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MotoGP 2015 Phillip Island Preview

October 13, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Lorenzo needs to win big this week and next

Movistar Yamaha idol Jorge Lorenzo, he of the two fairly recent world championships, has a steep hill to climb to set up a climactic finale to the 2015 season in Valencia. Which, in turn, necessitates opening a can of whupass on his legendary Italian teammate and rival, Valentino Rossi this week in Australia and next time out in Malaysia. It’s hard to envision Rossi, at this stage of his career, allowing an 18 point lead to disappear in two weeks. Sure, I know, that’s what Marquez almost did last year; my money’s on the old guy anyway.

Recent History at the Australian Grand Prix

2012. Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa, pressing, trailing Lorenzo by 23 points with two rounds left, in full “win or bin”

2012/10/20 - mgp - Round16 - Sepang - MotoGP - Casey Stoner - Repsol Honda - RC213V - Action

Casey Stoner circa 2012

mode, crashed early, his day and season over in one fell swoop. Stoner won for the sixth consecutive time at Phillip Island. Lorenzo finished a comfortable second and clinched the title, becoming the first Spanish double world champion. Other than Stoner’s Honda, it was two/three/four for Yamaha, as Lorenzo captured second, Cal Crutchlow in the Tech 3 Yamaha took third, and his Tech 3 teammate Andrea Dovizioso crossed the line fourth.

2013: Lorenzo won comfortably over Pedrosa, with Rossi, Crutchlow and Alvaro Bautista gripped in a hair-raising battle cropped-jorge-lorenzo-2013.jpgfor third that saw Rossi beat Crutchlow by .11 seconds while Crutchlow pipped the Gresini Honda pilot by .053 seconds, the blink of an eye. The first Australian Grand Prix in seven years not to feature Casey Stoner at the top of the podium. Marquez took the cheap DQ when he failed to pit in time, as Bridgestone struggled mightily to provide the teams with safe rubber up against a new, abrasive and untested racing surface. Even Race Direction was unable to keep Marquez out of the title in his rookie year.

2014: Marc Marquez crashes out of a four second lead on Lap 18 as his Bridgestone front seems to turn to glass. 23 Rossi 2014riders start the race; 14 finish. Thus relieved of the pesky Catalan wonder, Valentino Rossi led a trio of Yamaha M1s over the line, joined on the podium by Lorenzo and premier class podium virgin Bradley Smith, who whipped his Tech 3 Yamaha to his first premier class podium. Ever. None of it really mattered, as Marquez left Down Under ahead of chaser Lorenzo by 18 points on the way to his second world championship.

A Little Perspective

That Phillip Island is a Yamaha-friendly track is virtually beyond dispute, now that Casey Stoner has retired. Both Rossi and Lorenzo have enjoyed success in Australia, Rossi’s mainly coming in the pre-Stoner days until winning last year. Jorge Lorenzo is capable of winning at any track in the world. He is MORE capable of winning at a circuit like Phillip Island so well-suited to his riding style. If he gets out in front on Sunday, and the creek don’t rise, he’ll probably take an easy win. Rossi doesn’t need to win; he just needs to figure out how to stay close to the front. In front of Lorenzo, as always, is better than behind Lorenzo.

It is easy to imagine this being a race Marquez wants to win badly. After a ho-hum fourth place finish in Japan on Sunday, Marquez remains winless at Motegi in the premier class, followed this week by Phillip Island as the only two venues where he has yet to win in the MotoGP class. At Motegi, the story was the weather. This weekend the story will probably be the track, as Phillip Island is the fastest track on the calendar, and the Yamahas love it here. The intra-team battle at Movistar Yamaha promises to overshadow any other considerations. Beyond the weather, it will pay to watch tire degradation, as the Yamahas suffered last time out. The new surface at Phillip Island is highly abrasive; the Hondas, especially the minute Pedrosa, may enjoy an advantage late in the day when fuel loads have dropped and tires are going south.

In dry conditions, it still seems that the Aliens—Lorenzo and Rossi, Marquez and Pedrosa—continue to dominate the proceedings. Pedrosa made Lorenzo’s job harder last week by winning at Motegi, taking the win away from the Mallorcan and pushing him to shred his front tire early, allowing Rossi to go through late in the day.

Up until Sunday, Lorenzo was telling the world that all he needed to do was to win the remaining rounds to be world champion. Now, even that daunting task will not be enough, as he needs a Repsol Honda between him, winning, and Rossi, dropped to third place in this scenario, the only one that presents a realistic shot at this thing. Unless Rossi crashes… In short, Lorenzo has now lost control of his destiny. He needs to run the table and hope Rossi suffers some misfortune.

I can’t speak for everyone here, but what I want this season is for Lorenzo and Rossi to head to Valencia tied. Winner take all in Spain. The neatest, most simple way for this to occur is for Lorenzo to win, Marquez or Pedrosa to place and Rossi to show in each of the next two Pacific rounds. I don’t want Lorenzo (or Rossi, for that matter) to arrive in Valencia with some mathematical chance of winning, any kind of slim possibility or puncher’s choice.

I want them going there dead even.

That would be a race.

All of which means Lorenzo needs to win in Australia and hope for help from one, or both, of the Repsol Honda guys, who are clearly capable of providing such help. They’re equally capable of winning the daggone race, which would make Lorenzo’s job even harder, trying to stretch 20 points to reach as far as 25 would go. As is almost always the case, all Lorenzo can really do is go out and try to win the race. Any effort to control what might be going on behind him, by, for example, coming back to the pack, is unlikely to pay great dividends.

Alex de Angelis

alex-de-angelis (1)After watching Alex de Angelis go handspringing through the gravel in practice at Jerez in 2010 along with the remnants of his bike, I thought he was indestructible. (Search YouTube for “Alex de Angelis practice crash Jerez 2010”) And he walked away from that one. We read yesterday that his condition following his crash in FP4 at Motegi is now rated “critical,” and that he has blood on the brain, broken vertebrae, a punctured lung, and more.

These guys risk their lives every time they suit up. We have noted in this space often in the past that the difference between the best and the worst in this sport is razor-thin, a couple of seconds per lap. This is the chosen profession of every rider out there; only a handful get to compete at literally the highest level in the world. Alex de Angelis has been one of those men. Add him to the list of people we must try to be nicer to.

We presume that Alex will recover and return to racing, if not this year then next, and send our sincere best wishes to his family, his team and his fans.

Your Weekend Forecast

High temps will be dropping from the 90’s on Thursday to the low 70’s on Sunday, with the best chance of rain on Saturday. The wind, as always, will be blowing hard from a different direction each day of the weekend, possibly becoming yet another factor in a pivotal contest.

Valentino Rossi, enjoying life with the lead, can afford to be strategic this weekend. No need to ride the wheels off his bike to take a win unless it’s Lorenzo in front of him and he just can’t help himself. For Jorge Lorenzo, the playoffs begin this week. Staying close to the front is no longer an option. He needs to run the table, praying for good weather and all things Spanish.

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Pedrosa, Rossi and Lorenzo ready to rumble for 2nd place

October 18, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Phillip Island Preview, by Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

In what is likely to be a preview of the rest of the decade in MotoGP, three Aliens not named Marquez will begin their assault on the vice-championship this week at Phillip Island. Heading into Round 16 Down Under, a mere three points separate Yamaha ironman Jorge Lorenzo from teammate Valentino Rossi, who sits tied with Repsol Honda mini-Marc Dani Pedrosa. While world champion Marc Marquez’ mom dusts off some space in the family trophy case for the 2014 hardware, there’s plenty of racing left this season. victory helmet

Late in 2012, while MotoGP legend Casey Stoner was busy winning his sixth consecutive Australian GP here, we suggested it might be fitting to rename the track Stoner Island, an idea widely ignored in Australia but adopted, strangely enough, in San Marino, which renamed its own circuit in memory of the late Marco Simoncelli. Given the fact that Simoncelli missed his chance to win a premier class race, while Stoner’s victory count is somewhere in the 40’s, you wouldn’t expect much resistance to the idea from the locals, who have precious little else to brag about. A couple of tennis players from back in the 60’s, maybe. Whatever.

