Posts Tagged ‘Jorge Lorenzo’

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MotoGP Race Weekend Valencia Round 18

November 7, 2015

© Bruce Allen

Over the years, my approach to race day and, for the past four or five years, race weekend has changed. The first few years, when I knew more about humor than racing, I could work up story lines during the week, regardless of what actually occurred in the race. Since then, I’ve had to study hard, and struggle to keep up with my readers.
• I need to go to Mass on Saturday afternoon;
• I need to peruse the other half dozen major MotoGP sites to make sure I’m not missing something;
• I have to watch Q2;
• I can’t miss the Moto2 race or the half hour before the big bikes go off, when Nick and Matt give us deep background on the riders, etc. This is a problem during the Pacific swing when the races go off at, like, 1:00 am.
• I need to regret I’m no longer a rider;
• I get up to speed back as far as 2012, but rely on the announcers beyond that.

It is not a problem developing a Point of View about this stuff. If you’re paying attention, and depending greatly on your country of origin, you will adopt a contender about whom you feel passionately. Others, such as myself, tend not to boost a favorite, instead pulling for a competitive season. Like this one. The comments on the website suggest I’m a closet fan of one of the Aliens involved in this thing. I’m really not. Just no parades and a meaningful Valencia is all I ask.

Watching the mandatory Q2, it’s becoming a soap opera. Lorenzo obliterates the field on the way to pole, while Rossi crashes at the very end and walks gingerly off. As if things just couldn’t get any worse for Vale…

I consider the thought that even if Lorenzo gets away, we could have a final two laps involving Rossi and Marquez, which would be worth watching, Rossi needing second place to secure the title.

Lots of recent history between the two. Both feeling significant constraints and pressures. Together, the temperament of warriors, suffering equally from the sin of pride, they elect to do battle, or walk away, the outcome of the season at stake. Both feeling that they’ve been wounded by the other. Marquez out of contention, Rossi at the sharp end of it. Running glued together on the last lap of the race, Marquez in the lead. Aspettalo…aspettalo…a.s.p.e.t.t.a.l.o. Into the last turn. What an easy image to conjure. The fourth physical confrontation of the year between the two, the first three won, at least on some level, by Rossi.

Such a confrontation, in reality, would be one for the ages. I believe most people at the race would be pulling for the crafty old man. I do believe Marquez would be happy to tangle with Pedrosa, but not so much with either Lorenzo or Rossi. He doesn’t want to be the one blamed for keeping The Doctor from his tenth world championship, instantly developing a huge devoted group of haters. In a season going nowhere, it is probably, for Marquez, a rare opportunity to stand aside, wave your hat, bow, and admit you STILL want to ride like Vale.

Memo to Marquez: Nothing stupid. Nothing dangerously aggressive. Nothing to impede. If Lorenzo wins, all Rossi’s fans will ever remember is you keeping Him from His 10th title. If Rossi takes the championship, no one will remember how easy it was for him to go through on you, whose tires were worn to the rims. In this scenario, Lorenzo fans are disappointed, Rossi fans are elated, and your fans are neutral, as some prefer on or the other of The Bruise Brothers. No one is seeking blood. It’s all good.

It’s Saturday morning in Indiana. Even I have a lot to think about.

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MotoGP 2015 Valencia Preview

November 4, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

45 Minutes to a Championship

The two weeks leading up to the deciding moment of the 2015 MotoGP title have been unsatisfactory. Unsatisfactory in the extreme. For only the third time in 24 years, the premier class title will be decided in Valencia. But title contenders and factory Yamaha teammates Jorge Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi have gotten wrapped around the axle in a dispute with Repsol Honda #1 Marc Marquez that has stolen the spotlight from the race and shifted it to, of all places, an obscure courtroom in Switzerland.

Tossi-vs-marquez-di-sepanghis is so 21st century. A high-stakes sporting event engenders controversy on the track, the organizing body fails to fully resolve it to the satisfaction of the principals, and the lawsuits start flying. Deflategate on two wheels. Rossi fans are outraged. Marquez fans are outraged. Lorenzo and his fans, firmly in command of the low moral ground, insist Rossi should have been black-flagged on Lap 7 in Sepang, effectively handing the 2015 championship to #99.

Actually, it’s probably a good thing this is happening in the 21st century rather than the 19th, when Italy might have declared war on Spain.

Not having a dog in this fight, as well as being on deadline, I just wish for the whole thing to be settled. Now. Let Rossi’s penalty points be removed. Make him start from the back of the grid. Whatever. Just please don’t kick the can down the road and leave it to be fully adjudicated until next year. We, the fans of MotoGP, need closure. Preferably before Friday. As I’ve said before in this space, right now would be fine.

Recent History at Valencia

In 2012, Jorge Lorenzo had clinched his second premier class title at Phillip Island two weeks earlier and had nothing at stake in this one. The weather was, like a decent rosé, semi-dry. It had rained before the race, and was spitting at the start, but would end up dry, the worst possible conditions for the riders. A select few, including Lorenzo and Yamaha test rider Katsayugi “Catman” Nakasuga, took to the grid on slicks. Four others, having made their sighting lap on wets, would change over to slicks and start from pit lane. The remainders enjoyed one of the flag-to-flag affairs that almost always scrambles the results.

By the end of the day, Lorenzo had experienced a highside courtesy of pokey James Ellison, Dani Pedrosa had runDani-Pedrosa-2013-HD-Wallpaper-Photos away from the field, and The Catman, in the upset of the decade, occupied the second step of the podium between Pedrosa and Casey Stoner, who had run the last race of his first career. (Rumors floating around have him reuniting with Ducati for 2017, which I’ll believe when I see it.)

The 2013 finale was won by Lorenzo in a hollow victory, having failed to keep Marquez out of the top five, resulting in the remarkable rookie’s first premier class title. Lorenzo’s problem that day wasn’t Marquez but Dani Pedrosa, who kept pressure on the Mallorcan all day sufficient to prevent him from coming back to the field in an effort to hinder Marquez. Rossi, at the end of his first year back with Yamaha, was unable to lend his teammate a hand while finishing fourth. The Order of Aliens at season’s end was Marquez, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Rossi, an accurate reflection of their body of work over 18 rounds. Had Marquez not tagged Pedrosa’s traction control cable in Aragon, things might have worked out differently.

Last year’s race was, again, wettish, though the title had been decided weeks earlier. Lorenzo crashed in the rain with six laps left as Marquez was joined on the podium by Rossi and Pedrosa. The day’s procession culminated in the coronation of Marquez for the second time in two years, and the MotoGP world appeared to be his oyster. Little did we know then the trials 2015 held in store for him.

Of the four Aliens, Pedrosa can claim the best record here, with three wins and three podia in nine starts. Rossi has two wins and six podia to show for 15 starts since 2000, but the most recent of these came in 2004 when Marc Marquez was 11 years old. Jorge Lorenzo, in six premier class starts, has two wins and a third place finish in 2009 to go along with several violent DNFs. Marquez can boast of a win and a third in two MotoGP tries, barely breaking a sweat either time. Based upon history, one would expect the two Repsol Honda pilots to end the day on the podium, joined by a factory Yamaha rider to be named later.

A Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma

For the factory Yamaha team, preparing for the Gran Premio Motul de la Comunitat Valenciana must feel like preparing for a wrestling cage match against, like, six different guys. One thing is certain: should Lorenzo outpoint Rossi by seven or more points, the title is his. Six points or less, the Italian walks away with his record-tying tenth world championship.

Should Rossi’s penalty points stick, his mission becomes clear. Starting from the back of the grid will force him to throw caution to the wind, put his head down, lay on the horn, and make every possible effort to emerge close to the front, assess where things stand vis à vis Lorenzo, and go from there. If the penalty points are thrown out or “deferred” in some fashion (gag me), his predicament will then resemble that of Lorenzo, as expressed so eloquently back in the early 70’s:

“I can’t make decisions, I don’t know which way I’m gonna turn.”
–Ray Davies, The Kinks
Acute Schizophrenia Blues

This is not a “win or bin” situation for either rider. Assuming Pedrosa and Marquez qualify well and become part of the front group, Lorenzo, and perhaps Rossi, must then engage in an exercise economists refer to as “game theory.” Neither can afford to crash, yet Lorenzo must figure out a way to keep Rossi behind him and a few other bikes between himself and Rossi. What Rossi does will affect Lorenzo’s strategy, and vice versa. One mustn’t go slow, but going too fast is risky, too. And it’s all complicated by the fact that the Ricardo Tormo circuit suits the Repsol Honda riders far better than it does the Yamaha duo. All of which ignores the agendas of a number of non-Aliens on the track as well.

