Archive for the ‘Moto’ Category

MotoGP 2017 Rio Hondo Preview

April 4, 2017

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Repsol, LCR Teams Anxious for Argentina

Having left the wide-open spaces of the Persian Gulf, The Greatest Show on Two Wheels heads south of the equator to Termas de Rio Hondo, Argentina.  Round Two of the tantalizing 2017 season, The Gran Premio Motul de la República Argentina, promises to answer a few questions that popped up in the desert two weeks ago.  The various and sundry Honda teams, especially, have a few things to prove at this very RC213V-friendly circuit.  But is the 2017 bike up to it? 

What we know now that we didn’t know two weeks ago is how Marc Marquez, Dani Pedrosa and Cal Crutchlow ended up with the medium front Michelin instead of the hard option.  All three blame Michelin for advising them to make the change, which did not work.  Marquez and Pedrosa had to nurse their fronts to respectable 4th and 5th places, respectively, while Crutchlow, also blaming his front tire. crashed out of what could have been a meaningful haul of points.  Twice.  Oh, and before I forget, Maverick Vinales won his first GP on the factory Yamaha and appears to be the next anointed rider.

Props to Aleix Espargaro, who put his Aprilia in sixth place, and one Jack Miller, who placed eighth on the Marc VDS Honda, punking Alex Rins at the finish. Jonas Folger made the top ten, while suddenly everyone is on the Johann Zarco bandwagon for his seven superlative laps at the start.

We are temporarily suspending the Alien status of Jorge Lorenzo until he cracks the top five in a race.  Or the standings.  Whichever comes first.  This suspension, it appears, could last up to two years.   Let’s see how he does Down South.

Tranches Anyone?

Here’s an early look at how my entrants (rider/bike) break down.  This will be a work in progress as we approach Valencia. We would love to hear how yours differ.  Not really, but go ahead anyway.

Tranche 1:  Vinales, Marquez, Dovizioso, Rossi

Tranche 2:  Pedrosa, Iannone, Crutchlow, Bautista

Tranche 3:  Petrucci, Lorenzo, Zarco, (Rins), Miller, Barbera, A Espargaro

Tranche 4:  Baz, Redding, P Espargaro, Folger

Tranche 5:  Smith, Lowes, Rabat, Abraham

Once again, I may have let Qatar over-influence me.  And before anyone gets too whooped up, these factor in the quality of the bike as well.  Bradley Smith is a 3 or a 4 on the Tech 3 Yamaha but a 5 on the first iteration of the KTM.  I’m optimistic about both Bautista and Barbera on the GP16.  Lorenzo is probably under-ranked and Bautista perhaps over-ranked.  I’m taking a pass on criticism about the rookie rankings until we get to Europe in May.

“I hope that it’s the first and the last of this year.”  

This is Suzuki’s Andrea Iannone, referring to his unforced crash out of a possible podium in Qatar, as quoted elsewhere.  I would argue that this is possibly the most hilarious statement we will hear this season.  Dude crashed out of six of his 14 starts last year, some with collateral damage to other riders.  His riding style is aggressive.  He shatters limbs.  After last season, he has one iota of risk aversion in his whole body, compared to none at all previously.  All these things cost him the job on the factory Ducati.  I expressed concern at the time that he might attempt to over-ride the Suzuki, with similar results.  But at least he got the first part right. 

Recent History at Rio Hondo

Marquez memorably acquainted himself with the place in 2014 when the track first opened.  He strolled around in 14th place during FP1, possibly on a Derbi Bullet 50, then cinched everything up, mounted his bike, lowered his visor, and topped the charts in FP2, FP3, FP4, Q2, the warm-up practice and, finally, the race itself.  This was his second of ten consecutive wins to open the memorable 2014 season.

2015 was the year Rossi and Marquez came together late in the race, with Marquez going down and out in what would become his worst premier class season to date.  He had started well from pole and appeared to be disappearing early but couldn’t get away. Rossi had started eighth, but found something in the middle of the race (“Here comes Rossi!”) while Marquez’s rear tire was busy decomposing beneath him. It was an all-Italian podium, with Spaniards sucking wind down on the tarmac.  Lorenzo, never a factor that day, would come back later in the year for his third title.

Last year was the Michelin fiasco, the mandatory mid-race pit stop, Tito Rabat getting in front of Rossi as he re-entered the race, allowing Marquez to get away. (Rossi said his #2 bike simply wasn’t as fast as his #1.)  After the restart, he would be joined on the podium by Rossi and Pedrosa.

It was also the day Iannone took himself and teammate Dovizioso out of podium contention with the Bonehead Move of the Year, the winner by an eyelash over himself and his similar takedown of Lorenzo in Barcelona later in the season.  (Finishing third in the BMY competition was Dani Pedrosa, who accidentally T-boned Dovizioso at Austin in Round 3.)

Quick Hitters

So now we have another Pacific round, this one in Thailand beginning next year. Hurray. The Thai papers are full of allegations of government malfeasance in securing the rights.  Whatever.  All I can tell you about the Grand Prix of Thailand is that it will be hot, and crowded.  Rest assured that we will have our crack research staff on this like a cheap suit once, um, Valencia is out of the way.

Many readers will be amped over the news that potential ROY Alex Rins broke his ankle in training last week.  This strengthens the hands of those holding Zarco and even Folger cards.  Someone who’s not German please tell me why I should root for Jonas Folger.  And before you know it some writers are going to start referring to Sam Lowes as “plucky.”

Ezpeleta & Co have now dumped the ridiculous “points” system that arguably cost Valentino Rossi the 2015 title.  (I wouldn’t argue that, but others would.)  They replaced a former system deemed arbitrary with a different arbitrary system and have now returned to the original arbitrary system. These guys need more to do.

Your Weekend Forecast

This is Marquez land.  He is two-for-three in races here, having been knocked out of the third.  He finished fourth last time out in Qatar due to tire issues decided, in effect, by Michelin.  Unlikely to happen again.  He loves this place, where the Hondas have historically done well.  Cal Crutchlow is licking his chops. Vinales appears unperturbed.  Rossi is Rossi, and Lorenzo seems as nervous as a nun in a cucumber patch.  Pedrosa and Dovizioso sit together in a corner smiling.

Weather in greater Termas de Rio Hondo is expected to be hot and wet on Friday, with conditions improving on Saturday and Sunday.  This is shaping up to be one of those races where the season could be more easily lost than won.  For several riders, it means finishing the race and getting back in the points chase, Cal.  For those at the bottom of the food chain it means collecting data and beating your teammate.  For the top five, it means take no stupid chances.  It might possibly mean watching Maverick lay down a vapor trail.  One hopes not.

Not this week.  Not in Marquez land.

 

 

MotoGP 2017 Qatar Results

March 26, 2017

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Maverick Viñales Starts his Own Era 

Movistar Yamaha’s new kid on the block, Maverick Viñales, did to the field of the 2017 Grand Prix of Qatar what he’s done ever since he first placed his bum on the saddle of the YZR-M1 last November.  He ended the day at the top of the timesheets, having outdueled factory Ducati #1 Andrea Dovizioso over the last eight laps of the race.  In the process, he took the lead in the 2017 championship and initiated what is likely to become known as The Viñales Years. 

Saturday Washout

Weather conditions on Saturday evening in metropolitan Doha area were so foul that FP4, Q1, and Q2 were all scrubbed, leaving the combined results from the three completed practices as a proxy for the starting grid, to the immense dismay of Valentino Rossi, Jorge Lorenzo, Alex Rins and, one expects, Cal Crutchlow.  Scott Redding, having led QP3, was overheard wandering the paddock in the wee hours, sniffing about how he COULD have taken the pole and it’s just so unfair.

Starting Grid from QTimes.JPG

Whatever.  Behind the front row, at least, the starting grid was a random collection of hardware and talent.  An unexpected way to start the season.  In an unfriendly locale, with Aliens Rossi and Lorenzo pedaling hard on the fourth row. And the impudent Johann Zarco comfortably seated in fourth. 

