Late-Braking MotoGP

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Suddenly, the Season is Getting Away from Rossi

Heading into Mugello two weeks ago, the world appeared to be Movistar Yamaha matinee idol Valentino Rossi’s oyster.  Sure, he was sitting in third place, courtesy of his slide-off in Austin.  But he was within striking distance of both Repsol Honda nemesis Marc Marquez and teammate/rival Jorge Lorenzo.  His sense of the moment led many to expect a dramatic win at his home crib.  Instead, a blown engine on Sunday has put him squarely behind the eight ball, the not-so-magic eight ball that had falsely predicted something grand in Scarperia. 

His immediate problem, of course, is Round Seven, the fast-approaching Spanish Grand Prix #2, otherwise known as Barcelona, Catalunya and, to the Spanish riders who love her like eight year-olds love their mothers, Montmelo.  With three wins in the last four outings here, Jorge Lorenzo would marry her tomorrow if she were, you know, human.  Marc Marquez, the holder of the fourth win during this period, his only one here in three premier class outings, has nothing against older women, and would gladly whisk her away to Monaco for a long off-season weekend, were such a thing possible.

Rossi, winless here since 2009 and no big fan of anything Spanish, normally wouldn’t give her a second look.  He would disrespect her father and call her mother a filthy puttana.  Unfortunately for The Doctor, he has to make nice this weekend.  Mistreat Montmelo and she will bite you in the ass, leaving a mark.  She prefers Spanish men, having given all 25 points of herself to them for four years running.  If you’re Italian and have designs on a 10^th world championship, you had better bring flowers, a little something frilly for her mama, and be on your best behavior during qualifying and on race day.  Montmelo has not given herself to Rossi since 2009, and, not being fooled by the roses and lace, she would like nothing better than to kick his culo Italiana down the road to Assen. 

Recent History at Catalunya

Back in 2013, Factory Yamaha #1 Jorge Lorenzo won a number of battles at the Gran Premio Aperol de Catalunya.  He beat challengers Dani Pedrosa and Marc Marquez to the line for his second consecutive win of the season and his second in a row at Montmelo.  He beat the Spanish summer heat that had a number of riders seeing stars, and the racing surface itself, which was hot, greasy and abrasive. Disaster lurked just around the bend, however, as he crashed heavily at Assen the next time out, and followed that with another brutal off at The Sachsenring, opening the door for rookie Marquez to take his first premier class title that fall.

Catalunya 2014 took place during The Year of Marquez, as the sophomore sensation first went hammer and tongs with Yamaha mullah Rossi, followed by a knife fight with teammate Pedrosa.  Marquez ended up winning his seventh straight 2014 race by half a second over Rossi after Pedrosa, forcing the issue late in the day, touched tires with Marquez and got the worst of the encounter, finally settling for third.  Those of us who thought we had seen the best of MotoGP at Mugello two weeks earlier were treated to an even more compelling race that day, as both Rossi and Pedrosa looked capable of winning.

Whatever faint hopes double defending world champion Marquez held for a third consecutive title in 2015 ended on Lap 3 at Montmelo when, frantically chasing Lorenzo from second place, he ran way hot into the sharp lefthander at Turn 10, left the racing surface and dumped his Honda RC213V in the gravel, his day and season done.  With Lorenzo having jumped out into the lead on the first lap, and knowing what would happen if he let the Mallorcan get away, Marquez had no choice but to try to force the issue early. At the end of the day, he trailed Rossi by 69 points and Lorenzo by 68.  Game over.

Catalunya was one of six DNFs suffered by young Marquez last year.  And though he’s solved that particular problem, at least for now, he has yet to solve the acceleration and handling issues that have plagued the factory Honda for the last two years.  He is being forced to override, testing the limits of Michelin adhesion, every week.  His present 10-point deficit to Lorenzo is due to a crash at Le Mans while he was riding as if possessed; though he finished the race, he had but three points to show for his efforts that day.  At a track like Montmelo, such comportment can be hazardous to one’s health and well-being.