Two points here: Dani Pedrosa is on a very hot streak and is likely to have a material effect on the outcome. And this weekend, perhaps more than any in recent history, the pit boards are likely to tell the story.

Most of the articles I’ve read about this weekend’s race steeply discount Rossi’s chances if he is, indeed, forced to start from the back row. That Marquez was able to win a Moto2 tilt from the exact same spot several years ago is, at this moment, almost poetic. The putative Greatest of All Time may have to approach, at age 36, a feat his likely successor accomplished while still in his teens. And while it’s arguably harder to slice through the entire MotoGP grid than a Moto2 grid, it is not beyond reason to suggest that Rossi, if anyone, can pull it off.

Rossi and Lorenzo BreakupThe weather forecast for the weekend is, at this writing, idyllic. Every ticket has been sold. The riders and their teams have aired their dirty linen. The CAS is sifting through facts and allegations. The camaraderie between Rossi and Lorenzo that developed between 2013 and now is history. Lin Jarvis and Livio Suppo are as nervous as Mike Tyson in a spelling bee. The table is set, and the guests are on their way. Warm up your DVR, because this is one you may want to watch again.

We’ll have race results and analysis right here on Sunday morning

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MotoGP 2015 Sepang Results

October 25, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Rossi and Marquez clash; title up for grabs in Valencia

The 2015 Shell Malaysia Motorcycle Grand Prix will be remembered and talked about for years. Not for the fact that Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa won the race. Not for the fact that Jorge Lorenzo took second place to pull within seven points of the championship lead. Today will be remembered as the day Valentino Rossi allowed his emotions to get the better of him, such that putting Marc Marquez in the weeds and out of the race became a higher priority than winning his tenth world championship.

rossi-marquez_gold_and_gooseA one-sided war of words had erupted between Rossi and Marquez during Thursday’s press conference, when Rossi, unprompted, went off on Marquez for pretty much everything he could think of outside of halitosis. While a number of the top riders have criticized Marquez for his occasionally reckless riding style, up until this week no one had made things personal, which Rossi did. Slinging a bunch of defamatory accusations at a fellow rider is not against the rules, but it showed surprisingly bad form on Rossi’s part. Many of us thought it was purposefully overstated, Rossi playing mind games with Marquez, snubbing his teammate and championship rival Lorenzo, and/or putting the race stewards on alert for any misbehavior on Marquez’ part that could work to Lorenzo’s advantage.

Looking back, Rossi’s comments now appear genuine and perhaps even understated. What had gotten personal in the pressroom became personal on track today, with ramifications both immediate and forthcoming. The only good news resulting from today’s antics is that the season finale in Valencia has moved up the intensity chart, from “relevant” to “riveting” to, now, “epic.”

Business as Usual at the Start

Thanks to a fast final lap in qualifying on Saturday, Rossi climbed up to the front row of the grid, pushing Lorenzo back to fourth, with the thoroughly revived Dani Pedrosa sitting on pole after the fastest lap in Sepang history on a motorcycle and the ever-present Marquez sitting second. When the lights went out, Pedrosa took the hole shot and led heading into the first turn, trailed by Marquez and Rossi, Lorenzo having been swamped at the start. No worries. Midway through the lap, Lorenzo sliced past both factory Ducatis into fourth place, setting up an Alien encounter for the ages.

On Lap 2, Lorenzo went through on Rossi into third place while factory Ducati #1 Andrea Iannone was experiencing a mechanical failure that would end his day. In Turn 4 of Lap 3, Marquez (intentionally?) ran wide, allowing Lorenzo through, at which point Pedrosa and Lorenzo got away from their teammates and the drama that would follow. It appeared that Lorenzo, staying out of the fray in the media, was simply pushing hard to put some track between himself and Rossi. At this point we can’t know whether Marquez allowed this to occur or not. Matt Brit, the color guy on the announcing team, did ask, “How often do we see Marc Marquez going backwards in the standings?”

Four Unforgettable Laps

Lap 4 started with Rossi going through cleanly on Marquez, at which point it seems Marquez must have changed the setting on his dashboard from, like, “3” to “Get that Italian bastard.” Lap 5 was simply ridiculous, as the two went through on each other perhaps six or eight times, seeming to get more aggressive each time. The action continued on Lap 6 as Rossi, having passed Marquez once again, made a hurry-up signal with his left hand that I read as, “Come on, stronzo, you want some more of this?” Marquez, unafraid with his dad and brother in the garage, responded in the affirmative, setting up the events of Lap 7.

In a vivid example of the notion that reality is subjective, people will have wildly differing opinions on what actually occurred midway through Lap 7. Rossi, in the lead, appeared to drift wide in a fast right-hander, running slower than expected. As Marquez approached on his left, the Italian looked to his left once, then again, then appeared to slow down even more while veering farther left off the racing line. Marquez, expecting Rossi to accelerate, found himself with a Yamaha M1 closing in from his right and the curb approaching from his left. The two made contact, Marquez’ right front with Rossi’s left rear, causing Marquez to collapse the front and end up in the gravel. Rossi, having disposed of his new nemesis, went on to finish third; the last 13 laps were uneventful. As in, “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?”

FIM Rule Changes and Race Direction

FIM_LogoImmediately after the collision, it was announced that Race Direction would be reviewing the incident. After the race, it was announced that Rossi had been assessed three penalty points for intentionally causing contact with another rider, similar to the penalty Hector Barbera had received in the morning for carelessly putting Tech 3 Yamaha pilot Pol Espargaro in the gravel during the warm-up practice. The automatic appeal from Rossi’s people was unanimously declined.

Please bear with me while I go David Emmett for a minute. The three points, by themselves, would not have resulted in any kind of sanction for Rossi either today or at Valencia in two weeks. However, Rossi had received a penalty point at Misano earlier in the year for slow riding in the racing line during practice. It is this seemingly innocuous fourth point that is going to cause Rossi some major heartburn at the finale. FIM rules state that once a rider reaches four penalty points in a calendar year, he must start the next race from the last position on the grid.

Thus, the season finale finds the two top riders separated by a mere seven points, with the leader starting from the ninth row, while the challenger, Lorenzo, is likely to start from the first. I remember watching Marquez win a Moto2 race at Valencia starting from the back of the grid in 2012, and thought it was one of his most amazing feats. It is simply inconceivable that a rider, even a Valentino Rossi, can pull something like that off in the premier class. The question, then, becomes how far in front of Rossi Lorenzo can finish, assuming both finish the race. The last time I saw one of the Aliens start from the back row—Pedrosa, after an issue with a jammed tire warmer several years ago—he crashed out on Lap 1 grinding his teeth to dust trying to get back up front. Before moving on, let me remind you that Lorenzo holds the tiebreaker due to his having won more races this season than Rossi. Rossi’s seven point lead is actually six.

A Shocking Loss of Perspective

Today should have been a celebratory day for Valentino Rossi, as he became the all-time leader in grand prix racing starts with his 329th of a scintillating career. Today could have easily set up a spaghetti Western finish in Valencia, with the two rivals actually or effectively tied, facing one another, guns holstered and safeties off, at high noon in the middle of the dusty street. Instead, Rossi, the consummate veteran, the professional’s professional, allowed Marquez to get under his skin sufficiently to, in all likelihood, cost him a world championship.

Thus far this season, Rossi and Marquez have gotten physical three times. The first, in Argentina, left Marquez down and out, the first indication we received that his third premier class title might not be automatic. The second, in Assen, resulted in Rossi cutting the corner while Marquez ran wildly wide, giving Rossi his first win since Rio Hondo, the irony steadily building. Today’s clash left Marquez once again in the gravel as Rossi rode merrily on. The merriment, however, was short-lived.