Rain in the Desert

The weather was bad enough on Saturday to scrub everything in all classes, a veritable gullywasher of a day.  And here I thought the ONLY good thing about racing here is that at least you don’t have to worry about rain.  Sunday came along with much more teasing kinds of conditions–spitting rain, breezy, high humidity, scudding clouds.  Just as the Moto2 tilt (won by Franco Morbidelli for his first Moto2 victory) was ending, it started sprinkling.

Dorna and FIM executives began hemming and hawing.  Riders started calling their garages for tires, making changes on the track.  The bikes left the track, the bikes re-entered the track.  The race was shortened from 22 to 21 laps, then to 20 with two warm-up laps, by which time the rain had mostly stopped.  Several riders watched the red lights go out with tires they had never, or barely, ridden, traction and wear issues all over the place.  Madness was in the air.

A Rookie Leads at the Start

Andrea Iannone won the hole shot, but as the field headed towards Turns 2 and 3 one of the Tech 3 Yamahas materialized at the front, accompanied by the animated shouting of announcer Nick Harris, “Johann Zarco leads the Grand Prix of Qatar!”   Madness! Zarco was followed in close order by Marc Marquez, Iannone, Andrea Dovizioso on the Ducati, and Viñales, who was keeping his powder dry within shouting distance of the front.

By Lap 6, Zarco was looking very relaxed, trailed by Dovizioso, Marquez, Iannone, Viñales and, of all people, Valentino Rossi, who had started 10th but worked himself up close to the lead group.  The law of averages suddenly made its presence felt, as Zarco crashed out of the lead on Lap 7.  Then there were five.  Having picked my boy Cal Crutchlow to finish on the podium today, he took revenge on me for past insults, real and imagined, by crashing out on Lap 4.  Crashlow got back up and immediately crashed again on his Lap 5 for good measure.

Viñales Prevails

With Dovizioso leading by mid-race, Iannone and Marquez traded a little paint here and there, just like the old days, while the two factory Yamahas lurked in fourth and fifth places.  Almost on cue, on Lap 10 Iannone had an unforced lowside in Turn 7 and crashed out of podium contention.

The last eight laps were outstanding.  While Marquez faded to fourth, never appearing totally comfortable with his tires, Dovi and Viñales began enjoying a number of close encounters, Rossi hanging back, appearing to wait for something to happen in front of him.  Viñales would take the lead around Turn 6 and keep it through Turn 16, after which Dovizioso would blow by him on the main straight and take the lead heading into Turn 1.  This continued until the two riders entered Turn 1 on the last lap with Viñales in the lead.  He held it all the way, in and through Turn 16, and took the win by half a second.  A legend, as the expression goes, is born.

Elsewhere on the Grid

Dani Pedrosa has had worse days than today.  With little expected from him, he qualified seventh, spent the early part of the race in mid-pack, then bided his time as guys started falling off in front of him, ultimately finishing fifth.  Shades of Colin Edwards late in his career.  Aleix Espargaro, in perhaps the best ride of the day, flogged his factory Aprilia from 15th position at the start to sixth at the finish, the best result for the team since they re-entered MotoGP last year.  Scott Redding scored a heartening seventh on his Ducati GP16, Jack Miller (we are officially amazed) was eighth on the Marc VDS Honda, and my boy Alex Rins held onto his Suzuki well enough all day for ninth place, becoming the leading rookie for the season.

For other riders, the 2017 opener was forgettable.  Crashers include Crutchlow (2), Iannone, Zarco and Bautista, while Danilo Petucci had to retire his GP17 with mechanical issues.  The KTM team of Pol Espargaro and Bradley Smith was saved from the indignity of finishing last and next-to-last only by the futility of Sam Lowes, who delivered his own Aprilia to the finish line some 40 seconds behind teammate Aleix, and was the last rider to cross the line.  Out of the points and, hopefully, dissuaded from any illusion that he might score more than 20 points all year.

We would be derelict in our reportorial duties were we to fail to mention that triple world champion Jorge Lorenzo, in his debut with his new Italian employer, started 12th, had four guys in front of him crash out or retire, and finished 11th, 20 seconds behind teammate Dovizioso.  We know rain gives Jorge the yips.  Now, it appears that high humidity does the same thing.  And, lest readers assume this is just a Qatarian anomaly, it is true that Lorenzo won here last year from pole.  Just sayin’.

The Big Picture

Having been burned in the past, we must be careful to draw too many conclusions from what occurred tonight.  We learned, or confirmed our suspicions about, several things:

  • Maverick Viñales is a baller.
  • Valentino Rossi at age 38 is about as good as anyone out there.
  • The Suzuki can compete for wins.
  • Andrea Dovizioso is the #1 rider on the factory Ducati team.
  • We have been underestimating Johann Zarco since November.

In two weeks the grid heads off to Argentina for its annual Bungle in the Jungle.  Rio Hondo is a Honda-friendly circuit, as is Austin two weeks later.  Marc Marquez should win the next two races.  If, instead, Maverick Viñales should win either, MotoGP is likely to have a new champion this year.  And if it does, you can tell your grandkids you watched Maverick win the very first race of The Viñales Years.

 

 

MotoGP 2017 Qatar Preview

March 21, 2017

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Is This Maverick Viñales the Real Deal? 

Welcome, everyone, to the 2017 presentation of MotoGP, The Greatest Show on Earth now that the circus has folded.  The first year of six manufacturers, three of which have an honest shot at the title.  And the year fans will likely remember not for the debut of an upstart KTM team, but for the introduction of Yamaha’s Apparent Next Great Modern Rider, Maverick Viñales, to polite society. 

Of course, it is way early to lay this title on him.  Call me a frontrunner.  Viñales completed his demolition of the offseason by casually finishing first in Qatar.  He, Andrea Dovizioso and, surprisingly, Dani Pedrosa have been the only contenders not having visible or audible (read: complaining) problems adjusting to this year’s machines.  Seems I may have been premature suggesting Dani Pedrosa is vectoring down if one ignores the fact that he gets hurt every year.  Honda’s decision to develop their new big bang engine has coincided with Viñales’ sudden arrival on the M-1, putting defending champion Marc Marquez’s title in jeopardy.  Marquez crashed three times on Sunday in final Qatar testing. Pedrosa (and Crutchlow) seem to be adjusting just fine.

Then there’s €46, Valentino Rossi, reminiscent of Mario Andretti in his later years at the Indy 500, “slowing down” in the back straight.  He is not a contender right now, entering the 2017 season.  But Rossi defines the expression “a guy who shows up on Sunday.” He will contend, as the season grinds away, unless he gets overly aggressive early in the year and gives away points sliding through the kitty litter.

Former teammate Jorge Lorenzo’s switch to Ducati has been predictably difficult, but, like Rossi, he’s an Alien, capable of wondrous things on two wheels.  Some people will take offense when I point out that Rossi has been seeking his 10th world championship since 2010.  He would probably do better on a one year contract–now or never.  Win or bin.  Etc.

In 2015, defending champ Marc Marquez failed to repeat.  In 2016, defending champ Jorge Lorenzo failed to repeat.   If Marquez is destined to lose his title this season, most people assume it will be to Viñales.  As a fan, I am looking forward to those two giving us a show every time out.  With four years in the saddle, I like Marquez to repeat.  He will ride an inferior bike to the title over Viñales because young Maverick is going to get overly excited.  Just like rookie Lorenzo in 2008.  You and I know what happens when that occurs.

Marquez vs Vinales

Keeping them honest, you’ve got your Crutchlow, your Dovizioso, your Iannone, your Bautista (?!), and this Jonas Folger fella, who, alongside teammate Johann Zarco, have set themselves up as the top Moto2 grads thus far, on the Monster Tech 3 Yamaha team.  I wish Folger well and drop the phrase “flash in the pan” only for its descriptive value.  Alex Rins, I feel, belongs in the top ten. The rest of the field will all find something to brag about.  “Hey, so we ran 10th at San Marino, y’know, which isn’t so terribly bad for a brand-new team.”  Kidding, kidding.  (All the Aliens must have crashed out.) 

Recent History at Losail

Back in 2014, everyone was all whooped up about Marc Marquez, who, as a rookie in 2013, had imposed his will upon the field, taken advantage of injuries to Jorge Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa, and stormed to the title in front of a delirious crowd at Valencia in November.  Among the records he would establish in 2014 were most wins in a season, youngest rider to repeat as world champion, and the most poles. 

