressing; if we can see the writing on the wall, surely he can, too.  One mistake, though, and it’s over.

A Brief History of MotoGP at MotorLand 

A last-minute substitution for the failed Balatonring circuit in Hungary in 2010, MotorLand Aragon is an anomaly:  a Yamaha-friendly circuit at which Jorge Lorenzo has never won.  Casey Stoner won easily that year on the Ducati, joined on the podium by Pedrosa and Nicky Hayden, who punked Lorenzo on the penultimate turn of the race for his annual post-2006 rostrum.  The race in 2010 was memorable for having had two Ducatis on the podium, the last time that is likely to happen in my lifetime.

Stoner won again in 2011 for Repsol Honda, followed at some distance by teammate Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Marco Simoncelli.  Valentino Rossi, befouled by the new six engine rule that year, became the first rider ever forced to start from pit lane for going over budget on his engines on his way to a 10th place finish.

Last year, Dani Pedrosa, in the midst of his white-hot finish to the 2012 season, blistered the field and fended off all four Yamahas, with Lorenzo and Tech 3 Yamaha pilot Andrea Dovizioso joining him on the podium.  Stoner sat out with the injury suffered at Indianapolis three rounds earlier, and his sub, journeyman Johnny Rea, acquitted himself nicely with a gratifying 7th place finish onboard the Repsol Honda.

Let’s review.  Since 2010, Dani Pedrosa has a gold and two silvers.  Jorge Lorenzo has, in order, a 4th, a 3rd and a 2nd, an encouraging trend if ever there was.  Young Marquez crashed out of the 125 race in 2010, won handily in Moto2 in 2011, and finished second to Pol Espargaro last season in a Moto2 classic, with the top four riders crossing the line within 2 seconds of the winner.  MM ♥ Aragon.

I’m not going out on a limb predicting that these three will end up on the podium on Sunday afternoon.  After all, they’ve hogged the top three spots seven times this year, including the last four rounds.  Alien Emeritus Rossi, meanwhile, has four consecutive 4th place finishes going for him.  His frustration has reached such a high level that he announced this week he’s forming a Moto3 team for 2014, perhaps giving some thought to what life will be like after his racing days are over.  His winning days are largely behind him already.  MotoGP is a young man’s game; there are no Peyton Mannings in MotoGP.

Musical Chairs in the Lower Tranches

Expect the announcement this weekend that Nicky Hayden will be joining the Aspar Power Electronics team for 2014 with enhanced involvement/investment from the Aprilia factory.  Don’t expect his teammate to be Randy de Puniet, who appears likely to take 2014 off to test for Suzuki prior to returning to the grid in 2015.

Aleix Espargaro, meanwhile, is reportedly torn between remaining with Aspar or taking his act to the NGM Forward Racing team to join the ancient Colin Edwards on Yamaha-powered FTRs.  With Scott Redding having signed with the GO&FUN Gresini team and slated for one of the new Honda “production” bikes, there appears to be a seat available for someone at either Aspar or Forward Racing.  I’d like to hear some ideas as to who might end up where.  Laverty’s brother Eugene has expressed interest in the Aprilia MotoGP program, apparently anxious to whip up on brother Michael.  Not to mention quadrupling his salary.

At the bottom of the food chain, Michael Laverty is getting a bit of a promotion on the PBM team, moving from the PBM ART to the ART ART in a dazzling display of acronyms.  Yonny Hernandez, as we mentioned last time, is taking over for Ben Spies on the Pramac Ducati, with Spies insisting his contract is in no jeopardy for 2014; we’ll see about that.  Australian Damien Cudlin, last seen subbing in MotoGP in 2011, will apparently replace Hernandez on the PBM team for the last five rounds of 2013.

Karel Abraham has cashed out for the year, with his Cardion AB seat being taken, at least this week, by Former Ferracci MV Rider Luca Scassa.  Scassa, onboard a Kawasaki, is sixth this season in World Supersport, not exactly a threat to crash the top ten at Aragon.