Nothing gets sports fans going like a good blood feud, and we’ve got one now between two of the best ever, one at the tail end of his career, the other just beginning his own. Normally, it would be the younger combatant losing his cool and learning an important life lesson. Today, it was the grizzled veteran receiving a vivid reminder that one needs to keep his emotions off the track, that simply being annoying is not a violation of the rules, but administering an etiquette lesson at 100 mph is.

Looking forward to joining you all in Valencia in two weeks.

jorge-lorenzo-valentino-rossi-yamaha-motogp-2015-01

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MotoGP 2015 Phillip Island Results

October 18, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Marquez wins thriller Down Under; Rossi fourth 

Today’s Pramac Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix had something for every taste and budget.  Repsol Honda defending double world champion Marc Marquez, in his season of discontent, laid down an historic last lap to seize the victory from Yamaha mullah Jorge Lorenzo.  Lorenzo, trailing teammate Valentino Rossi by 18 points coming in, was blessed today by a statement performance from factory Ducati #1 Andrea Iannone, who slipped past Rossi one more time on the final lap and onto the podium, trimming Rossi’s lead over Lorenzo to 11 points heading to Sepang. 

Marquez and LorenzoOne of the problems with MotoGP over the past decade is that the races were often non-competitive high-speed processions.  A second problem has been the title often being decided with two or three rounds left on the calendar, reducing those races to beauty pageants.  No such problems exist in 2015, and neither was relevant to today’s battle.  Four bikes were in it all the way through; the results left the championship very much in doubt with but two rounds remaining and the announcers gasping for air.

Saturday’s qualifications produced a front row comprised of Marquez, Iannone and Lorenzo, followed by Dani Pedrosa, Cal Crutchlow (strutting his stuff in the former British penal colony) and ROY lock Maverick Vinales on the factory Suzuki Ecstar, with Rossi mired in seventh.  As the lights went out, Iannone beat Lorenzo to the first turn—a relief to everyone but Jorge—and took the early lead until Lorenzo flew past him in Turn 8.  Iannone came back at Lorenzo on Lap 2, despite colliding with a seagull midway through the lap, littering the racing surface with breakfast cereal—shredded tweet—and punching a fist-sized hole in the Ducati’s fairing.  [One shouldn’t consider what might have happened had the overconfident bird collided with Iannone’s helmet, packing the throw weight of a high-speed brick.]Iannone

The four riders spent the first half of the race in a tight knot, with everyone but Rossi enjoying some time in the lead.  As the riders approached the halfway point, they separated into a Noah’s Ark two-by-two kind of thing, Lorenzo and Marquez the lead pair followed by the two Italians.  Things closed back up with three laps to go, thanks in part to a sensational double pass by Iannone, who watched Rossi go through on Marquez, and then blistered past both Aliens into second place.  At the end of Lap 25, my notes showed Lorenzo leading, followed by Iannone, Rossi and Marquez, Lorenzo praying to Our Lady of Guadalupe for Marquez to push Rossi to fourth.  Which is how Lap 26 ended, setting up one of the great closing laps in MotoGP history, or something equally hyperbolic.

One for the Ages

Early in the final lap, Rossi went back through on Marquez, leaving the Catalan champion in fourth place, Lorenzo’s dream finish and nine point gain intact.  Marquez quickly returned the favor, now in third, in time for the following sequence.  Marquez goes through on Iannone.  Rossi goes through on Iannone.  Iannone goes back through on Rossi.  Finally, Marquez goes through on Lorenzo very late in the lap, tires shredded, having turned his fastest lap of the race on the final lap.  The four riders—three Aliens and Iannone, bucking for promotion—cross the finish line separated by just over one second.  Marquez, in a demonstration of things to come next year and beyond, went from fourth place to first in less than a lap, making the two future Yamaha hall of famers look old and slow, respectively.  And so Marc Marquez took a turn hammering Lorenzo similar to the way his teammate Pedrosa thumped Rossi in Japan, leaving 11 points separating the two Yamaha veterans with two rounds to go and the Boys in Blue looking suddenly vulnerable at season’s end.

Let’s Review

2014 MotoGP World ChampionMarc Marquez, for those of you who consider him to have been a flash in the pan, asserted his will on the grid today and was not going to be denied a win (his 50th across all classes) he needed more for psychological reasons than professional.  His first premier class points in Australia illustrate, for those of you goofing off in the back of the class, the old “on any given Sunday” adage so often attached to the NFL.  Jorge Lorenzo, who appeared to have things his way early on AND late in the day, ingloriously surrendered five points to Marquez that, before the season ends, he may wish he had back.  Iannone will probably be a full-fledged Alien next season, riding the next iteration of Gigi Dall’Igna’s handiwork.  And Valentino Rossi—poor old Valentino Rossi, leading the 2015 championship by double digits—gave up fewer points today than his effort justified.  Had Lorenzo held off Marquez at the flag, Rossi’s lead would be down to six points, a virtual toss-up in this fascinating 2015 season.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa ended a nondescript weekend in fifth position, nothing like his performance last week in Japan.  Maverick Vinales tied his best result of the year in Catalunya with an impressive sixth place finish, some 13 seconds in front of veteran teammate Aleix Espargaro in ninth.  Cal Crutchlow brought his LCR Honda across the line seventh, followed by Tech 3 Yamaha pilot Pol Espargaro.  (Pol takes a slightly different approach to the “always beat your teammate” rule, substituting the word “brother” for “teammate.”  Which he did again today.)  Meanwhile, brother Aleix, focused on whipping his little brother, needs to watch out behind himself, as Vinales trails by only four points.  Tech 3 Yamaha Brit Bradley Smith topped off an unproductive weekend by getting tweaked at the flag by Aleix, completing the top ten.

For the record, substitute rider and homeboy Damian Cudlin retired with a mechanical problem on Alex de Angelis’ bike, and Nicky Hayden became the only crasher today on Lap 10.  The so-called “race to the bottom,” featuring Ant West on Karel Abraham’s Honda and Toni Elias on the #2 Forward Racing Yamaha, was taken by West, who finished 23rd, two and a half seconds behind Elias.

The Big Picture

As noted earlier, with two rounds left Valentino Rossi leads Jorge Lorenzo by 11 points, a margin capable of disappearing, or reversing itself, in an instant in the heat and humidity of Malaysia.  Marquez and Iannone appear set to finish the season third and fourth, respectively.  Dani Pedrosa maintains a seven point lead over Bradley Smith for fifth place, the highly motivated Brit still not out of it, even on satellite equipment. Factory Ducati pilot Andrea Dovizioso trails Smith by a mere five points, but a disconcertingly poor showing today—13th place, 29 seconds out of the lead—suggests he may have cashed in his chips for this season, looking ahead to 2016, new tires, and a chance to put young Iannone back in his rightful #2 place.  The biggest surprise in the top ten for the season is Pramac Ducati’s Danilo Petrucci, a single point ahead of Pol Espargaro for ninth place, and only 10 points in arrears of Crutchlow.  Petrucci has a bright future in this sport.

Rumble in the Jungle Next Week

The 747s are winging their way to Kuala Lumpur for another grueling Malaysian Grand Prix.  We were there last year, and the equatorial heat is so punishing it’s hard to breathe, much less race motorcycles.  The brolly girls will earn their money next Sunday, in stark comparison to the slackers in Assen, who basically just stand around looking delicious.

Rain is always a threat at Sepang, with thundershowers almost every afternoon.  If we’ve learned one thing about this season, it’s that Jorge Lorenzo likes things dry and Valentino Rossi likes things wet.  We’ll keep an eye on the forecast with the expectation that each will get some of what he likes.  Personally, I’d like to see Lorenzo pick up at least seven points again next week, setting up what could be yet another Race of the Year in Valencia.  May the racing gods give us more like today!

Postscript–The images of the riders heading down the main straight at Phillip Island with the ocean in the background never fail to remind me of my favorite picture of Marco Simoncelli racing there the week before his death, when he finished on the second step of the podium.  In it, he is hurtling down the straight, the water and the horizon in the background, heat and shock waves emanating from his bike, head down.  Such a shame he’s not in the mix on days like today.