A mere six weeks after breaking his leg in the pre-season, Marquez barely held off a resurgent Valentino Rossi for the season-opening win, with Dani Pedrosa sneaking onto the podium in third place.  Double world champion Jorge Lorenzo, who had been singing the blues for months, crashed out of the lead on Lap 1 and subsequently faced an uphill struggle the entire season.

In his 313th grand prix start, Rossi delivered a vintage performance in the 2015 season opener, going knives-in-a-phone booth with factory Ducati #1 Andrea Dovizioso all night before punking his compatriot by 17/100ths of a second to take the lead in the title chase for the first time since, well, 2010.  Marquez got pushed way wide into the gravel on Lap 1, ultimately finishing fifth.

Both factory Ducatis ended up on the all-Italian podium, leading to grossly overinflated expectations for Maniac Joe Iannone and a persistent golden halo resting upon the brow of one Gigi Dall’Igna.  Here’s my favorite bit from the 2015 post mortem: “(Cal) had taken time out of his busy schedule, during a TV interview, to flame Mike di Meglio of Avintia Racing for getting in his way during, like, FP1. Cal has morphed from one of the charming, likable hard-luck guys on the grid to another mid-level clanging gong, and needs to take a nap.”  Lorenzo finished a disappointing fourth that night. 

Yamaha must have known 2016 would be Jorge Lorenzo’s last year with the team.  Coming off his third world championship in 2015, he had won that year’s opener, enhancing the swagger amongst his declining number of fans, who believed a fourth title might be in the offing in 2016.

Last year’s Commercial Bank Grand Prix of Qatar marked the beginning of the newest era in MotoGP, that of Michelin tires and a standard ECU across the grid.  In the run-up to the race, hopes that some new faces would emerge from the pack and find their way to the podium had been building.  Under the lights of Losail, however, defending champion Lorenzo held serve for Yamaha against a strong challenge from Andrea Dovizioso and Marc Marquez; the Usual Suspects once again asserted their dominance.  At the time, the wager that nine different riders would ultimately win races that year would have seemed deranged.

And So Here We Are

At the dawn of another testosterone-pumping MotoGP season, there is optimism everywhere.  The first formal practices of the year loom under the eerie spotlights in the desert.  For all three classes.  Moto3 and Moto2 both promise tons of effervescent wheel-to-wheel stuff, the numbers and aggressiveness of the riders well above the relatively staid comportment, and smaller grids, of the premier class.

With four of its top riders having graduated to the majors, Moto2 appears to be wide open, with the likes of veteran Thomas Luthi and…gasp…Alex Marquez having encouraging off-seasons.  There is a surfeit of fast young Italian riders out there, some affiliated with Rossi’s SKY Racing Team VR46, some not.  Malaysians are getting very excited about the prospects for their boy Hafizh Syahrin, who managed a respectable ninth place finish last season and has podium ambitions.  (This is a shout out to the Malaysian National Board of Tourism, which paid for my junket to Sepang in 2014, and for whom I failed to produce the somewhat flowery article requested, in exchange, by The Government.)

Moto3 is simply too much for me.  I love to watch the races but am so unfamiliar with the riders I can’t generate sufficient comedic material to obscure my lack of insight.  Since 2008 I’ve picked up enough about the premier class to more or less keep up, but Moto3 reminds me of the Rat Races they used to hold every year at an American Legion hall in Covington, Kentucky, where you could hardly tell one little racer from another, them piling on top of one another in the corners, occasionally heading the wrong way and such. Lots of yelling, parimutuel-style betting and heavy drinking, all for a good cause.  Moto3 is great fun, but I’m mostly just a spectator.

Sunday Night—S—U—N—D—A—Y!!!

Sounds like it should be dragsters.  At Losail, more than any other race of the season, practice sessions and qualifying runs are closely watched and competed, bikes being raced in real anger for the first time since November.  In conditions resembling a moonscape, with two-wheeled missiles between their legs, these guys will go at it for real.  Again.  Qualifying will tell much of the story.  I am unwilling to try to predict a race winner, as Qatar has become a true outlier.  Over the past four seasons, only one race winner here has won the title—Marquez in 2014.

I am willing to predict that, as the red lights go out, the front row will consist of Marquez, Viñales, and Dovizioso, in whatever order you like.

OK–Viñales, by less than two seconds over Marquez.

FINE–Crutchlow third.  Just don’t bet on it.  The race goes off at 2 pm EST Sunday.  We will post results and analysis right here before suppertime.

Let’s start this party.

Michelin MotoGP: Tech and Tires

March 19, 2017

Michelin, the sole provider of tires for the premier class of MotoGP, the crème de la crème of two-wheeled racing, has been beavering away all winter working on new stuff.  Since Bridgestone vacated the premises after the 2015 season, the French monolith has been in charge of rubber and seems to be running stride for stride with the manufacturers and riders entering Year Two.  Better compounds.  More choices.  Bells and whistles.

Along with the rubber work, Michelin has implemented radio technology in the tires which will display, in homes outside the U.S., which compound each rider is using.  The veddy British broadcast crew for the MotoGP video feed includes Dylan Gray working trackside.  Dylan is very good at his job, half of which has suddenly disappeared, as it was Dylan in recent years going on during the last half hour before the start about tire choices. Now, the compounds (three fronts and three rears available at every race) will show on the screen in real time, something of which Dorna is very capable.

With more choices of compound available, this decision by the rider becomes more difficult.  Nine possible configurations to choose from.  Throw out the top two and bottom two and he still has five configurations to figure out.  One hopes the riders will become less inclined to blame the tires for their dismal showing and instead blame themselves for having chosen the wrong tires.  That would be refreshing.

Michelin must be given credit for the resources–human, manufacturing and financial–they are throwing at this program.  The fact that lap times in 2016 were competitive, in the presence of the standard ECU, suggests Michelin was fairly well prepared for last year and totally prepared for this year.  No new circuits on the calendar in 2017, meaning they have data for every track.

233_Michelin_Michelin-Logo-2013-Frame_1

Unless you have a ridiculously spectacular seat at a MotoGP race, I would strongly argue you get much more watching the video feed.  The guys in the broadcast booth are knowledgeable, sure, but they are sometimes guilty of over-sharing.  And loveable Nick Harris is getting along in years.  But the camera work and the on-screen information–revs, lean angles, now tires–is hugely helpful to those poor folks who have to write about this stuff for a living.  I used to bring my laptop to the Indianapolis round and the AP guys would watch the race on my computer.

Thumbs up to Michelin IMO.  MotoGP demands more from riders than any form of automobile racing, and tire choice has become more important.  Michelin is doing their part to see that the two tiny tire patches–all that stand between riders and a sudden visit to the inflatable wall–are the best they can be.  Like offensive linemen in American football, anonymity is a good thing for the tire providers, since the only time you get noticed is when you screw up.  Now, if the riders would just man up.

MotoGP 2017 Season Preview

March 11, 2017

© Bruce Allen  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com 

With the start of the 2017 MotoGP season only weeks away, we take a look ahead at what will be on offer for racing fans this year.  [With clenched teeth, it is hereby affirmed that the opinions contained herein do not necessarily reflect those of the editors, publishers, and/or owners of Motorcycle.com] 

MotoGP is the fastest-growing motorsports flavor on earth.  That it has virtually no presence or accessibility in the US is a poor joke.  It appears the safety-conscious American parents of today are (understandably) reluctant to let their kids, most of them, anyway, learn to ride ATVs and motorbikes when they’re young.  Series organizer Dorna has recognized that a country wishing to develop world-class riders needs to have a formal development program, one of which was implemented in Great Britain just this year.  (Probably because of Cal Crutchlow, The Great English-As-A-First-Language Hope.)  Such leagues have existed in Spain and Italy for decades.

The fact is that the US, for its size, with expensive national marketing costs, doesn’t sell a lot of imported motorcycles, and it’s doubtful that showing more MotoGP races would change that.  So most of us Americans miss out.  Meanwhile the Aussies and Kiwis are all over this stuff, along with Europe and much of Asia.  No more giving up calendar dates in favor of F-1; MotoGP has MoMentum.  No more five weeks off in the middle of the summer, either.

