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Heading back to Spain, Marquez needs to focus

September 22, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Aragon Previiew

Bruce Allen  © Motorcycle.com

For Repsol Honda super soph Marc Marquez, who flirted with perfection for much of the season, there remain but three goals for the 2014 MotoGP season. First and foremost—win the title, which is pretty much a done deal. Second—stay out of the hospital, which is to say take no unnecessary risks in a sport which is, by its very nature, risky. Third and last—break Mick Doohan’s all-time record of 12 wins in a single season.

raineyrossi1vt

Wayne Rainey and Vali

You and I would probably reverse the first two, which is one reason we’re not out there competing for world championships in anything. I was once told that to be successful in advertising, one had to lack the ability to recognize life-threatening situations. This goes without saying in motorcycle racing, where the trajectory of one’s life can change in an instant. Thus all the wheelchairs one sees at AMA events. And while we are consistently hard on the so-called back markers in the premier class, it must be admitted that all are hugely talented and courageous beyond belief. The difference between The Aliens and the Michael Lavertys is on the order of three to four seconds per lap. All of which validates the second of my tired clichés this week—the difference between good and great, in anything, is about 2%.

Marquez swims across the lineMarquez, with a 70-some point lead over teammate Dani Pedrosa and Yamaha icon Valentino Rossi, can clinch the title at Phillip Island with a couple of top two finishes between now and then. Not a tall order at all for the uniquely gifted young Spaniard. With 11 wins under his belt already, it is hard to imagine he won’t at least tie Doohan. And, should he tie Doohan with, say, two or three rounds left on the schedule, I expect he will go for the record. Despite the fact that he experienced the most serious crash of his career at Sepang in 2011, it would be tempting to go for history in the Honda-friendly Malaysian heat.

Recent History at Aragon

Despite the fact that Motorland Aragon was only added to the MotoGP calendar in 2010 as an emergency replacement for the still-born Hungarian circuit, there have been some great performances there in the years since. The track itself is a gorgeous place. The stacked stone wall looks like something straight out of the Inquisition, while the giant electronic billboard at the other end provides a stunning contrast, from medieval to ultra-modern. Too bad it’s stuck out in the middle of nowhere, 150 miles west of Barcelona. Not as remote as the Rio Hondo circuit in Argentina, but not exactly convenient. To anywhere.

Back in 2011, Honda stalwart Casey Stoner, on his way to his second premier class title, arrived at Aragon leading defending champion and Yamaha #1 Jorge Lorenzo by 35 points. At the start, Stoner and teammate Pedrosa went off to play by themselves, leaving Lorenzo to fiddle around with the likes of Gresini Honda pilot Marco Simoncelli and Yamaha teammate Ben Spies, both of whom he ended up beating soundly. Stoner took the top step on the podium and essentially clinched to 2011 title that day, leaving Lorenzo time to start getting accustomed to being referred to as “former champion.”

In 2012, it was Dani’s Revenge, as Pedrosa, who trailed the incandescent Lorenzo by 38 points on the heels of his last-row-start-first-lap-crash Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380at Misano two weeks earlier, won comfortably. Lorenzo claimed second that day, playing it safe, while Monster Tech 3 climber Andrea Dovizioso pushed his satellite Yamaha to the limit all day on his way to a satisfying third place finish. Pedrosa epitomized the “win or bin” mentality so often spoken of in racing, generally by Brits, by winning six of his last eight races that year and crashing out of the other two. Despite piling up his highest career point total in 2012, Pedrosa would end the year 18 points behind Lorenzo, a bridesmaid once again.

Last year, rookie Marc Marquez, not having been informed that Aragon was a Yamaha-friendly layout, calmly went out, took Jorge Lorenzo’s best shot, and beat him by 1.3 seconds. Valentino Rossi, in his first year back on the factory Yamaha after the two year exile with Ducati, took a rather hollow third, some 12 seconds behind Lorenzo. Marquez’ 39 point lead over Lorenzo at the end of the day would prove insurmountable. Notwithstanding the chippy DQ he absorbed at Phillip Island three weeks later, he clinched his first premier class title with a strong second place finish at Valencia on the last day of the season.

The Bottom Line

Marquez has now proven himself mortal, with his off-the-podium finish at Brno and the super slo-mo crash last time out at Misano. He doesn’t need to be sensational to achieve his #1 remaining 2014 goal, just good. He mustn’t lose concentration as the season winds down, in order to achieve his #2 goal. And, he will have several opportunities to secure his #3 goal, and further cement his place in MotoGP history, during the remaining rounds. This week’s race would actually be a good place to take a crack at #12, as Aragon is not what they call a terribly “technical” layout. With two wins here in the last three tries, he can go for the pole, check the competition in the first few laps, and decide mid-race whether conditions warrant going for the win. Moreover, he need not worry too much about what Lorenzo does, as the “threat”, such as it is, resides in Pedrosa and Rossi.

Quick Hitters

308_p01_pirro_portrait

Michele Pirro

This is the time of year when Gresini Honda slacker Alvaro Bautista typically rises from the dead. Since joining the Italian team in 2012, he has accumulated the bulk of his points in the second half of the season, narrowly averting a rough dismissal each year. This year, the team is leaving him; say hello to the factory Aprilia team, Alvaro. Perhaps Michele Pirro will become your teammate. He can certainly ride the Ducati, which means he can ride anything…KTM has announced it will join the grid in 2017 and begin testing at the end of next season. Having six manufacturers will certainly be more interesting than having three, although it probably won’t have much to do with goings-on at the top of the food chain…No word yet on whether Nicky Hayden will actually return to the sluggish Aspar customer Honda this round, this year, or ever again…Eugene Laverty, in a Field of Dreams moment, announced he will join the premier class next season, but that he doesn’t actually know, just now, with whom. Staging the announcement before signing the contract is the moto equivalent of “build it and they will come.”… Can two Lavertys be any more exciting than the one that has already accumulated three points this year? Just sayin’…Weather.com says it will be sunny and in the 70’s in Alcaniz this weekend, but Weather.com doesn’t know squat.

The race goes off again this week at 8 am Eastern time. We’ll have results later on Sunday, as the editorial staff at Motorcycle.com will have sobered up and returned to their customary post-equinox stations by then.

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Marquez in control as Round 13 comes into view

September 10, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Misano Preview, by Bruce Allen

With Repsol Honda #1 Marc Marquez relentlessly closing in on the 2014 MotoGP championship, attention is gradually turning toward the 2015 grid, where confusion reigns. Players in this evolving Keystone Kops comedy include Scott Redding, Fausto Gresini, Mika Kallio, Aprilia, Honda and Marc van der Straten. Out on the horizon, teenagers Alex Marquez and Alex Rins are plotting their own invasion of the premier class in the not-too-distant future.

Marquez in Sepang 2013Let’s face it. The battle for the 2014 premier class title is over but for the huzzahs. Marquez enjoys an 89 point advantage over teammate Dani Pedrosa with six rounds left. He picked up 12 points winning at Silverstone, as Pedrosa could manage only a fourth place finish. From here, it looks like Marquez and factory Yamaha double world champion Jorge Lorenzo will slug it out until Marquez clinches, while Pedrosa and Lorenzo’s teammate Valentino Rossi appear consigned to battle over third place, Rossi currently trailing the diminutive Spaniard by 10 points. In any event, barring the remote possibility that Marquez lands himself in a hospital anytime soon, he will clinch at either Motegi or, at the latest, Phillip Island, leaving the remaining rounds of the 2014 season as an extended testing period for everyone.

Seriously, can 2015 come soon enough?

Keystone Kops Revisited

Fausto Gresini, owner/manager of the satellite GO&FUN Honda team, has two things everyone wants—a factory spec Honda RC213V and rider Scott ReddingScott Redding—and two things no one wants—a customer Honda RCV100R and rider Alvaro Bautista. He also has a financial problem, in that his main sponsor, Italian energy drink company GO&FUN, has had enough of bankrolling a hugely expensive and largely unsuccessful MotoGP team and will not be back next year. Thus, Redding’s expected graduation to the RC213V is suddenly in jeopardy, to the extent that Gresini is allegedly negotiating with Aprilia to run its seriously underfunded factory team in 2015. Where Redding and the factory Honda end up is, at this point, anyone’s guess. Where Bautista and the customer Honda end up, no one really cares.