Who, you may be wondering, holds the record for the second-most wins at Phillip Island, presuming Stoner owns the record? I mean, after all, we’re squarely in the midst of trying to generate some excitement over an impending battle for second place in 2014. So, again, who has the second most career wins at Phillip Island? Casey Stoner, that’s who, with his six. Valentino Rossi, with seven, holds the record, with one win having come in the 500cc class in 2001 and two in the 250cc class in 1998 and 1999. OK, so Stoner had the most premier class wins; we’ll give him an asterisk for his trouble.

Now, for $500 and the game, who won the race in 2006, in between Rossi’s four in a row and Stoner’s six? Nicky Hayden? No, dude has only three career wins in the premier class, none of which came in Australia. Dani Pedrosa? No, he was a sullen, aggressive rookie in 2006 and finished 15th that year. Drum roll, please…the winner of the 2006 Australian Grand Prix was… Marco Melandri onboard the Gresini Honda.

More Recent History at Phillip Island

STONER_PI2012 marked the last of Stoner’s six wins at his home crib. That year, Jorge Lorenzo struggled to second place, some nine seconds in arrears. Five seconds behind Lorenzo was Cal Crutchlow on the Tech 3 Yamaha, scoring his second career podium in the premier class that day. Pedrosa, pedaling as hard as he could over the second half of the season to catch leader Jorge Lorenzo, lost his marbles on Lap 2 and saw his day and his season come to another dismal end. The best race-in-the-race that day saw Andrea Dovizioso win a thrilling run to the flag, punking both Alvaro Bautista and Stefan Bradl and their respective Hondas by a few hundredths of a second.

Last year’s race was a fiasco from start to finish. Over the previous winter, the track owners had invested $3 million resurfacing the circuit, making it the grippiest, fastest circuit on the calendar. And, incidentally, the most rubber-hungry surface on earth. With its host of high-speed bends, the riders were generating enormous amounts of heat in the tires, which were decomposing beneath them as fast as the crews could put them on. Bridgestone, in its infinite wisdom (read: unwillingness to spend the money testing their tires on the new surface), arrived in Australia to a symphony of complaints, ranging from Carmelo Ezpeleta to the kid who drives Jorge Lorenzo’s scooter in the pit area.

By Sunday, Race Direction was issuing Orders of the Day every half hour. The race was shortened from 27 laps to 26, then to 19, then to 19 with a mandatory tire change by the end of Lap 10. The teams set up two bikes for each rider, each equipped with soft tires and half a tank of gas, and the lights went out. As Lap 10 was ending, Lorenzo and Marquez were leading, running shoulder to shoulder. Lorenzo exited into pit lane as Marquez, inexplicably, kept right on going, only to pit at the end of Lap 11.marc-marquez-black-flag

The combination of a flurry of ad hoc rule changes being translated into three or four different languages with riders’ lives and millions of dollars of machinery hanging in the balance proved too much for Marquez and his team, whose late tire change resulted in a black flag DQ on Lap 15, handing the race to Lorenzo. The win kept the Mallorcan in contention for the title, which he only grudgingly surrendered two weeks later in Valencia. Pedrosa and Rossi made up the rest of the podium, with Rossi pipping Crutchlow and Bautista at the finish for the only satisfying moment of the entire day.

You Heard It Here Last

We have been somewhat derelict in keeping up with the rider changes happening in the second echelon of MotoGP in preparation for the 2015 season. This is due in part to the fact that every single motorcycle publication on earth has published the abundant team press releases, including ourselves. At this point, all but two or three seats have been claimed.

Familiar faces changing livery for 2015 are headlined by Cal Crutchlow and Stefan Bradl, as the Brit takes over for Bradl on the #1 LCR Honda and Bradl downshifts to join Forward Racing. Danilo Petrucci goes from the Ioda Racing frying pan to the Pramac Ducati fire, where he will join Yonny Hernandez on the junior Corse team. And Aleix Espargaro gets to realize his dream of riding for a factory team, as he moves from Forward Racing’s Open class machine to the new Suzuki GSX-RR.

At least four new faces will grace the grid next season. The Drive 7 Aspar team is giving Hiro Aoyama the boot in favor of Eugene Laverty, who joins the premier class, alongside teammate Nicky Hayden, after several productive seasons in World Superbike. With Paul Byrd folding up his tent next year, we are spared the sight of two Lavertys on the grid, as brother Michael is “evaluating opportunities” in WSBK and British Superbike, i.e., scrambling to find some kind of ride on road courses rather than dirt ovals.

Up-and-coming Moto2 grad Maverick Vinales brings his game to MotoGP joining Aleix Espargaro on the factory Suzuki. Forward Racing, having ejected Colin Edwards and, in turn, been jilted by the elder Espargaro, will make a go of it with Bradl and Frenchman Loris Baz, all 6’3” of him, who will try to fold himself around the Yamaha powered machine, elbows and knees sticking out all over the place, sure to remind some of us of Super Sic the way he used to look on his Gresini Honda. But without question, the highest profile rookie heading into 2015 will be Jack Miller, the young Australian skipping a grade, moving directly to the premier class from Moto3 on a three year deal, the first of which is likely to be spent in various hospitals around the globe. Crikey, but that’s a steep learning curve, Mr. Miller.

Fausto Gresini, in his eternal quest for Italian riders for his satellite squad, has abandoned his relationship with Honda in favor of a low budget operation with Aprilia for the next few years, with Alvaro Bautista somehow retaining his #1 seat with the team, a second rider yet to be named. Scott Redding moves to Marc VDS Racing and their shiny new factory spec Honda, which should elevate the Brit’s game and set up some interesting fights with countryman Crutchlow on the same bike. Hayden, Laverty, Miller and Karel Abraham will be the beneficiaries of an upgrade in the so-called customer Hondas, as the Japanese factory switches out the severely underpowered RCV1000R in favor of what they’re calling the 213V-RS, powered by this year’s fire-breathing RC213V engine in conjunction with a standard ECU and complete with Open class fuel, engine, testing and tire concessions.

Like I said 1400 words ago, there’s still plenty going on in MotoGP. The Marquez Years are upon us, and we must look past young Marc, seeking our pleasure in the profane, the ridiculous and the sublime, all of which are in lavish supply as the 2014 season wends its way to the finish line at Valencia in November.

We’ll have Phillip Island results right here on Sunday evening.

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Heading back to Spain, Marquez needs to focus

September 22, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Aragon Previiew

Bruce Allen  © Motorcycle.com

For Repsol Honda super soph Marc Marquez, who flirted with perfection for much of the season, there remain but three goals for the 2014 MotoGP season. First and foremost—win the title, which is pretty much a done deal. Second—stay out of the hospital, which is to say take no unnecessary risks in a sport which is, by its very nature, risky. Third and last—break Mick Doohan’s all-time record of 12 wins in a single season.

raineyrossi1vt

Wayne Rainey and Vali

You and I would probably reverse the first two, which is one reason we’re not out there competing for world championships in anything. I was once told that to be successful in advertising, one had to lack the ability to recognize life-threatening situations. This goes without saying in motorcycle racing, where the trajectory of one’s life can change in an instant. Thus all the wheelchairs one sees at AMA events. And while we are consistently hard on the so-called back markers in the premier class, it must be admitted that all are hugely talented and courageous beyond belief. The difference between The Aliens and the Michael Lavertys is on the order of three to four seconds per lap. All of which validates the second of my tired clichés this week—the difference between good and great, in anything, is about 2%.

Marquez swims across the lineMarquez, with a 70-some point lead over teammate Dani Pedrosa and Yamaha icon Valentino Rossi, can clinch the title at Phillip Island with a couple of top two finishes between now and then. Not a tall order at all for the uniquely gifted young Spaniard. With 11 wins under his belt already, it is hard to imagine he won’t at least tie Doohan. And, should he tie Doohan with, say, two or three rounds left on the schedule, I expect he will go for the record. Despite the fact that he experienced the most serious crash of his career at Sepang in 2011, it would be tempting to go for history in the Honda-friendly Malaysian heat.

Recent History at Aragon

Despite the fact that Motorland Aragon was only added to the MotoGP calendar in 2010 as an emergency replacement for the still-born Hungarian circuit, there have been some great performances there in the years since. The track itself is a gorgeous place. The stacked stone wall looks like something straight out of the Inquisition, while the giant electronic billboard at the other end provides a stunning contrast, from medieval to ultra-modern. Too bad it’s stuck out in the middle of nowhere, 150 miles west of Barcelona. Not as remote as the Rio Hondo circuit in Argentina, but not exactly convenient. To anywhere.