Countries from Thailand and Indonesia to Hungary and Finland are clamoring to host races; pressure on the calendar, with four rounds still in Spain (quietly drumming my fingertips on the tabletop), is intense.  Even money says the calendar goes to 20 dates within five years.  And get rid of Aragon. Or Argentina.

Overall, 2017 has the look of a great season.  The Big Three factory teams of Yamaha, Honda and Ducati will dominate much of the action, as they are home to the Aliens, those riders whose balance and instincts are a step above the rest of the field—Marc Marquez, Valentino Rossi, Jorge Lorenzo and new Alien on the block Maverick Vinales.

Keeping them honest will be the likes of Lorenzo’s teammate and wingman Andrea Dovizioso, Cal Crutchlow on the LCR Honda, and Andrea Iannone on the factory Suzuki.  Alex Rins, on the second factory Suzuki, and Johann Zarco on a Tech 3 satellite Yamaha are the Moto2 grads most likely to podium this year, with Rins looking, to me anyway, like the rookie of the year for 2017.  Another Alien in the making.

Due to last year’s amazing series of races which culminated in nine different riders standing on the top step of the podium, hope springs eternal for the riders and teams in the lower tranches.  Pramac, Aspar and Reale Esponsorama get new old hardware, which could improve prospects for Hectic Hector Barbera and Alvaro Bautista. It would take another Assen-type miracle for either of the Marc VDS riders, Jack Miller and Tito Rabat, to win this year.  (There are also rumblings that the team is planning to fold up its tent in the next year or two, possibly freeing up slots for a satellite Suzuki team.)

Let’s just look at this thing team by team, in alphabetical order.  We will wait until after the season opener to assign tranches to the various riders. 

Aprilia Racing Team Gresini

     Sam Lowes

     Aleix Espargaro

Sam and Aleix need to be prepared for a long season.  Hard luck Espargaro, having lost out to Iannone and Rins at Suzuki, takes a step down joining the Aprilia factory effort, on the upswing but still learning their way around.  The Aprilia and KTM projects are likely to be relatively underfunded for the foreseeable future, slowing their development, and reducing their prospects to those of satellite teams.  For Lowes, somehow promoted from Moto2 despite world-class inconsistency, there will be a lot of badly scuffed leathers.  Espargaro seems to be getting the hang of things more quickly.

For Fausto Gresini, for whom the allure of the premier class is almost irresistible, 2017 will be like shooting 108 on the golf course—enough good shots to keep you coming back, but a vast majority of poor to terrible swings.  Two unfamiliar riders.  A not-quite-competitive bike. Bring a book.

Ducati Factory Team

       Jorge Lorenzo

          Andrea Dovizioso

Going into 2017, the factory Ducati team is the most interesting group on the lot.  The Italians expect plenty, and soon, from their brand new triple world champion.  Jorge Lorenzo, in turn, suggested that the first real day of testing at Sepang was a bit terrifying, but with the help of Stoner and Michele Pirro is adapting to the GP17.  No more getting blitzed in the straights, but he needs to re-learn cornering if he is to avoid “pulling a Rossi,” which seems unlikely, unless he finds himself unable to keep the bike upright. A win in Qatar would do a lot to build his confidence, although the same could be said for every rider on the grid.  Nice writing.

Consistent Andrea Dovizioso has been flying under the radar during the offseason, allowing the cameras to focus on Lorenzo while he plots his strategy to win the title himself.  The latest iteration of the Desmosedici will probably be a great bike, and Dovi has four years in with the factory.  Personally, I would love to see him fighting for a title with Vinales and Marquez.  It could happen.  I think the odds favor him to finish ahead of Lorenzo this season.

The Bologna bunch has recently received a patent for a new jet exhaust valve; don’t know what that’s for unless they’re interested in watching Lorenzo leaving Earth’s orbit.  It has also installed what is said to be an anti-chatter box behind the rider and bent the exhaust pipes and stuff around it.  They are keeping their 2017 fairing secret, but I expect it to resemble the new Yamaha innovation, with the interior wings in a laughable “bulge,” which is expressly forbidden under the rules, yet permitted by some guy named Danny.  “Y’see, it’s not so much of a “bulge” as it is a continuation of the radius…An’ that’s why they’ve blokes like me, to keep things strite, y’know.  Yeah.”

For me, the most interesting question is whether the big red bikes are to be housed in Lorenzo’s Land or Gigi’s Garage.

LCR Honda

Cal Crutchlow

My personal favorite rider.  To disparage, mock, call out and, ultimately, have to eat crow over.  Crashlow won his first two premier class races in 2016, after years of making excuses and broadcasting blame for not having won earlier.  He has burned bridges with Yamaha and Ducati, although he seems to be a fair-haired child for Honda as of late.  Complaining a month ago that “Honda are on it’s back foot,” or some other foolish British verb conjugation, it seems the litany has resumed.  With Vinales added to the mix at the top, I don’t expect Cal to win two races again this season.

Marc VDS Racing Team NFL (Not For Long)

  Jack Miller

          Tito Rabat

The struggling #3 Honda team, at the end of the Sepang test in January, had neither rider fit to ride.  Tito Rabat was a great rider in Moto2 but is proving to be a bust in MotoGP.  Miller, tagged by HRC for greatness at a young age, is proving to be unable to keep the RC213V upright, piling up more serious injuries than The Black Night in the Monty Python classic, not to mention creating acres of shredded, brightly painted fiberglass.

This team could be out of existence in a year or two, providing an opportunity for the moon, the sun and the stars to align in such a way that, as Dani Pedrosa’s contract on the factory Honda team expires, young Miller is standing at the door, kindly showing him the way out.  A national day of celebration will follow in Australia, one in which Livio Suppo, team boss at Repsol Honda, having been out-voted by marketing folks seeking an Australian Alien, may not be participating.

Monster Yamaha Tech 3

Johann Zarco

          Jonas Folger

Hmmm. Two freshmen on the satellite Yamaha team.  Herve Poncharal, team boss, has a thing for Folger; perhaps he likes the cut of his jib, but I haven’t seen much in the way of dominating performances in Moto2 to justify a promotion.  Zarco arrived on the strength of having become the only rider in Moto2 to title twice, consecutively, and is probably disappointed at not having a factory bike of some kind at his disposal.

Both riders will be on steep learning curves this year, although Zarco faired surprisingly well at the Malaysia test.  He and Alex Rins figure to battle it out for rookie of the year honors.

MoviStar Yamaha Factory Team

          Valentino Rossi

          Maverick Vinales

Lin Jarvis’ factory Yamaha team enters the season with GOAT candidate Valentino Rossi and the heir apparent, the aptly-named Maverick Vinales, recently graduated from a two-year riding academy with the factory Suzuki team.  During those two years, he figured out how to win (Silverstone 2016) on a relatively slow bike.  Now that he has earned arguably the fastest complete bike on the grid, great expectations abound.

His “win” at the Sepang test in January affirms those who expect him to title in his first Yamaha season.  Marc Marquez, reigning and triple world champion, has been encouraging this thinking, talking publicly about how concerned he is with Vinales. Intentionally adding to the pressure, getting inside Vinales’ head.  Rossi-like.

Rossi maintains his Alien status, but it will be tested again this year.  (Dani Pedrosa is now an Alien Emeritus.)  He still has the passion and the conditioning and the experience.  But does he have the reflexes and balance he did when he was 28?  I think not.  I think he is also less of a risk taker now than he was a decade ago.  He will undoubtedly win some races this year, but may lose the season contest with his teammate, effectively ending their friendship for all time.  The intra-team competition could tighten significantly, however, if Vinales finds himself cartwheeling through a lot of gravel traps this spring.