Scott Redding Selects a Role Model:  Cal Crutchlow

Quoting from an article published Tuesday in a reputable racing publication, “Crutchlow denied that his confidence was down, and does not believe that backing off to ensure he finishes races is the answer.”  Which is exactly what he was, um, “encouraged” to do by LCR management at Mugello, probably along these lines: “Listen, Cal.  Is that short for Californicate?  Whatever.  Wreck another of our bikes during today’s race and it’s your bollocks.  You will be limping to the unemployment line tomorrow.  We will tear up your contract and the lawyers you hire to enforce it.  You’ll never ride in MotoGP again, because you won’t be physically able to climb up on the saddle.  We are SICK and TIRED of your mouth and your crashing out of every bleeding race.  Finish the effing race. Or else.”  The article went on to capture Cal using a LOT of conditional verb tenses:

“At the end of the day, you put me on a Yamaha, I’ll hammer the two guys that are on the satellite Yamahas, there is no shadow of a doubt.”

“You put me on the satellite Ducati, I’ll hammer them guys as well.”

“I am pissed off at this situation but I can’t get myself out of this situation. What can I do?”  Well, Cal, you could go postal in the media, light a fire under your employers, and watch your contract not get renewed.  Is there anyone reading this who expects to see Crutchlow riding for LCR again next season?  Having previously given the finger to both Yamaha and Ducati, if someone were to film his racing biography it would have to be titled Burning Bridges: The Cal Crutchlow Story.

Not to be outdone, Scott Redding, late of Octo Pramac Ducati and with a full 16 points to show for his body of work this season, in the same publication, expressed his intent to remain with the Pramac team next season while acknowledging his disappointment at not having been tagged for the factory seat next to Jorge Lorenzo.  Sounding like Pramac would be damned lucky to keep him.

As if.

He then launched into a whinefest, reminding me of my five-year-old grandson when he suspects his big brother receives an incrementally larger slice of cake for dessert: “To do the contracts so early is a bit unfair and all the top guys keep changing around in the factories so it doesn’t give the younger guys the opportunity,” he said.  He continued, “I am 23, I’ve got maybe two years here and then try again, who knows what could happen in the future.”  One thing that could happen in the immediate future, Scott, is someone like Johann Zarco or Franco Morbidelli or Lorenzo Baldassarri could take your seat at Pramac and send you trundling off to World Superbike.

Seriously, I am not anti-Brit.  I’ve happily visited the country several times, have friends who live there, hope, for their sake, they stay in the European Union, love fish and chips, the whole lot.  I would love to see these guys taking podiums; the steady diet of Spanish and Italian riders (paging Casey Stoner) gets a little old after a decade or so.  But these two, speaking as if they are God’s gifts to motorcycle racing, need to shut up and take some points.  They need to look at the scoreboard and acknowledge they will be lucky to be riding for ANYONE next season.  They are in Tranche Five, wallering, as we say in Indiana, in the muck at the bottom of the MotoGP food chain.

They should NOT be getting quoted anywhere popping off about what they’re going to do, or could have done, or would have done.  In Tranche Five, the only people to whom you dictate terms are the crew guys going out to pick up lunch.

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The race goes off early Sunday morning in the U.S.  We’ll have results and analysis right here later in the day.

© Bruce Allen

Rossi contemplating a trip down memory lane 

Mugello used to be, for Valentino Rossi, what Phillip Island was for Casey Stoner.  During his salad days, between 2002 and 2008, Rossi stood on the top step of the podium at his home track seven straight times, while Stoner won the Australian Grand Prix six times from 2007-2012.  On race days, the two old priests at the Catholic church in Tavullia, Rossi’s home town, would watch the race, get a load on with the locals, and ring the church bells afterwards.  The bells have been silent after the Italian Grand Prix for the past seven years. 

A number of factors have conspired to deprive Rossi of a home win during this time.  In 2009 Casey Stoner was still enjoying success wrestling the Ducati Desmosedici until lactose intolerance sidelined him during the second half of the season. He won a three-way shootout at Mugello that year, beating sophomore sensation Lorenzo by a second and Rossi by two. 2010 was the year Rossi crashed hard in practice, resulting in the only serious injury of his career and a DNS at Mugello.  2011 and 2012 were The Lost Years at Ducati, during which he finished sixth and fifth in Italy, a complete non-factor.