Honda Weather for Round 14

Temps are expected to rise into the 80’s and 90’s this weekend at Motorland, such conditions favoring Pedrosa and Marquez.  But Lorenzo is overdue for a win here, having tasted victory at the three other Spanish venues.  Has Pedrosa thrown in the towel?  Can Lorenzo keep his streak, and his championship dreams, alive?  Will Marquez provide another last lap thriller?  Tune into Fox Sports 1 at 8 am EDT for live coverage of the Gran Premio Iveco de Aragon.   We’ll have results right here on Sunday morning.

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MotoGP Misano Results

September 15, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  An edited version of this article will appear later today on Motorcycle.com, complete with hi-rez images.  Until then, enjoy the raw copy.

Lorenzo wins easily; Marquez extends series lead 

On a cloudy day in the hills above the Adriatic Riviera, factory Yamaha #1 Jorge Lorenzo demonstrated why he is a double premier class world champion.  In the second of seven consecutive “must win” races, he never trailed the Repsol Honda duo of Marc Marquez and Dani Pedrosa in a decisive Yamaha vs. Honda beatdown.  Now, all he must do to maintain a faint chance for his third world championship is run the table for the rest of the season. 

Lorenzo at work

Lorenzo has had a number of days like this in his six premier class seasons.  Starting from the middle of the first row, he was able to jump out to the early lead, put the hammer down, establish a working margin over the next three bikes, and lay down 28 throbbing, piston-like laps that left his chasers gasping for air.  He clearly has the sense of urgency which should accompany a 34 point deficit to rookie series leader Marc Marquez with five races left in the season.  In the post-race press conference, he acknowledged that today’s win has little to do with the 2013 title, other than to boost his confidence and provide a few warm fuzzies.  With six wins in his last six races in Italy, he should get a “JL ♥ Italia” bumper sticker for his M1.

The trio of Pedrosa, Marquez and Alien Emeritus Valentino Rossi, respectively, trailed Lorenzo at the start, with Rossi looking perky and capable of impacting the podium one way or another.  On Lap 5, Marquez had to stand his bike up to avoid running up Pedrosa’s back wheel, allowing Rossi through into 3rd place and giving the 50,000 Italian fans something to cheer insanely about for roughly 12 minutes.  Marquez went back through Rossi on Lap 12, relegating the local hero to fourth place for the fourth consecutive race, leading to the inescapable conclusion that Rossi is now the fourth fastest rider on the grid.  The insane cheering continued unabated, regardless.

What transpired next was an instructive intra-team battle between yesterday and tomorrow, as Pedrosa and Marquez threw down, bared their teeth, and went at it.  Pedrosa, desperately trying to hold on to second place and some relevance in the 2013 title hunt, kept the rookie at bay until Lap 18, when Marquez aggressively passed him.  Pedrosa, who had been staring at the rookie’s back tire all weekend, was not going down without a fight.  He finally managed to go back through on his teammate on Lap 22, only to cede the lead some three turns later, and that was that. Gathering another 20 points today, Marquez extended his series lead, now over Lorenzo and Pedrosa, to 34 points, with Lorenzo holding the tiebreaker.

cropped-lorenzo-and-marquez.jpgFor those of you anxious to criticize me for conceding the 2013 title to Marc Marquez this early in the season, I will argue that a thoroughly broken Dani Pedrosa is out of the equation, and that what fight is left will be between Marquez and Lorenzo.  Over Lorenzo’s five premier class seasons at the remaining 5 venues, he has two wins—Motegi in 2009 and Valencia in 2010—to show for his efforts.  (Marquez, in his final 125 season and two Moto2 years, has 6 wins out of 13 possibles.)

As today’s tilt showed, even when Lorenzo wins, he can’t count on grabbing back a lot of points on the unflappable, smooth-faced rookie.  Someone kindly calculate the odds of Lorenzo beating Marquez five rounds in a row at circuits where his victories over the past five seasons have come in at around 10% (with three DNFs) vs. 42% for Marquez.  Never mind.  Relying on an advanced degree in economics, I’ve computed that number myself, which comes in at “just north of zero.”