Simoncelli

Today’s Race Final

Standings Year to Date

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MotoGP 2015 Phillip Island Preview

October 13, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Lorenzo needs to win big this week and next

Movistar Yamaha idol Jorge Lorenzo, he of the two fairly recent world championships, has a steep hill to climb to set up a climactic finale to the 2015 season in Valencia. Which, in turn, necessitates opening a can of whupass on his legendary Italian teammate and rival, Valentino Rossi this week in Australia and next time out in Malaysia. It’s hard to envision Rossi, at this stage of his career, allowing an 18 point lead to disappear in two weeks. Sure, I know, that’s what Marquez almost did last year; my money’s on the old guy anyway.

Recent History at the Australian Grand Prix

2012. Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa, pressing, trailing Lorenzo by 23 points with two rounds left, in full “win or bin”

2012/10/20 - mgp - Round16 - Sepang - MotoGP - Casey Stoner - Repsol Honda - RC213V - Action

Casey Stoner circa 2012

mode, crashed early, his day and season over in one fell swoop. Stoner won for the sixth consecutive time at Phillip Island. Lorenzo finished a comfortable second and clinched the title, becoming the first Spanish double world champion. Other than Stoner’s Honda, it was two/three/four for Yamaha, as Lorenzo captured second, Cal Crutchlow in the Tech 3 Yamaha took third, and his Tech 3 teammate Andrea Dovizioso crossed the line fourth.

2013: Lorenzo won comfortably over Pedrosa, with Rossi, Crutchlow and Alvaro Bautista gripped in a hair-raising battle cropped-jorge-lorenzo-2013.jpgfor third that saw Rossi beat Crutchlow by .11 seconds while Crutchlow pipped the Gresini Honda pilot by .053 seconds, the blink of an eye. The first Australian Grand Prix in seven years not to feature Casey Stoner at the top of the podium. Marquez took the cheap DQ when he failed to pit in time, as Bridgestone struggled mightily to provide the teams with safe rubber up against a new, abrasive and untested racing surface. Even Race Direction was unable to keep Marquez out of the title in his rookie year.

2014: Marc Marquez crashes out of a four second lead on Lap 18 as his Bridgestone front seems to turn to glass. 23 Rossi 2014riders start the race; 14 finish. Thus relieved of the pesky Catalan wonder, Valentino Rossi led a trio of Yamaha M1s over the line, joined on the podium by Lorenzo and premier class podium virgin Bradley Smith, who whipped his Tech 3 Yamaha to his first premier class podium. Ever. None of it really mattered, as Marquez left Down Under ahead of chaser Lorenzo by 18 points on the way to his second world championship.

A Little Perspective

That Phillip Island is a Yamaha-friendly track is virtually beyond dispute, now that Casey Stoner has retired. Both Rossi and Lorenzo have enjoyed success in Australia, Rossi’s mainly coming in the pre-Stoner days until winning last year. Jorge Lorenzo is capable of winning at any track in the world. He is MORE capable of winning at a circuit like Phillip Island so well-suited to his riding style. If he gets out in front on Sunday, and the creek don’t rise, he’ll probably take an easy win. Rossi doesn’t need to win; he just needs to figure out how to stay close to the front. In front of Lorenzo, as always, is better than behind Lorenzo.

It is easy to imagine this being a race Marquez wants to win badly. After a ho-hum fourth place finish in Japan on Sunday, Marquez remains winless at Motegi in the premier class, followed this week by Phillip Island as the only two venues where he has yet to win in the MotoGP class. At Motegi, the story was the weather. This weekend the story will probably be the track, as Phillip Island is the fastest track on the calendar, and the Yamahas love it here. The intra-team battle at Movistar Yamaha promises to overshadow any other considerations. Beyond the weather, it will pay to watch tire degradation, as the Yamahas suffered last time out. The new surface at Phillip Island is highly abrasive; the Hondas, especially the minute Pedrosa, may enjoy an advantage late in the day when fuel loads have dropped and tires are going south.

In dry conditions, it still seems that the Aliens—Lorenzo and Rossi, Marquez and Pedrosa—continue to dominate the proceedings. Pedrosa made Lorenzo’s job harder last week by winning at Motegi, taking the win away from the Mallorcan and pushing him to shred his front tire early, allowing Rossi to go through late in the day.

Up until Sunday, Lorenzo was telling the world that all he needed to do was to win the remaining rounds to be world champion. Now, even that daunting task will not be enough, as he needs a Repsol Honda between him, winning, and Rossi, dropped to third place in this scenario, the only one that presents a realistic shot at this thing. Unless Rossi crashes… In short, Lorenzo has now lost control of his destiny. He needs to run the table and hope Rossi suffers some misfortune.

I can’t speak for everyone here, but what I want this season is for Lorenzo and Rossi to head to Valencia tied. Winner take all in Spain. The neatest, most simple way for this to occur is for Lorenzo to win, Marquez or Pedrosa to place and Rossi to show in each of the next two Pacific rounds. I don’t want Lorenzo (or Rossi, for that matter) to arrive in Valencia with some mathematical chance of winning, any kind of slim possibility or puncher’s choice.

I want them going there dead even.

That would be a race.

All of which means Lorenzo needs to win in Australia and hope for help from one, or both, of the Repsol Honda guys, who are clearly capable of providing such help. They’re equally capable of winning the daggone race, which would make Lorenzo’s job even harder, trying to stretch 20 points to reach as far as 25 would go. As is almost always the case, all Lorenzo can really do is go out and try to win the race. Any effort to control what might be going on behind him, by, for example, coming back to the pack, is unlikely to pay great dividends.

Alex de Angelis

alex-de-angelis (1)After watching Alex de Angelis go handspringing through the gravel in practice at Jerez in 2010 along with the remnants of his bike, I thought he was indestructible. (Search YouTube for “Alex de Angelis practice crash Jerez 2010”) And he walked away from that one. We read yesterday that his condition following his crash in FP4 at Motegi is now rated “critical,” and that he has blood on the brain, broken vertebrae, a punctured lung, and more.

These guys risk their lives every time they suit up. We have noted in this space often in the past that the difference between the best and the worst in this sport is razor-thin, a couple of seconds per lap. This is the chosen profession of every rider out there; only a handful get to compete at literally the highest level in the world. Alex de Angelis has been one of those men. Add him to the list of people we must try to be nicer to.

We presume that Alex will recover and return to racing, if not this year then next, and send our sincere best wishes to his family, his team and his fans.

Your Weekend Forecast

High temps will be dropping from the 90’s on Thursday to the low 70’s on Sunday, with the best chance of rain on Saturday. The wind, as always, will be blowing hard from a different direction each day of the weekend, possibly becoming yet another factor in a pivotal contest.

Valentino Rossi, enjoying life with the lead, can afford to be strategic this weekend. No need to ride the wheels off his bike to take a win unless it’s Lorenzo in front of him and he just can’t help himself. For Jorge Lorenzo, the playoffs begin this week. Staying close to the front is no longer an option. He needs to run the table, praying for good weather and all things Spanish.

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MotoGP 2015 Motegi Results

October 11, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Pedrosa’s first win of the season puts a hurt on Lorenzo

The 2015 MotoGP championship season that was, back in April, a marathon is now a sprint. Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa helped his employer avoid potential disgrace at the hands of Yamaha, his win today (actually brilliant, I think, in a world of routine overstatement) under difficult conditions and well under the radar. In the process, he threw some more dirt on what has become Yamaha factory stud Jorge Lorenzo’s shallow grave–bad things happen to Lorenzo on wet tracks.

pedrosa-marquezMotegi on this Sunday was cool and damp, the track wet, a light drizzle falling. The riders all put rain tires on their race bikes and had their #2 bikes set up for the wet in case something untoward were to happen during the sighting lap. Once it was complete, the teams re-set the bikes for the dry in anticipation of an expected flag-to-flag cluster. The riders appeared more tense than usual as they lined up on the grid. Everyone wanted to talk to the Bridgestone people.