Rejoining the factory Yamaha team in 2013, there was the Bautista incident described below.  In 2014 Marquez and Lorenzo were faster.  Last year it was Lorenzo again, with Andrea Iannone adding insult to injury by inserting himself into second place.  Yes, he’s Italian, but he’s not Rossi.

In short, since 2008 it’s been one thing or another.  With the best bike on the grid and a shiny new contract in hand, with teammate and rival Lorenzo departing for greener (or redder) pastures at season’s end, and some good luck having come his way two weeks ago at Le Mans, he appears to have his mojo back.  The Magic Eight Ball says, “Signs point to yes” this week in Italy. 

Recent History at Mugello 

The 2013 Italian Grand Prix was not a Rossi classic.  Far from it.  Early in the race, the excitable Alvaro Bautista, starting ninth on the GO&FUN Gresini Honda, went into Turn 2 on the gas while all around him were braking, sending himself and Rossi into the hay bales. Rossi’s teammate and defending world champion Jorge Lorenzo had things his way all day, leading every lap while holding brash Repsol Honda rookie Marquez at bay.

Marquez, trying too hard to make something happen late in the day, crashed heavily on Lap 21, surrendering second place to series leader Dani Pedrosa and third to Tech 3 soccer hooligan Cal Crutchlow who, having crashed so many times in practice, was being held together with Bandaids and popsicle sticks.  (Crutchlow seems to deliver his best results when seriously injured; I’ll resist the temptation to follow that observation to its logical extreme.)  The crowd went home disappointed at Rossi’s customary bad luck, deriving little consolation from Dovizioso’s 5^th place finish, with fellow paisans Michele Pirro wildcarding his way to 7^th, followed by Danilo Petrucci in 12^th and Andrea “The Rider Formerly Known as Crazy Joe” Iannone 13^th.

In 2014, Lorenzo gave the crowd a replay of 2013.  Unfortunately for him, 2014 was The Year of Marquez.  The Yamaha icon, despite having led for 21 laps, was unable to fend off Marquez at the flag, getting pimped by 12/100ths, with Rossi third, at least finishing the race, if not winning it.  The win put Marquez six-for-six in 2014, looking dynastic, while Team Yamaha, doing everything possible under massive pressure, put both riders on the podium but was unable to take the win at Rossi’s home crib.  Marquez left Italy with a 53-point margin over Rossi, a lead which was able to withstand a great second half of the season from The Bruise Brothers.

Last year was another Lorenzo-on-rails outing, a carbon copy of what we saw in France two weeks ago.  Exciting for Jorge, numbing for the fans.  Polesitter Andrea Iannone, aboard the rapidly-improving Ducati GP15, completed his career-best premier class outing in second place despite a list of injuries more commonly found at the foot of a set of concrete stairs.  Rossi was able to take care of a healing Dani Pedrosa to claim the final spot on the podium, but 2006 it wasn’t.  Marquez crashed out mid-race during the season of his discontent.

The Big Picture

Rossi sits in third place for the year, trailing the incandescent Lorenzo by 12 points and a troubled Marc Marquez by only seven.  Lorenzo is on a roll at present, and Mugello is one of his favorite layouts, very Yamaha friendly.  For Rossi, it’s home.  For Marquez it is enemy territory; after last season’s switchblades-in-a-phonebooth war with Rossi, the young Catalan can expect a rude welcome from the 90,000 locals wedged into the friendly confines on Sunday.  With Marquez struggling with acceleration and rear grip, and Pedrosa winless for the year, times are tough in the Repsol Honda garage at present.

But not nearly so tough as things down the block at the factory Ducati digs.  The factory team, The Dueling Andreas, have been screwed, blued and tattooed thus far in 2016.  A season in which many folks, myself included, thought either could pose a genuine threat to Lorenzo Rossi Associates finds them mired in 10^th and 11^th places, any chance for a credible season spoken of only in the past tense.  The suits in Bologna are issuing team orders.  Gigi Dall’Igna has chewed his fingernails to the quick.  A win on Sunday at their home track would do little to wash away the wretched memories of 2016.