To further kick this dead horse, even if Lorenzo does win the next five rounds— a dubious proposition, although the new Yamaha seamless gearbox will help him—Marquez now has a magic number of, at most, 92.  The heat of Sepang and the slow, stop-and-go pace of Motegi will work in his favor.  With Stoner out of the picture, Phillip Island is now up for grabs, and should favor Lorenzo.  I’m a big fan of Jorge Lorenzo, who handles himself professionally at all times, but I fear he is now in the “moral victory” business, as the war appears to have been lost.  Just sayin’.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Yamaha Tech 3 Brit Cal Crutchlow and LCR Honda’s Stefan Bradl squared off for a day-long battle over 5th place, with Crutchlow getting worked by the young German late on the final lap to cap a nauseating weekend.  He managed exactly one fast lap in practice to start in the middle of the second row after having had to go through Q1.  Bradl, whose season seems to have peaked at Laguna Seca, managed a small victory today but appears to be underachieving on what should be a very fast ride.

Aspar Power Electronics star Aleix Espargaro took full advantage of the cramped layout of the Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli to qualify in 6th place and appeared to be en route to a great day until the lights went out at the start, as he got away way early and had to take a ride-through penalty, ultimately finishing 13th, four seconds behind top CRT finisher Colin Edwards on his NGM Forward Racing nag.  Espargaro, who expects to advance up the MotoGP food chain next season, is apparently having difficulties negotiating a move within the caste system that comprises the premier class, judging from comments he made to Crash.net earlier in the week.

I’m trying to think of something positive to say about GO&FUN Gresini Honda pilot Alvaro Bautista, who started eighth and finished seventh, courtesy of Espargaro’s flinch, but just can’t find the words.  Mark my words—this guy, assuming he holds on to his contract for 2014, is on his way down the food chain.  He may have the best hair on the grid, but the rest of the package is, as my dad used to say, from hunger.  The irony built into his sponsorship is hilarious, as he is generally Slow Go and No Fun.

The season-long skirmish over eighth place between factory Ducati teammates Andrea Dovizioso and Nicky Hayden continued in full force today, with Dovi coming out on top.  Both were within five seconds of losing to factory tester Michele Pirro, again subbing for the so-finished Ben Spies on the Ignite Pramac junior entry, which would have been thoroughly humiliating in front of the suits from the Bologna factory attending today’s race.  Tech 3 Yamaha #2 Bradley Smith, who has benefitted from some of the Dovizioso/Hayden clashes during the season, could only manage 11th place today during a wasted weekend in the idyllic province of Rimini.  He might as well have been laying out on the beach, his fish belly-white skin getting burned to a crisp.

Changes Afoot at the Bottom of the Pool

Crash.net reports some interesting news from the Pramac and Paul Byrd Motorsports teams today, as ridiculous as that may sound.  Pramac, a little slow on the uptake, is apparently finally convinced that Ben Spies’ season is over, and has reportedly poached Yonny Hernandez from the PBM team to finish the season on its junior Desmosedici.  (Yonny, I hope your health insurance premiums are up-to-date.)  Michele Pirro, who seems to have a great deal of potential, will be going back to testing for Ducati.  All of this is apparently good news too for Michael Laverty, who will be promoted from the team’s ART-powered Frankenbike to its full ART package, with an unfortunate Rider To Be Named Later taking over Laverty’s bucket.

As for this report’s bearing on the 2013 championship, it should be noted that Hernandez has scored seven points this year and Laverty three.

TOP TEN RIDERS 2013 YEAR TO DATE

2013 Top 11 Riders after 13 Rounds

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MotoGP Misano Preview

September 9, 2013

by Bruce Allen.

Motorcycle.com will publish this article on Wednesday or Thursday, complete with hi-rez images.  Until then, please enjoy the raw copy.