Octo Pramac Yakhnich Ducati

      Danilo Petrucci (GP17)

          Cheesed Off Scott Redding (GP16)

The #2 Ducati team.  Danilo Petrucci, the burly ex-cop, may find himself in the mix once in a while (probably in the rain) this season onboard the GP17 he won fair and square in the intra-team competition with Scott Redding last year.  Redding, sadly, will not be in the mix on his GP16, as he seems unable to get over the hump in the premier class after a glittering (?) run in Moto2.  With three name sponsors, it seems likely the team will have plenty of frames and fairings to replace for Redding as he goes bumping around the tracks of the world, muttering about how it just isn’t fair.

Pull & Bear Aspar Team Ducati

Alvaro Bautista (GP16)

Karel Abraham (GP15)

A satellite Ducati team with upset potential.  Alvaro Bautista, like Barbera, has been a consistent underachiever in the premier class.  His own high water mark occurred in 2008, when he finished second in the 250cc class behind a guy named Simoncelli.  In 2012 and 2013 he flogged Fausto Gresini’s close-to-factory spec Honda to 5th and 6th place finishes, respectively.  Meanwhile, enter Karel Abraham, previously employed by his dad before serving a one year sentence in WSB last year.  He’s back, for whatever reason, this time on a GP15.

Bautista has, over the years, shown moments of great skill and moments of sheer stupidity.  This year, again mimicking Barbera, he has a chance to peek at a podium or two after two grinding years with Aprilia.  This may also be the best bike HE has ever ridden, although the Honda back in 2012-2013 was badass.

We will stick our necks out here and predict zero podiums for the Aspar team in 2017.

Reale Esponsorama Racing (formerly Avintia)

  Hector Barbera (GP16)

          Too Tall Baz (GP15)

Another second-string Ducati team that could surprise, 2017 features Barbera on a GP16 and Baz on a GP15.  Hectic Hector’s career saw its high-water mark in the 250cc class in 2009 when he finished second to Hiro Aoyama.  Once he arrived in MotoGP, never having been the beneficiary of first class equipment, his career has leveled off. He has battled slow bikes, injury, and a low racing IQ to a series of undistinguished finishes.  Last year he showed some improvement which, if it continues this year, could actually make him a consistent top ten finisher.

Meanwhile, young Frenchman Loris Baz, who is, like, 6’3” tall, had an up and down second MotoGP season.  Three distinct episodes of “start slowly, improve, then crash” marked his year, including a fourth-place finish at Brno and a fifth at Sepang.  Riding a Ducati at 6’3” suggest you’re going to prefer the long flowing circuits over the tight squinchy ones.  He will need to learn to keep the bike upright if he is to continue in MotoGP.

Oh, and I checked—the French name Loris translates in English as “Loris.”  The only other Loris I ever knew was a girl. 

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing

Bradley Smith

          Pol Espargaro

Teammates on the Tech 3 Yamaha for the past two seasons, these two get factory rides with the rookie KTM factory team.  The Austrians have enjoyed decades of success elsewhere and feel it is but a matter of time before they start winning in MotoGP.  Years, perhaps many, in my opinion, but what do I know?

Of the two riders, I prefer Espargaro, a year younger, with a title under his belt in Moto2.  Smith seems like a nice guy, but appears snake bit.  It’s always something with Bradley–an injury, a mechanical issue, a head cold.  Whatever.  I will gladly back Espargaro this year in the intra-team rivalry, the only competition that will mean much of anything to this group.

The factory rollout of the KTM entries in all three classes included words from the Chief Cheddar at KTM Itself, Stefan Pierer, announcing his intention to fight with Honda for a MotoGP world championship in the not-too-distant future.

Patience, grasshopper.

Repsol Honda Team

   Dani Pedrosa

          Marc Marquez

Along with the factory Yamaha and Ducati teams, HRC is royalty in the world of grand prix motorcycle racing.  Repsol Hondas have been ridden by world champions Mick Doohan, Àlex Crivillé, Valentino Rossi, Nicky Hayden, Casey Stoner and Marc Marquez.  Its prospects are decidedly mixed heading into 2017.

With several new engines to figure out, the Sepang test was a bit of a struggle, with Marquez working hard to finish second behind Vinales, but able to deliver several impressive 20-lap race simulations.  Appears to be another year in which Marquez will have to manage an inferior bike to battle for the title with the other Aliens.  He did it last year.  I believe Vinales will collect a number of wins and an equal number of DNFs, allowing a mature Marquez to slug it out with Jorge, Dovi and Vale again this year.  With two new riders, Suzuki Ecstar will not threaten.  Iannone?  Dovizioso?  I think not.

As for Dani Pedrosa, I look for him to finish seventh or eighth this season, as he has clearly lost a step since his prime in 2012.  Whether he’s interested in serving as Marquez’ wingman in 2017 is problematic.  If he slips out of the top ten Honda may buy out his last year and bring Miller or, more likely, Crutchlow onto the factory team in 2018.  Miller may blossom this year.  Probably not.

Team SUZUKI ECSTAR

  Andrea Iannone

          Alex Rins

The second most interesting team on the grid, a rapidly improving Suzuki will have two new riders in 2017.  Andrea Iannone worked himself out of a job on the factory Ducati last season and landed with Suzuki, which may be a piece of good luck for both parties.  Thus far in his premier class career, Iannone has been unable to harness his impossible speed, his temperament and aggressiveness often getting the better of him.  It would be loads of fun to see him battle with the front group this season, and it could happen.  Unless The Maniac is still, well, a maniac.

Alex Rins has had Alien written all over him since he was about 15.  Although he never titled in the lower MotoGP classes, he recorded two seconds and two thirds in three Moto3 and two Moto2 seasons. The Rins and Marquez families do not exchange Christmas cards, setting up a new rivalry for the next few years while Rins earns his whiskers.  He figures to become a problem for both Marquez and Vinales in that time.  Definite Alien potential here.

I see a couple of podiums in store for Suzuki in 2017, perhaps a handful.  Unless the bike is greatly improved they may not compete for a win, but the Suzuki program seems to be progressing nicely.  Perhaps 2018 will be their year.

Phillip Island Test 

Three productive days of testing at Phillip Island in early February taught us little we did not already know.  Marquez and Vinales seem to be running in a league of their own.  Dani Pedrosa still has some juice left in the tank.  And rookie Jonas Folger can coax at least one fast lap per day out of his Tech 3 Yamaha.

Cal Crutchlow and rookie Alex Rins ran almost identical fast laps on Friday.  Dovizioso and Lorenzo were running neck and neck for seventh and eighth places, respectively.  Jack Miller, Aleix Espargaro and Alvaro Bautista finished ahead of Valentino Rossi, something you don’t get to report every day.  And lots of disappointed Ducati riders (six of the bottom nine) muttering to themselves farther back in the dust.  Not a great three days for Ducati Corse.

Vinales is making it hard not to envision him clutching a world championship trophy in his first premier class season.  If he can stay within himself and not get overly excited it could happen this year.  Then, when Rins joins the fray in 2019… 

* * *

There you have it.  Due to incessant demand, and for those of you interested in going into debt with your bookies, here’s my prediction for the Top Ten finishers, in order, for the 2017 season.  Bookmark this article so you can rub it in my face in November.  Expect a 404 Error Page Not Found at that time, especially if I’m way off:

  1. Marc Marquez
  2. Maverick Vinales
  3. Valentino Rossi
  4. Andrea Dovizioso
  5. Cal Crutchlow
  6. Jorge Lorenzo
  7. Dani Pedrosa
  8. Alex Rins
  9. Andrea Iannone
  10. Alvaro Bautista

MotoGP 2017 is here

January 27, 2017

For the riders, teams and followers of MotoGP, the “for real” 2017 testing tout ensemble gets underway at sultry Sepang later this week.  The interviews with the riders should be starting about now, in which all of them, from top to bottom, can be relied on to observe how bloody optimistic they are, that the bike is handling really great, the team is united, etc. Seriously, the most determinedly optimistic group you will ever meet or have the misfortune to interview.

Sepang will put some of that nonsense to rest.  The KTM and Aprilia teams have an uphill slog at this point in their development.  The Ducati teams–factory, Octo Pramac, Aspar and Avintia–have reasons to feel optimistic, that Gall’Igna continues to improve the bike with input from Lorenzo, Dovizioso and Casey Stoner.  If Lorenzo and Stoner can get their heads together on this project, and if Gigi can react to their input, the factory Ducati team may compete for a title.  Unless there’s rain, of which there was plenty in 2016.