For the Suzuki Ecstar team, it has been a good news, bad news fortnight.  The good news, obviously, was that Maverick Vinales earned his first premier class podium at Le Mans and the first for the factory team since 2009.  The bad news was that he followed up the Veuve Clicquot and Cohíbas Espléndidos by finally signing the contract (which included an application for membership in The Alien Club) with Yamaha for 2017-18, thereby ruining everyone’s mood and producing a vacuum on the #1 saddle.  Listen carefully and you can hear this vacuum sucking Andrea Iannone inexorably toward a two-year deal with Suzuki.

Better a Devil You Know than a Devil You Don’t

Honda lived up to its longstanding reputation for being cautious, conservative and respectful by signing the aging Dani Pedrosa for another two-year, no-championship stint with the Repsol factory team.  The new contract says more about Pedrosa’s ability to give useful feedback to the engineers than it does about his competitiveness on track.  Some will point out that he had a fairly strong start to the 2014 season and a strong finish to the 2015 campaign.  But he’s never won a MotoGP title and he never will.  Too many injuries, too many other great riders, too much bad luck.  You name it, and there’s been too much of it.  Plus, there’s still that lunatic fringe of fans who will never forgive him for the Nicky Hayden incident at Estoril in 2006, and who should get a life.

As for the news on Tuesday that Ducati would be keeping Dovizioso and disposing of Iannone, the thinking apparently was that Dovizioso’s poor results are due mainly to bad luck, while Iannone’s are his own fault.  Probably a wise decision, as Lorenzo and Dovi will present a formidable front next year, presuming the GP16’s maneuverability continues to improve.  Lorenzo probably had concerns, too, about having The Maniac as his wingman.  Who wouldn’t?

I can think of a few tracks where Lorenzo is going to get some major wood blowing Vale away in the main straights.

Your Weekend Forecast

Rain should vacate the greater Scarperia area by Friday afternoon, giving way to blue skies and temps in the upper 70’s.  Rossi weather.  No reason to think The Bruise Brothers won’t both end up on the podium on Sunday afternoon.  If I had to pick a dark horse to join them, I’d go with Iannone, against my better judgment.  And there is no truth to the rumor Rossi is shopping for a used DeLorean sporting an aftermarket flux capacitor.  Just sayin’.

We’ll have results and analysis right here later on Sunday.

So, we’re about a month away from the start of the 2016 championship season.  It promises to be a heller, with the return of four Aliens, the emergence of at least two wannabe Aliens–Iannone and Vinales–new tires, spec ECU, a slightly smaller grid, and tighter competition expected from top to bottom.  In no particular order, let’s take a fast look at:

• TIRES.  Michelin, as is being said about pretty much everything and everyone other than the factory Yamaha team, is going to need some time to get things sorted out. Until Loris Baz’s explosive crash at Sepang, we were hearing that the rear tire was superior to the Bridgestone, but that the front, being more male, lacked “feeling.” Not as much negative talk after Sepang as there was at Valencia, which shows Michelin is listening and crunching the numbers.  Expect the shakedown at the French tire factory to last through the first third of the season.  Expect it to hurt the Hondas more than the others, given the RC213V is harder to ride than anything else out there.  Asterisk for Aprilia, which is kicking out all the jams just to have a rideable prototype available for Qatar next month.  Personally, if I’m Bautista or Bradl, I’m not crazy about climbing aboard a rocketbike on which the paint is not yet dry.
• LORENZO AND ROSSI.  The two teammates, having patched up their formerly toxic relationship when Vale returned from Ducati, have once again returned to a state of mutual distrust.  Rossi says Lorenzo teamed up with Marquez to deny him the 2015 title; Lorenzo says the Yamaha brass favor Rossi over him.  Two intensely competitive guys with outsized egos.  Rossi says he will decide early this season whether to sign another two year deal with Yamaha.  Yamaha has not said if such a deal is on the table, slavering as they are over the likes of Alex Rins and Maverick Vinales.  It will be interesting to see if Rossi decides to re-up and Yamaha offers him a one year deal or no deal at all, making a play for Rins to team up with defending champion Lorenzo, who appears to be a mortal lock for his next contract.  Would Rossi accept a one year deal after publicly announcing a desire for a two year contract?  Nothing certain about that.
• SPEC ECU.  Cal Crutchlow confirmed what I’ve suspected for some time–Ducati have the inside track on the spec ECU, having worked with Magneti Marelli for years, the relationship fired by, among other things, the rampant nationalism extant in Italy. For everyone else, I’m guessing the sensation of moving from their own electronic control unit to the unified ECU is comparable to going from a 12 speed bicycle to a 6 speed model.  While the top speed may be the same, getting there requires more effort.  Again, it appears Honda is struggling with the change more than Ducati, and more than Yamaha.  The expected benefit accruing to Suzuki over this item has not appeared as yet, the Hamamatsu factory seemingly needing more than just a more level playing field to run with the big dogs.
• SHEER NUMBERS.  This year will feature four Yamahas, five Hondas, eight Ducatis, two Suzukis and two Aprilias.  It is fair to expect Ducati to have a very good year, moreso if 2016 turns out to be a wet season.  The Ducs are strong in the rain, and the Michelin rain tires are, at least now, an unknown quantity.  Suppose we find ourselves with a couple of flag-to-flag affairs in which each manufacturer sees one or two of its entries go down.  Ducati could conceivably place two bikes on such a podium due to the rapid improvements brought about by Gigi and the sheer number of bikes on track.  It wasn’t too long ago that Pramac Racing was a complete joke; those days are over.  When a Hector Barbera lights it up in preseason at Sepang, you have to feel somethin’s up.
• IANNONE VS. DOVIZIOSO.  Sad to say, it appears Andrea Dovizioso’s career peaked in 2013 or 2014.  If there is anyone poised to join the Alien club this season, it is Iannone, who finished a mere 18 points behind Pedrosa last season despite crashing out/retiring from three of the last four races.  Up until then he appeared to have fourth place in the bag.  With the Hondas expected to get off to a slow start (read: crash out of several of the first half dozen races) I would be surprised if Iannone doesn’t finally get his Alien card in the mail.  It is also fair to expect Scott Redding to improve his game this year, with plenty of grunt underneath his hulking frame and Gigi pulling the strings.
• SUZUKI NEEDS TO STEP UP.  Lest they lose one or both of their riders.  The good news–they have more horsepower under the hood this year.  The bad news–the spec ECU is not helping anything, and their seamless transmission is still one way only.  Someone is going to poach Vinales; he is rated #1 or #2 of the riders expected to join the factory Yamaha or Honda teams.  Espargaro, along with his brother Pol on the satellite Yamaha, continues to chafe about not being able to secure a top tier ride.  He turns 27 in July; the prospect of his ever becoming an Alien diminishes with each passing year.  By comparison, Rossi joined an Alien-class team at age 21; Lorenzo at 20, Pedrosa at 20 and Marquez at 20.  If it were going to happen for Aleix, it would have done so already.

We will have a full-scale season preview ready a week or so before the teams head for Losail.  With Austria on the calendar and Indianapolis now off, it seems fair to say that the calendar has turned a little more in favor of the Yamahas.  Marc Marquez needs to come to grips with the 2016 chassis, as I doubt management will continue to allow him to race the 2014 version he ended last year on.  Will he get his act together sufficiently to challenge Lorenzo and Rossi for the 2016 title?  In mid-February, with snow on the ground in Indiana, that appears to be a tall order.

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© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Lorenzo, Rossi seek momentum in Malaysia

Movistar Yamaha teammates and rivals Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo have taught us a few things about themselves as this riveting 2015 season blazes into The Pacific Rim for Round 17 at Sepang International Circuit. Rossi prefers rain, short, pudgy tracks where he can record lots of qualifying laps, and applying pressure from the rear, as it were, on race day. Lorenzo likes things bone dry, prefers longer tracks to shorter ones, and strongly prefers running from the front, as roughly half of his premier class wins have come in races in which he’s led every lap. Conditions here on race day are a pure lottery; the race could as easily be decided on Saturday as Sunday.