Lorenzo and Pedrosa are running out of time 

Factory Yamaha kingpin Jorge Lorenzo kept his faint 2013 title hopes alive in Britain last time out with a stirring, come-from-behind win over rookie Repsol Honda wunderkind Marc Marquez.  That Marquez was competing with a dislocated shoulder on a track perfectly attuned to the YZR-M1’s characteristics makes his 20 point day almost beyond belief.  Marquez’s teammate, pre-season favorite Dani Pedrosa, was reduced to spectator status on a day that put the 2013 season in sharp focus. 

Round 13, the GP Aperol di San Marino e della Riviera di Rimini opens the final third of what has been a shocking premier class season.  For Lorenzo and Pedrosa, who had been expected to battle for the title, San Marino will either thrust one of them back into contention or start the countdown to the first of many MotoGP world championships for Marquez, who competes as if he’s from a different planet.  The Alien of all Aliens, if you will.

Silverstone was a race Jorge Lorenzo had been expected to win, having won there in 2010 and again last year.  He had his game face on all weekend, after third place finishes in Indianapolis and Brno the previous two weeks.  He loves the track, and was fast in practice all three days.  When Marquez went over the handlebars on Sunday morning, it looked like the racing gods were finally smiling on the Mallorcan, offering him the opportunity for an easy win, a chance to gain back a big chunk of the 44 point lead his two shoulder surgeries had given Marquez.  Instead, it took everything he had to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat on the penultimate turn of the race.  Like a big old yellow dog, Marquez appears more dangerous when hurt.

As for Pedrosa, his racing life has turned into a dirt sandwich, and the only choice left to him is whether he wants it on white or wheat.  Appearing more stoic than usual, he seems reconciled the fact that not only is he not going to win the title this year, but he is now unlikely to EVER win a premier class championship.  As my dad used to say, all that meat and no potatoes.  He has now become the Karl Malone of MotoGP, with trophy cases filled to bursting in his spacious den, and not a premier class title to be seen.  Fame and fortune are his, but I suspect he would gladly trade it all for a single MotoGP title.  After his supersonic finish in 2012, winning six of the last eight, and a successful offseason, 2013 looked to be his year.  Having to stand by and watch his 20 year-old teammate bask in the glory of an historic rookie campaign must be a bitter pill to swallow.

And so it goes in 2013.  One or two more wins and Marc Marquez will be able to coast to the title.  Jorge Lorenzo needs the new “magic Yamaha gearbox” right now; there is no tomorrow.  Dani Pedrosa needs a miracle or some serious misfortune to befall his teammate.  And while he’s certainly allowed to wish for the former, hoping for the latter is out of bounds, even for a sport in which teammates are usually rivals.  At this point, Pedrosa’s only chance is to out-Marquez Marquez, take the fight to him, and let Shuhei Nakamoto worry about the fallout.

Recent History at Misano

2009, The Year of Valentino Rossi’s Last World Championship, saw Rossi win on his Fiat Yamaha, punking hot-blooded teammate Lorenzo on his way to the title, while Pedrosa claimed third and Andrea Dovizioso, also on a factory Honda, took fourth.  That year, Alex de Angelis seemed to aim his Gresini Honda at Colin Edwards’ Tech 3 Yamaha on the first lap, unseating Edwards, whose suddenly rider-less bike proceeded to remove Nicky Hayden from his factory Ducati.  Hayden and Edwards had to be restrained by the marshals in the gravel, each eager to administer a lesson on the finer points of motorcycle riding to de Angelis, with their fists.

The 2010 MotoGP race was a grim affair won eventually by Pedrosa.  Lorenzo and Rossi joined him on the podium for a subdued post-race celebration, followed again by Dovizioso.  Earlier in the day, Moto2 pilot Shoya Tomizawa died following a gruesome crash involving Scott Redding and de Angelis. That day, we also learned that Cal Crutchlow would be making the jump from WSBK to the Tech 3 Yamaha team, replacing Ben Spies, who was tagged to take Rossi’s seat on the factory Yamaha team after Rossi left to join Ducati, in one of the worst career moves ever, by anyone, in any sport, anywhere.  Just sayin’.

cropped-jorge-lorenzo-2013.jpg2011 was Lorenzo’s year, as he easily defeated Pedrosa while Casey Stoner, on his way to the championship, finished an uninspired third.  Marco Simoncelli claimed fourth place that day, one of the better outings in his too-short MotoGP career, at the track that now bears his name.  For the third consecutive year, Nicky Hayden failed to finish, crashing out unassisted early in the race.