Enter Marc van der Straten, owner/manager of the wildly successful Marc VDS Moto2 team, currently featuring campaign leaders Tito Rabat and Mika Kallio. Van der Straten is trying to round up the financing to field a Honda MotoGP team that would, ostensibly, feature Redding (who rode for him in Moto2 until this season) on the factory Honda. All this, while simultaneously maintaining his deluxe Moto2 team in 2015, with Rabat and Marc Marquez’s little brother Alex signed and the hard luck Kallio kicked to the curb.

Mika KallioKallio, who trails Rabat by a mere 17 points heading into Misano, must be one highly motivated Finn. Imagine contending for a world championship and having your ride commandeered by the—literally—second coming of Marc Marquez. Kallio’s options for 2015 appear terribly limited, as most of the competitive seats in MotoGP are already spoken for, while the Moto2 teams have to submit their proposed rider lists to Dorna by the Aragon round at the end of the month. In my mom’s words, Mika is between the devil and the deep blue sea, while deserving far better.

Should Kallio end up on the Pramac Ducati—where he previ
ously served a two year sentence in 2009-2010—he will be making the best of a bad situation and placing his racing future in the promising hands of Gigi D’alligna. “Promising,” in this instance, does not mean full of potential. It means D’alligna has made a lot of promises to a lot of people, most of whom will be at least mildly surprised if he is able to field a competitive set of bikes in 2015. Especially at Pramac, the ‘Second Hand Rose’ of team Ducati.

alex-rins-alex-marquezNote: Do not lose sight of one Alex Rins, who will be joining the Pons Moto2 racing team next season. I read an article several years ago which suggested that Alex Marquez is faster than big brother Marc, and Rins faster than little brother Alex. Spain’s economy may be in the toilet, but they continue to churn out impossibly fast motorcycle racers.

Recent History at Misano

The little jewel of a racetrack, sparkling on the shores of the Italian Riviera Adriatico, with the Alps and the ghost of Marco Simoncelli looming in the background, has been Jorge Lorenzo’s personal playground for most of the past six years. He has won here each of the last three years, preceded by three narrow second place finishes, losing to Rossi in 2008 and 2009 and Pedrosa in 2010.

In 2012, pandemonium reigned at the start of the race, initiated by a stalled Karel Abraham, and necessitating a rare yellow-flagged restart. Dani Pedrosa, who entered the weekend trailing Lorenzo by a mere 13 points, became the victim of a jammed tire warmer as the restart approached, and was forced to start from the last spot on the grid. In his haste to return to the front, he got involved with Hectic Hector Barbera and his Pramac Ducati, crashing out of the race and the 2012 world championship chase in one appalling first lap moment. Lorenzo was joined on the podium that year by then-Ducati icon Valentino Rossi and, of all people, Alvaro Bautista, who somehow managed to beat Andrea Dovizioso’s Tech 3 Yamaha to the finish line by 3/1000ths of a second. Ohi!

Last year, Marc Marquez arrived in San Marino leading teammate Dani Pedrosa by 30 points and Lorenzo by 39. Lorenzo gave us one of his patented machine-like performances, taking the lead early, putting his head down, and recording 27 smooth, fast laps, with Marquez unable to get any closer than 3 seconds once he went through on Pedrosa on Lap 18. At the end of the day Marquez had lost the race but won the war, increasing his lead to 34 points with but five rounds left in the season.

Current Events

While Dorna boss Carmelo Ezpeleta waits impatiently for the construction of a new track in Wales, the eventual home of the British Grand Prix, Donington Park has stepped in to fill the breach created by the financial woes apparent at Silverstone. Donington has secured the 2015 race and may host again in 2016, as construction delays brought about by the customary 350 days of rain per year in Wales could easily forestall its debut until 2017. In Wales, it’s said, you can find 40 different shades of green, 37 of which are molds and mildew. Why Dorna wants to stage a race in this odd little country—quick, someone name the capital—is well beyond me.

The last American standing in grand prix motorcycle racing, Nicky Hayden, is being held out of this week’s tilt as his surgically-repaired right wrist continues to heal. The day is not too far off when there will be no (0) Americans riding in this sport, which cannot be good for Dorna’s efforts to market the product in the U.S. With Josh Herrin recently having lost his Moto3 ride and Colin Edwards getting shown the door by his former NGM Forward Racing team, the manufacturers are going to have to find another way to promote their machines in the biggest retail market on earth; as a theme, success in grand prix racing is not going to work. There is no truth to the rumor that Ducati is planning a Buy One Diavel, Get One Free campaign for all of 2015.

This weekend marks Marc Marquez’s—that’s called alliteration–first attempt to tie Mick Doohan’s 1997 record of 12 wins in a single season. Waiting here in Indiana for the tornados to drop from the sky and whisk me away to Points Unknown, I’m inclined to place my imaginary wager on Jorge Lorenzo this week. He gave Marquez all he wanted last time out; with no chance left to run the table, and plenty of easy rounds left to eclipse Doohan, this might be one the defending champion will be willing to let get away.

Again this week, the race goes off at 8 am Eastern time. Our report on the race results may be slightly delayed, as the editorial staff in Toronto has already started its annual Two Weeks of Boozing in gleeful anticipation of the autumnal equinox.

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Marquez streak squelched by Pedrosa’s first win in 10 months

August 17, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Brno Results, by Bruce Allen

Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380Most of the 131,800 fanatics who attended Sunday’s Czech Grand Prix at Brno–hoping to boast to their grandkids that they were there the day Repsol Honda icon Marc Marquez broke the record for consecutive wins to start a season–were reduced, at best, to bragging they were at the race Marquez lost in 2014, when he went 17 for 18 on the way to his second premier class title in two seasons. With Yamaha studs Jorge Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi joining winner Dani Pedrosa on the podium, it was just like the good old days, before the annoying Marquez came along, in 2012, when the three of them used to win everything.

Dani Pedrosa’s last premier class win came at Sepang in September of 2013. He has had a strong history at Brno, but in the pre-race chatter one kept hearing about and considering Yamaha bruise brothers Jorge Lorenzo and continuing marvel Valentino Rossi, who reduced his own chances of winning on Sunday by crashing out unassisted in FP4 and damaging his left pinky, a bad place to get hurt in his profession, despite the fastest time on the FP4 grid. Could the factory Yamahas and Ducatis push the gifted and impudent young Honda rider hard enough early in the race to implement the “anyone but Marquez” strategy that had silently emerged at the top of the grid since April?

The notion that Brno is a Yamaha-friendly track appeared to have been blown up in qualifying on Saturday with the emergence of the Ducati contingent in spots two and three, leaving Yamaha prototypes in 4th, 6th. 7th and 9th positions. Ducati Corse now has the Desmosidici working, if one will forgive yet another golf analogy, tee to green, but must continue to work on its short game. The Ducati is capable of laying down a single hot lap in qualifying but unable to keep pace at race distance due primarily to tire wear. Thus, the dueling Andreas, Dovizioso and Iannone, found themselves qualifying in the front row along polesitter Marquez, but did not figure to be around come podium time. Not this year. Driving for show, putting for dough as it were.

One of the topics we explore periodically is that of “team orders”, which we swear don’t exist in this class of the profession. Yet, it is easy to envision this imaginary private conversation between Livio Suppo, HRC Director of Racing, and Dani Pedrosa after the last team meeting of the day on Sunday morning:
Livio SuppoLS:”Dani, as a seasoned pro and teammate you know that the streak young Marquez is on is remarkable. I know you and I both support him continuing the streak as long as possible.”
DP:”Yes, sir.”
LS: “That the streak can end, but it can’t be you that ends it?”
DP:”Yes, sir.”
LS: “So then I can assure our masters in Japan that you will not keep Marquez from his place in the record books, and that, as an effective wingman, you will help, if necessary, fight off Lorenzo and Rossi so as to keep that record intact? Knowing I may have to commit ritual suicide if anything else at all were to happen?”
DP: “Yes, sir.”
LS: “Good. Thank you. Good luck this afternoon.”

As most of you know, it was Pedrosa, indeed, who ran off with the 2014 Czech Grand Prix, stalked by a determined Jorge Lorenzo and the hurt-not-injured Vale Rossi, with Marquez running a puzzling fourth. A recently re-signed Pedrosa telling Honda Racing that they have, indeed, not just one rider capable of winning races but two. A determined pro at the top of his own game, constantly kept from a premier class title by a cabal of legends owning MotoGP during his career. A rider who will not, at this stage in his career, take team orders. Pedrosa appears to have learned how to say “yes” and mean “no” from his own masters, who are legendarily good at it.