Assuming the weather conditions don’t interfere, Lorenzo would appear to have an advantage over Rossi on Saturday, as Rossi’s qualification maladies continue to hurt him, more so at long circuits like Sepang. Sepang had been dominated by Yamaha and Ducati for most of the ten years leading up to 2011. Since 2012, however, Hondas have captured the checkered flag here every year, and look fully capable of doing so again this year. The Honda RC213-V likes a racing surface that is hot, slick and greasy, kind of a young-John-Travolta racing surface, if you will. The problem for the non-Italians on the grid is the afternoon rainstorms that pop up most days–Rossi, Dovizioso and Petrucci are all mudders.

Once again, we believe Lorenzo is under more pressure than Rossi. Lorenzo not only needs to beat Marquez, he needs to beat Rossi and hope Marquez beats Rossi too, in order to have a realistic crack at the title in Spain come November. Rossi needs to podium and not worry too much about anything else. If he’s feeling reverent, he can pray that Marquez and Lorenzo take each other apart, leaving the door open for him to win and clinch. But unlike in years past, God’s Bishop of Rome is now Hispanic, taking away the spiritual home court advantage enjoyed by Italians like Rossi for decades.

Conceivably, God could be pulling for Lorenzo this time around.

Recent History at Sepang

In 2012 it rained pitchforks and hammer handles on Sunday, with 30% of the 20 bikes that started the race failing to make it to the red flag that fell at the end of the 13th lap. Repsol Honda’s Dani Pedrosa, on a futile hot streak, with no real way of catching Jorge Lorenzo for the year, managed another win, followed by Lorenzo, Casey Stoner and ol’ Nicky Hayden, who drove his Ducati to a solid fourth place finish. Rossi, enduring the second year of his perdition with Ducati, wrestled his Desmosedici to a just okay fifth place, not what The Doctor had been used to for most of the previous decade. (Pedrosa would crash out the following week at Phillip Island, effectively handing the title to his Mallorcan rival.)

Pedrosa won again in 2013, beating Marquez, Lorenzo and Rossi to the flag as the factory Hondas handed it to the factory Yamahas. Pedrosa, you will recall, had been clipped by Marquez at Aragon two weeks earlier, crashing out shortly thereafter. This week Pedrosa was not having it, going through on Marquez on Lap 5 and never looking back. Marquez, the 2013 title within easy reach, stayed out of trouble all day, and there was little left for Lorenzo other than beating Rossi. Marquez would earn a DQ the following week in Australia, postponing his coronation as the boy king of MotoGP until Valencia. Lorenzo, sore about being denied his third title by Marquez, went off on him at the Thursday press conference, accusing him of dangerous tactics and Dorna Race Direction of collusion.

Last year Marc Marquez added to his record collection by taking the pole and the win, with Rossi and Lorenzo giving maximum, ultimately futile chase in The Year of Marquez. The samurai celebration at Motegi the previous week, when Marquez clinched the title, gave this race a vaguely artificial feeling. Nonetheless, the grid was taking it seriously, seriously enough that eight riders failed to complete the race. Dani Pedrosa, in the chase for runner-up for 2014, crashed twice, putting his hopes aside for yet another year. LCR Honda’s Stefan Bradl would finish fourth, coming close once again to a second premier class podium, to go along with his second place trophy from Laguna Seca in 2013.

Rossi’s Challenge: Qualify on the Front Row

As one of the longest circuits on the calendar, Sepang brings its own special set of problems to the riders during Saturday’s qualifying sessions. The amount of time it takes to turn a lap means the riders can only manage two qualifying runs, rather than the three they often attempt at shorter tracks. Rossi, for all his gifts and extraordinary skills, has yet to master the 15 minute qualifying format. Which is why we suggest Sunday’s race, even the 2015 title, could be decided on Saturday.

If Lorenzo and Marquez qualify up front and Rossi gives us another of his 8th place starts, we’re pretty much assured of a shootout at Valencia in two weeks. If qualifying produces results like this, AND the rain stays away for the race, it is not beyond comprehension to suggest that Lorenzo could lead the way heading back to Spain.