For Lorenzo and, to a lesser extent, Rossi, today’s conditions were too wet for drys and too dry for wets. Each chose rain tires, a hard front and a medium/soft rear. The 2015 Yamaha YZR-M1 is clearly a better bike than the 2015 Honda RC213-V, but one of its weaknesses was exposed today. On a wet but drying track, the M1 now behaves more like a Ducati in terms of tire degradation. The Bridgestones on most of the factory Ducatis lasted until Lap 14, when three riders left the race involuntarily. For Lorenzo and, to a lesser extent, teammate and series leader Valentino Rossi, it appeared more rain today would have been helpful.

Even I have trouble with that last thought, insofar as the championship discussion itself includes only the two Yamaha pilots. As much as some people try to deny it, Jorge Lorenzo and rain is now A Thing. Had it rained hard, Lorenzo would have still lost four or five points to Rossi. The relative result likely wouldn’t have changed. (I suspect Lorenzo would have lost more ground to Rossi on a truly wet track, as all of the Italian riders seem to be mudders. Surprising to see Petrucci and Iannone crash, as the Ducati handles well in the wet. Left to ponder the tires, always the tires…)

In a nutshell today, Pedrosa came from out of nowhere to win the race, trailing at the end of Lap 7 by almost 9 seconds as Lorenzo was running away. Pedrosa had struggled all weekend in dry practice sessions but won the wet WUP. As his fuel load dropped, he watched the Yamahas and Ducatis grind their Bridgestones to powder on the drying surface of the racing line. Then, on Lap 8, he began reeling in Ducati #2 Andrea Dovizioso (Lap 11), then Rossi (Lap 16) and finally Lorenzo on Lap 18. On Lap 19, both riders on the rims, Rossi gave Lorenzo the slap, taking him from what, most of the day, would have been a 5 point lead and jumping it to 18, which is a lot with three rounds left. Pedrosa laughed his way to his first win of the year, the 50th of his career, and his 139th career podium, third in wins in the history of MotoGP.

A garage full of trophies and not a premier class title to show for it.

This is now two races in a row in which the post-Stoner, pre-Marquez Aliens hogged all three steps of the podium, with Pedrosa lately appearing as rejuvenated as Rossi has all year. Lorenzo, as we know, usually wins due to his tactics, i.e. get out in front of everyone and never see another bike all day. Rossi, and Pedrosa, are more strategic in their approach, more patient; it seems they can afford to be patient while Lorenzo can’t. Lorenzo’s tactics chewed up his front tire, which is usually not an issue for him, appearing to get less than his full attention until it was too far gone.

Usually it’s not an issue for either Yamaha rider. Today, however, it was an issue.

Years from now, scruffy motojournalists will be looking up race results and see at the bottom of this one “wet track” and that Rossi took another four points away from Lorenzo, and think “ok, this again. Lorenzo couldn’t ride in the rain.” Given the way this one went, he can be forgiven for thinking that. Let’s not forget, class, we’ve agreed that the weather will be a determining factor in this year’s championship. In fact, it just has. Again.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Soon to be former world champion Marc Marquez managed fourth place today despite a difficult start from the front row and a broken left hand. He passed the tireless (!) Dovizioso on his way down from third to fifth place, where he just edged out LCR Honda’s Cal Crutchlow, on his way to winning the Battle of Britain against Tech 3 Yamaha’s Bradley Smith by a scant 4/10ths . Yamaha test rider Katsuyuki “Katman” Nakasuga, on a full factory bike, claimed eighth place today, satisfying but not nearly as satisfying as his second place finish at Valencia last year, other than this one having been on his home turf. Hectic Barbara drove the Avintia Racing Ducati to the top open class spot in ninth, with Scott Redding Taking No Chances on the Marc VDS Honda to complete the top ten.

One rider whose day had its ups and downs was Factory Suzuki operator and big brother Aleix Espargaro. Starting the day in a solid seventh place, he was running in sixth when he went walky at Turn 1 of Lap 6, dropping back to 18th place, from whence he whipped his GSX-RR to a disappointing 11th place finish.

That’s a whole lot of work for 11th place.

The Big Picture

Rossi leads Lorenzo by 18 points with three rounds left, Phillip Island and Sepang looming on the horizon. He will likely have a magic number in his mind—25—heading into Sepang. If Rossi can manage to depart Sepang with a lead of at least 26 points, it will be over.

We will look at each Alien rider’s recent history at these upcoming tracks in Wednesday’s previews. Unlike the world of stocks and bonds, in MotoGP past performance IS an indicator of future results. Pedrosa’s fifth premier class win at Motegi gives testament to that one.

2015 AliensMarc Marquez, in a season of feast or famine, sits solidly in third place, enjoying a 25 point lead over wounded Ducati #1 Andrea Iannone, whose crash today cost him in the standings. And now trailing Dovizioso by only 18 is the resurgent Pedrosa, with 45 points in the last two rounds. His his arm pump surgery in the spring having cost him three full races and parts of two others, Pedrosa sat in 13th place with 23 points after Mugello. Pedrosa appears now to be approaching 2016 with his Alien status intact, a rider capable of winning if not every time out, then many times out.

Today, Dani Pedrosa was the best rider on the track. He appeared to enjoy himself immensely. With absolutely nothing to lose, and familiarity with the upcoming tracks verging on intimacy, he is a threat to podium for the rest of the season. This, in turn, puts more pressure on Jorge Lorenzo, as now he must not only beat Rossi, but keep Pedrosa out of the lead, to have a chance for his third world championship in 2015.

How ironic if the greatest MotoGP rider never to have won a title ends up depriving a double world champion of his third? Or a seven time world champion his eighth?

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MotoGP 2015 Motegi Preview

October 6, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Round 15: The Bruise Brothers Square off in Japan

mothra-vs-Godzilla - CopyThe MotoGP website is somewhat predictably promoting this week’s tilt between Movistar Yamaha tough guys Jorge Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi as “The Clash of the Titans.” Which, to an on-the-street local racing fan here, would naturally bring to mind Godzilla. If, in fact, the Motul Grand Prix of Japan gives us a replay of Mothra vs Godzilla, I assume the indomitable lizard triumphs, suggesting that Rossi will play the role of Mothra. It is easy to envision Lorenzo on the top step this weekend, surrounded by Honda pilots, Rossi’s margin at the top of the 2015 heap vanishing in the haze.

This is the way racing is supposed to be. It’s a relationship thing, really. Rossi and Lorenzo have known each other as friends and rivals for a decade. Together, they’ve already given their present employer Yamaha the 2015 Manufacturer’s championship. They have a bazillion world championships between them, and Rossi’s current 14 points advantage. Lorenzo’s, um, demeanor when he came up as a rookie in 2008 was such that they built a wall down the middle of the garage and had to be kept separated. Since then, each has mellowed, Lorenzo has matured, and Rossi, somehow, remains humble, irrepressible and fast. Beating one another is one of their great pleasures in life.

It doesn’t get much better than this. If you’re a Honda fan, you can still have a good time. You’ll just have to wait for Rossi & Lorenzonext year to have a rider in contention for a world championship. This is The Year of the Yamaha.

Recent History at Motegi

2012. Heading into the race Yamaha Chico de Oro Jorge Lorenzo led Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa by 33 points, with Stoner in third recovering from the ankle he trashed in Indianapolis. That day, Pedrosa beats Lorenzo and Gresini Honda’s Alvaro Bautista (?) comfortably in as empty a win as you’ll ever see. During the race, Stoner has issues, as does Rossi, plodding on his Ducati. Spies crashes off the factory Yamaha early, Crutchlow off his Tech 3 Yamaha late. Pedrosa, with all the momentum, leaves Japan trailing the rock-hard Mallorcan by 28 points with two rounds left, the fat lady singing in the background.

The 2013 race was summarized elegantly by this publication, as follows:

Sick of all the attention the racing gods were getting in the run-up to this weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix, the weather gods put on a show of their own. They sent Typhoon Lekima barreling toward the island on Thursday, summoned a 7.1 earthquake on Friday night, and topped it all off with Typhoon Francisco on Saturday, making a shambles of the weekend practice schedule. Undeterred by the weather, defending world champion Jorge Lorenzo ran a perfect race on Sunday, winning against all odds, and setting up a meaningful season finale against Marquez in Valenciana. Take THAT, weather gods!