The premier class version of top-to-bottom competition typically devolves into a collection of little races-within-a-race for a variety of finishing positions. So it was early today as Pedrosa and Lorenzo engaged up front, dogged by Rossi and Marquez. Andrea Iannone gladly took on the odious task of getting in Marquez’s grill early in the day, the result being that the two bikes touched twice on Lap 5. While Pedrosa and Lorenzo went off to do their business, Valentino Rossi hung around to keep Marquez humble, and it worked.

At the end it included the Ducatis beneath Dovizioso and Iannone tangling for fifth place, Iannone prevailing. LCR ex-pat Stefan Bradl finished a ho-hum seventh. NGM Forward Racing’s Aleix Espargaro, big brother, claimed eighth in front of the recently re-signed and relaxed Bradley Smith, who qualified in 4th place but could only manage 9th at the finish on the Tech 3 Yamaha. Note to Smith: The one year contract means you were the default accomplice to rising star (and today’s crasher) Pol Espargaro. They hope to replace you next season.

The Big Picture Doesn’t Change

Marc Marquez today fell from legendary to simply dominating, his winning streak besmirched, his temporary invincibility finally dismissed, without the expected fight for the winning shot. In the beginning of the race there was too much bunch with the field, and he fell from the pole to something like sixth place. Both Pedrosa and Lorenzo got up to speed early, while Marquez would have to fight his way past Dovizioso, Iannone and Valentino Rossi if he were going to at least podium in a contest that seemed, somehow, to get away from him early, without some unforgettable and memorable attempt to capture the lead, an effort that had appeared in numerous contests over a year and a half. No sign of it today.

2014 Brno MotoGP Top Ten

Elsewhere in MotoGP

Our suspicion concerning the “customer Hondas” at Gresini, Aspar and Cardion AB has been confirmed, with the announcement that the 2015 Open Honda teams would be getting upgraded to this year’s RC213V engine, complete with pneumatic valves. A radical increase in power for a bunch of riders who know how to ride but haven’t had a fair chance to compete owing to a lack of top end speed. With this issue now resolved for 2015, the top ten scrum should include several more competitive bikes, i.e. Aspar’s Nicky Hayden (2015 Customer Honda), Gresini’s Scott Redding (2015 factory RCV), LCR Honda’s Cal Crutchlow (2015 factory RCV), the second Gresini bike (2015 Customer Honda) and a second LCR bike (2015 Customer Honda) currently on offer to Jack Miller in a rumored jump/shift from his KTM Moto3 team to the premier class.

What would it take to tighten the 2015 field like the one we see in Moto3, where eight bikes often fight in the front group? As we’ve seen, the Yamaha Open class bikes (factory rides equipped with last year’s engine) themselves appear to be 98% competitive with the factory entries; the teams just have to struggle with the financial side of the equation. If Honda hits 98% next year in its customer bikes, the grid will tighten considerably. If Dalligna’s 2015 Ducati improves its short game, it’s handling in the turns and tire consumption…Ducati logo

If Suzuki emerges from its lengthy layoff with a two rider team competitive with the Alien forces…If Aprilia, as rumored, moves its unofficial 2016 graduation to the premier class forward to 2015 rather than the Michelin tire change year, with some kind of low budget program sufficient to not lose face, and finds a rider or two—I’m thinking here of a Hector Barbara–willing to sacrifice body and soul to help get a program competitive, beginning next season… How does the grid not expand to 25 or 26 entries?

Nor do I know why it shouldn’t, other than some obscure language written into a contract with the tire supplier. One hears that the Paul Byrd Motorsports team will withdraw from MotoGP to form a new two-bike team in World Super Bikes, and the Ioda Racing team, being held together with clarinet reeds and duct tape, could go the way of all things next year. Certainly Danilo Petrucci plans to do better in 2015.

Farther Down the Food Chain

It appears to be a very good year to be any kind of Moto rider these days, as guys like John Rea and Eugene Laverty are being flown in to interview for assorted Open class and minor factory rides. Most of the bottom third of the grid appears to be in conversation with these teams, suggesting a number of the “slower” riders—Broc Parkes, Michael Laverty and Petrucci among them–will continue to have seats in 2015.

That teams like Avintia and Ioda Racing can financially continue to mount any kind of meaningful 2014 campaign is a miracle of marketing for those suits selling the sponsorship “opportunities”. Think of standing under a cold shower, tearing up hundred dollar bills, or grinding them in a food processor with some water; sponsoring a back bench MotoGP team must be like that. Lots of outlay, not much in return. Expensive parties at the tracks to celebrate a team’s top finisher in 16th place. Stuff like that. Tepid applause. Big bills.

Avintia has announced its intention to replace its current two entry Kawasaki power plants with the new and improved Honda power plant available in the 2015 customer bikes. As my dad used to say, “It should live so long.”

Looking Ahead

Let’s see what happens at Silverstone, San Marino and Aragon, where Marquez and Lorenzo dueled all last year. Let’s see whether Marc Marquez continues to push at the front, or whether he somehow decides to sit back and play defense from here on in. With a 77 point lead and seven rounds now left, playing it safe could be the smart way out.

With Marquez, one expects to see levels of effort and accomplishment characteristically higher during the next several rounds. Wins or meaningful challenges for the top step. That his teammate prevailed today is one of those facts he must appear, by contract, to be happy about which, in the absence of his professional ownership by others, he would quietly loathe and despise coming from a teammate on the back side of his own career. The presence of the two Yamahas was undoubtedly less objectionable. The obstructionism of the Ducatis was expected. The only change in the year-to-date standings had older brother Aleix jumping over crashed-out brother Pol Espargaro in the battle for sixth place.

Marquez is nothing but a well-coached young gentleman. He will have nothing but good things to say about Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Rossi, and that is one reason HRC loves this guy. He will promise to do his best at Silverstone, which must give the other riders cold chills. He is on his way to a remarkable career.

20145 World Champ Top Ten after Round 11

Silverstone’s likely last MotoGP appearance on the calendar comes up in two weeks. Starting in 2016 the British Grand Prix will be held in Wales, at a remote town no one can pronounce, at a location offering, if possible, worse weather conditions than the recently refurbished British track near Bletchley Park, the capital of the Allied decoding efforts against the Germans in WWII. New tires, new affiliations, new rivalries will exist in 2016. The British GP will have to be run somewhere in 2015; meanwhile, the last British GP as we’ve know them takes off in two weeks. We’ll be there.

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For Marc Marquez, 10 down, eight to go

August 12, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Brno Preview, by Bruce Allen 

An idea that was once viewed as preposterous is now causing some MotoGP fans to become bored.  The notion that one rider could sweep an entire 18 race season, in the midst of Aliens, bad weather, reckless competitors, a bunch of ticky-tacky rules, and plain old bad luck, has been widely dismissed for the last 40 years, since the ancient days of Giacomo Agostini.  And yet here we are, on the cusp of one of the most amazing feats in motorsports history. 

DiMaggio460_1690402cThe athletic world, in general, recognizes greatness but worships consistency.  In the major sports, the MLB record least likely to ever fall is Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak in 1941.  The despicable New York Yankees won five straight World Series titles between 1949 and 1953.  Between 1966 and 1974, the UCLA Bruins men’s basketball team won 88 games in a row, as well as seven consecutive national titles. Bill Walton 1972 And in high school sports, the Carmel, Indiana girls swim team holds the U.S. national record for all-time consecutive state championships with 28 in a row, beginning in 1986.  The girls who won it last year weren’t even born when the streak started.  This is the stuff of which legends are made.

Several years ago the Indianapolis Colts, at 14-0, had a shot at an undefeated season—the first since Miami in 1971-72—and kicked it away by resting their starters before the playoffs, in which they eventually lost before ever getting to the Super Bowl.  Colts management was viewed locally as idiots, giving up a chance to do something that had only ever been done once in favor of trying, and failing, to do something that had been done over 40 times; a number of fans, including yours truly, are still a little ticked off over that one.

AgostiniIn MotoGP, the three year period between 1968 and 1970 saw the legendary Giacomo Agostini go undefeated in every 500cc race he started, although he sat out a few rounds, for whatever reason.  In 1968, though, it was a 10 race season.  Throughout the period, Agostini’s MV Augusta enjoyed something like a 30 HP advantage over his nearest competitors, so the playing field wasn’t exactly level.

The same cannot be said about Repsol Honda pilot Marc Marquez in 2014.  With eight rounds left in the 2014 season, one would have to say the odds are still against him.  But they’re getting shorter every week.  Of the remaining circuits, only Brno and Phillip Island offer Yamaha a distinct advantage, the others being largely neutral or Honda-centric.  Clearly, the only rider capable of beating Marquez is Marquez himself, through a bad decision or just plain carelessness.  Of the two, at this point a bad decision—being overly aggressive in a turn, or somehow selecting the wrong tires—is more likely than a loss of concentration.

