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MotoGP 2016 Phillip Island Preview

October 18, 2016

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

 Plenty at Stake Down Under

Sadly, the race for the 2016 title is over, and we/I congratulate Marc Marquez on his third premier class championship.  But the end of the story of 2016 has yet to be written.  There will be controversy—will Marquez torment Valentino Rossi during these last three rounds, in the hope of elevating homeboy Jorge Lorenzo?  There will be paint-trading in the turns.  There will continue to be the races-within-the-race that capture so many people’s attention.  There will be Petrucci vs. Redding.  There will be crashes and run-offs and mistakes by guys operating at the outer limits of human endurance, testing the laws of physics at every turn.  What’s not to like?

Recent History at Phillip Island

2013:  Lorenzo won comfortably over Pedrosa, with Rossi, Crutchlow and Alvaro Bautista (on the satellite Gresini Honda) gripped in a hair-raising battle for third that saw the veteran Rossi beat Crutchlow and his LCR Honda by .11 seconds while Crutchlow pipped the Gresini pilot by .053, the blink of an eye.  The race marked the first Australian Grand Prix in seven years not to feature Casey Stoner at the top of the podium.  Marquez took a cheap DQ when, fighting for the lead, he neglected to pit in time, as Bridgestone, who ordered the mandatory mid-race pit stop, struggled mightily to provide the teams with safe rubber up against a new, abrasive and untested racing surface.  Even Race Direction was unable to keep Marquez out of the title in his rookie year.

2014:  Marquez crashes out of a four second lead on Lap 18 as his Bridgestone front seems to turn to ice.  23 riders start the race; 14 finish.  Thus relieved of the pesky Catalan sophomore, Valentino Rossi led a trio of Yamaha M1s over the line, joined on the podium by Lorenzo and premier class podium virgin Bradley Smith, who whipped his Tech 3 Yamaha to his first premier class podium.  Ever.  None of it really mattered, as Marquez left Down Under ahead of chaser Lorenzo by 18 points on the way to his second world championship.  In case we’ve neglected to mention it in the past, Phillip Island is a Yamaha/Ducati kind of place.

2015:  The Pramac Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix had something for everyone.  Repsol Honda defending double world champion Marc Marquez, in his season of discontent, laid down an historic last lap to steal the victory from compatriot Jorge Lorenzo.  Lorenzo, trailing Yamaha teammate Valentino Rossi by 18 coming in, was blessed that day by a statement performance from factory Ducati (then #1) Andrea Iannone, who slipped past Rossi one more time on the final lap and onto the podium, trimming Rossi’s lead over Lorenzo to 11 points heading for Sepang and Round 17.  What a difference a year made for Iannone, just twelve months ago the fair-haired child of Ducati Corse; this year a refugee to a possibly apprehensive Suzuki operation.

Sibling Rivalry

Such is the case with the brothers Espargaro.  A competition which undoubtedly started when younger brother Pol was still in diapers continues today as older brother Aleix tries to keep up with little bro.  At some point in the past, younger brother took the upper hand over big brother; glad I wasn’t there for that.  Pol, on the satellite Yamaha, brings a 24-point lead over the fraternal factory Suzuki into Round 16 and appears set to rub it in to Aleix’s face for the fourth year in a row.

Last year, on the same equipment, Pol was +9.  In 2014, Pol, still on the Tech 3 bike, with Aleix on the doomed Forward Racing Yamaha, put another 10 points on his sib.  In 2013, one would say that Pol won the day again, taking the Moto2 championship, while Aleix, slugging it out in the premier class on terrible ART hardware, claimed a decent 11th place finish.  Advantage Pol.

New digs for each next year.  Pol finally gets his factory ride with KTM, while Aleix moves down to the Gresini factory Aprilia, not yet competitive in the post Dall’Igna era.  The two bikes should be relatively competitive with each other, meaning that while the colors on the leathers may change, the appeal of an opportunity to give your brother a wet willie won’t.  MotoGP thrives on rivalries, even the friendlies.

Kevin Schwantz—Milky Milky

Your boy Kevin Schwantz, world champion in 1993 in the 500cc two stroke era when men were men and women were glad of it, continues to milk notoriety from his reputation and is now approaching 23 years, more or less, of living off the fat.  Journalists still seek his opinions on moto racing and he is always willing to share them.  Bring the photographer.

Anyway, over at someothersite.com, Schwantz was asked about his impressions of Jack Miller, stating his belief the young Australian would become some kind of great rider in time.  (Assuming he still possesses all of his body parts when that time arrives.)  He also conceded that Marc Marquez “impresses” him, what with three MotoGP titles by age 23 and all.

This, you see, is exactly the kind of stuff the editors here at MO loathe.  Some guy whose glory days are way behind him, dispensing faint praise re the talents of riders, at least in the case of #93, would beat them like a drum on an identical equipment/same age basis.  But we’re not hating on it because it interests us.  We’re kind of going on and on about it because Marquez won the frigging title last week and we need something to rant about.

Back to the Race

The domino effect engendered by the injury to factory Ducati rider Andrea Iannone continues in place this week, as Hector Barbera gets to wreck another brand new GP16 while Mike Jones takes his seat with the Avintia Ducati team.  Barbera and Jones were the last two riders to finish at Motegi, the Spaniard finishing outside the points due to an early mishap, whereas Jones finished a lap down but with his paint intact.  I imagine the bosses would prefer the latter to the former.