Last year it was All Aliens, All the Time as Lorenzo led a pack of highly-paid pursuers to the finish line, with Marquez, Rossi and Pedrosa all following on their factory machines, the time between 1st and 4th a mere 3.1 seconds. Though Diviozioso took the pole, the four Aliens were grouped from the 2 to 5 holes. Marquez, leading the series, conceded first place to Lorenzo and clinched the title. The race featured contact between Lorenzo and Marquez on Lap 5 which arguably cost the Catalan the race. The Samurai ceremony afterwards was cool if somewhat ironic, in that a number of fans might have been offended while most western observers were clearly stoked.Samurai celebration

Comings and Goings

The team lineups are beginning to shape up for 2016, the year of the “spec” ECU and Michelins. The four top factory teams will remain the same. A supposedly revived Gresini Aprilia team will feature MotoGP underachievers Alvaro Bautista and Stefan Bradl. Brit Sam Lowes reportedly has a contract with Aprilia for 2017-18, meaning one of the two vets will have to go. My take on this is that Fausto has barely tolerated Bautista all these years since Simoncelli, and that Bradl hadn’t had enough time to get under his skin yet but surely will. Big changes underway for the Gresini team this offseason.

The Monster Tech 3 team is to stand pat with Pol Espargaro and Bradley Smith as expectations there continue to rise. Pramac Ducati gives Yonny Hernandez’s seat to Scott Redding, who needs all the grunt the Desmosedici can muster, to team with the ascendant Danilo Petrucci. (I’m not sold on Redding in the premier class yet, but am totally sold on Gigi Dall’Igna.) LCR Honda continues with the disappointing Cal Crutchlow, and Marc VDS signs Tito Rabat to a factory Honda, coming up from Moto2, to take Redding’s seat. The Most Blessed Jack Miller, the Anointed One, has a full ride with factory Honda and will land either on LCR or VDS.

Team Aspar, seriously negotiating a change from Honda to Ducati equipment for 2016, has signed Hernandez. Their second seat appears up for grabs, with incumbent Eugene Laverty enjoying no advantage going in. Deposed incumbent Nicky Hayden appears surely to be headed to World Super Bike, where he can expect to contend for titles again.

Avintia Racing stays with Ducati, Hector Barbera and the recently-signed Loris Baz aboard. The French Baz appears to have a surprisingly bright future at 6’3”, making the jet setters look like teenagers while whipping his cobbled-up Yamaha toward the top of the heap for open class riders.

Farther down the food chain, two of the remaining three teams looks to be out of business next season. Most likely to continue with Alex de Angelis is brave little Ioda Racing, hoping to field a two man satellite Aprilia team, rider #2 as yet un-named. Forward Racing seems doomed, and Karel Abraham’s future with his dad’s Cardion AB team is in doubt as he seems to have permanent damage from a foot injury he suffered last season. Dude needs to retire.

All of which suggests that KTM, upon their entry to the grid in 2017, may bump a team out of the chase, in addition to skimming a couple of up-and-coming riders, perhaps on their way up from Moto2. The chase is intended to be more competitive due to the standard ECU, which writers elsewhere have described as something of a target-rich environment for tampering behaviors similar to those admitted to recently by Volkswagen. Regardless, MotoGP continues, at its core, to be rather biblical, as you will always have the poor with you, the “privateer” teams that struggle every season but can’t pull themselves away easily. Those of you who have stood or rode on the tarmac understand the juice that drives these behaviors. I should be nicer to these guys.

The Thing is…

Everybody tells me the tires are everything. Whomever adjusts to the new Michelins most quickly will take the lead in the championship next year. It is probably going to be the worst year in MotoGP history to bet on the outcome. Though it could easily last only for a season, or even part of a season, there could easily be a shakeup in the Aliens lineup come 2016, the older riders becoming most vulnerable. Suppose Rossi decides to go out on top. Suppose Yamaha begins flirting with Marquez.

It promises, at the least, to be interesting.

Your Weekend Forecast…

…couldn’t be worse for most teams. Sunny on Friday and Saturday with a 90% chance of rain on Sunday. I was going to suggest people “plan to listen to the Spanish national anthem after the race, not the Italian.” But if it is a wet race, all bets are off on the outcome, with Rossi clearly holding the upper hand. Once again the weather gods appear poised to influence the standings.

Mothra may be feeling pretty good about the rematch.

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MotoGP 2015 Aragon Results

September 27, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com.

Lorenzo seizes the day, cuts into Rossi’s lead

Factory Yamaha pilot Jorge Lorenzo, in a race he absolutely needed to win, did so convincingly, leading wire to wire on the dusty plains of Aragon. Thanks to Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa, he reduced his deficit to teammate Valentino Rossi from 23 points to 14, as Pedrosa held off repeated assaults from Rossi over the last five laps. Fans around the world expected Rossi, who hasn’t won a race on Spanish soil since 2009, to take Pedrosa’s lunch money late in the day. But the diminutive Spaniard willfully held on, denying Rossi four points he badly wanted, and tying his best result of a winless year.

Lorenzo in the rain at Le MansAs expected, the practice sessions on Friday and Saturday featured Lorenzo and defending world champion Marc Marquez, looking fast and dangerous on the #1 Repsol Honda. Marquez shredded the track record in qualifying on Saturday, earning yet another pole. His start today earned a C from the judges as he exited Turn 1 in third place behind Lorenzo and Andrea “Ironman” Iannone, racing again with a recently dislocated shoulder.

Marquez went through on the Italian later in Lap 1 and set his sights on Lorenzo. Unaccountably, as he was closing on the Mallorcan on Lap 2, he lost the front in Turn 12, backdropped by the massive stacked stone wall that always makes me think of The Inquisition. For the fifth time this season, young Marquez ended up in the gravel, the result of an unforced error caused, one would think, by youthful exuberance, overconfidence, a feeling of invulnerability or, most likely, a combination of the three, the magic of 2014 clearly gone. Until he learns to manage his emotions more effectively (the same problem Lorenzo had in 2008) he will not win another world championship.marquez_crash

As strange as it sounds, the lessons of 2015 may end up serving Marquez well. If he learns he doesn’t need to use every ounce of the considerable speed he possesses during every single moment of every single race, he will keep the shiny side up and compete for the next 10 or 12 world titles. Again and again we’ve seen the veteran Rossi keeping his powder dry and his tires intact, looking for the ideal opportunity to pass a rival and earn points. Winning a race by 12 seconds counts no more than winning by 12/1000ths; points is points, a fact often overlooked by youthful combatants.

67,000 Fans Held Their Breath

With Rossi glued to Pedrosa’s tailpipes all day, the mostly Spanish crowd waited for the inevitable takedown, when Rossi would go through and begin thinking about Lorenzo. Pedrosa passed the wounded Iannone on Lap 3, Rossi on Lap 4. (Iannone’s expected late day fade, due to pain in his shoulder, never materialized, as he finished a very gutsy fourth today, some 16 seconds clear of teammate Andrea Dovizioso.) Round and round they went, Rossi never trailing by more than 4/10ths nor less than two, until Lap 19.

Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380Over the last five laps, Rossi attacked the Spaniard no less than four times, going through briefly only to get re-passed in the next turn. He would try twice in Turn 1 and twice more in Turn 4, Pedrosa never conceding a thing. As the crowd began to turn blue from oxygen deprivation, Lorenzo took the checkered flag, with Pedrosa gasping his way to second and Rossi taking an exhausting third.