Marquez figures to clinch the title sometime around Aragon.  It will be interesting to see if he backs off even a smidge thereafter.  In this corner, we think he will go for greatness.  And, if he should accomplish the implausible this year, you get the sense he will aim for the impossible—a repeat performance—in 2015, before the global tire change takes place in 2016.

It could happen.  And whether he pulls it off or not, his legacy is already cast.  In Joni Mitchell’s words, he is “as constant as the North Star.”

Recent History at Brno

In 2012, Repsol Honda mighty mite Dani Pedrosa went one-on-four with the prototype Yamahas and came away the winner, “pipping” eventual world champion Jorge Lorenzo in the last two turns.  Cal Crutchlow, on the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha, enjoyed the first of four Tech 3 podiums with a surly third place finish, 12 seconds off the pace.  Other than the Lorenzo/Pedrosa tussle, there wasn’t much to cheer about at Brno in 2012.

Last year, there was plenty going on at Karel Abraham Sr.’s playground.  Lorenzo spent the day towing Marquez and Pedrosa around the track while the two Repsol riders kept their powder dry and waited for their fuel loads to drop.  Without so much as a “by your leave,” Marquez flew past Lorenzo on Lap 16, followed three laps later by Pedrosa, and that was that for Lorenzo’s last remaining thoughts of repeating as world champion.  Farther back in the pack, Valentino Rossi, returning on the factory Yamaha, schooled Gresini Honda’s Alvaro Bautista on the last lap to secure fourth place.  Factory Ducati stud Andrea Dovizioso did much the same thing to teammate Nicky Hayden to finish seventh.  Aleix Espargaro did Colin Edwards, Danilo Petrucci did Hiro Aoyama and so on, all the way down to 19th place, where Karel Abraham, getting plenty of love from his homeys, punked Bryan Staring by 3/10ths. Something for every taste and budget, as it were.

An Apology, of Sorts Espargaro and Smith

I don’t know who writes a lot of this stuff, but their work leaves plenty to be desired.  Sunday’s Indianapolis results article, for example, completely ignored the heroic efforts of the Tech 3 Yamaha duo of Pol Espargaro and Bradley Smith.  The pair finished the day fifth and sixth, respectively, after each suffered grievous bodily harm during practice.  Smith had another impressive high side that “re-opened” his left pinky, whatever that means.  And Espargaro, during a huge moment in FP4, jammed his left boot into the asphalt, flew up in the air without losing his grip on the handlebars, and came down hard on his, um, package.  He joked with the announcers afterwards that he would be singing with the castralto section in the MotoGP choir practice that evening, sounding during the interview like Tiny Tim on helium.  One assumes he was wearing a cup during the race. PolEspargaroCapture

Your Weekend Weather Forecast 

You would think that by now I would have learned to stay away from predictions, but I was an econ major in college and old habits die hard.  Two predictions I’m pretty confident about, though—Leon Camier will substitute again for Nicky Hayden on the Aspar Honda, and Alex de Angelis will spend some time on Colin Edwards’ Forward Racing FTR/Yamaha.  He will probably spend some time off the bike as well, if you catch my meaning.

The weekend weather forecast for the metropolitan Brno area is a little sketchy, with temps expected to be in the low- to mid-70’s and little chance of rain.  As for the race itself, one would need his head examined to suggest that Marquez will not win on Sunday.  All three of the other Aliens have enjoyed substantial success at Brno.  Personally, I believe we’ll see pretty much the exact same top four in Brno as we saw last week in Indianapolis.  Of course, as they like to say around here, some people believe chickens have lips.

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Marquez rolls on; Lorenzo places, Rossi shows

August 10, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Indianapolis Results, by Bruce Allen 

If you had watched only the first six laps of today’s Indianapolis Grand Prix, you might think the Marquez magic had ended back in July.  It was an absolute dogfight, with Italians on Yamahas and Ducatis holding the upper hand, or hands.  Ultimately, though, as the day wore on, the natural order of things in the premier class was restored, and Marc Marquez secured his 10th win in 10 tries in 2014. 

One thing at the Brickyard has definitely changed, and for the better.  The reconfiguration of the infield section of the track and the new racing surface therein has switched Indy from a “Honda track” to “Yamaha track.”  Compared to past years, there is much more flow, and less stop/start, such that Marquez’ qualifying time on Saturday fell by more than six seconds from last year, though the circuit is barely 50 meters shorter than it had been.  Further proof is evidenced by the fact that all four Yamaha prototype bikes finished in the top six today, with a double podium to boot.  And if the IMS folks were to just throw up their hands and run the GP on the 2½ mile oval, it’s possible one of the factory Yamahas could actually beat Marquez’ Repsol Honda.

Otherwise, as they say in New Jersey, fuggedaboudit.

DoviziosoCapture

Italians Fast While they Last

Polesitter Marquez enjoyed a rather leisurely start to the race, slipping from first to fourth or fifth in the first few turns.  As the leaders de-bunched, it was Rossi leading the Ducatis of Andrea Dovizioso and Andrea Iannone, with Marquez, Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo a bit farther back.  Lap 1 also saw Yonny Hernandez on the Pramac Ducati and Alvaro Bautista on the Gresini Honda get tangled up and out of the race.  Though it was never shown on the broadcast, I’m willing to believe that it was Bautista who tagged Hernandez, especially after watching the Spaniard go all ragdoll in a spectacular FP4 highside on Saturday.

BautistaCaptureBautista2Capture

 

 

 

 

 

Though it would be unfair to argue that the Ducati contingent has not shown noticeable progress this year under the hand of Gigi D’alligna, there are still plenty of issues to be sorted out at Ducati Corse.  The first is that they devour tires; the modified Open option they somehow cajoled from Dorna has its downside.  Thus, they are often very quick early, but can also be counted on to fade later in the day, unless racing in the snow at Assen.  Dovizioso started the day challenging for the lead and ended it 21 seconds behind Marquez.  Secondly, they have this annoying tendency to just stop running, leaving riders (in today’s case Iannone) leaning casually against a wall a mile from the pit area wanting to punch someone in the throat.  Cal Crutchlow has enjoyed this experience more than once this year, and it needs to stop.  One basically never (never) sees this from the Hondas and Yamahas.

As for the King of the Italians, Valentino Rossi looked frisky and fast leading the first five laps, until he and Dovizioso touched on Lap 6, running them both wide and allowing Marquez to sneak from third place into first.  Lorenzo, running at the absolute limit all day, went through on Dovizioso into third place.  And although Rossi would go through on Marquez again briefly on Lap 8, by Lap 12 Marquez was running in clean air with Lorenzo in hot pursuit.  Rossi spent the last 15 laps making sure Dani Pedrosa, who had both qualified and selected his race tires poorly, didn’t snake him for the last podium spot, spoiling, in the process, my prediction for the podium result today.  What’s up, Dani?

Elsewhere on the Grid

As we often see in the midst of the so-called silly season, riders whose fortunes are changing, or whose fortunes have been changed for them, often approach their final days with their current teams in different fashions.  Today’s examples, class, are Cal Crutchlow, Stefan Bradl and Scott Redding.

crutchlow

Wait. What? No, I’m with LCR Honda.

Crutchlow, who forced Ducati management to pay him to leave town, is understandably less committed to absorbing bodily injury than he was when it appeared he would be wearing red for another year.  His practice sessions were undistinguished, and it was only a single fast lap at the end of Q1 that got him into Q2, where he promptly finished 12th and last.  The only reason he managed a respectable eighth place finish today was that four of the riders who usually beat him like a drum—Iannone, Aleix Espargaro, Stefan Bradl and Alvaro Bautista—retired from the scrum.  Cal probably didn’t even need to shower after today’s race, just got dressed and headed for the plane and another half-assed effort next week.

Bradl is showing much of the same lack of competitive spirit.  He qualified a rousing 10th despite a white-hot lap in FP3, and was loafing in 9th place on Lap 12 when he completely lost focus and rammed the back of Aleix Espargaro’s Forward Racing Yamaha, taking himself out of the race and leaving the Spaniard well out in the runoff area with an annoying insurance claim to deal with.

Compare these two to rookie Scott Redding, who has been stuck all year paying dues on a very slow customer Honda on the Gresini team.  Redding, who by now must know he is inheriting Bautista’s factory spec prototype next season, attacked Q1, moved through to Q2 where he spanked Crutchlow, and rode his ass off today, eventually finishing 7/10ths of a second behind his countryman, whose factory Ducati can go roughly twice as fast as his own Honda plodder.  Redding showed character, fire and determination, and Fausto Gresini is going to love this guy on a real motorcycle starting next year.  If it were me, I would put him on the RC213V next week, but that’s just me.

