Late-Braking MotoGP

© Bruce Allen

This look at the record laps at each of the circuits on the calendar is surprisingly informative. As long as you buy in to the notion that a hot pole lap on Saturday has much to do, in the first four rows, with the eventual outcome of the race. Any errors herein, unfortunately, are mine.

We re-sort the chart to show track records by rider, as follows:

Track records, sorted by manufacturer. Honda owns more records than Yamaha and Ducati combined. Marquez holds 80% of those.

Track records, sorted by year. Riders perform better after their first contract year, as their familiarity with the bike grows. Two things emerge from this. One, Lorenzo laid down a hellified qualifying lap at Phillip Island in 2013, as did Marquez in Argentina in 2014. The control ECU and Michelins were introduced in 2016, and it took until this year for the riders and teams to adjust. On Bridgestones in 2015, the riders set some records that may stand for awhile.

Condensing the above chart, to illustrate my assertion that track records would fall like dominoes in 2018:

This is the most telling of the previous charts, in that it proves I was right. 2018 was a banner year for track records. Figures lie and liars figure. All 8 of the records taken out this year occurred during the previous years. It may be that 2015 was a better year, but the records have been lost. Riders likely to flirt with track records next season include Marquez. Observe Andrea Dovizioso, whose name is curiously absent from the charts. Maverick Vinales, perhaps, also absent from the chart, if the Valencia test wasn’t a fluke, etc. Lorenzo is a great qualifier and may appear near the top late in the year; next year (2020) is more likely. Crutchlow or Rossi, I guess. Not Zarco. Not Iannone. Maybe a Petrucci or a Rins, maybe Jack Miller rips off a hot one at Assen. None of the rookies are serious threats in 2019.

I see fewer track records being set in 2019 than this past year. Too many musical chairs, too many rookies on top bikes. Too many KTMs and Aprilias. Five different riders set records in 2018; fewer will do so in 2019. I think Suzuki could get one in 2019, and that could involve either of their riders. As I’ve stated here before, Joan Mir is going to be an Alien. We will look at the rookie records after next year and compare them to rookie records for Marquez, Lorenzo, Rossi, Pedrosa and Casey Stoner, see if there are any fast movers coming up under the radar.

Tags: andrea iannone, Cal Crutchlow, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, valentino rossi

This entry was posted on November 23, 2018 at 7:57 am and is filed under Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Moto, Moto2, MotoGP, MotoGP 2018, Motogp testing, MotoGP Valencia, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News, The grand prix of Valencia, Valencia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.