Jorge does not enjoy riding in the rain.

ducati-99-lorenzo-950504-edited

The factory Yamaha team again features two riders, Rossi and Vinales, capable of titling in 2017. No news there.  The satellite Monster Yamaha Tech 3 team will likely endure a long year with the two rookies promoted from Moto2–Jonas Folger and Johann Zarco–getting adjusted to life in the fast lane.

vinales-on-yamahaedited

The factory Honda duo of Marquez and Pedrosa is another old guy/young guy pairing, similar to Vinales and Rossi.  Marquez remains in a league of his own.  He will be challenged by the factory Yamahas and possibly Jorge Lorenzo on the Ducati. The two Andreas–Dovizioso on the factory Ducati and Iannone on the factory Suzuki–should have plenty of opportunities to trade paint during the season, both figuring to be consistent top-eight finishers.  Iannone is the faster rider of the two, but has yet to learn the payoff for settling for a podium, rather than making an insane chase of things going for the win and crashing out altogether.  Or, worse yet, collecting your teammate, who might have happened to be on his way to a podium.

Alex Rins on the second Suzuki is liable to be a force at this level in two years.  I suspect he could be the next Maverick, and he has Rookie of the Year written all over him, very fast and on a rapidly improving Suzuki GSX-RR.

Then there’s Cal Crutchlow, my personal fave.  He should win three races this season.  And keep his cakehole shut as much as possible.

I allowed myself the time today to enjoy a vision, at a track I couldn’t identify, of all these bikes braking into the first turn, after a riveting dash for the front that included Lorenzo, Marquez, Vinales and Rossi.  Assuming Lorenzo and Vinales can keep their bikes upright, which I do not, there could be some very exciting racing in 2017.  Of the four, competing for the title should be Marquez and Rossi.  If Lorenzo and Vinales find the going difficult, Dovizioso, Crutchlow, perhaps even Pedrosa will be there to pick up the pieces.  The riders have mostly figured out the control ECU, and Michelin has mostly figured out the tire compounds that will work at most tracks.

Let the testing begin, just outside the jungle.  Heat, humidity and rain, perfect conditions for MotoGP.  Welcome to the big league, rookies.

Visit crash.net  for practice times.

 

Marc Marquez Blowing Smoke

December 30, 2016

This piece from The Independent is part of a disinformation campaign designed to get inside the head of one Maverick Vinales.  In it, Marquez states that his greatest fear in 2017 is defending his title against both Rossi and Vinales, that Vinales is capable of titling in his first year on the factory Yamaha.  That Marquez would engage in such a devious endeavor shows how he is maturing into a complete Master of the Universe.

Marquez at AragonFor comparison purposes, I attach an almost illegible summary of Jorge Lorenzo’s rookie year on the M1 in 2008.  Note the four crashes.  In 2008, Jorge Lorenzo was the Next Great Rider, a 20-year-old, multi-titled up and comer.  With more wins on the way to the premier class than Vinales. On a bike that was, at the time, dominating its world.  (The same cannot be said for Yamaha in 2017 as Honda has taken three of the last four titles.)

lorenzo-2008

What I believe Marquez is doing in this interview is setting up Vinales to over-ride the maverick-vinales-wiki-profile-pictureYamaha in the beginning of the year.  If I’m Maverick Vinales and I hear that Marquez is worried about me titling in my first year with Yamaha I might get something of a vocational stiffie dreaming about doing so.  Because Marquez is a Master.  The connection is unavoidable.

And so we watch Marc Marquez becoming more of a strategic thinker.  We expect Honda to address its engine issues to give him a bike with better corner exit speed and acceleration to be able to compete with the Yamahas if not the Ducs.  We expect him to train as hard as Rossi with his brother Alex and their homeboy Tito Rabat.  We expect his reflexes and balance to remain better than anyone else on the grid.  And we expect him to duel Valentino Rossi, not Maverick Vinales, for the 2017 title.

rossi-marquez_gold_and_goose

Not many rookies win the title in their rookie season as did Marquez.  That there could be two in four years staggers the imagination.

MotoGP 2016 Aragon Results

November 22, 2016

 

Marquez dominates Aragon, adds to series lead

 

Repsol Honda’s suddenly cerebral Marc Marquez took a big step toward seizing the 2016 MotoGP title with a formidable win on the Spanish plain.  By thumping the factory Yamaha Bruise Brothers, he increased his margin from 43 to 52 points with four rounds left.  A mistake on Lap 3 took him from first to fifth, but he remained patient, kept his powder dry, and went through, all stealthy-like, on Dovizioso, Vinales, Lorenzo and, finally, Rossi on the way to his first win on Spanish soil since 2014.

 

Q2 was a fright for all riders not named Marquez as the young Honda stud put down at least three laps capable of securing pole. He was joined on the front row by Maverick Vinales on the Suzuki and, with all zeroes showing on the clock, Jorge Lorenzo, who, needing a front row start, came through with the chips down to steal the third spot on the grid with an impressive last lap.  Row 2 materialized with Andrea Dovizioso on the factory Ducati, Cal Crutchlow on the LCR Honda, and Rossi in sixth.  The domination I had expected from Lorenzo heading into the weekend was nowhere in sight, as he appeared to be riding constantly on the limit and just barely managed a front row start after four nondescript practice sessions.  A big crash during Sunday’s WUP convinced him to go with hard tires front and rear and contributed to his best finish since his win at Mugello back in May.

 

Disorder at the Start

 

As the red lights went out, a front four—Vinales, Lorenzo, Marquez and Rossi—took shape (Marquez collecting several friendly paint samples from his front-running buds), followed by a second group composed of Dovizioso, Aleix Espargaro on the #2 Suzuki, and Dani Pedrosa, who wasn’t feeling the Misano magic today.  Marquez had taken the lead by Lap 3 before falling to fifth place when he made a meal of Turn 7.  From there, he went like this:

 

Passed Dovizioso on Lap 5

Passed Lorenzo on Lap 7

Passed Vinales on Lap 10

Passed Rossi on Lap 12

 

It is interesting, to me anyway, to note that three of today’s top four finishers made significant mistakes on the track—Marquez on Lap 3, Vinales on Lap 10, and Rossi on Lap 22 (giving up four points to Lorenzo and Marquez in the process).  Yet Lorenzo, happy to finish second, appeared to run a mostly flawless race but was unable to secure the win in what is becoming yet another Year of Marquez.  One hopes the Catalan’s detractors will give him props for pushing for the win today, rather than “playing it safe” at 200 mph.

 

Off the Podium

 

Cal Crutchlow, on the LCR Honda, started fifth and finished fifth today in what announcer Nick Harris described as a “phenomenal” performance.  Maverick Vinales, Alien-in-waiting, hung with the leaders for the difficult first half of the race before running too hot into Turn 12 trying to pass Lorenzo on Lap 10.  Eventually finishing fourth, the 21-year old Spaniard is enrolled in the advanced class of Winning in the Premier Class of MotoGP and will be a heller next year on the factory Yamaha.

 

In a tip of the hat to our American fans, both of you, replacement rider Nicky Hayden scored a point on the Marc VDS Honda subbing for Jack Miller, which is more than contract rider Tito Rabat could say.  Nicky was involved in a three bike wreck on Saturday that could have ended badly, lucky to have avoided injury.  Today, in his first go with the common ECU and Michelin tires, and he outpaced Yonny Hernandez and Loris Baz, not to mention two recalcitrant Pramac Ducati rivals.  Bravo Nicky!

 

Side Bet at Octo Pramac Ducati

 

The incident in Turn 1 of Lap 1 today involving Scott Redding and Danilo Petrucci could be seen coming from a mile away.  Pramac Ducati riders Petrucci and Redding have agreed to a last-half-of-the-year showdown—Brno to Valencia—the winner earning a shiny new factory GP17 to destroy next season.  They will drop the lowest score of the eight, per my recent suggestion.