Farther Down the Food Chain

There was joy in the Paul Byrd Motorsports (a bit of an overstatement, in my opinion) garage today as both Broc Parkes AND Michael Laverty scored championship points.  On the same day!  Leaving the team with a grand total of nine (9) points for the year.  What a pleasure it will be next year watching a new factory Suzuki outfit rather than this operation.

Homeboy Colin Edwards, in his final appearance in a MotoGP race on American soil, managed to score a coupla points, which was nice.  What was touching was watching him and his wife together during the national anthem, both visibly moved by the moment.  Edwards has announced his intention to race at Silverstone and Valencia before calling it a career.  Journeyman Alex de Angelis will be taking his place at the remaining events, which is always good for a laugh.

Next Week:  Brno

After sitting around for a month, MotoGP goes for three races in four weeks, with next week’s tilt at the financially desperate Brno circuit in the Czech Republic.  This will likely be the last visit to Brno for the foreseeable future, which the Yamaha contingent, at least, will regret, as it is one of the tracks in the Yamaha column on the calendar.  Marquez will have the chance to break another all-time record by starting the season with 11 consecutive wins.  Personally, I like his chances.

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Marquez streak on the line; silly season in full swing

August 5, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Indianapolis Preview, by Bruce Allen

After what seems like months the 2014 MotoGP season heads for the back nine, beginning at the historic Indianapolis Motor IMSSpeedway. While Repsol Honda phenom Marc Marquez has been basking in his ridiculous domination of the grid, a bunch of other riders have been busily defecting, or getting ejected, from their current teams, such that the 2015 grid will have a much different look to it. None of which will prevent Marquez from continuing to treat the premier class like his own personal sandbox.

For those of you who’ve slept since Round 9 at The Sachsenring, a rapidly-drying track there resulted in pandemonium at the start, with nine bikes comprising the grid and the other 14 wedged into pit lane, having changed from wet tires to slicks at the very last minute. Stefan Bradl, on the grid with a factory spec Honda and slicks, looked as though he might enjoy a cakewalk to his first premier class victory and an escape from the “underachiever” label he’d earned in two and a half seasons of virtually podium-free premier class racing.

Alas, Bradl was let down by his team, which neglected to change his suspension settings from wet to dry, resulting in a bitterly disappointing 16th place finish, the straw that broke the camel’s back of HRC Racing Director Livio Suppo’s patience. But while Bradl will be racing for others next season, Suppo’s young warhorse Marquez calmly sliced and diced his way through the field en route to his ninth win in a row. He was joined on the podium by teammate Dani Pedrosa, who stalked him all day, and Movistar Yamaha’s tarnished star, Jorge Lorenzo. Lorenzo’s wingman Valentino Rossi, who had podiumed in four of the previous five rounds, slipped to fourth and out of a tie with Pedrosa for second place year-to-date.

Very Recent History at Indianapolis

Marquez at AragonLast year’s Indianapolis Grand Prix brought into focus the fact that then-rookie Marquez had more than a puncher’s chance of winning the 2013 title. He swept all four practice sessions, qualified on the pole, recovered easily from a less-than-stellar start and won going away for his third consecutive win that year. He remained undefeated on American soil and, counting his two seasons in Moto2, has won at Indianapolis the last three years. Indy is one of those narrow, slow tracks that tend to favor the Honda, if one ignores the huge main straight where Andrea Iannone is likely to enter a low Earth orbit this weekend on the Pramac Ducati.

With the exception of Nicky Hayden, who will miss both this week’s race and next week’s tilt in the Czech Republic, all of the top riders are as healthy as possible, compared to last year when both Pedrosa and Lorenzo were coming off broken collarbones. No matter. If someone can conjure up a scenario in which Marquez fails to make it ten in a row this weekend, contact the author at Motorcycle.com. In the subject line of your email, please type “MARTIANS ARE EXTRACTING THE MOISTURE FROM MY BOXER SHORTS” so I’ll know to delete your message before it clutters up my own thinking.

Crutchlow 2, Ducati 1

Ducati logoThe annual charade of Bums Seeking Seats and Seats Seeking Bums goes into overdrive annually at this time of year, owing, in part, to Dorna rules that preclude some forms of tampering until after July 31. Without question, the most amusing and admirable job of moving from the outhouse to the penthouse this year was pulled off by burly Brit Cal Crutchlow. Recall how barely a year ago Crutchlow sold his soul to the devil, abandoning the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha team that had been so good to him for the filthy lucre of a factory Ducati ride to hell. Sure enough, he got paid, then proceeded to amass a grand total of 28 championship points in the first half of this season, compared to the 225 of Marquez and the 48 of Bradley Smith who appears to be (unsuccessfully) trying to get fired from the same Tech 3 team.

For the last two months, Crutchlow has been slamming Ducati Corse management, comparing his GP14 to a 1952 John Deere Model D crutchlowSpoker, and generally making himself as unpopular in Bologna as any man alive. All the while, he has been seeking a change of venue, wishing to take his game, such as it is, pretty much anywhere but his current residence, to no avail. Once it appeared there was nowhere else to go, he put on a stiff upper-lipped smile and, to management’s horror, agreed to honor his contract and stay with Ducati for the 2015 season. By this time, management had pretty much decided, correctly, that they love Andrea Iannone and wanted him to race alongside Andrea Dovizioso in 2015, dueling Andreas on an all-Italian, occasionally competitive factory team capable of restoring a hint of pride to a national identity that has taken an incessant pounding since the 1930’s.

Suddenly, though, LCR Honda, and their new (British) sponsor CWM (Come What May?) Financial washed their hands of Stefan Bradl and decided they could do worse than having Crutchlow head their two bike effort in 2015. And here’s the best part: Ducati found themselves having to pay Crutchlow to leave in order to make room for Iannone, as three man factory teams are a no-no since Honda last tried it in 2011. Crutchlow scores big twice, with a significant financial boost and resurrection from the Desmosedici to a factory-spec Honda upon which he probably thinks he can attain Alien status. Ducati takes yet another financial bath, but has their ϋber-Italian team in place for the first time in recent memory. The Bologna factory has been down so long it looks like up to them, and probably views all of this as a win.

There is plenty of other news pertaining to Suzuki and Aprilia and KTM, with names like Maverick Vinales, Aleix Espargaro, Eugene Laverty and even Alex de Angelis in the wind, but we’re out of room this week. Certainly, a number of loose ends, notably Jorge Lorenzo’s, will get tied up this weekend in Indianapolis, and so we’ll pick up where we left off next week in our Brno preview.

Weather and Assorted Other Hoosier Predictions

Sunny and warm conditions are expected to prevail in Indianapolis this weekend, a summer notable for its lack of extreme heat and abundance of rain. The infield portion of the track has been slightly re-configured and repaved, so lap times should be somewhat lower and the number of complaints about tire wear significantly so. It’s still too narrow, and the race runs in the wrong direction; the layout would probably work better if they ran clockwise, the way it was originally designed for F-1. Whatever. Marc Marquez is almost a mortal lock to take win #10 for the season, and I expect him to be joined on the podium by Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo. Valentino Rossi’s only win here came in 2008 in the midst of Hurricane Ike.

Dawson'sFor you locals, if you want a peek at some of the riders during down time, head over to Lino’s Coffee or Dawson’s on Main in Speedway and be on the lookout for some short, tightly-wrapped guys with heavy foreign accents and lots of logos on their shirts. Don’t bother looking for MM on Friday night—he’ll be over at the State Fairgrounds grand marshalling the AMA Indy Mile which, if you have the time, is another great way to spend an evening.

The race goes off at 2:00pm EDT, and we’ll have results right here later Sunday evening.

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Marquez overcomes weather and odds, remains perfect

June 28, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Assen Results, by Bruce Allen

The conditions confronting the riders and teams at the 2014 Iveco Daily TT Assen couldn’t have been worse. It had rained off and on all weekend, and race day featured everything from bright sunshine to hail (hail!) prior to the Moto2 tilt. The MotoGP teams were confounded by tire choices as the flag-to-flag contest unfurled. But when the rain and smoke cleared, Repsol Honda sophomore Marc Marquez had made it 8-for-8 in 2014.

Marquez swims across the line

Marquez swims across the line at Assen.

