At this point I’m not sure why I continue to pursue this nugget; at one time, it seemed important.
For this final exercise I went back and did calculations after Jerez, Round 4. Back in grad school, some professor would have wanted to know the correlation coefficient between the final standings (and point totals), compared to the projections from early in the season. Before doing the math, I can tell you that Round 4 is too early in the season to try to predict this stuff, other than Marquez wins.. Three one-off rounds and the first European round. Definitely would have gotten better correlations after, say, Catalunya or Mugello.
Nonetheless, here are the final results, showing which riders out-performed their early-season expectations and which riders failed to do so. And, for regular readers, you will undoubtedly notice the relative standings of Johann Zarco and Alex Rins early in the year when I started banging on about Rins. Rins was an Alien for the last third of the season. I suspect he may pick up where he left off come March. His new teammate, Joan Mir, is about a year or two behind him. Ballers. Aliens-in-Waiting.
Points Since Jerez Age in 2019
Marquez 251 26A
Dovizioso 199 33A
Rossi 158 40
Rins 153 24A
Viñales 143 24A
Petrucci 110 29
Zarco 100 29
Iannone 86 30
So, who are the Aliens at this moment, besides Marquez and Dovizioso? Rossi? Vinales? Lorenzo? I have left Crutchlow and Lorenzo off this list due to their injuries and whining. It is my contention that the Alien class as of November 2018 includes Marquez, the aging Dovizioso, Viñales and Rins. The usual caveat applies–Marquez wins the next three MotoGP titles. But otherwise they’re all Aliens now. My nomination of Rins is premature, but there it is. And I’m STILL not sold on Maverick Viñales.
It is worth noting that Fabio Quartararo, newly promoted to the Petronas Yamaha MotoGP team, turns 20 in April. Bagnaia and Mir are 21, and Oliveira is 23. The Alien class will look radically different three years from now than it does today. I think Johann Zarco is too old to start trying to make an Alien run, especially on the KTM. I expect he could be very fast on the Ducati. And no one will successfully accuse either Petrucci or Iannone of being Aliens, now or ever; hell, Petrucci has never even won a race.
At the top of the MotoGP food chain, the times they are a-changin’.
Tags: alex rins, andrea iannone, Aprilia, danilo petrucci, Ducati, Honda, KTM, Marc Marquez, maverick vinales, valentino rossi, Yamaha
Late-Braking MotoGP 
November 21, 2018 at 12:43 pm |
Rossi is years past his prime, but he did take 3rd in the championship, far better than several of your other aliens. I’d suspect he can maintain a 3rd place next year, no better and maybe as low as 5th, but no worse. Vinales showed no consistency last year, and is suspect, in my opinion, and as you said.
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November 21, 2018 at 1:51 pm |
Interesting analysis Brucey.
I hope Zarco at KTM can be as Dovi at Ducati. Pay some dues during the development years, then have a late blossom into the Alien ranks.
As you’ve said, the young guns are ballers. We should have some great racing for years to come.
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November 21, 2018 at 2:43 pm |
Where the heck am I?! Is this the comments section?
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