 

In the tricky first turn today, the two got tangled up, with Redding dropping his bike on the floor temporarily and Petrucci, half a race later, being asked to take a ride-through penalty by Race Direction thank you very much.  Before today’s scrap, the raw score was Petrux 21 Redding 2.  (One dropped score would change it to 16-2.)  Even though both riders finished outside the points today, the team may sanction Petrucci for his alleged infraction, which was not shown on the broadcast of the race.

 

Redding, meanwhile, needs to eat his Wheaties for the rest of the season.  No more whining.  He has demanded a factory bike for 2017, and now has the opportunity to earn one.  He needs to resolve not to allow himself to be bullied by the hulking Petrucci, who loves a good scrap in the turns.  As of today, Redding holds 55 points, Petrucci 50.  May the better man win.  But please, no more takedowns.

 

In the Junior Circuits

 

Brad Binder placed second in a riveting Moto3 race today to secure the 2016 championship with four rounds left…to blow kisses to his fans.  (To me, Jorge Navarro looks more like a future Alien than does Binder.  The Alien rules require applicants to have won something while in their teens.  I’ve asked our crack research department to look at the stats to see which current Moto3 and Moto2 riders meet this requirement.)  BTW, when I tuned into the race there were a dozen bikes in the lead group.  At the end, it felt like a beatdown, but the top 11 finishers were separated by four seconds.  Give the people what they want—close racing.  Screw the displacement.

 

In the recent past it was always Moto3 or the 125s whose championship came down to Valencia.  This year Binder has been operating, like Marquez, on a different plane.  To clinch in September is amazing, and today’s race was no cakewalk; Binder had to risk all on the last lap to secure second place and the title.  Very impressive performance.

 

Meanwhile, in Moto2, a dehydrated Alex Rins managed sixth today, two spots in front of fading defending champ Johann Zarco.  By doing so, on the heels of a broken collarbone and, this week, gastroenteritis, he cuts Zarco’s lead in the chase to one point.  Sam Lowes won the race going away to put himself back in the championship conversation taking place in his head.  Zarco has been in a slump lately, without the look of a defending champion, while Rins, another Alien-in-Waiting, has kept it together through a rough patch to sit tied with four rounds to go.

 

The Big Picture Heading to the Pacific

 

All things being equal, Marquez should clinch sometime on the Pacific swing.  The rest of the contenders break down nicely.  Lorenzo vs. Rossi for second.  Vinales vs. Pedrosa for fourth.  Crutchlow vs. Dovizioso for sixth.  Iannone vs. Pol Espargaro for eighth.  And Hector Barbera vs. Eugene Laverty for 10th.  People should have plenty to cheer and argue about through Valencia.

 

Marquez’s magic numbers: 76 heading into Phillip Island; 51 heading into Sepang;  26 heading into Valencia. He’s at 52 today.  The math is easy.

 

Now comes the most brutal part of the season for the teams and riders.  No rest for the wicked.  Lots of hours in the air, lots of jet lag, lots of cold and hot weather, lots of loading and unloading.  Lots of stress for everyone, but especially the factory Yamaha riders chasing the chimera.

 

MO will keep you on top of all you need to know, starting a week from Wednesday.

MotoGP 2016 Silverstone Results

September 4, 2016

© Bruce Allen  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Seven winners in seven rounds as Vinales breaks Suzuki streak 

A red flag on Lap 1 lead to a 19 lap race on Sunday in the British midlands.  For the first time since 2007, a Suzuki won a premier class race, Maverick Vinales ending his day standing on the top step of the podium.  He was joined there by Cal Crutchlow, who kept another streak alive, and a desperate Valentino Rossi, who fought Marc Marquez tooth and nail for the final podium spot.  Despite this, Marquez leaves Britain leading the season by 50 points, having gotten some angry juju out of his system. 

Vinales got out front early in both starts, and led wire to wire in the race that counted.  Cool weather, dry track and a friendly layout led to the seventh different winner in the last seven races, a clear sign that Carmelo Ezpeleta’s diabolical scheme to have a 21-bike tie for first in Valencia in 2018 is working.  No question that it’s better than the same four guys each time out.

Plenty went on behind Vinales.  An all-day joust for second place evolved featuring Rossi, Crutchlow and Marquez, with Iannone and Dani Pedrosa in supporting roles.  Crutchlow, on the heels of his surprising win in Brno last time out, finished a very competent and aggressive second, thereby keeping the record of no Brit having ever won the British Grand Prix intact for another year at least.  If there was any such thing as a moral victory in MotoGP, today’s award would surely go to Crutchlow.

The most entertaining rider of the day was, of course, Marquez, who enjoys competing with Valentino Rossi.  The two spent a good part of the day together grinding their teeth before Marquez tried to put an extraterrestrial move on the Italian at Lap 18 and ended up running off (for the second time) and losing two spots.  Those two or three laps, with Rossi fighting for his life and Marquez seeing red, were as good as it gets.  In the context of the rivalry, it was Rossi and Stoner 2008 Redux, the intensity off the chart.  But, Marquez is the future, Rossi the past.

Rossi’s best efforts today resulted in getting briefly punked by Marquez on Lap 17 and failing to make a meaningful dent in the Catalan’s daunting championship lead.  At a track he, Rossi, loves.  With Lorenzo fighting to remain relevant, crossing the line in eighth place.  There is no joy in the Movistar Yamaha digs tonight.

Silverstone failed to mark, at the 2/3rds pole, an inflection point for the 2016 season, in either direction.  Marquez could have left leading by a number approaching 60 or 70 but failed to close the deal.  He could have crashed out, lizard brain in control, and watched his challengers halve his lead.  Though he surrendered a podium in today’s race, it didn’t really hurt him.  He took on all comers—Crutchlow, Rossi (epic), and Pedrosa, who, finishing fifth, gave us a glimpse into our recent past.  The Ducatis should have loved this track, but Iannone lost his marbles, a wounded Dovi could manage only sixth, and the remaining combatants were shut out of the top ten. 

Q2 Worth the Price of Admission:  Notes

  • Marquez got bumped off the front row late by Vinales, crashing immediately, unhurt. Afterwards, he stood in the infield during the last two minutes and watched himself fade from second to fifth on the hellascreen.
  • Crutchlow chose his opening perfectly, laid down the untouchable lap. Could be the “one fast lap” phenomenon practiced by Simoncelli at times and perfected by Randy de Puniet who, by actual tally, finished every race of the 2011 season in a lower spot than where he started.
  • Rossi finds a way to the middle of the first row.  Lorenzo was there for a moment before falling, suddenly and late, to the nine hole, foiled again.
  • There was a Dani Pedrosa sighting as he, too, occupied the two hole on the grid for an instant before claiming fourth. Not a bad lap for the veteran.
  • Dovizioso hurt again late in practice.
  • Notable–Eugene Laverty, chasing his first career premier class pole at the end of the session, crashes out very late. Excitable young man.  Watch out WSBK.
  • Alex Lowes looking great thus far on the Tech 3 Yamaha.

On Saturday night, it looked like Sunday was going to be dry.  Excuse me for the déjà vu, of covering my very first MotoGP race in Laguna in 2008 when Rossi put Stoner’s dick in the dirt and I thought, having watched it on cable TV (knowing nothing about it), that it seemed pretty cool.  Vinales denying Crutchlow an important win and applying a facial to the rest of the field felt like deferred gratification rewarded.  We knew the 21-year-old Spaniard would start winning races sooner than later.  Happy he gave the win to Suzuki; it’s not as touching when it’s the factory Yamaha in Parc Fermé.  His Alien card is stamped and waiting.

Sidebar:  Jorge Lorenzo leaves Yamaha for Ducati on a pronounced downturn, winless since Mugello.  Vinales leaves Suzuki for Yamaha on a definite upturn, great expectations intact.  The Great Ducati Jinx continues.

Re-Tranching the Premier Class

Tranche One:  Marc Marquez

Tranche Two:  Rossi, Lorenzo, Vinales, Pedrosa and Dovizioso

Tranche Three:  Iannone, Crutchlow, Pol Espargaro, Barbera and Laverty

Tranche Four:  Aleix Espargaro, Redding, Petrucci, Miller, and Smith

Tranche Five:  Bautista, Bradl, Rabat, Baz, Pirro*, Hernandez and Alex Lowes*

The Big Picture

The above standings constitute The Big Picture.  Marquez is in a class by himself this season; the championship is probably over already; we just haven’t heard the echo.  I may be being generous with Pedrosa and Dovizioso and mean to Iannone and Crutchlow.  Don’t care, it’s my column.  Plus it gets a lot of readers off their bums logging into their Disqus accounts.  My last line of defense:  Scoreboard.