Round Eight of the 2014 season provided perfect conditions for upsets amongst the usual suspects. Jack Miller, leading the Moto3 league, crashed out of his race on Lap 2, leaving the door open for little brother Alex Marquez to win again today and significantly tighten the 2014 race. In Moto2, the feel good moment of the year occurred as Ant West, the grizzled field horse, doubled his career win total by prevailing on a drying track, winning for the second time in his grand prix career at the site of his first win back in 2003. As this goes to press, our crack research team is hunting down the “longest period between wins, career” stat in the archives.

Qualifying on Friday was a cluster. GO&FUN Gresini Honda’s Alvaro Bautista and factory Ducati Brit Cal Crutchlow had managed to sneak through Q1. Though the track for Q2 was dry, rain was fast approaching. The riders knew they would need to get their flying laps in early, the result being that the session looked like a race, with most of the 12 riders grouped together up front. Marquez appeared to have streaked to the pole with perhaps eight minutes left. Suddenly, out of nowhere, Aleix Espargaro on the NGM Forward Yamaha flew across the start/finish line, 1.4 seconds better than Marquez for the first pole by a non-major factory rider in over a decade. The eight minute qualifying session ended with Espargaro, Marquez and Dani Pedrosa on the front row, Ducati tough guy Andrea Iannone, Crutchlow and Tech 3 Yamaha pilot Bradley Smith on the second, and a dazed Jorge Lorenzo funking around in 9th place.

Wet at the Start, Dry at the Finish

Rain was falling as the big bikes lined up on the grid, beneath a patchwork of blue skies and black rainclouds. Factory Yamaha mullah Valentino Rossi and Pramac Ducati wannabe Yonny Hernandez were the only riders opting to start the race on slicks. Rossi changed his mind on the sighting lap, opting to start on rain tires from pit lane; having qualified 12th, he wasn’t giving up that much. Hernandez stuck to his guns, resulting in two (2) tire changes during the race and a 19th place finish, a lap down to Marquez and company.

As is usually the case at the start of a race, the qualifying order became jumbled immediately. Andrea Dovizioso and Marquez jumped out in front of Pedrosa, Espargaro and pesky overachiever Iannone. By Lap 2, Lorenzo had worked his way up to 6th place as the rain, which had been pouring down minutes earlier, pretty much stopped. For the Ducati riders, wet tracks are the great equalizer, as the performance of the Yamahas and Hondas drops down to where the Ducati runs all the time. Thus, at the end of Lap 4, the top six riders included Dovizioso in second, Iannone in fifth and Crutchlow in sixth. Alas, the rain stopped spitting, and the Aliens, or at least most of them, began heading for the front of the pack.

By Lap 6, Dovizioso was again sniffing Marquez’s rear, and it was time to switch bikes. The leaders pitted, did their Pony Express thing, and exited pit lane on slicks. During this Brief Shining Moment, Lorenzo held the lead with Nicky Hayden, who had managed to qualify 22nd, occupying second place. The two would ultimately finish 13th and 17th, respectively; Assen’s reputation as The Cathedral would be incomplete without a few martyrs.

Drama on Lap 7

Pushing hard on his out lap, Marquez ran wide, briefly went walkabout, and re-entered the fray trailing Dovizioso by four seconds, Doviziosowith Aspar plodder Hiro Aoyama sandwiched between the two fast movers. By then, the sky was mostly black, and it appeared another Pony Express change was in the wind. Had it occurred, with a number of the riders, including Aoyama, still on their rain tires, the results could have easily gotten scrambled.

Marquez, along with his other traits, proved today that he is highly adaptive to changing conditions, and just plain lucky. Lucky, in that the rain held off, allowing him to methodically track down Dovizioso on Lap 16 and ultimately win by almost seven seconds. Early on, while the race was being delayed, neither he nor his team appeared excited or anxious while confusion reigned. Again, we were reminded of the words of Kipling, who wrote of being able to keep your head when all about you are losing theirs. Crew chiefs were turning purple yelling instructions at their mechanics, and riders were running back and forth to the bathrooms. During all this, Marquez appeared relaxed, almost bored. I found myself wondering how often he shaves, if ever. With his smooth chin and easy smile he looks like a high school kid waiting for his date to finish doing her hair.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Aleix Espargaro and Dani Pedrosa fought a day-long duel for third place, with the racing world pulling hard for Espargaro, but it was not to be. Rossi, a mile behind the eight ball at the start, rode the wheels off his Yamaha YZR-M1, ultimately finishing fifth ahead of amico Iannone in fifth. Bautista managed not to cause any mayhem and moved up from 10th at the start to seventh at the close, followed by Smith, Crutchlow and LCR Honda’s Stafan Bradl.

The Big Picture

Marquez, now at 200 for 200, leads Pedrosa and Rossi by 72 points. Dovizioso sits in fourth, with a thoroughly messed up Jorge Lorenzo suffering in fifth place. Aleix Espargaro jumped ahead of brother Pol, who crashed twice today before retiring. Bradl, Iannone and Smith complete the top ten.

The Good News and the Bad News

If there is any good news for the riders at the top of the standings not named Marquez, it is that they are all relatively healthy. No broken collarbones sticking out like at this time last year, no ankles held together with screws and adhesive tape. The bad news is that The Sachsenring, next up on the calendar, is one of the two most Honda-friendly circuits on the tour, along with Motegi.

There is no reason to believe that Marquez will fail to repeat his win there last year, which would leave him undefeated at the halfway point of the season. With MotoGP’s annual summer vacation kicking in after that, the grid will have to deal with a rested and refreshed #93 when racing starts up again at Indianapolis in August. Awesome.

Since March, the concept of The Undefeated Season has shifted from Impossible to Implausible to Unlikely to Possible. If it continues, we will be forced to reverse our linguistic field, returning to Impossible on the eve of Valencia in November.

It could happen.

2014 Assen Top Ten Capture

2014 Top TenCapture

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Magic Marquez leads pilgrimage to the Cathedral

June 23, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Assen Preview, by Bruce Allen

Repsol Honda God-child Marc Marquez leads his team and the rest of the MotoGP grid to Assen, which has been hosting Marquez at Aragonmotorcycle races in one form or another on the last Saturday in June since 1925. During this period, the race has morphed from the Dutch TT to the Dutch Grand Prix, from a road race to a closed-course tilt, and from motorized bicycles to the fastest two-wheeled racing machines on earth. Revered by fans and riders, Assen would be a fitting place for Marquez to set yet another modern day record.

Rossi 2014Recall 2002, when the MotoGP God-child was a brash 23-year old Italian named Valentino Rossi. Rossi had entered the premier class in 2000 after having won titles in both the 125cc and 250cc classes. In 2001 he would win the first of five consecutive world titles, taking 11 of the 16 races that year aboard the 500cc Honda. In 2002, a rule change brought about the beginning of the four-stroke era, to which Rossi adapted almost immediately. In 2002, during his second premier class title year, he won seven races in succession, a mark that has stood ever since.

A mark which is likely to fall this Saturday afternoon to a new Marc.

In the modern era of MotoGP, no premier class rider has ever started stronger than has Marquez in 2014, winning the first seven contests of the season. Though the first five were relatively straightforward, the last two, at Mugello and Catalunya, have been bayonets at close quarters, and the young Catalan has not blinked. Assen, which, from the air, looks like a carelessly crushed little oval, boasts some of the highest average lap speeds on the tour, according to MotoGP. Yamahas have taken three of the last four races here, despite the shortest straight on the tour.Assen

Regardless, you can take all that talk, all those facts and figures, crumple them into a little ball and toss them in the trash. Marc Marquez is probably going to figure out a way to win Saturday’s race, establish a new record, and continue his ridiculous assault on 18-for-18.

Recent History at Assen

In 2011, Ben Spies, in his first year aboard the factory Yamaha YZR-M1, was the beneficiary of a first lap crash that took teammate and defending Assen and world champion Jorge Lorenzo out of contention. The charismatic and wildly erratic Marco Simoncelli, riding a factory spec Honda for Fausto Gresini, attempted to go through Lorenzo on cold tires, with negative consequences for both riders. Lorenzo re-entered the race in 15th position and worked his way back to a sixth place finish, while Repsol Honda pilots Casey Stoner and Andrea Dovizioso would join Spies on the podium.

The following year, Stoner, en route to his second world title, outdistanced teammate Dani Pedrosa by five seconds for the win. Running third again that day, this time on a satellite Yamaha, was Andrea Dovizioso. And again that year, Lorenzo was cut down by a Gresini Honda on Lap 1, this time by the narcissistic and spatially-clueless Alvaro Bautista. Four other riders crashed out that day, Colin Edwards retired with CRT problems, and Karel Abraham failed to start, having injured himself in practice. The 2012 race was notable for the fact that six (6) CRT bikes would finish in the points, owing to the demolition derby up front.