Back in 2011, Honda stalwart Casey Stoner, on his way to his second premier class title, arrived at Aragon leading defending champion and Yamaha #1 Jorge Lorenzo by 35 points. At the start, Stoner and teammate Pedrosa went off to play by themselves, leaving Lorenzo to fiddle around with the likes of Gresini Honda pilot Marco Simoncelli and Yamaha teammate Ben Spies, both of whom he ended up beating soundly. Stoner took the top step on the podium and essentially clinched to 2011 title that day, leaving Lorenzo time to start getting accustomed to being referred to as “former champion.”

In 2012, it was Dani’s Revenge, as Pedrosa, who trailed the incandescent Lorenzo by 38 points on the heels of his last-row-start-first-lap-crash Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380at Misano two weeks earlier, won comfortably. Lorenzo claimed second that day, playing it safe, while Monster Tech 3 climber Andrea Dovizioso pushed his satellite Yamaha to the limit all day on his way to a satisfying third place finish. Pedrosa epitomized the “win or bin” mentality so often spoken of in racing, generally by Brits, by winning six of his last eight races that year and crashing out of the other two. Despite piling up his highest career point total in 2012, Pedrosa would end the year 18 points behind Lorenzo, a bridesmaid once again.

Last year, rookie Marc Marquez, not having been informed that Aragon was a Yamaha-friendly layout, calmly went out, took Jorge Lorenzo’s best shot, and beat him by 1.3 seconds. Valentino Rossi, in his first year back on the factory Yamaha after the two year exile with Ducati, took a rather hollow third, some 12 seconds behind Lorenzo. Marquez’ 39 point lead over Lorenzo at the end of the day would prove insurmountable. Notwithstanding the chippy DQ he absorbed at Phillip Island three weeks later, he clinched his first premier class title with a strong second place finish at Valencia on the last day of the season.

The Bottom Line

Marquez has now proven himself mortal, with his off-the-podium finish at Brno and the super slo-mo crash last time out at Misano. He doesn’t need to be sensational to achieve his #1 remaining 2014 goal, just good. He mustn’t lose concentration as the season winds down, in order to achieve his #2 goal. And, he will have several opportunities to secure his #3 goal, and further cement his place in MotoGP history, during the remaining rounds. This week’s race would actually be a good place to take a crack at #12, as Aragon is not what they call a terribly “technical” layout. With two wins here in the last three tries, he can go for the pole, check the competition in the first few laps, and decide mid-race whether conditions warrant going for the win. Moreover, he need not worry too much about what Lorenzo does, as the “threat”, such as it is, resides in Pedrosa and Rossi.

Quick Hitters

308_p01_pirro_portrait

Michele Pirro

This is the time of year when Gresini Honda slacker Alvaro Bautista typically rises from the dead. Since joining the Italian team in 2012, he has accumulated the bulk of his points in the second half of the season, narrowly averting a rough dismissal each year. This year, the team is leaving him; say hello to the factory Aprilia team, Alvaro. Perhaps Michele Pirro will become your teammate. He can certainly ride the Ducati, which means he can ride anything…KTM has announced it will join the grid in 2017 and begin testing at the end of next season. Having six manufacturers will certainly be more interesting than having three, although it probably won’t have much to do with goings-on at the top of the food chain…No word yet on whether Nicky Hayden will actually return to the sluggish Aspar customer Honda this round, this year, or ever again…Eugene Laverty, in a Field of Dreams moment, announced he will join the premier class next season, but that he doesn’t actually know, just now, with whom. Staging the announcement before signing the contract is the moto equivalent of “build it and they will come.”… Can two Lavertys be any more exciting than the one that has already accumulated three points this year? Just sayin’…Weather.com says it will be sunny and in the 70’s in Alcaniz this weekend, but Weather.com doesn’t know squat.

The race goes off again this week at 8 am Eastern time. We’ll have results later on Sunday, as the editorial staff at Motorcycle.com will have sobered up and returned to their customary post-equinox stations by then.

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Honda, Marquez look to repeat in Deutschland

July 8, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Sachsenring Preview, by Bruce Allen

Going back to 2007, the Repsol Honda team has won five of the last seven MotoGP events at The Sachsenring, Ground Zero of German motorsports. Dani Pedrosa enjoyed a hat trick here between 2010 and 2012, while teammate Marc Marquez, for whom we have officially run out of superlatives, won last year, the first of four consecutive wins that would culminate in his claiming the 2013 premier class title. There exists no credible reason to believe the top two steps of the podium will not be draped in Repsol orange, red and black on Sunday afternoon.

Marquez swims across the lineThe longer The Streak continues, the harder it gets to suggest that someone other than Marquez will take the checkered flag on Sundays. A number of other publications, notably MotoGP.com, rattle on week after week about how Pedrosa, or the strongmen of the Movistar Yamaha team, Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo, look capable of heading off the 21 year-old Catalan. Our commitment to keeping it real, however, requires us to acknowledge that, barring an unforeseeable mechanical failure or carelessness on the part of another rider early in the race, Marquez is going to win in Germany. The guy does not beat himself.

This, then, is another instance in which we would prefer, all things being equal, to be wrong. Such was the case in 2010 when we predicted that Valentino Rossi was in for a miserable two years headlining the factory Ducati team. Or last year at this time, when we predicted that Cal Crutchlow, on his way to Ducati Corse, would trail both Tech 3 Yamaha riders, Pol Espargaro and Bradley Smith, in the final 2014 standings. All of us have heard the adage in the paddock that MotoGP is 80% rider and 20% bike, an observation borne out by Casey Stoner in 2007. Marc Marquez is the only other rider we’ve seen since then capable of winning on the Ducati; as intelligent (and well-paid) as he seems, there is virtually no chance we’ll ever see him on the beastly Desmosedici.

Let’s just pile on with one more observation about Marquez and The Sachsenring. He’s been racing grand prix bikes there since he was 15 years old. The last time he lost in Germany, he was 16. It’s one of his favorite tracks. The summer break just can’t come soon enough.

Recent History at The Sachsenring

Up until last year, one had to regard Repsol #2 Dani Pedrosa as The Man at this track. He won there in 2010, 2011 and again in Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-3802012. During the second of his three consecutive wins, in 2011, he led teammate and eventual championship winner Casey Stoner and Yamaha gunner Jorge Lorenzo on a merry chase through the German countryside. Stoner appeared to have second place in the bag until Lorenzo slipped past him on Lap 30, punking him by a tenth. Stoner, having lost the battle, would win the war, taking the next three rounds, while Lorenzo crashed hard in practice at Philip Island, losing the tip of a finger in the accident, and ending his hopes for that year.

In 2012, Pedrosa again spent the afternoon with Stoner glued to his rear wheel. But, late on the last lap, the racing gods intervened, sending the Australian into a dramatic, long, agonizing lowside that looked like a slow-motion replay of itself. Suddenly, Pedrosa was home free, while a stunned Lorenzo moved up to second place, and an even more surprised Andrea Dovizioso waltzed onto a podium finish in third. It marked the first time in 22 starts that Stoner had failed to finish. Lorenzo, thus blessed, went on to claim the 2012 title, with no clue it might possibly be his last.

Last year, while both Lorenzo and Pedrosa sat out nursing broken wings, Marquez took the win by 1.6 seconds over a determined Cal Crutchlow, with Rossi another eight seconds back. Pedrosa had been leading the championship through Round 7, and 2013 appeared to finally be his year until he went flying over his handlebars on Saturday morning, landing hard, out of title contention once again. Marquez took the lead in the 2013 title race that day and never let go, despite a picky and unnecessary disqualification at Phillip Island that made the final standings appear closer than they actually were.

A Reversal of Fortune at Movistar Yamaha

Rossi & LorenzoHad you been living in a cave in Borneo for the past two weeks, and I told you that the factory Yamaha team had signed one of its riders for the next two seasons, would you have guessed that the rider in question was Valentino Rossi? That Yamaha would sign the aging legend, who will be 37 when this latest contract runs out, before doing a deal with Jorge Lorenzo? Furthermore, had I told you that a premier class rider admitted to the press after Assen that he was frightened by the wet conditions and was thus unable to compete for a podium, would you have guessed I was talking about Karel Abraham, or double world champion Jorge Lorenzo?