Lorenzo could fall out of Tranche Two if he doesn’t get his act together soon.  Saving himself for Ducati?

What we learned today in Britain:  Vinales has finally arrived.  No more excuses, no more feeling sorry.  He is a legitimate threat in the right (dry, cool) conditions.  Crutchlow, had he not laid waste to the first half of his season, could be in contention for a top four finish this year.  I under-tranche him just for sport.  Rossi may be showing his age slightly, while Lorenzo looks lost out there, capable of going slowly in both wet and dry conditions.  The Dueling Andreas may be part of the problem rather than part of the solution.  Dani Pedrosa is still fast.  Scott Reading still has plenty to learn.  Loris Baz and Pol Espargaro are lucky to have only been injured during their close encounter on the first lap.  Seeing riders laid out on the tarmac is a vision I never want to see again.

Over at Moto2

Tom Luthi, somehow, won the Moto2 tilt; homeboy Sam Lowes got worked and dumped by Johann Zarco, who had 30 naughty seconds added to his time—ride-through equivalent–in addition to having possibly ruined Lowes’ season.  The penalty makes things easier for wounded Alex Rins, who now trails Zarco by only 10 points.  Great year continues in Moto2.

Looking Ahead

Only one week to Misano, Round 13.  This is the venue I want my masters at MO to send me to for next year’s race.  Mountains, The Adriatic Riviera, beautiful women, high octane gasoline, and an expense account.  It just doesn’t get any better.

 

MotoGP 2016 Brno Preview

August 16, 2016

© Bruce Alllen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Aliens Seek Redemption in Round 11

After getting schooled by the Dueling Andreas of the factory Ducati team in Austria, the fast movers at Movistar Yamaha and Repsol Honda look to get even this week in The Czech Republic.  These ambitions appear justified, in that the Automotodrom Brno has a healthy number of what are called “turns,” whereas the Red Bull Ring is more of a long straight with a couple of kinks in it.  It will take a heroic effort from the Ducs to convince the racing world that Sunday’s historic result wasn’t an outlier.

Despite this rather sour outlook, the stock of the Ducati program jumped this past weekend.  Series leader Marc Marquez this week shared his opinion with the media that the Andreas will be a force to be dealt with for the rest of 2016 and beyond.  They will be fronting Jorge Lorenzo in 2017 and 2018, which will raise their prospects yet another notch.  They should also be competitive at three of the fast circuits left on the 2016 calendar—Brno, Silverstone and Sepang.  Only their execrable start to the season appears to stand between them and Alien status.

Recent History at Brno

In 2013 rookie Marc Marquez, suddenly the blessed heir apparent, won at Brno for a fourth straight victory, edging teammate Pedrosa by 3/10ths with Lorenzo another two seconds back.  He ended the day leading Pedrosa by 26 points and Lorenzo by 44 with seven rounds left.

An anxious Lorenzo got off early from the five hole, hoping to blitz the field, but the Hondas gradually reeled him in, Marquez going through on Lap 16 and Pedrosa three laps later.  Valentino Rossi, gradually rounding into form on the Yamaha after two years in red, pipped pretender Alvaro Bautista at the flag for 13 points but still trailed Lorenzo by 26. It was at this point of the season that many people began getting comfortable with the idea, previously unthinkable, that rookie Marquez would take the title that year.

Brno was the site where Marquez’ amazing 2014 win streak came to a curious halt at 10 by way of a fourth place finish that was utterly mystifying.  #93 led most of the practice sessions and qualified on pole.  Again.  Having watched the race pretty carefully, it appeared to me that he just wasn’t that into it, that he let himself be beaten rather than trying to extend a streak that tested belief.  It was Pedrosa’s first win in 10 months, his last having come at Sepang in 2013, edging Lorenzo by a few tenths and Rossi by five seconds.  Those were the days where Marquez routinely rode out of control, and we saw none of that at Brno.

The “anyone but Marquez” mentality that had gradually descended upon the grid was in full force that day. It was Andrea Iannone on the Pramac Ducati who tangled with Marquez twice early, with Rossi assigned to keep the rookie at bay later in the race.  Not that it mattered, as the 2014 championship had been decided well before then.  Marquez would head to Silverstone leading Pedrosa by 77 points and Lorenzo by 90, what we in Indiana refer to as “a country mile.”  I suppose if you ask Aliens whether they ride for titles or records they will usually choose titles; records can be broken, taken away.  Titles, not so much.

The 2015 bwin Grand Prix České republiky gave the crowd of 138,000 a rather disappointing high-speed parade; six of the top 8 starters crossed the line in the same position they started.  One of these was polesitter Jorge Lorenzo, who flogged his Yamaha YZR-M1 to the fastest lap ever recorded at Brno on two wheels in qualifying on Saturday. Leading, as if on rails, from wire to wire, Lorenzo pulled into a tie with teammate Valentino Rossi for the 2015 world championship and, holding the tiebreaker, pushed Rossi out of the lead for the first time that year.  Marquez and Rossi joined Lorenzo on the podium that day.

With Marquez wrestling his 2015 RC213V to a draw most of the season, the Rossi/Lorenzo rivalry would keep growing until the first round of the Pacific flyaway in Sepang, when Marquez and Rossi tangled for the second time, the first having come at Assen. The wheels proceeded to come off the championship chase, so to speak, in a firestorm of hard feelings and bad sportsmanship, culminating in an ugly season finale in Valencia in which Rossi was forced to endure a last row start after some highly unbecoming behavior in Japan.

Irrational Exuberance

Paraphrasing the words of ex-Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan, most of the riders in the premier class grid can be accused of being overly optimistic about their prospects on a given weekend.  Nicky Hayden, now competing in World Superbike, was perhaps the most prominent example of this thinking.  Having won his only world championship during the down year of 2006, with but three premier class wins to his name during a 13-year career, The Kentucky Kid was generally convincing when describing his chances at any race, other than those few in which he was injured, as being good.  His usual take— “Well, we’ll wind it up, try to stay with the front group, look for some opportunities to steal a spot or two, and see what happens.  The reason they run these danged things is on account of you never know who might win.”  All this, during his last five seasons, generally on his way to 12th place and four points.

Now, suddenly, Dani Pedrosa is sounding an awful lot like Hayden.  His last three outings have produced a total of 23 points.  In the midst of what has arguably been his least productive premier class season ever, the following words came out of his cake hole yesterday: “It’s very wide, with some very fast corners, and you must be able to hit the best lines to set good lap times, as it doesn’t forgive the smallest mistake.”  He continued, “I just hope that the weather is stable so we can use all the practice time and try to build up some more confidence and speed.”  Finally, “In this second part of the season, we should find some more suitable tracks for us. Of course Brno has some long straights that can be demanding for us, but it’s a track that I’ve liked since I started racing, and I always have a good feeling there.”   The headline which accompanied this soliloquy read “Pedrosa upbeat on Brno prospects.”  Jeesh.

Your Weekend Forecast

Weather conditions in the greater Brno area are expected to deteriorate as Sunday approaches.  The best chance of rain appears to be on Sunday, with a weather system moving in on Saturday night.  I’m starting to sound like Al Roker.  Practice sessions should be dry, but Sunday could give us another hilarious flag-to-flag event.  Both Moto3 and Moto2 could have a red flag in their future on Sunday morning.

As to the podium, I am leaning toward Marquez, Lorenzo and Rossi.  #93 is a fast healer and will want to get back in the mix after the problems he experienced in Austria.  Lorenzo and Rossi count Brno among their favorite tracks, assuming the weather cooperates.  I would like to see a Ducati or two on the podium, but fear Iannone and Dovizioso may still be nursing hangovers from last time out, in addition to a little irrational exuberance.  Those two will be praying for rain.

We’ll have results and analysis right here early Sunday afternoon.