Last year, on a wet track, overachieving rookie Marquez chased a resurgent Valentino Rossi for a good part of the day, The Doctor prevailing for what would be his only win of the year on the factory Yamaha. Soccer hooligan Cal Crutchlow, bitterly piloting the competitive satellite Tech 3 Yamaha, finished third, cementing his credentials to become a Factory Rider for Ducati Corse and, in the process, virtually ruining his career. Defending world champion Lorenzo fractured his collarbone during FP2, flew home for surgery, qualified 12th and managed to finish fifth in one of the grittiest performances many of us have ever seen. Pedrosa would endure his own season-screwing collarbone fracture the following round in Germany, the two injured Aliens leaving the door open for Marquez’ shocking rookie championship.

Marc Marquez winning the title in 2013 was a surprise. In 2014, the surprise will be if he doesn’t win the title. Assen has been the site of a number of unexpected outcomes over the years, so another could be in the cards this week. My only advice to the Spanish youngster for Saturday: steer clear of Bautista and Redding.

Colin Edwards

An Apology to Colin Edwards

Many of you have accused me of treating Colin Edwards rather harshly in recent years, and I have come to agree. His interview elsewhere this week clearly illustrated the fact that he has paid his dues, enjoyed a great deal of success, and is as candid and honest about the sport and his place in it as anyone ever. He and Nicky Hayden seem to be kindred spirits.

Edwards’ best years were behind him when I began following MotoGP seriously in 2008. He is old school Texas through and through, brings a kind of dirt bike mentality to the sport, and likely would have enjoyed more success later in his career but for the advances in the control electronics that now dominate the grid. His performance at Silverstone in 2011, finishing third in the rain a week after breaking his own collarbone at Catalunya, was epic, both in terms of skill and stones. That it would be the last podium of his career is almost poetic.

This publication is full of shootouts, a term that brings to mind lining up a pair of thundering bikes at a streetlight, winding them up and lighting them off. Even at age 40, in that setting, with two identical machines, I would put my money on Edwards against anyone. If he had a couple of beers under his belt, I’d give odds.

Congratulations on a great career, Colin. I hope Michelin pays you wheelbarrows full of money to help them develop the next generation of MotoGP tires.

Ducati logoDucati Corse is SMOKIN’!

Perhaps you saw the announcement last week that Ducati will be leasing the Desmosedici, rather than selling it, in 2015. The subject is a bit academic, in that no one bought a single copy in 2014. (Unless they’re referring to Pramac Racing, which I think of as a Triple A factory team anyway. And why would they bother announcing a change in their relationship with Pramac to the press when they can just send an email?)

As regards 2015, I have only one question: To whom? Honda will surely beef up their production bike, in order to make amends with the likes of Aspar and Gresini. PBM Racing isn’t interested. There doesn’t appear to be a line forming of teams or riders anxious to risk life, limb and career on the Ducati. In fact, most of the current factory and Pramac riders appear willing to trade their current rides for just about anything short of an Evinrude-powered bathtub bolted to a couple of skateboards. Can the 2015 version really be a whole lot different/better than the 2014? Rome wasn’t built in a day.

Curious press release. If readers know more about this than meets the eye, please comment below.

Your Weekend Weather Forecast

It’s a shame that the Dutch Grand Prix is always run on the last Saturday in June which, in The Netherlands, is late winter. Again this year, high temps are forecast in the 60’s, with the best chance of rain on Sunday. The race goes off at 8:00 am EDT, and we’ll have results and analysis right here on Saturday afternoon.

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Marquez prevails in riveting Catalan GP

June 15, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Catalunya Results by Bruce Allen

As the bikes lined up for the start of the 2014 GP Monster Energy de Catalunya, the racing gods appeared to have had enough of Repsol Honda upstart Marc Marquez. His first crash of the season at the end of qualifying relegated him to the third position at the start, ending a string of seven straight poles. Teammate Dani Pedrosa looked ready to rumble, and storm clouds were building to the west; the smell of a flag-to-flag fiasco was in the air. Would his 2014 winning streak come to an end in the rain at his home track?

Um, no. Marquez engaged in a two-wheeled form of hand-to-hand combat with Yamaha mullah Valentino Rossi, followed by a knife fight with teammate Pedrosa, and ended up winning his seventh straight 2014 race by half a second over Rossi with Pedrosa settling for third. Those of us who thought we had seen the best of MotoGP at Mugello two weeks ago were treated to an even more compelling race today, as both Rossi and Pedrosa looked capable of winning. A Repsol one-two was only averted in Turn 11 of the last lap, when Pedrosa, desperate to overtake Marquez one last time, touched tires with his teammate, wobbled wide, allowing the opportunistic Rossi to capture second place. And the rain never fell.

Marquez at Aragon

Let’s be honest. After awhile, MotoGP fans become inoculated to the incomprehensible speeds at which these bikes operate. What we pay to see is overtaking in the turns, riders running shoulder-to-shoulder, teeth gritted and bared, massive slicks separated by centimeters and violent consequences likely when they make contact. At Mugello, Marquez and Yamaha star Jorge Lorenzo traded places perhaps a dozen times over the last third of the race, leaving the fans soaked in sweat and the announcers breathless. Today, I lost count of the encounters between the three eventual podium winners.pedrosa_marquez

Rossi spent most of the day leading a group of five, the four aliens and LCR Honda’s designated fifth-place finisher Stefan Bradl. Lorenzo had taken the early lead, but was dismissed by both Rossi and Marquez during Lap 4. Rossi held the lead for the next 16 laps, holding off challenges from the Repsol Hondas, who seemed to have the pace, while Lorenzo trailed in fourth, hoping for a mistake by someone. Over the last six laps, all three of the leaders held the lead at various points. Even though Marquez technically led the last six laps, the intra-lap drama was thick; it was literally anyone’s race. Suffice it to say that as hard as Marquez had to fight in Italy, he needed even more today. And, as we’ve seen all year, he’s had what it takes when he needed it.

So, on the day that officially marked the 65th anniversary of grand prix motorcycle racing, we had the first ever instance of two brothers winning grand prix races on the same day. Marquez’ little brother Alex started the Moto3 race from pole and won comfortably on the Estrella Galicia Honda. For Honda Racing Corporation and ultra-proud father Roser Marquez, 2014 was a Father’s Day for the ages.

Checking Pulses at the Top

2014 Catalunya podium

In Alienville, amongst the factory Honda and Yamaha teams, a quick status check is in order. Marquez remains untouchable, although his candy-colored tangerine flake enamel was slightly scuffed on Saturday when he failed to capture the pole. His win today marked the 100th win by a Honda bike during the four stroke era. It would surprise no one if Marquez is on board for their 200th win a few years down the road.

Dani Pedrosa once again looks dangerous, after having had surgery to correct an arm pump issue. Though he captured his first pole in a year on Saturday, he hasn’t won since Sepang last year, but appears to have recovered from his physical issues.

Valentino Rossi has reclaimed the #1 spot on the factory Movistar Yamaha team, four years after having ceded it to Jorge Lorenzo. With five podia in seven starts, there can be little doubt The Doctor still has it. Lorenzo showed us at Mugello that he can still compete, but psychologically he appears very fragile. In years past he would simply go out and seize wins. In 2014, the moon, the planets and the stars all need to align perfectly in order for him to have a chance of winning. Such alignment has yet to occur in 2014.

Elsewhere on the Grid

The brothers Espargaro, Aleix on the NGM Forward Racing Yamaha and junior rookie Pol on the Tech 3 Monster Yamaha, spent most of the day eyeball-to-eyeball, with big brother Aleix ultimately prevailing in 6th position, birth order still of paramount importance in Latin countries. Earlier in the year, I had predicted that Aleix might take a win at Assen or The Sachsenring, but such appears unlikely now, the difference in factory versus Marelli ECU software being too great to overcome. Aleix greatly covets a factory ride, which may come next year wrapped in Suzuki colors.

The Ducati contingent was led again today by veteran Andrea Dovizioso in eighth place, followed closely by Joe Iannone in ninth and a consistent Yonny Hernandez in 11th. Wildcard entry Michele Pirro, whom I had earlier this week accused of being under-rated, made a liar out of me by finishing 14th, almost a full minute behind the leaders and 18 seconds behind Hernandez. And, for the fourth time in seven starts this season, Cal Crutchlow failed to finish, apoplectic this time over an electronics issue that forced him to retire from the race. As charming as Cal has been with the media this year, he must be an absolute dream with his team, all sweetness and light, whenever a mechanical issue arises that interferes with his crashing out of the race.