We have been suggesting here for some time that Marc Marquez has gotten inside Lorenzo’s head, where he is causing all kinds of problems for the Mallorcan, this last bit of candor being but the most recent. Now, it appears that Rossi, once again, is the alpha male in the factory Yamaha garage; shades of 2008 and 2009, years in which the immensely talented Lorenzo could not stand being #2 to his teammate, a situation that became so desperate the teams had to build a wall down the center of the garage to keep the two separated. Lorenzo found it difficult to be Rossi’s wingman before winning two titles; I doubt he will find it any easier now.

Six months ago I suspected Rossi was in his last contract with Yamaha, and that Lorenzo would be with them until 2020. Now, 180 degrees later, it appears Rossi will finish his career on The Big Blue Machine, while Lorenzo could conceivably go looking for greener—or redder, or turquoiser (?)—pastures. The domino effect engendered by Marc Marquez is, indeed, having some unforeseen consequences.

Your Weekend Forecast

Surprisingly, Weather.com is calling for clear skies and warm temperatures in Saxony this weekend. We had our share of cool and wet last time out in Assen, and can look forward to more of the same when we return to Silverstone at the end of August. Weather does not appear likely to be a factor for Round 9.

Which, in a way, is a shame. MotoGP needs something to shake up the status quo in what is becoming a dreadfully predictable season. Sure, a lot of us used to enjoy watching Michael Jordan lead the Bulls to title after title, but the Pippens and Rodmans helped make them possible. In an individual sport like MotoGP, utter domination by one rider is fun to watch if you happen to be a fan of that rider. Otherwise, you’re probably recording the races, checking for spoilers online, and cutting the grass, rather than watching Marc Marquez flash his boyish grin while he’s hoisted in the air by his team week after week after week, as if he had lost his virginity the night before.Marquez hoisted

The race goes off at 8 am Eastern time. We’ll have results and analysis right here on Sunday afternoon.

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MotoGP 2014 Le Mans Preview

May 13, 2014

All eyes on the streaking Marquez 

Repsol Honda #1 Marc Marquez sits atop the grand prix motorcycle racing world with expectations growing at a geometric rate.  Heading into Round 5, he has captured the last five poles, dating back to Valenciana last season, and has won every contest in 2014.  He has topped the timesheets in most of the practice sessions.  Aside from his boyish good looks, all he has going for him is timing, balance, reflexes, intelligence and a really good bike.  The only hope for the rest of the grid this weekend is rain and plenty of it. 

Luckily for the grid, the flying circus will be performing in France, where the last two races have been declared “wet.”  (When it’s heidi_klum_51raining pitchforks and hammer handles, having a marshal flashing a sign reading “WET RACE” is like watching Heidi Klum strut down a runway with some dweeb in the first row waving a sign reading “SUPERMODEL.”  Not exactly necessary.  Just sayin’.)

Recent History at Le Mans

The most recent dry race at the legendary Bugatti Circuit took place in 2011, when Repsol Honda chieftain Casey Stoner got away early on his way to a) the win, and b) that year’s championship.  Behind him, pandemonium reigned, as Marco Simoncelli put Stoner’s Honda teammate Dani Pedrosa out of the race and into the hospital with an ill-advised passing attempt on Lap 17.  Repsol #3 Andrea Dovizioso took advantage of Pedrosa’s misfortune to steal second place from Valentino Rossi, who put his Ducati Desmosedici on the podium for the first and only time that year.

In 2012, factory Yamaha stud Jorge Lorenzo ruled Le Mans in the rain, beating Rossi to the finish by 10 interminable seconds.  Rossi, in turn, punked Casey Stoner on the last lap, relegating the Australian, who had announced his surprise retirement that weekend, to third.  Afterwards, it was hard to tell whether Rossi was more jubilant over making it to the podium or sticking Stoner’s you-know-what in the dirt.

Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380Last year was Dani Pedrosa’s One Shining Moment, as the diminutive Spaniard, who had struggled all weekend and started out of the six hole, put the hammer down at the start and led the last 23 laps of the very wet race, launching himself into first place for the season.  Cal Crutchlow, in his final (competitive) year aboard the Tech 3 Yamaha, managed second place, despite having his entire body held together with Bondo and strapping tape.  Rookie Marquez made it to third place after a three day escapade during which he spent roughly as much time in the runoff areas as on the track.  The two factory Ducati bikes managed fourth and fifth, unable to shake the cursed “mudder” label.

Feast or Famine for Rossi at Le Mans

In his last six visits to the Loire River valley, Valentino Rossi has experienced the highs and lows of his chosen profession.  He followed up his win in 2008 with the comical flag-to-flag outing in 2009 in which he finished 16th.  In 2010 he finished second to Yamaha teammate Lorenzo, and podiumed in both 2011 and 2012 while wrestling the Ducati.  Last year, back again with Yamaha, he crashed out of third place in the middle of the race under pressure from Crutchlow and ended up finishing 12th.

Some years chicken; some years feathers.  After watching his teammate Lorenzo get overtaken late in the day in Jerez by Mr. Pedrosa, Rossi is probably looking forward to a little payback this weekend, especially with Dani coming in at less than 100% fitness.

Latest Honda Fad—Arm Pump Surgery 

Last week both Dani Pedrosa and LCR Honda strongman Stefan Bradl underwent surgery to repair muscles in their forearms that want to bust out of their casings like bratwursts on a hot grille.  Pedrosa, whom we weren’t aware was having any physical problems on his way to another solid third place finish in Jerez, might simply miss going under general anesthesia, as it’s been almost a year since his last collarbone surgery.

Bradl, it will be remembered, had problems in Jerez that indicated something was wrong; now we know what it was.  Although both riders have been cleared to race this weekend, Le Mans is one of those stop-and-go joints that demands a lot of hard braking.  Pedrosa will have his work cut out for him to keep his own personal string of eight consecutive podium finishes alive.

There is no truth to the rumor that Alvaro Bautista requested permission to have surgery on one of his forearms, in order to do a little bonding with the factory Honda riders who aren’t embarrassing themselves this season.  Bautista is not having arm pump issues, just every other issue imaginable.

This Just In—Cal Crutchlow Frustrated with DucatiCrutchlow

Last year, after four rounds, a fractious Cal “I’m Good Enough for a Factory Ride” Crutchlow sat in fourth place for the season with 55 points.  Later in the year, he achieved his goal of becoming a factory team rider, abandoning the Tech 3 Yamaha squad and hooking up with Ducati Corse to take on the badass Desmosedici.  Sure, the Big Red Machine was widely seen as a career buster.  Sure, even the Doctor was unable to get it to work right, suffering through two of the worst years of his life.  But, it was argued, Cal is big and burly and strong enough to bend the Ducati to his will.  He was going to show the world that it wasn’t just about the money.

Um, no.  Heading into Round 5, Cal sits mired in 16th place, a mere two points ahead of Karel Abraham, for God’s sake, with ten (10) championship points to show for his season thus far.  He’s now mouthing off in the media about the junk he’s being forced to ride.  He is the least productive of the four Ducati pilots, two of whom aren’t making “factory” money.  At this point, Cal needs to man up and start running with teammate Andrea Dovizioso, who podiumed in Austin and currently sits in fourth place for the year.  Having made his bed, the Brit needs to lie in it and STFU.  As they say back home, “Hard cheese, old boy.”

New Rubber Coming in 2016

Having grown weary of being the whipping boy for every rider from Valentino Rossi to Gabor Talmacsi since 2009, Bridgestone has announced that it will no longer be the sole supplier of tires to MotoGP after next season.  This leaves the field open for the other three candidates—Pirelli, Dunlop and Michelin—to step up to what is a thankless job.  Never mind all the data the company collects and then ostensibly uses to improve its retail lines.  Not a race goes by without some rider or 12 whining about grip, deterioration, etc.   From what little I’ve read on the subject, Michelin appears to have the inside track.  Similarly, there seems to be little debate that the change in tires will have a greater impact on the sport than the forthcoming changes in the ECUs.

What About the Weather in France This Weekend?