Last year, chaos reigned at the start, a long story which resulted in Pedrosa starting from the back of the grid and ended with his getting Barbera’ed on the first lap.  With Lorenzo busy running away from the field, the way was suddenly clear for dark horses Valentino Rossi and Alvaro Bautista to claim spots on the podium.  Pedrosa, who had started the day trailing Lorenzo by a mere 13 points with six rounds to go, ended it trailing by 38, his day and season ruined by a combination of bad luck and Hector Barbera’s persistent lack of spatial awareness.

Rossi winning at Brno. Courtesy of motogp.com

Rossi winning at Brno. Courtesy of motogp.com

Lest I forget, it should be noted that Marc Marquez won here in 2010 in the 125 class, and also claimed the top spot on the podium in 2011 and 2012 in Moto2.  If you think this weekend’s tilt will be a cage match between the defending world champion and putative 2013 world champion, it shows you’ve been paying attention.  Naturally, most of the fans in attendance will miss the action up front, pulling for Rossi, who figures to battle Pedrosa for third, and Andrea Dovizioso, primed for another grudge match with factory Ducati teammate Nicky Hayden over 8th place.  Jeesh.  Are there any bigger homers anywhere than Italian racing fans?

Your Weekend Forecast

Just kidding.  Herve Poncharal, the big cheese at Monster Tech 3 Yamaha, was speculating on Crash.net this week that the MotoGP calendar may be expanding to 20 rounds next season, with Brazil and Argentina joining the mix and no current venues falling off the schedule.  This, to me, sounds rather unlikely, as most of the riders seem to have a hard time completing an 18 round schedule without several visits to intensive care.  But God knows Poncharal is closer to the action than I am.

OK, OK, the weather forecast for the weekend is sunny and lovely, temps in the 70’s and clear skies, etc., etc.  Great conditions for everyone but the mudders on the factory Ducati team.  If I had to make a prediction, I’d make it Lorenzo, Marquez and Rossi.  Fortunately, I don’t.

Fox Sports 1 will carry the race live on Sunday, with coverage, and the race, starting at 8 am Eastern time.  We’ll have results right here on Sunday afternoon.

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MotoGP Silverstone Results

September 1, 2013

by Bruce Allen      September 1, 2013

An edited version of this story can be found at Motorcycle.com , complete with hi-rez images.

Lorenzo steals a win in Britain; Marquez extends lead 

Factory Yamaha titan Jorge Lorenzo gave a clinic in grand prix racing today in front of a huge crowd of soccer hooligans, out-racing Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquez to the flag in an instant classic.  That Marquez was in the chase at all today constitutes a minor miracle after he dislocated his left shoulder in the morning warm-up practice.  Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa completed the all-Alien podium in a result that was more style than substance. 

Not that this wasn’t about as exciting a race as you ever get in MotoGP.  Lorenzo and the wounded rookie got away from the field at the start, while Pedrosa, who used to leave the starting line as if having been launched by an ICBM, got caught up in traffic.  Dani would join the leaders at the front several laps later, but would never advance farther than third place.  Even so, as a leather-clad spectator, he had the best view in the house of the battle between the healthy Lorenzo and the injured Marquez, racing, as it were, with one hand tied behind his back.

Prior to the start, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and even aging Yamaha legend Valentino Rossi resembled sharks smelling blood in the water.  Silverstone, it suddenly seemed, was where they could finally get a little payback for the can of whup-ass Marquez had opened on them two months ago.  Today, it was the veteran Aliens who were healthy, while the upstart had a debilitating injury.  Surely today Pedrosa and Lorenzo could gain back some serious ground in the 2013 championship.