Two Sponsorship Notes

GO&Fun girlCaptureToday we noticed two interesting developments on the sponsorship front. Interpol, the global equivalent of the FBI, is now a sponsor for Ducati, having apparently signed on to help the Bologna factory locate its competitiveness, last seen in 2009. And the brolly girls of the Gresini GO & FUN team, upon casual examination, appear to be wearing Camel Toe jumpsuits. With nothing going on for either Alvaro Bautista or Scott Redding, the umbrella girls are stealing the show. If I were Fausto Gresini, I would put Redding on the prototype and Bautista on the customer bike to see if things could possibly turn out worse.

The Big Picture

With Marquez firmly in charge, Rossi and Pedrosa now look set for a season-long battle for second place. Lorenzo and Dovizioso are close for now, but Lorenzo is likely to slowly pull away as the season progresses. The Espargaro brothers and Bradl will battle for sixth place; I expect one of the two Yamahas to prevail over the lone LCR Honda. Iannone on the Ducati and Bradley Smith on the #2 Tech 3 Yamaha are likely to complete the top ten for 2014.

Returning to Assen

Up next on the calendar is the annual pilgrimage to The Cathedral at Assen, the scene of Valentino Rossi’s surprise win last season. Steeped as it is in motorcycle racing history, Assen appears to be a suitable place for Marc Marquez to continue his assault on the record books. Low speeds are a given in The Low Countries, meaning the factory Hondas will have a built-in advantage.

As if they need another.

2014 Catalunya Top Ten

Catalunya Top Ten Race FinalCapture

 

2014 Championship Standings after 7 Rounds

 

Champ Standings after 7 RoundsCapture

 

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Marquez returns home, looks to stay perfect

June 10, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Catalunya Preview by Bruce Allen

Round 7 of the 2014 MotoGP season thunders into northeastern Spain, home to the historic Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya and, as luck would have it, Repsol Honda boy wonder Marc Marquez. Marquez, who grew up 70 miles west of here, considers Montmeló his home track. Sunday is likely to be Friends and Family Day in Catalunya.

cropped-jorge-lorenzo-2013.jpgSince Mugello, a number of people, some of whom have an axe to grind, have suggested that double world champion and Yamaha kingpin Jorge Lorenzo is BACK. Certainly, his performance in Italy was his best of 2014 and one of his best ever. But, with his bike performing flawlessly, at a track seemingly designed to the strengths of the YZR-M1 and riding at the limit pretty much the entire day, he was only able to manage second place. Two or three years ago, a ride like that would have been an almost certain win. In 2014, as good as it was, it wasn’t good enough.

Back in 2011, Lorenzo fought Andrea Dovizioso’s Repsol Honda, winning by one second with an elapsed time of 41:50.09. In 2012 he beat Repsol #2 Dani Pedrosa by five seconds, with a time of 41:37.48. Last year he beat Pedrosa by five seconds with a time of 41:39.73. This year, even with the time lost exchanging places with Marquez a dozen times, his time was 41:38.37. Minus Marquez and the time lost fighting him, it would have been his fastest Italian Grand Prix ever.

Not good enough. We observe that the second fastest rider on the grid riding at the absolute limit at perhaps his favorite track on the tour is not fast enough to beat Marc Marquez. Thus, we are left to conclude that the only thing standing between Marquez and perhaps 25 wins in a row will be a careless crash or plain bad luck. A blown engine. A tire losing pressure. A hornet in his helmet. Getting “collected” the way LCR Honda rider Stefan Bradl did at Mugello, by Cal Crutchlow’s riderless Ducati, grinding its way to the gravel pit.

Conventional wisdom in this sport has it that success is 80% rider and 20% bike. If you accept this, and unless you have a closet fullMarquez at Aragon of #93 gear, the prospect of the standard ECU in 2016 has to give you the creeps. I expect Marquez to come to grips, as it were, with the Michelin tires in 2016 as quickly as anyone and sooner than most. With a standard ECU and everyone running the same software, 80% may go to 90%. An unsettling prospect, to be sure.

Recent History at Catalunya

“Recent” is a relative word, especially when it comes to MotoGP. Looking back at the last three races here, we’ve seen the premier class change radically in 36 months. Exhibit A: 2011, when Marco Simoncelli took the pole on the Gresini Honda. During the race, Casey Stoner rode his Repsol Honda to the win by 2.4 seconds over Lorenzo, with Ben Spies’ factory Yamaha another 1.9 seconds in arrears. Three of the four top riders that day are no longer racing.

In 2012, the lactose intolerant Stoner started from pole, finishing off the podium as Lorenzo led Dani Pedrosa and Andrea Dovizioso across the line. Last year, Pedrosa started from pole—an accomplishment he has yet to repeat—finishing second to Lorenzo, but beating the pesky Marquez to the line by 6/100ths.

Progress at Pramac: Fact or Fantasy?Pramac_Racing

Watching the races this season, I’ve caught myself thinking that the once laughable Pramac Racing team has really improved a lot in the past year. Recall 2009 when Aleix Espargaro, Niccolo “Pokey” Canepa and Mika Kallio, late of Moto2, fronted the Italian satellite Ducati team. Kallio had a decent campaign, despite “retiring” from five races, finishing the year with 71 points. But Canepa and the 20 year-old Espargaro collected a total of 54 points between them while Rossi was winning the championship with 309 by himself.

Last year, the team started the year with Michele Pirro and rookie Andrea Iannone. Pirro, who I think is somewhat under-rated, collected five top ten finishes before being replaced by Yonny Hernandez after San Marino. Iannone, who came up from Moto2, was unprepared for life on the Desmosedici, managing a scant 57 points for the season to go along with a number of DNFs and a collection of injuries. Anyway, after six rounds in 2013 the Pramac duo had 49 points.

Fast forward to 2014, with Iannone a year farther along and Hernandez figuring things out. Iannone, especially, calls to mind what Andrea Iannonefolks used to say about Kawasaki bikes—‘fast while they last.’ He has run with the leaders for brief periods, generally fading as his tires go, and having crashed out at Jerez and Le Mans. Hernandez has been “in the points” in every race this season, but has only 22 to show for his six outings. In short, the team has managed only seven more points than it had at the same time last season. Perhaps they’ve had a little more fun along the way.

As a footnote, Cal Crutchlow had 71 points at this time last season aboard the Tech 3 Yamaha. Having earned his promotion to the Ducati factory team, he sits with 15 (15!) heading into Round 7. We’ve all heard how much Cal regrets the chain of events that brought him to where he is today. I’m wondering whether Ducati Corse doesn’t regret it at least as much as the burly Brit.

ECU Dispute

Ducati logoIn an effort to lower costs and level the playing field, Carmelo Ezpeleta and his minions at Dorna Sports declared prior to the start of the season that, commencing in 2016, every bike on the grid would run the same Electronic Control Unit and the same software. Since Dorna themselves wouldn’t know where to start designing the software, they decided that a committee comprised of engineers from the various factory teams—Honda, Yamaha, Ducati and Suzuki—would assemble over bagels and coffee and, you know, just put their heads together and come up with the incredibly complex programming that keeps these machines from becoming airborne at every turn.

Honda-Racing-Corporation-Logo-623x275The Italian firm Magneti Marelli, headquartered in Bologna and assumed by many to be sleeping with the bosses at Ducati, has been offering its ECU to the Frankenbikes since the start of the CRT era in 2012. Honda, wanting nothing to do with Marelli or a control ECU, has threatened to pull out of MotoGP altogether over the issue, but seems to be bluffing, having signed Marquez through the 2016 season. The suits at Ducati are apparently screaming that Honda is having too much influence on the design of the software. Yamaha and Suzuki, like Br’er Rabbit in the Uncle Remus stories, just be layin’ low, claiming, oddly, that they’ll be happy to work with whatever emerges from the coffee klatch/death match between Honda and Ducati. The dynamics of the whole deal—maximizing input without giving away trade secrets—are fascinating. Whether Ezpeleta & Co. designed this sideshow on purpose, or have been taken by surprise, it will be fun to watch for the next 20 months.

Your Weekend Weather Forecast

Sunny skies and mild temperatures are on tap for all three days, as one would expect for Marc Marquez’ homecoming parade. Anyone want to bet we won’t see the exact same podium this week as we did at Mugello? The lights go out at 8 am EDT; we’ll have results and analysis right here on Sunday afternoon.

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