Glad you asked.  As of Tuesday afternoon, the forecast is surprisingly good, calling for fair skies and mild temps, with next to no chance of rain.  Personally, I’ll believe it when I see it.  If it turns out to be a dry race, I suspect there’ll be more Yamahas on the podium than Hondas.  If it’s wet, expect Andrea Dovizioso to find his way to the rostrum.  The race goes off at 8 am EDT on Sunday, and we hope to have results right here that afternoon, even though our favorite Motorcycle.com editor will likely be on his honeymoon.  Congratulations Dennis and Jackie.

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MotoGP 2014 Jerez Preview

April 29, 2014

“The Marquez Years” appear to have begun

In order to understand what we are currently witnessing in MotoGP, it is necessary to examine some semi-recent history in F-1 racing.  (You know, the four-wheel set.)  I am reluctant to do this, in that I believe contraptions with four wheels should be going 400 mph to match the terror of traveling 200 mph on two wheels, which F-1 most certainly does not.  But a short primer on F-1 between 2000 and 2004 will shed some light on what we may have to look forward to for the next few seasons. 

Between 2000 and 2004, known to fans as “The Schumacher Years,” German driver Michael Schumacher won five F-1 championships, dominating the competition like no driver before or since.  During the period, he started 85 races, finished 77 and won 48.  While this was going on, interest in F-1 and race attendance dropped significantly; ten years later, both have recovered, but needless to say this utter dominance was bad for the sport.  (It is interesting to note that it was a rule change concerning tires prior to the 2005 season that leveled the playing field, or at least pissed in Ferrari’s gas tank.  Otherwise, the procession could have gone on years longer.)

Meanwhile, over in MotoGP, between 2001 and 2005 Valentino Rossi was doing roughly the same thing—five championships, 83 starts, 78 finishes and 51 wins.  So why, then, when one Googles “The Rossi Years” does the top article in the search talk about the Ducati Desmosedici in 2011 and 2012?  I think it’s because, compared to F-1, MotoGP was a cute little boutique sport followed mainly by Europeans with next to no TV coverage outside of Italy and Spain.  The first race in North America wasn’t held until 2005 at Laguna Seca.  Compared to today, there was essentially no audience to lose.  But the marketing machine that Dorna has constructed over the past decade is at risk due to the phenomenon that is Marc Marquez.

A number of writers, myself included, have complained about Dorna chief Carmelo Ezpeleta’s constant tinkering with the rules, the upshot of which is that by 2016 all the bikes on the grid will be using the same electronic control software.  But perhaps we should be more circumspect in our criticism.  Rather than trying to simply make MotoGP less expensive, at which he seems to be failing, his plan may be to avoid The Marquez Years that could effectively bring the sport to its knees, financially.  Honda may bail on MotoGP, as they’ve been hinting, but MotoGP will likely continue to exist.  Rather than simply dumbing down MotoGP, Ezpeleta may, in fact, be saving it from itself.

Post-Argentine Excuse Fest

In case you missed it, the Grand Prix of Argentina resulted in Repsol Honda riders Marc Marquez and Dani Pedrosa and Yamaha stalwart Jorge Lorenzo claiming the podium, with Yamaha #2 Valentino Rossi, LCR Honda German Stefan Bradl and Pramac Ducati heartthrob Andrea Iannone capturing spots four through six.  Perusing the racing media on Monday, I made note of the blizzard of excuses offered by many of the top riders following their performances on Sunday:

  • Pedrosa suffered from a slow start and blamed himself, believing that his trademarked slingshot start from, say, 2010 might have given him the win, which is rubbish.
  • Lorenzo called Sunday’s third place finish the sweetest of his career, but blames the rules prohibiting in-season engine development for what will likely be his worst season since he was a rookie in 2008.  More rubbish.
  • Rossi claimed he would have beaten Lorenzo to the podium had he not been pushed wide by a late braking Bradl when they were busy slugging it out on Lap 5.  He had nothing to say concerning the other instances when he ran wide and lost time all by himself.
  • Bradl himself offered no excuses for finishing fifth, despite having returned from his Q2 crash with his brains scrambled, convinced he was Iron Man.
  • The Tech 3 Yamaha guys, Bradley Smith and Pol Espargaro, both complained that their YZR-M1s didn’t perform as well with a full fuel load as they did later in the day.  Not exactly a news flash there.
  • Andrea Dovizioso blamed his fall from second place to ninth on a shoddy front tire and reduced engine power which resulted from “losing some oil” early in the race.  As he vividly demonstrated on Saturday when he blew an engine to Kingdom Come, it could have been worse.
  • Andrea Iannone blamed HIS fall from third place to sixth on tire wear, which only happens to every rider in every class in every race.
  • Finally, Aleix Espargaro, after crashing out on Lap 2, was only able to recover to finish 15th due to a broken handlebar, proving that it’s always something when you don’t have Repsol or Movistar stamped on your leathers.

Jerez track

Wasn’t This Supposed to be a Jerez Preview? 

Right.  Back in 2011, Ducati pilot Valentino Rossi’s low-side on Lap 8 took Repsol Honda icon Casey Stoner out of a race he looked very capable of winning, leaving the door open for Lorenzo’s Yamaha.  2011 was the year that marked the low water mark of MotoGP, as only 17 riders started the race and but 12 finished.  Repsol Honda bridesmaid Dani Pedrosa took a lucky second after both Ben Spies and Colin Edwards “retired” late in the race, but trailed Lorenzo by 19 seconds.  Ten seconds farther back was the plucky Nicky Hayden, who earned his annual podium on the Ducati.

The Jerez round in 2012 was a barnburner, with Stoner edging Lorenzo by a second and Lorenzo, in turn, “pipping” Pedrosa at the flag by 4/10ths.  The wet conditions that hampered the Moto2 race gave way to sunny skies and a great win for Stoner in a year that ultimately belonged to Lorenzo.  2012, you will recall, was the year Stoner discovered he is lactose-intolerant.  Gag me.

Lorenzo - Marquez

Last year, late in the day, Pedrosa held a slight lead over rookie Marquez and Lorenzo, who were battling furiously for second place.  Neither was giving an inch, Spanish machismo firmly in place, until the last lap, as reported here:  “Finally, though, at, of all places, the Jorge Lorenzo corner, its namesake went a shade wide and Marquez, lizard brain firmly in control, dove inside.  As Lorenzo attempted to cut back, the two touched, with Lorenzo being forced wide into third place both for the day and the season.”  This marked the beginning of the Lorenzo-Marquez rivalry that continues today, with Marquez in command, and Lorenzo able to muster little more than brave smiles and repeated vows to, somehow, do better next time.

Jerez is a Honda track.  Is there anyone out there who doubts Marquez and Pedrosa will end the day 1 and 2?

What about the Weather Forecast?

Cristina-Capella3Spanish beautyRight again.  Weather.com calls for hot and sunny conditions for all three days, temps in the upper 80’s, and the crowd full of tall, tan, scantily-clad Andalusian beauties.  The Honda RC213V likes it hot, so check off another advantage for the Repsol team.  Can Jorge Lorenzo or Valentino Rossi pull a rabbit out of his hat?  Will Aleix Espargaro’s homecoming feature a podium parade?  The race goes off at 8 am EDT on Sunday, and we’ll have results, hi-rez photos and analysis right here later in the day.

 

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MotoGP Phillip Island 2013 Results

October 20, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  An edited version of this story, complete with hi-rez photos, can be found on Motorcycle.com.

Marquez DQ leaves Lorenzo still breathing 

Round 16 of the MotoGP 2013 world championship was all about the track.  The new racing surface, installed at the cost of millions, provided outstanding grip for the riders, but was chewing up tires at a stunning rate during the practice sessions leading up to the race.  Race Direction was putting out one-time rule changes as fast as they could print them.  The last of these ensnared Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquez, resulted in his disqualification, and left the title up for grabs for at least another week. 

Usually, the Australian Grand Prix is a 27 lap affair won by Casey Stoner.  With Stoner having retired after last season and the racing surface replaced in the interim, it looked like business as usual following last week’s tilt in Malaysia.  But once the practice sessions started at Phillip Island on Friday, Bridgestone, the official tire supplier of the premier class, realized it had a problem on its hands.  The riders were putting up great lap times, but the tires were disintegrating at an alarming rate.

After a series of meetings with Dorna officials, it was announced on Saturday morning that the race was being shortened to 26 laps, and that riders would have to make a mandatory pit stop to change bikes by the end of Lap 14.  Such an announcement had never been made in the history of the series.  But the trouble didn’t stop there.  After qualifications, and more discussions, it was announced that the race was being limited to 19 laps, and that riders would have to make a mandatory bike change by the end of Lap 9 and no later than the end of Lap 10.