Rossi’s history here is deceptively, well, deceptive. Although he’s enjoyed six premier class wins here since 2000, the most recent came back in 2010. Perhaps it’s fair to say he USED to be brilliant here. Recently, not so much. But Lorenzo’s history is even worse—not a single win at Sepang in the premier class since 2008. And although he finds his way to the podium most years, he absolutely needs to win on Sunday, or hope for a mistake by Rossi. A third place finish behind Rossi this week would render Valencia moot, as Rossi, needing only to finish, say, in the top seven, could accomplish that with his eyes closed.

Lorenzo needs to make it happen on Saturday and again on Sunday. This is a track he should own, and a race in which he needs to assert his will on the field as he’s done many times before. If it rains, it will simply be that much more difficult. This is not the time of the season when double world champions go around making excuses. They either get done what needs to be done, or they don’t. These are defining moments in one’s career; it will be fascinating to see how both Lorenzo and Rossi approach their work on Sunday. The subplot, of course, will involve the likes of Marc Marquez and Andrea Iannone, who have what it takes to make life even more difficult for the two Yamaha studs.

Let’s hope that Mark Neale, the producer of several in-your-face films about MotoGP, most recently “Hitting the Apex,” has a crew in Malaysia on Sunday. Mark does for MotoGP what NFL Films does for professional football. If he’s doing a profile of the 2015 season, and I deeply hope he is, this weekend could play a key part. The promoters of Round 18 at Valencia are praying for Lorenzo this weekend, and for the chance to host a magical event in two weeks.

We have secured a copy of the American release of “Hitting the Apex,” and I’ll be reviewing the film here before Round 18. If the trailer is any indication, “Hitting the Apex,” which follows MotoGP from 2007 to 2013, will be another classic racing film, comparable to the grainy, beautiful “Senna” from several years ago.

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Yamahas thinking title; Hondas thinking commotion

Factory Yamaha kingpins Jorge Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi, a mere nine points between them, would probably enjoy fighting things out for the rest of the season in a series of match races. Going one-on-one on empty tracks for bragging rights in 2015. While attendance on Sundays probably would not decline by all that much, the rest of the grid, most notably Repsol Honda threats Marc Marquez and Dani Pedrosa, would prefer to be involved. By “involved” I mean trading paint in tight spaces, hoping to disrupt things sufficiently for Marquez, at least, to have a shot at MotoGP title #3. 

Sadly, as we saw last week in Indianapolis, 2015 has devolved, as pretty much every season does, to four Aliens and everyone else. My penchant for slicing the grid into five or six tranches has proven to be a waste of time. There are, in fact, only two tranches—the factory Yamaha and Honda teams, and everyone else. The glimpses of grandeur we witnessed early in the season from the factory Ducati contingent have become sparse. The hope we held for a return to racing glory by the factory Suzuki team is, at best, premature. The Gresini Aprilia team has not disappointed; their prospects heading into the season were nil. The satellite Honda and Yamaha teams are respectable, but do not appear capable of winning anything anytime soon. And the open class, again in 2015, must be content to fight for points in ones and twos. In the words of Bruce Hornsby, that’s just the way it is.

Which brings us to Brno, the only place in The Czech Republic, other than Prague, any of us has ever heard of or can pronounce. I’ve been calling Brno a Yamaha track for years, despite the fact that Big Blue hasn’t won here since Lorenzo in 2010. Whether it’s a Yamaha track or not, it should be. It’s the Heidi Klum of MotoGP circuits—long and graceful, with gently undulating curves, perfect teeth, and a sexy Eastern European accent. Any mention here of 140,000 intoxicated Czechs wishing to get up close and personal would be entirely inappropriate.

Recent History at Brno

Round 12 in 2012 found Repsol mighty mite Dani Pedrosa at the top of his diminutive game. Entering the race 17 points behind Lorenzo, he fought off a cabal of Yamahas, pipping  Lorenzo at the wire, with Tech 3 malcontent Cal Crutchlow finishing a surprising third, six seconds ahead of teammate Andrea Dovizioso. Casey Stoner, Pedrosa’s teammate, sat this one out with the ankle he demolished at Indianapolis. Trailing Lorenzo by only 13 points on Sunday evening, Pedrosa would go on to run the table in 2012, other than his ruinous crashes at Misano (the stuck tire warmer debacle) and Phillip Island (pressing so hard he almost came out of his socks). Lorenzo beat him by 18 points for the championship, the closest Dani would ever get to a MotoGP title.