Um, no.  Marquez, unable to lift his left arm at all after the race, began the day 26 points in front of Pedrosa and heads to Misano leading by 30.  Lorenzo shaved five points off the rookie’s lead and now trails by 39 after a largely symbolic victory at a track seemingly designed for the Yamaha M1.  The Mallorcan, usually the picture of calm class, celebrated his win in a manner befitting an NFL wide receiver dancing in the endzone after snaring a touchdown pass with his team down 30.  Such is the desperation in the factory Yamaha garage two-thirds of the way through the disastrous 2013 campaign.

That it took several amazing last-lap moves by the defending world champion to deprive the one-armed rookie from his fifth consecutive premier class win is but another sign of the apocalypse facing MotoGP.  As has been said elsewhere, MotoGP appears to be entering the two-wheeled equivalent of “The Schumacher Years” that damaged F-1 so badly.

I, for one, used to enjoy seeing Tiger Woods take on the golfing world back in the day, winning week in and week out.  Otherwise, I get nothing from watching an individual dominate his sport the way Marquez appears set to do for the next decade.  And just the thought that Marquez could suffer a career-damaging injury is enough of a karma-killer to make one lose his job, his wife, his dog and his ride, destined to spend eternity roasting in the flames of you-know-where.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Once again this week, former Alien Valentino Rossi was reduced to battling LCR Honda pilot Stefan Bradl and GO&FUN Gresini’s Alvaro Bautista for a hollow fourth place finish, and once again Rossi prevailed.  Bautista is probably hearing footsteps about now, as it has been announced that Scott Redding would be joining his team next season on a “production” Honda, in preparation for the Spaniard’s virtually inevitable ejaculation from the #1 seat on the Gresini team in 2015.

Announcer Nick Harris alluded to the “success-starved British fans” in attendance who, other than Roger Bannister’s breaking of the four minute mile barrier back in 1952, have had little, other than “football,” to cheer about since the RAF kicked Hitler’s Luftwaffe out of the skies in the Battle of Britain.  (Okay, Barry Sheene won a coupla motorcycle world championships back in the 70’s, before most of today’s more rabid fans were born.)

Scott Redding did come through for them in Moto2, winning a thriller over Taka Nakagami and Thomas Luthi in the warm-up to the main event.  But the two Brits on the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha team, Cal Crutchlow and local fave Bradley Smith, endured a rough weekend.  Crutchlow went through about €400,000 worth of bikes crashing twice on Saturday and again today.  (The marshals were busy trying to scrape the remains of his bike out of the gravel in the morning when Marquez’s riderless RC213V came flying at them, narrowly avoiding yet more mayhem.)  Smith never got it going all weekend, qualifying 10th and finishing 9th after losing a spot when Ducati slogger Andrea Dovizioso, who never crashes, crashed out in front of him late in the day.

2013 top 10 after 12 rounds

In Case You Were Wondering

Anyone still reading this article knows that Marc Marquez, at 20 years of age, is re-writing the MotoGP record books.  I thought it would be interesting to see what the other three Aliens were doing at the same age.

Lorenzo turned 20 during the 2007 season, his third season in the 250cc class, during which he won his second 250cc championship for Aprilia.  He would graduate to the premier class the next year and finish 4th, second in 2009, and won his first premier class championship in 2010 at age 23.

Pedrosa was 20 during the 2006 season, his first in MotoGP after winning the 125 title in 2003 and the 250cc titles in 2004-2005, also for Aprilia.  He finished 5th during his rookie year on the big bikes and has been many times a bridesmaid, never a bride.  His entire premier class career has been spent riding Hondas.

Valentino Rossi was just out of his teens during the 1999 season, during which he won the 250cc title for Aprilia—this is starting to sound familiar—before graduating to the premier class in 2000, where he captured second place in his rookie season.  He won the next five titles to cement his legend, and took two more in 2008 and 2009, before age and Ducati Corse caught up with him.