Marc Marquez’ team apparently missed the email.  It was his team’s failure, not the rider’s, which led to mayhem, a black flag for the series leader, and at least another week before the 2013 title can be settled.

The teams were undoubtedly up late into the night devising their strategies for the race.  They would all be using two bikes, each with a soft front tire, half a tank of gas, and no worries about tire conservation.  After the pit stop, they would be re-entering the race on cold tires.  There were concerns about entering the track from pit lane with on-track bikes running around 200 kph at the entry point.

Enough about the Rules—What about the Race?

Big Three - AustraliaWith a front row of defending world champion and Yamaha strongman Jorge Lorenzo, series leader Marquez, and fading star Valentino Rossi, the race got off to a clean start.  Lorenzo stormed into the lead, followed closely by the Repsol duo of Marquez and Pedrosa, and a wild first lap featured contact between all three.  By the end of Lap 1, it was Lorenzo, Marquez and Pedrosa up front, with a second group comprised of Rossi, Tech 3 Yamaha rookie Bradley Smith, FUN&GO hazard Alvaro Bautista and Smith’s teammate Cal Crutchlow.  By Lap 5, Smith had dropped back, and Marquez appeared to be lining up Lorenzo for a potentially championship-clinching pass.

At this point, as the riders approached the start/finish line, the pitboards started putting up reminders about the number of laps remaining before the riders had to enter the pits and change bikes.  The riders were maintaining their respective positions, but by Lap 9 only 2/10ths of a second separated leader Lorenzo from Pedrosa in third place.  It soon became apparent that Team Yamaha was better prepared for what was to happen than was the Repsol Honda crew.

As Lap 9 ended, Pedrosa entered pit lane, changed bikes, and got caught speeding coming back onto the track, which would later force him to allow Marquez through and, at the end of the day, amount to nothing.  As Lap 10 was ending, the entire place expected to see Lorenzo and Marquez enter pit lane.  The veteran Lorenzo, with his experienced crew, veered left as expected, while Marquez unaccountably kept right on going.  The poor British race announcers, Gavin Emmett and Nick Harris, were suddenly on their feet shouting, prancing about, and speculating wildly as to the possible consequences of Marquez’ error.  A ride-through penalty?  More points on his license?  A back-of-the-grid start at Motegi?

As Marquez re-entered the track on what was now Lap 12, he veered into Lorenzo’s line, and Lorenzo gave him a good smack, knocking a piece of Marquez’ brake lever/cover flying, and allowing Pedrosa through.  The race, and the speculation, continued, with Marquez going through on Pedrosa on Lap 14.  Finally, on Lap 15, the dreaded black flag appeared, and #93 was done for the day.

In the end, Lorenzo won comfortably by 7 seconds over Pedrosa, while Rossi eventually vanquished both Bautista and Crutchlow for another tarnished podium.  Today’s top ten finishers looked like this:

Top Ten finishers 2013 Phillip Island.

The Big Picture

Not much has changed in the 2013 standings, despite the dramatic turn of events Down Under.  Lorenzo now trails Marquez by 18 points, and needs to thump the rookie pretty good at Motegi to have a puncher’s chance of repeating as world champion in Valenciana.  Dani Pedrosa’s fortunes hang by a thread, and are out of his control.  Trailing Marquez by 34 points and Lorenzo by 16, he needs a world of woe to befall both riders in Japan to have anything beyond a mathematical chance of winning his first premier class title in Spain next month.  In all likelihood his championship hopes will expire next week.

Although Jorge Lorenzo gets plenty of props, has a room full of trophies and a distinguished body of work to show for his MotoGP career, one of the things he doesn’t seem to get much credit for is his mental toughness.  At the start of today’s race, with Repsol Hondas banging into him right and left, he was giving as good as he got, conceding nothing.  When Marquez got in his way on Lap 12, he brushed him aside, as if he weren’t going well over 100 mph on two wheels.

In a race in which he had nothing to lose, Lorenzo put the hammer down, damned the torpedoes, and went for all the marbles.  When today looks hopeless and there’s no tomorrow, many of us will throw up our hands and surrender to the inevitable.

There’s no surrender in Jorge Lorenzo.

A Look Back at the 2013 Australian Grand Prix

The big loser today was, of course, the Phillip Island Circuit.  The track operators invested heavily in re-paving the entire course, and now have an un-rideable track on their hands.  In the big money world of MotoGP, no one wants fingers pointed at them, blaming them for conditions or circumstances that can have a material effect on the outcome of an entire season.  Such is the state of Phillip Island.

Perhaps the most picturesque circuit on the MotoGP calendar, attendance today was under 32,000—about what you get at an average Boston Red Sox game—and the operators are facing a massive “Now what?”  Re-pave the track again?  Sue the contractor (which is what we would do here in the U.S.)?

A weekend that started under brilliant sunshine produced a flawed race run under leaden skies and that ended, somewhat appropriately, in the rain.  Phillip Island, which should really be re-named Stoner Island, is, for now, the venue for Round 18 on the 2014 MotoGP calendar.  Unless the owners find a solution to avert another cluster that was today’s race, we may find ourselves back to an 18 round season next year.

phillip island

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Pedrosa wins at Sepang; Marquez extends lead

October 13, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  An edited version of this story, complete with non-bootlegged images, will appear on Motorcycle.com tonight or tomorrow. Until then, please enjoy the raw copy.

Repsol Hondas finish one-two in the Malaysian heat 

pedrosa_marquez

For factory Yamaha double world champion Jorge Lorenzo and the Repsol Honda duo of Dani Pedrosa and Marc Marquez, Sunday’s Malaysian Grand Prix was going to be a statement race.  Lorenzo’s intent, clear from the outset, was to beat rookie Marquez at any cost.  Pedrosa, the victim of plain bad luck at Aragon, looked determined to prove that he was still a force at the top of the MotoGP food chain.  And Marc Marquez, on his way to the 2013 title, wanted the world to know that his brain is bigger than his balls. 

How, you’re wondering, do I know these things to be true?  Pure deduction, based upon things that were said during the week, and the actions of the riders during the race.  At the Thursday press conference, Jorge Lorenzo went OFF, delivering a scathing critique of Marquez’ relentless risk taking and Race Direction’s lame season-long response thereto.  To paraphrase Lorenzo’s tongue-in-cheek outburst, he claimed that Marquez approaches MotoGP as if it were NASCAR, bumping and grinding his competitors every time out, with but three “penalty points” to show for his behavior.  Actually, three penalty points and a World Championship.  Lorenzo, it seems, is put out over how Race Direction has rewarded bad behavior on Marquez’ part with a trophy and a bit of toothless punishment.  Thankfully, he didn’t play the Marco Simoncelli card as an example of what can happen to the fast and the reckless.

Dani Pedrosa gave us one of his trademarked “slingshot” starts today, moving from fifth position on the grid to sitting on Lorenzo’s pipes in the middle of Lap 1.  He and Marquez had been fast all weekend in practice, but Pedrosa looked determined not simply to podium today, but to win.  On Lap 5, having just received a mapping change from his pit crew, he bumped Lorenzo out of his way—just racing!—and took over first place for the duration.  Never looking back, he won by almost three seconds, for the first time since Le Mans.  Two years ago, when he had this kind of pace, Pedrosa would win by 12 seconds, and would have felt great afterwards.

Two years ago he had no Marc Marquez to deal with.

Marquez, for his part, looked mainly interested in staying out of trouble today.  He seemed surprised at Lorenzo’s Thursday outburst, and tried to make light of it, before figuring out that Jorge was seriously furious with him.  Settling into third position at the start, he joined Pedrosa in slipping past Lorenzo on Lap 5.  The Yamaha icon was simply not having it today.  He came right back at the rookie and gave him a good bump on Lap 6, briefly moving back into second place.  The two went at each other tooth and fang through Lap 7, when Marquez went through for good, pushing Lorenzo out onto the candystripes exiting a late corner, and essentially sealing the 2013 championship in the process.

