Posts Tagged ‘MotoGP 2018’

Why My Hypothesis is Looking Bad After Eight Rounds 07022018

July 2, 2018

© Bruce Allen July 2, 2018

My main pre-season prediction was that the eventual winner of the 2018 chase would accumulate fewer than 298 points. This was based on intuition that the difference in the bikes has been reduced and the overall quality of the riders, at least the top 18, has improved. Despite there being an extra round in 2018, I knew there would be one extra rider, which evened that out. I also figured the top five would be close again, the way they were last year. I wanted Andrea Dovizioso to give Marquez a run for his money again in 2018. And I even had Dani Pedrosa as a dark horse to win it all in 2018. In general, my thinking was that there would be fewer points available to the top five than there were last year when Marquez collected 298 points.

I could hardly have been more wrong. My primary thesis, that, outside of the top five, the top 18 were stronger than their 2017 counterparts, actually is proving itself correct. I can update the spreadsheet after every round. But I failed to take into account how Marc Marquez is punishing the field. Of the six rounds he’s finished in the points, he has collected 140 of 150 points available to him. Four wins in eight rounds, two seconds. Not like last year at all.

I failed to consider the possibility that 2017 was an outlier year for Andrea Dovizioso who, after having won two races in eight years, would go on to win six races in 2017, and that his accomplishment was likely a fluke rather than a matter of evolution of bike and rider. Evolution doesn’t work that quickly. Here’s the chart after eight rounds.

MOTOGP SPREADSHEETJPG

Several points stand out. The top five have, indeed, accumulated fewer points than last year, 525 to 492. The median number of total points year-to-date has risen from 34 to 41, again supporting the hypothesis. Riders 6-15 are smoking their 2017 counterparts 537 – 469. Jorge Lorenzo took 50 points off the board in two rounds. But Marquez is scoring a much higher-than-expected percentage of total points, killing the hypothesis. His win at Assen raised his projected total for the year from 312 to 333, which is a good measure of the impact of a win.

The chart shows what poor years Andrea Dovizioso and Dani Pedrosa are having, as well as the exemplary seasons being put in by Marquez, Andrea Iannone, Pol Espargaro and Alex Rins, who leads the Most Improved Rider competition after eight despite a host of DNFs.

At his current rate, Marquez is tracking to score 333 points for the year. This compares to his 298 last year and Rossi’s record 373 points in 2008. Roughly midway, or just another spectacular season of racing among the yachting class.

Provisional 2018 MotoGP Calendar Released

September 13, 2017

2018 Provisional FIM calendar

19 rounds. From the 18th of March to the 18th of November.  Eight full months. A single back-to-back–Brno and Austria–until the flyaway rounds.  Thailand shoehorned in between Aragon and Motegi, with two weeks on either side.  OK, I guess.  Perhaps the teams can leave some of their shish in Thailand and not have to schlep it all over creation again a week later.

The “Circuit to be announced” stuff around the British GP is becoming hilarious. As if Ebbw Vale is EVER going to get built. Personally, I see no reason why the government needs to help fund a racetrack that will have a temporarily nice effect on the local economy during construction but then will have a few low-wage jobs a few times a year thereafter. In a region that has perhaps 20 really nice days a year.

Surveying the venues, the one that looks out of place is Austin. The US is a terrible market for MotoGP and motorcycles in general. Plus Marc Marquez wins every time out.  I love the track itself, despite its being in Texas and the presumptuousness of its name (COTA) and motto (Get thrown off a mechanical bull on Saturday night!). Not sure about the length of the current contract between Dorna and the Texas folks, but I’d be reluctant to bank on it continuing much longer.

In the spirit of internationalism, we will ignore the location of Rio Hondo, a million miles from nowhere, in favor of extending a hand to our Latin brothers, who buy a lot of motorcycles and have only soccer to look forward to the rest of the year.

2018 is the year, I believe, when I finally convince the powers that be at Motorcycle.com to cough up the expenses for a Brno/Spielberg junket next summer. What this racing stuff needs is more local color, more interviews, more in-person photography, better writing…the list goes on and on. A reward for ten years of loyal performance does not seem out of order.