Some Clarity Emerging for 2014

In addition to the announcement concerning Scott Redding joining the Gresini team, the Aspar team announced this week that they would contest the 2014 season on significantly upgraded Aprilia packages.  Though there has been no announcement concerning riders, speculation in the paddock has current Aspar rider Aleix Espargaro defecting to the NGM Forward Racing team next season, where he will compete on a gently used and lovingly re-conditioned Yamaha M1 with the “slow” software, 24 liters of fuel, and plenty of engines to last the season.  Apparently, he will join Colin Edwards, whose services are, for whatever reason, being retained for yet another year. All of this seems only fair, since Aleix’s brother Pol, getting promoted from Moto2, will be riding a satellite Yamaha on the Monster Tech 3 team alongside Bradley Smith.

For the benefit of the last few of you still with us, Hectic Hector Barbera continues working his way down the food chain, and is alleged to be heading to World Superbikes next season.  As Misano approaches in two weeks, the silly season drags on.  With Marc Marquez expected to be at full strength, the onslaught at the front looks likely to resume on the Adriatic Riviera.  We’ll be there, praying that The Schumacher Years aren’t descending upon MotoGP.

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MotoGP Silverstone 2013 Preview

August 27, 2013

by Bruce Allen

An edited version of this story, complete with hi-rez images, will post on Motorcycle.com on, like, Thursday.  Until then, enjoy the raw copy.

Can anyone, other than Marquez, stop Marquez? 

As Round 12 of the 2013 MotoGP season looms, it becomes easier and  easier to imagine the unimaginable—a rookie winning the premier class  title.  Repsol Honda phenom Marc Marquez continues to defy expectations  with the composure and confidence of a seasoned veteran.  Back in 1971,  French humanist Rene Dubos observed, “Trend is not destiny,” but this  Spanish rider may be the exception to the rule. 

Captain America - 2013Sportswriters and bloggers love to engage in hypotheticals—if this hadn’t  happened, if so-and-so were thus and such—and the conversation  surrounding Marquez is full of this gibberish.  If Lorenzo hadn’t crashed twice  in two weeks…If Pedrosa hadn’t fallen in Germany…If Marquez hadn’t crashed at Mugello… (this last one is my own work, sorry to say.)  But here we are, in the midst of a minor miracle.  Let’s take a short look back at how we’ve arrived at this point. 

The 2013 season had been running per expectations through Round 6 at Catalunya.  Repsol Honda star Dani Pedrosa and factory Yamaha #1 Jorge Lorenzo were slugging it out at the top, while Marquez was serving his apprenticeship, sitting in third place, with 5 podiums, a win, and a rookie crash out of the lead in Italy.  At that time he trailed Pedrosa by 23 and Lorenzo by 14.  Pretty much as expected.  However, at Assen, things changed.

Lorenzo crashed on Friday, had surgery, returned, and ran a gutty 5th on a day he probably should have been in the hospital.  Marquez finished second to Rossi, who gave us a fleeting glimpse of his classic form.  Pedrosa struggled to a 4th place finish.  Marquez picked up seven points on Pedrosa and nine on Lorenzo.

At the Sachsenring, the wheels came off, so to speak, for the two favorites, as both Pedrosa and Lorenzo crashed heavily in practice.  Both would miss the race, which Marquez won, the beginning of his current four race win streak.  That day, Marquez went from 23 down to Pedrosa to two up.  As MotoGP’s summer break approached, Lorenzo and Pedrosa entered rehab, and Marquez entered the ionosphere.

Winning at Laguna took his margin over Pedrosa to 16.  A third consecutive win at Indianapolis ran the lead to 22.  Sunday’s victory at Brno stretched it to 26.  As any rider who has won a championship will tell you, having a margin of more than 25 points over your closest challenger relieves a great deal of pressure.  It means that even in a perfect storm, one in which you go ragdoll and your rival wins, you will still be in the frame.  It provides a margin for error, a psychological pressure-relief valve.