In 2013 rookie Marc Marquez, suddenly the king of the hill, won at Brno for a fourth straight victory, edging teammate Pedrosa by 3/10ths with Lorenzo another two seconds back. He ended the day leading Pedrosa by 26 points and Lorenzo by 44 with seven rounds left. A desperate Lorenzo got off early, hoping to run away from the field, but the Hondas gradually reeled him in, Marquez going through on Lap 16 and Pedrosa three laps later. The podium celebration was memorable, as the Spanish national anthem was followed by a recording of Don Meredith singing “Turn Out the Lights, the Party’s Over.” MotoGP meets Monday Night Football behind the remnants of the Iron Curtain. (My memory of that afternoon may not be quite accurate.)

Last year Brno was the site where Marquez’ amazing winning streak came to a curious halt, stopped, as it were, by Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Rossi tout ensemble. Having watched the race pretty carefully, it appeared to me that Marquez just wasn’t that into it, that he let himself be beaten rather than forcing the issue. It was Pedrosa’s first win in 10 months, his last having come at Sepang in 2013. What had evolved over the course of the season was an “anyone but Marquez” mentality that seemed to grip the rest of the grid. That day, it was Iannone who tangled with Marquez twice early, with Rossi having volunteered to keep the rookie at bay later in the race. Not that it mattered, as the championship had been decided well before then. In 2014 it took a village to keep Marquez off the podium.

Rumor and Innuendo

Leading first with innuendo, Claudio Corti has to be the lamest of lame ducks this weekend. Imagine subbing on an open class Yamaha as the #2 rider on a team in such desperate financial straits that Round 11 is likely to be its last dance ever. Such is Forward Racing’s plight heading into the Czech Republic. Stefan Bradl has already bailed, and hard luck Loris Baz, who came out of virtually nowhere to present a credible challenge for the open class title, will find himself homeless come Sunday evening. Bringing in Corti for the team finale reminds me of when we were kids on the 4th of July, lighting off ladyfingers one at a time until we finally realized just how lame we were and lit off the rest of the pack all at once. At least it will give the other half of the crew something to do besides gape at the brolly girls.

The most interesting rumor of the week has Stefan Bradl replacing Yonny Hernandez on the Octo Pramac Ducati next year alongside Danilo Petrucci. Hernandez was having a pretty good year early in the season but, like the Dueling Andreas of the factory team, has dropped off the pace of late. Bradl, who flirted with Ducati back in 2012, must feel that Aprilia is several years, perhaps decades, away from having a competitive bike. And while there exists considerable sentiment in the paddock around having a Japanese rider, some Brits and a German or two to build attendance and bolster marketing efforts, no similar sympathy appears attached to the Pride of Colombia. Hernandez could easily find himself a competitive ride in World Super Bike next year. He and Nicky Hayden could make a formidable pair fronting for Ducati.

Quick Hitters, and Your Weekend Forecast

After going seven for seven in the United States over the past three seasons, and in need of a snappy nickname, Marquez should consider Captain America. He, perhaps alone among all the riders, will be sorry to see Indianapolis fall off the calendar…Sito Pons, Chief Cheddar at Pons Racing, seems to have known what he was doing last year, signing ascendant rookie Alex Rins to a two year deal. This will shield the 19 year old from any temptation to jump to MotoGP for what is likely to be a very difficult 2016. I suppose the possibility exists that Pons may want to do a Marc VDS and put together his own MotoGP team for 2017, as the herd looks to be thinning over the next season and a half. Teams with real sponsorship issues include Forward Racing, LCR, Aspar, and Ioda; plenty of room on the 2017 grid for a well-financed Pons Racing team.

Not wishing to dwell on Heidi Klum any more than necessary (as if that’s possible), the weather forecast for this weekend is hot hot hot. As in temps in the 90’s, pop-up thunderstorms a distinct possibility, more like Sepang than Brno. A layout favoring the Yamahas with conditions favoring the Hondas—a recipe for unpredictability. Q2 on Saturday is likely to tell the story once again.

The race goes off at 8 am EDT, and we’ll have results right here Sunday around noon.  First on the web with results and analysis.