During the post-race press conference, Pedrosa acted surprised when asked how he was able to withstand Rossi’s repeated attacks, a measure of the confidence with which he still approaches his trade. As his tenure with the factory Honda team approaches its end, he will be an asset to one of the newer teams—Aprilia or Suzuki or KTM—anxious to retain his services once HRC bids him farewell. Despite never having won a premier class title, he has forgotten more about this stuff than guys like Alvaro Bautista and Hector Barbera have ever known. Even if you’re a big Nicky Hayden fan with a long memory, Dani Pedrosa deserves your respect.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Five riders spent the shank of the day fighting over fifth place. Borrowing from the book of Genesis, “in the beginning” it looked like Tech 3 Yamaha little brother Pol Espargaro enjoyed the inside track, until he went walkabout on Lap 4, falling from fifth to tenth place, ultimately finishing ninth. This sounds worse than it actually was, as he finished only two seconds behind Dovizioso in fifth, separated by big brother Aleix on the Suzuki Ecstar, LCR Honda hooligan Cal Crutchlow, and teammate Bradley Smith. Smith, notably, had a forgettable weekend, qualifying 10th and finishing 8th, though still managing to hold onto fifth place for the season. Lame duck Pramac Ducati rider Yonny Hernandez completed the top ten, pipping Suzuki’s Maverick Vinales at the flag, despite a slew of pre-race flyovers from the Spanish Air Force, one of the two F-16’s emblazoned with Vinales’ #25.

Non-finishers today, besides Marquez, included the hapless Alex de Angelis, crashing out on Lap 6, Pramac Ducati overachiever Danilo Petrucci, who lowsided on Lap 10 for his first time outside the points all season, and a visibly pained Karel Abraham, who retired his open class Honda on Lap 12, apparently having re-injured his troublesome left foot. Karel, buddy, do the industry a favor and give it up. You’ve got a law degree and a rich father. Go put on an expensive suit and take clients to lunch, and let this MotoGP thing go. 38 points in three seasons–dude, it’s just not happening.

The Big Picture

In two weeks, the ass-dragging, sweat-soaked Pacific flyaway commences in Japan, with three races in three weeks. 14 points now separate Rossi and Lorenzo, two of the most talented riders on the face of the earth, on the same equipment, sharing the same garage. Old and crafty versus young and fast; the fable of the tortoise and the hare on two wheels. We all know how that ended. Whether the same holds true in MotoGP remains to be seen. Personally, I have my doubts.

Marquez now leads Iannone by a meagre 12 points in the battle for third place and looks vulnerable. If Iannone manages to capture third place for the year, I will be conferring Alien status upon him, certain that Gigi Dall’Igna will provide him a further-improved ride for 2016. Bradley Smith enjoys a four point advantage over Dovizioso for fifth place; it would be great to see the wide-eyed Brit finish the season in the top five. Whether Dovizioso will allow this to happen, if indeed he can do anything to prevent it, is yet another unknown. Pedrosa, now trailing Dovizioso by only ten points, could easily jump up to fifth place for the year based upon what he showed today, after having endured a wretched start to the 2015 season.

Ducati, Yamaha and Honda all have a dog in the fight for eighth place, as Petrucci, Crutchlow and Espargaro the Youngermotogp-suzuki-espargaro-vinales are separated by only five points. At the tail end of my attention span, the two Suzuki teammates are separated by a mere two points in the contest for 11th place. Certain Rookie of the Year Vinales, it would seem, has more on the line, in that ending the season as the #1 rider on the team would bolster his chances of securing a ride with one of the more established factory teams commencing in 2017.

As October approaches, we find one of the factory Yamaha Bruise Brothers lighting candles for sunny skies and the other praying for rain. Is it even possible that the 2015 MotoGP championship hinges on the weather? The mind reels.

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MotoGP 2015 Aragon Preview

September 22, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com
For Jorge Lorenzo, winning—right now—would be fine

After the debacle at Misano, factory Yamaha stud Jorge Lorenzo observed that capturing the 2015 MotoGP title requires only that he win the remaining five races. His Plan A, which to many seems unlikely, could give way this weekend to Plan B, which would have teammate Valentino Rossi crashing out of a race or two. But Rossi, on average, crashes maybe once a season, most recently at Aragon a year ago. Lorenzo, who loves racing on the dusty Spanish plain, needs to make some hay on Sunday; beating his teammate has never been so important.

Rossi & LorenzoSince Lorenzo’s four round winning streak ended at Assen, Rossi has outpointed the Spaniard by 22 points, half of which came last week with his somewhat disappointing fifth place run in the rain of San Marino. Rossi’s reliability is one reason he’s fighting for a championship at age 36. Since the beginning of the 2012 season, he has started and finished all but three races to Lorenzo’s five. Both are consistent, but Rossi has the edge.

The main thing Lorenzo has going for him this weekend is the venue; Rossi simply hasn’t been very good in five outings at Motorland Aragon. Granted, during two of those years he was wrestling a pre-Dall’igna Ducati, which explains some of it. But while Lorenzo has gone 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd and 1st, Rossi has finished 6th, 10th, 8th, 3rd and not at all last year. For Lorenzo, that’s the good news. The bad news is that anything other than a solid win this weekend will put him in the trick locker, a nice working definition of the term “pressure.”

I have failed to mention double defending world champion and factory Honda wonderboy Marc Marquez, who won last Marquez in Sepang 2013time out and is likely to be a major fly in the ointment for Lorenzo on Sunday. The young Catalan figures to be in the middle of things this weekend, complicating life more for Lorenzo than Rossi. Let’s just call a spade a spade and suggest that Lorenzo needs to beat both Rossi and Marquez at Aragon. Almost any other order of finish works in Rossi’s favor, and the grueling Pacific swing beckons.

Recent History at Aragon

In 2012, Round 14 was Dani’s Revenge, as Pedrosa, whose season went up in smoke following his last-row-start-first-lap-crash at Misano two weeks previous, won comfortably. Lorenzo finished a conservative, relatively risk-free second that day, while Monster Tech 3 scrapper Andrea Dovizioso pushed his satellite Yamaha to the limit on his way to a gratifying third place finish (joyfully pimping teammate Cal Crutchlow at the flag) and subsequent “promotion” to the factory Ducati team in 2013. Over the last half of the 2012 season, Pedrosa epitomized the “win or bin” metaphor so often spoken of in racing (generally by Brits) by winning six of his last eight races and crashing out of the other two. Despite piling up his highest career point total in 2012, Pedrosa would end the year 18 points behind Lorenzo, a short, swarthy bridesmaid once again.

In 2013, rookie Marc Marquez, unaware that Aragon was a Yamaha-friendly layout, calmly went out, took Jorge Lorenzo’s best shot, and beat him by 1.3 seconds. Valentino Rossi, in his first year back on the factory Yamaha after the painful two year exile with Ducati, took a rather hollow third, some 13 seconds behind Marquez. The rookie phenom’s 39 point lead over Lorenzo at the end of the day would prove insurmountable. Notwithstanding the gratuitous DQ he absorbed at Phillip Island three weeks later, Marquez went on to clinch his first premier class title with a smart, strong second place finish at Valencia in the season finale.

Last year’s Gran Premio Movistar de Aragon provided fans with 44+ minutes of two-wheeled slapstick, a memorable flag-to-flag affair that left the day’s results scrambled. Exhibit A: The factory Hondas of Marquez and Pedrosa crossed the finish line in 13th and 14th places, respectively. Factory Yamaha icon Valentino Rossi finished the day in the medical center, having run off the track on Lap 4 into a bog which grabbed his front tire, held it fast, and ejected him into the tire wall, concussed, dazed and confused. While Lorenzo won going away, the big story was Aleix Espargaro, who drove his satellite Forward Yamaha from a tenth place start to a thrilling second place finish over Cal Crutchlow, pipped once again, and his factory Ducati. In retrospect, this may have been the all-time high water mark of the entire Forward Racing project, now in tatters, desperately trying to finish the season, its owner under indictment and Toni Elias now occupying the #2 seat behind poor Loris Baz.

Austria Yes, Indiana No

IMSThe odds finally caught up with the Indianapolis Motor Speedway prior to Misano, when the provisional 2016 calendar was released. Gone was the Red Bull Indianapolis Grand Prix, voted the best round of the season just the previous year. In its place will be The Austrian Grand Prix, to be run at the Red Bull Ring in Spielberg, roughly 100 miles southwest of Vienna. With but nine turns per lap, it seems likely to favor the Yamahas and Ducatis. The Hoosier in me is screaming “not a very interesting layout,” but we shall save that observation for next year.