Having put Lorenzo away, you expected Marquez to go after Pedrosa in the hunt for another gratuitous win.  Instead, he appeared to lay back, content to simply manage the gap between himself and Lorenzo.  In addition to being his teammate, Dani Pedrosa is absolutely no threat to his title aspirations.  The mountain of criticism piled upon Marquez after Aragon, most of it undeserved, clearly had an effect on the young Spaniard.  Thus, he was able to emerge from today’s race with no further damage to his reputation, and with a bigger lead in the championship race than he had at the start of the day.  All in all, a good day’s work.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Valentino Rossi on Saturday enjoyed his best QP since 2010, starting from the second spot on the grid.  On Sunday, this advantage lasted all of 10 seconds, as both Lorenzo and Pedrosa blew by him on the way to the first turn.  Rossi spent the entire day—all 20 laps—in fourth place, and appeared to be hanging around, waiting for one of the leaders to fall, or run wide, something, anything, in the hope of securing yet another hollow podium.  I get it that Rossi is a marketing machine who makes cash registers ring for Yamaha, but his diminishing presence on the team means Lorenzo is getting double-teamed every week.  And as the standings show, the result is going to be another world championship for Honda.

With the bulk of the field strung out in a ghastly premier class procession, the only real contest of the day involved Tech 3 Yamaha Brit Cal Crutchlow and GO&FUN pilot Alvaro Bautista, who spent the day jousting over fifth place.  Crutchlow, with the slower bike and zero motivation, eventually succumbed to Bautista, losing out by a couple of tenths.  While LCR Honda’s Stefan Bradl missed today’s race due to a broken ankle suffered in FP4 on Saturday, Bautista moved past Bradl into sixth place for the season.

With two of the four Ducatis on the grid retiring with mechanical problems—Iannone with exhaust issues, Hayden with a blown engine—Yonny Hernandez made a respectable showing on his Pramac Ducati, finishing 10th after starting 16th.  Hector Barbera, riding for the Avintia Blusens team, weathered a ride-through penalty for jumping the start and still managed 14th place for the day.  Fellow jumpers Colin Edwards and Michael Laverty fared slightly worse, with Edwards coming home in 15th place and Laverty crashing out on Lap 13.

The Big Picture, Heading to Australia

The season has developed what feels like a grinding inevitability, as Valenciana draws closer and Marquez’ lead in the standings grows larger.  The rookie demonstrated today that he is not, in fact, compelled to try to win every single round, that he appreciates where he sits in the standings and what he must to do stay on top.  He showed a little respect (or was it pity?) for his teammate by laying off and not trying to out-race him yet again today, when there was nothing to be gained from such showboating but a few more haters.

Stoner testing

With Phillip Island looming, the Magic Numbers are now clearly in focus.  Lorenzo trails Marquez by 43 points; Pedrosa trails by 54.  Unless Pedrosa wins in Australia, he will be eliminated next week.  If Marquez wins and Lorenzo finishes third or worse, the fat lady will be singing “Advance Australia Fair” next Sunday afternoon.  The moment it was announced that Bradl would miss Round 16, rumors started circulating that Casey Stoner would return to try for a seventh (!) consecutive win at his home track, a rumor both Honda and Stoner currently deny.  But the alignment of the MotoGP stars and planets is such that Stoner’s appearance on the LCR Honda next weekend wouldn’t surprise, or disappoint, too many fans.  With three rounds left, there is precious little else to cheer for.

TOP TEN YTD AFTER SEPANG.

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MotoGP Silverstone 2013 Preview

August 27, 2013

by Bruce Allen

An edited version of this story, complete with hi-rez images, will post on Motorcycle.com on, like, Thursday.  Until then, enjoy the raw copy.

Can anyone, other than Marquez, stop Marquez? 

As Round 12 of the 2013 MotoGP season looms, it becomes easier and  easier to imagine the unimaginable—a rookie winning the premier class  title.  Repsol Honda phenom Marc Marquez continues to defy expectations  with the composure and confidence of a seasoned veteran.  Back in 1971,  French humanist Rene Dubos observed, “Trend is not destiny,” but this  Spanish rider may be the exception to the rule. 

Captain America - 2013Sportswriters and bloggers love to engage in hypotheticals—if this hadn’t  happened, if so-and-so were thus and such—and the conversation  surrounding Marquez is full of this gibberish.  If Lorenzo hadn’t crashed twice  in two weeks…If Pedrosa hadn’t fallen in Germany…If Marquez hadn’t crashed at Mugello… (this last one is my own work, sorry to say.)  But here we are, in the midst of a minor miracle.  Let’s take a short look back at how we’ve arrived at this point. 

The 2013 season had been running per expectations through Round 6 at Catalunya.  Repsol Honda star Dani Pedrosa and factory Yamaha #1 Jorge Lorenzo were slugging it out at the top, while Marquez was serving his apprenticeship, sitting in third place, with 5 podiums, a win, and a rookie crash out of the lead in Italy.  At that time he trailed Pedrosa by 23 and Lorenzo by 14.  Pretty much as expected.  However, at Assen, things changed.

Lorenzo crashed on Friday, had surgery, returned, and ran a gutty 5th on a day he probably should have been in the hospital.  Marquez finished second to Rossi, who gave us a fleeting glimpse of his classic form.  Pedrosa struggled to a 4th place finish.  Marquez picked up seven points on Pedrosa and nine on Lorenzo.

At the Sachsenring, the wheels came off, so to speak, for the two favorites, as both Pedrosa and Lorenzo crashed heavily in practice.  Both would miss the race, which Marquez won, the beginning of his current four race win streak.  That day, Marquez went from 23 down to Pedrosa to two up.  As MotoGP’s summer break approached, Lorenzo and Pedrosa entered rehab, and Marquez entered the ionosphere.

Winning at Laguna took his margin over Pedrosa to 16.  A third consecutive win at Indianapolis ran the lead to 22.  Sunday’s victory at Brno stretched it to 26.  As any rider who has won a championship will tell you, having a margin of more than 25 points over your closest challenger relieves a great deal of pressure.  It means that even in a perfect storm, one in which you go ragdoll and your rival wins, you will still be in the frame.  It provides a margin for error, a psychological pressure-relief valve.

Assume Marquez crashes out this week at Silverstone.  So what?  He will still be leading a series few expected him to win at the beginning of the season.  He will still have at least three very friendly tracks in his future—Sepang, Motegi and Valenciana.  Unless he gets hurt in a significant way he will still be in the mix.  His confidence is off the charts.  His rivals are spooked.  He will retain the inside track to the title.  And if he wins, or podiums, at Silverstone, well…

Marquez now enjoys not only the lead, but the freedom to relax and focus on the process of becoming a premier class champion, rather than individual outcomes.  At this point, the specific result of each round is less important than continuing up the learning curve, as he was doing early in the season.  He doesn’t need to run the table.  He can’t allow Pedrosa to finish 2013 the way he did 2012, with six wins in eight rounds.  But Pedrosa is still not 100% physically, and his spirit is wounded, too.  He is in an inferior position compared to this time last year.

With 8 rounds left in 2012, Pedrosa trailed Lorenzo by 23 points.  Even winning six of the last eight, he ultimately lost to the Mallorcan by 18.  At this point in 2013, both Pedrosa and Lorenzo are pressing, while Marquez is chilling.  It seems unlikely there will be a great deal of change at the top of the standings for the remainder of the season.  But a word of caution is in order.  At this point in 2011, it looked like Marco Simoncelli was going to be the next great MotoGP rider.  Trend, after all, is not destiny.

Recent History at Silverstone

The British Grand Prix moved from dowdy Donington Park to sleek Silverstone in 2010, with major renovations at the Northampton circuit continuing into 2011.  The 2010 race featured a master class victory by Jorge Lorenzo on the way to his first world championship that fall.

Repsol Honda pilot Andrea Dovizioso, who had won his first and only premier class race at the 2009 event, finished a gratifying second on his Repsol Honda, with then rookie Monster Tech 3 Yamaha pilot Ben Spies “pipping” compatriot Nicky Hayden at the flag for his first premier class podium.  2010 was the year Ducati flagbearer Casey Stoner qualified sixth and went through the first turn of Lap One in, like, last place, only to fight his way back to a 5th place finish at the flag, his teeth by then having been ground down to the gum line.

2011 was a head-scratcher, as Casey Stoner drove his Repsol Honda to a convincing rain-soaked win on his way to his second title that fall.  Once again, Dovizioso claimed second place for Honda and established himself as a “mudder.”  The surprise of the day involved American Colin Edwards, who had fractured his collarbone the previous week at Le Mans.  Riding the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha on a day he should have been resting in bed, the Texan managed his only podium of the year, likely the last of his career.