Assume Marquez crashes out this week at Silverstone.  So what?  He will still be leading a series few expected him to win at the beginning of the season.  He will still have at least three very friendly tracks in his future—Sepang, Motegi and Valenciana.  Unless he gets hurt in a significant way he will still be in the mix.  His confidence is off the charts.  His rivals are spooked.  He will retain the inside track to the title.  And if he wins, or podiums, at Silverstone, well…

Marquez now enjoys not only the lead, but the freedom to relax and focus on the process of becoming a premier class champion, rather than individual outcomes.  At this point, the specific result of each round is less important than continuing up the learning curve, as he was doing early in the season.  He doesn’t need to run the table.  He can’t allow Pedrosa to finish 2013 the way he did 2012, with six wins in eight rounds.  But Pedrosa is still not 100% physically, and his spirit is wounded, too.  He is in an inferior position compared to this time last year.

With 8 rounds left in 2012, Pedrosa trailed Lorenzo by 23 points.  Even winning six of the last eight, he ultimately lost to the Mallorcan by 18.  At this point in 2013, both Pedrosa and Lorenzo are pressing, while Marquez is chilling.  It seems unlikely there will be a great deal of change at the top of the standings for the remainder of the season.  But a word of caution is in order.  At this point in 2011, it looked like Marco Simoncelli was going to be the next great MotoGP rider.  Trend, after all, is not destiny.

Recent History at Silverstone

The British Grand Prix moved from dowdy Donington Park to sleek Silverstone in 2010, with major renovations at the Northampton circuit continuing into 2011.  The 2010 race featured a master class victory by Jorge Lorenzo on the way to his first world championship that fall.

Repsol Honda pilot Andrea Dovizioso, who had won his first and only premier class race at the 2009 event, finished a gratifying second on his Repsol Honda, with then rookie Monster Tech 3 Yamaha pilot Ben Spies “pipping” compatriot Nicky Hayden at the flag for his first premier class podium.  2010 was the year Ducati flagbearer Casey Stoner qualified sixth and went through the first turn of Lap One in, like, last place, only to fight his way back to a 5th place finish at the flag, his teeth by then having been ground down to the gum line.

2011 was a head-scratcher, as Casey Stoner drove his Repsol Honda to a convincing rain-soaked win on his way to his second title that fall.  Once again, Dovizioso claimed second place for Honda and established himself as a “mudder.”  The surprise of the day involved American Colin Edwards, who had fractured his collarbone the previous week at Le Mans.  Riding the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha on a day he should have been resting in bed, the Texan managed his only podium of the year, likely the last of his career.

It should be noted that Edwards’ remarkable day took place with Pedrosa and homeboy Cal Crutchlow out with injuries, while Lorenzo, Spies and Simoncelli crashed out.  Another way of characterizing Edwards’ 2011 British GP would be to say he finished in front of nine riders.  (This year, that would put him somewhere around 15th place.)  The Texas Tornado would rightly insist that a podium finish is a podium finish.

The British Invasion

No, it’s not The Beatles, The Rolling Stones and the Kinks.  It’s Cal Crutchlow, Bradley Smith and Scott Redding, all furiously playing the “home race” card.  Crutchlow and Smith crashed out of the points last week at Brno, putting a bit of a damper on their prospects heading home for the weekend.  Redding, leading the Moto2 series and ticketed for MotoGP next year, struggled in the Czech Republic too, finishing eighth while teammate Mika Kallio won for the first time in his Moto2 career.  The stands are likely to be packed this weekend, and the weather forecast is surprisingly nice, with cool clear conditions forecast for all three days. 

All this homecoming stuff is, of course, a sideshow.  The main event will be amongst the heavyweights at the front.  For Jorge Lorenzo, as the Brits say, it’s win or bin.  On the Repsol Honda team, it will be High Anxiety vs. The Boy Wonder and his sidekick, Mo Mentum.  If you’re a betting person, you gotta go with the double-team.

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