A second transatlantic crossing, with Laguna Seca having been scratched from the calendar in 2014, has always been expensive, and has seemed a long way to go for not much. The Motor Speedway is cool if you enjoy watching four-wheeled vehicles going fast and turning left, but the infield section, flat as a board, was never great for bikes. Despite drawing 60-70,000 fans, the stands always looked three- quarters empty, due to the fact that they were always three-quarters empty. The real shame in all this is that it undoubtedly means the demise of the MotoAmerica round in Indy as well as curtains for the AMA Indy Mile at the fairgrounds, which Midwestern racing fans will tell you was one of the finest events in all of motorcycle racing.

If Carmelo Ezpeleta has his way, the calendar will grow to 20 rounds later this decade. If the United States were a better market for the manufacturers, promoters in this country would figure out a way to put together a three race American round consisting of Laguna, Austin and Indianapolis early in the season, with the Pacific flyaway bookending it in the fall. Instead, the grid is likely to find itself schlepping to places like Thailand, Finland (???) and even ultra-ambitious Kazakhstan. Yikes.Kazakhstan

Your Weekend Forecast

As of Tuesday evening, the chances for rain in metropolitan Alcañiz this weekend are zero, with temps hovering around 80ºF. With no rain in the forecast, the Aliens are likely to control things, as much as things can be controlled at 200 mph on two wheels. Look for Rossi to lay back a little to watch Marquez and Lorenzo beat each other’s brains in. With Marquez hungry and Lorenzo desperate, Rossi can play tortoise, keeping his eye on the big picture. With autumn coming into view, Jorge Lorenzo enjoys no such luxury.

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MotoGP 2015 San Marino Results

September 13, 2015

The Misano preview article never made it to WordPress.  Enjoy it here.

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Lorenzo title hopes damaged as Rossi extends championship lead

As Round 13 of the 2015 MotoGP championship got underway today, the racing gods were thoroughly bored, watching Jorge Lorenzo put another old fashioned Misano beatdown on rival teammate Valentino Rossi and just plain rival Marc Marquez. So they decided to have a little fun, turning on the rain around Lap 6 and turning it off again during Lap 16, forcing a double flag-to-flag affair for the first time in recent memory. When the laughs died down, Marc Marquez had a win, two Brits finished on the podium, Rossi extended his championship lead, and Jorge Lorenzo was in the medical center getting x-rays.

The weekend practice sheets led us to believe that today’s race would be another Lorenzo/Marquez wrestling match, and that Marquez, and the world, would be in trouble if Lorenzo got away early. Which is exactly what happened, Lorenzo and his Yamaha Z1 going metronomic in the lead halfway through Lap 1. The expected parade dissolved during Lap 6, when the rain flag came out.  Jorge-Lorenzo-Smile-HD

Most of the riders entered the pits at the end of the lap, leaving the three Alien leaders gingerly pushing their machines over the new and an increasingly-soaked racing surface, upon which they had had exactly zero minutes of wet practice. At the end of Lap 7 the three leaders entered the pits, jumped on their wet bikes, and headed back out. Let the record show that factory Ducati #2 Andrea Dovizioso led the race at the end of Lap 7 while Tech 3 Yamaha’s Bradley Smith led after eight, the first MotoGP lap he has led in his career.

There is no communication between riders and their garages during races, meaning that in flag-to-flag affairs it is solely up to the rider to decide when to change bikes. On a day like today, with the weather playing tricks, it was the timing of the pit stops that ultimately decided the finish order. Mercifully, it was not another of those the-race-is-decided-on-Saturday things; today, the race was decided on track, specifically inside the helmets of the riders.

Decisions, Decisions

Thus far, we know the bulk of the field changed at the end of Lap 6, the three leaders waiting until a very pivotal Lap 7, in which Mark VDS Brit Scott Redding had a small lowside which convinced him to change to his wet bike and led to an almost-three minute lap. Redding changed back to slicks on Lap 14. Parenthetically, Marquez went back to his dry bike on Lap 18 while the two factory Yamahas, rubber flying off their front tires like shrapnel, ignored their pit boards and stayed out, Lorenzo finally making the change on Lap 21 and Rossi on Lap 22.

BSmithThe biggest decision of the day, however, was a non-decision. Smith, who has shown steady improvement each year during his MotoGP tenure, never did enter the pits and rode the entire race on slicks. This led to some interesting lap times in the middle of the race (2:12 on Lap 14) but saved him an immense amount of time not changing bikes and strolling down pit lane twice. In fact, as evidenced by the startling fourth place finish today of Loris Baz on the Forward Yamaha, it would be interesting to compare today’s finishing order with the number of laps each non-Alien rider spent on their wet bikes. Surely Smith, Redding and Baz were the most daring riders today, spending the bulk of a damp Sunday afternoon on slicks.

Late in the Day

And so it was that Jorge Lorenzo, who can be excused for having expected a bit of a cakewalk today, started Lap 22 from pit lane on cold slicks, trailing a bunch of riders, amongst them Rossi, who had yet to pit. And so it was that Lorenzo, pushing to the max trying to chase down the Italian, lost the front in Turn 15, got launched into thin air, and followed his destroyed bike on a painful high-speed fustercluck through the gravel, his day, and possibly his season, lying in ruins around him. He pounded his right hand into the gravel twice in sheer frustration. Later, it was reported he was in the medical center getting x-rays on, among other things, his right hand.

Lorenzo’s string of podiums at Misano, intact since 2007, fell by the wayside in the worst way imaginable. Meanwhile, teammate Rossi, who finished the day in a triumphant (?) fifth place, saw his personal string of podiums end at 16, but in a good way. His 11 points today stretched his margin over Lorenzo to 23 with but five rounds remaining. He escaped Misano, which has been all but owned by Lorenzo for most of a decade, intact. And if Lorenzo has physical issues that are not fully resolved within two weeks at Aragon, Rossi could be sitting in the catbird seat.

RossiWe should not overlook Marc Marquez, who today earned perhaps the most meaningless win of his career. He actually dominated the conditions, timing his pit entries perfectly, having learned the Lesson of Aragon 2014, when he stayed out way too long and ultimately crashed out. Surely, his fans around the world, joined by Rossi and his massive worldwide following, hope the young Catalan runs the table this year. A strong finish to the season will make it that much harder for Lorenzo to earn the points he will need to interfere with Rossi’s 10th world championship.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Loris Baz, whose fourth place finish was the best result for any open class rider this year, did nothing to hurt his rumored switch to Avintia Racing next year. He has pretty much locked up the open class title for the season. The tall 22 year-old Frenchman looks like anything but a MotoGP rider—shades of Marco Simoncelli—but has had a surprisingly successful debut season in MotoGP. Moving up to Avintia, where he might actually get paid, would be a nice payoff for a nice guy.

The factory and Pramac Ducati teams, joined by wildcard Michele Pirro, have seen better days on their home soil. Pirro, who qualified fifth, found himself with deal-breaking electronics issues early, and had to start the race on his wet bike; never quite getting things sorted out, his day ending for good on Lap 10. Suddenly fearsome Danilo Petrucci, who podiumed last time out in the rain, enjoyed a top ten start and beat factory Andreas Iannone and Dovizioso to the finish again, the three finishing 6-7-8 respectively. (Yonny Hernandez crashed his Pramac entry on Lap 10 and collected an oblivious Alex de Angelis, the one Italian rider who is actually from San Marino, adding to his season of woe.) Dani Pedrosa, Alien Emeritus, drove his Repsol Honda to a nondescript ninth place finish, eclipsing Aleix Espargaro and his Suzuki Ecstar by 2/10ths of a second.

Next Up: Aragon

It will be two weeks until the grid descends upon dusty, ancient Aragon, then another fortnight until the frantic three-races-in-three-weeks Pacific flyaway. One hopes that the racing gods got their share of belly laughs today and will have the decency to lay off for the rest of the season. By bolstering the belief of Italian Catholics that God is an Italian Catholic, millions of Rossi fans around the world are giving thanks tonight for Valentino and the heavenly mysteries that brought rain to eastern Italy for twenty minutes on a Sunday afternoon in September.

Misano Top Ten 2015

Top Ten Year to Date

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