It should be noted that Edwards’ remarkable day took place with Pedrosa and homeboy Cal Crutchlow out with injuries, while Lorenzo, Spies and Simoncelli crashed out.  Another way of characterizing Edwards’ 2011 British GP would be to say he finished in front of nine riders.  (This year, that would put him somewhere around 15th place.)  The Texas Tornado would rightly insist that a podium finish is a podium finish.

The British Invasion

No, it’s not The Beatles, The Rolling Stones and the Kinks.  It’s Cal Crutchlow, Bradley Smith and Scott Redding, all furiously playing the “home race” card.  Crutchlow and Smith crashed out of the points last week at Brno, putting a bit of a damper on their prospects heading home for the weekend.  Redding, leading the Moto2 series and ticketed for MotoGP next year, struggled in the Czech Republic too, finishing eighth while teammate Mika Kallio won for the first time in his Moto2 career.  The stands are likely to be packed this weekend, and the weather forecast is surprisingly nice, with cool clear conditions forecast for all three days. 

All this homecoming stuff is, of course, a sideshow.  The main event will be amongst the heavyweights at the front.  For Jorge Lorenzo, as the Brits say, it’s win or bin.  On the Repsol Honda team, it will be High Anxiety vs. The Boy Wonder and his sidekick, Mo Mentum.  If you’re a betting person, you gotta go with the double-team.

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MotoGP Brno 2013 Results

August 25, 2013

By Bruce Allen

Marquez wins again, Aliens in shock 

Repsol Honda wonder Marc Marquez won today’s Czech Grand Prix by 3/10ths over teammate Dani Pedrosa, with Yamaha double champion Jorge Lorenzo another two seconds behind.  Once again making it look easy, Marquez now leads Pedrosa by 26 points and a disheartened Lorenzo by 44 with seven rounds left in the 2013 season.  Had the rookie not crashed out of the lead at Mugello back in June, this thing would be over already. 

Marquez is now smashing all time records every time out, a proverbial bull in the 65 year-old MotoGP china shop.  He became the first rookie ever to win at Laguna Seca in July.  Last week, ignoring the footnote, he became the first rider ever to win three rounds in the United States.  And today he became the first rider ever to win five races in his rookie season, having prevailed in the last four rounds.  The sky appears to be the limit for the young Spaniard, as he does not appear quite fast enough to enter a low earth orbit.

22 Masterful Laps

During the practice sessions leading up to qualifying, it was the usual suspects at the top of the timesheets, with Lorenzo, LCR Honda sophomore Stefan Bradl, Monster Tech 3 defector Cal Crutchlow and Marquez taking turns leading a session.  Q2, the main qualifying event, was a little weird, as most of the riders could only manage four laps over the long Brno circuit, and resulted in a front row of Crutchlow, GO&FUN loose cannon Alvaro Bautista and Marquez.  The second row featured Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Tech 3 rookie Bradley Smith, with Valentino Rossi, the now-former Alien, in seventh.

Once things got underway, Lorenzo got off to an impressively fast start, with Marquez and Pedrosa in hot pursuit.  Crutchlow started poorly, immediately back in fourth position, tangling with Bautista and Rossi most of his truncated day, his hopes of a maiden premier class win shattered in the first lap.  Adding injury to insult, the Brit, with seven races left until his self-imposed exile with Ducati for the next two years, crashed out on Lap 9 and eventually finished out of the points in 17th.  So much for sitting on the pole.

Lorenzo led the first group for most of the day, but was unable to get away, while the two Repsol Hondas were relaxing in his slipstream, biding their time, probing for signs of weakness.  Marquez feinted several times before going through for good in the final turn of Lap 16, a replay of what Pedrosa did to Lorenzo on the last lap in 2012.  Three laps later, Pedrosa himself went through on Lorenzo, hoping to overtake his thoroughly annoying rookie teammate in the last three laps.  It was not to be, as Pedrosa didn’t have enough left to mount the late charge he desperately needed.

Before the race, it was generally acknowledged that crunch time had arrived for Yamaha and Jorge Lorenzo, that another loss to either Repsol Honda at the flowing Brno circuit would spell ruin for the 2013 season.  Similarly, for Pedrosa and Lorenzo, allowing Marquez to work them again would be another sure sign of the career apocalypse looming before both.  The two veterans, masters of their craft, gave this race everything they had, but it wasn’t nearly enough.  To the casual observer, the all-Spanish podium would appear to spell joy for the three honorees.  In fact, for two of them, it spelled despair.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Once Crutchlow went walkabout on Lap 9 (joining teammate Bradley Smith in the Tech 3 DNF party) the battle for fourth place between Bautista and Rossi raged all day, a measure of how much Rossi’s game has slipped in the past few years.  While Rossi would eventually prevail, a hollow victory to be sure, he finished 10 seconds behind Marquez, which would have been unthinkable as recently as 2010.

At 200 mph, things can go downhill in a hurry.  In fact, it may not be much of an overstatement to suggest that Rossi is on his way to becoming Colin Edwards, the thoroughly faded Yamaha veteran, other than the fact that Rossi has 80 premier class wins to zero for Edwards.

Stefan Bradl spent a lonely day in 6th place, turning laps, finishing 10 seconds behind Bautista and 15 seconds ahead of the factory Ducati duo of Andrea Dovizioso and Nicky Hayden.  Dovi and Hayden, after their latest close encounter at Indianapolis, had been hauled in front of both Race Direction and Ducati brass over their tendency to trade paint with one another, and refrained from doing so today.

[Before the season started, a Ducati mouthpiece told the media the company expected the two to challenge for wins this season on the ever-changing Desmosedici, providing further evidence, as if more were needed, that the Bologna factory is hopelessly out of touch with reality.]

Andrea Iannone, onboard the Pramac Ducati, ended the day in 9th place, followed once again by Aleix Espargaro, the top finisher in the now non-operative CRT class.  The only other result of note was that of Michele Pirro, subbing for the now-finished Ben Spies, who managed a respectable 12th place finish.  Looks like Pirro will finish the season racing, rather than testing, for Ducati Corse.  Spies, who had surgery on both shoulders this past week, should now be spoken of only in the past tense when discussing MotoGP.

The Big Picture

The standings tell the story.  For Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo, their only remaining hope is that Marquez will crash out of a race or two, and it’s bad racing karma to wish such things for your rivals, especially a teammate.  Crutchlow’s gaffe today puts him 16 points behind Rossi in 5th place, but serves as valuable preparation for the next two years of his career.  After an outstanding weekend at Laguna Seca, of all places, Bradl has now settled back to earth and looks beatable by Dovizioso, assuming Dovi can resist further opportunities to mix things up with his teammate.

Top Ten after 11 rounds

On to Silverstone

Shakespeare’s “winter of our discontent” has now become Pedrosa and Lorenzo’s summer of nausea.  The nagging apprehension they likely felt toward Marquez heading into the season has now been replaced by fully-formed dread, as the Honda rookie has proven himself to be, as it were, truly re-Marc-able.  It is impossible to imagine that he will not destroy yet another all-time record next week, eclipsing Rossi’s rookie record of 10 podiums in a single season.

Since moving from Donington Park to Silverstone, Jorge Lorenzo has won the British GP twice, sandwiched around Stoner’s win in 2011.  As such, it would appear that this year’s tilt represents Lorenzo’s last gasping breath of hope for a third premier class championship in 2013.  Pedrosa has a lousy history at Silverstone, and his chances for anything more than a podium finish would appear dubious at best.  Crutchlow and Smith will be completely geeked up for what surely must be a disappointing homecoming weekend.  And Rossi will flash his trademarked smile all the way to the bank while trying to remain within an excuse or two of the podium.

Going forward, a number of interesting questions remain, most of them having to do with who will be riding what for whom in 2014.  The one I can’t get out of my head today has to do with what might have happened had Marquez been running against Casey Stoner on identical bikes this year.  Had it been Stoner and Marquez on the Repsol Hondas this season, the world might have seen some truly epic racing.  The late Robert F. Kennedy captured this sentiment perfectly when he said, “Some men see things as they are and say ‘why?’  I dream things that never were and say, ‘why not?’”

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