Lorenzo, Rossi and Marquez having won here recently, Rossi the beneficiary of Marquez’ careless crash out of a four-second lead in 2014.  For the Yamaha teammates, they have attached blinders regarding whatever’s up with Marquez and are dialed in on one another, second place for the season and a load of machismo at stake.  Just as last year, Rossi enjoys a narrow lead over Lorenzo.  Lorenzo wants to arrive at Ducati in one piece but wants to beat Rossi more.  So it will be a great battle this time out.  Whatever happens thereafter we’ll take, too.

Conditions at Phillip Island this weekend are expected to be rough, with a 100% chance of rain on Friday giving way to clear skies on Sunday.  It’ll be the temps and the wind which will take its toll on riders and lap times, as temps are expected below 60° with cold northwest winds steady in the high teens, with stronger gusts.  A perfect weekend for Marc Marquez to lay low.  An imperfect setup for Lorenzo and Rossi, who must face off against one another in the teeth of the gale at perhaps the fastest track on the calendar.  The hint of rain spells advantage Rossi.

The race once again runs in the middle of the night in North America.  We will have results and analysis right here on Sunday afternoon.

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Posted in 2016 MotoGP championship, Andrea Dovizioso, Andrea Iannone, Australia, australian grand prix, Dani Pedrosa, Honda, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, Maverick Vinales, MotoGP, MotoGP Phillip Island, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News, Scott Reddiing, Suzuki, Valentino Rossi, Yamaha | Leave a Comment »

MotoGP 2015 Phillip Island Preview

October 13, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Lorenzo needs to win big this week and next

Movistar Yamaha idol Jorge Lorenzo, he of the two fairly recent world championships, has a steep hill to climb to set up a climactic finale to the 2015 season in Valencia. Which, in turn, necessitates opening a can of whupass on his legendary Italian teammate and rival, Valentino Rossi this week in Australia and next time out in Malaysia. It’s hard to envision Rossi, at this stage of his career, allowing an 18 point lead to disappear in two weeks. Sure, I know, that’s what Marquez almost did last year; my money’s on the old guy anyway.

Recent History at the Australian Grand Prix

2012. Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa, pressing, trailing Lorenzo by 23 points with two rounds left, in full “win or bin”

2012/10/20 - mgp - Round16 - Sepang - MotoGP - Casey Stoner - Repsol Honda - RC213V - Action

Casey Stoner circa 2012

mode, crashed early, his day and season over in one fell swoop. Stoner won for the sixth consecutive time at Phillip Island. Lorenzo finished a comfortable second and clinched the title, becoming the first Spanish double world champion. Other than Stoner’s Honda, it was two/three/four for Yamaha, as Lorenzo captured second, Cal Crutchlow in the Tech 3 Yamaha took third, and his Tech 3 teammate Andrea Dovizioso crossed the line fourth.

2013: Lorenzo won comfortably over Pedrosa, with Rossi, Crutchlow and Alvaro Bautista gripped in a hair-raising battle cropped-jorge-lorenzo-2013.jpgfor third that saw Rossi beat Crutchlow by .11 seconds while Crutchlow pipped the Gresini Honda pilot by .053 seconds, the blink of an eye. The first Australian Grand Prix in seven years not to feature Casey Stoner at the top of the podium. Marquez took the cheap DQ when he failed to pit in time, as Bridgestone struggled mightily to provide the teams with safe rubber up against a new, abrasive and untested racing surface. Even Race Direction was unable to keep Marquez out of the title in his rookie year.

2014: Marc Marquez crashes out of a four second lead on Lap 18 as his Bridgestone front seems to turn to glass. 23 Rossi 2014riders start the race; 14 finish. Thus relieved of the pesky Catalan wonder, Valentino Rossi led a trio of Yamaha M1s over the line, joined on the podium by Lorenzo and premier class podium virgin Bradley Smith, who whipped his Tech 3 Yamaha to his first premier class podium. Ever. None of it really mattered, as Marquez left Down Under ahead of chaser Lorenzo by 18 points on the way to his second world championship.

A Little Perspective

That Phillip Island is a Yamaha-friendly track is virtually beyond dispute, now that Casey Stoner has retired. Both Rossi and Lorenzo have enjoyed success in Australia, Rossi’s mainly coming in the pre-Stoner days until winning last year. Jorge Lorenzo is capable of winning at any track in the world. He is MORE capable of winning at a circuit like Phillip Island so well-suited to his riding style. If he gets out in front on Sunday, and the creek don’t rise, he’ll probably take an easy win. Rossi doesn’t need to win; he just needs to figure out how to stay close to the front. In front of Lorenzo, as always, is better than behind Lorenzo.

It is easy to imagine this being a race Marquez wants to win badly. After a ho-hum fourth place finish in Japan on Sunday, Marquez remains winless at Motegi in the premier class, followed this week by Phillip Island as the only two venues where he has yet to win in the MotoGP class. At Motegi, the story was the weather. This weekend the story will probably be the track, as Phillip Island is the fastest track on the calendar, and the Yamahas love it here. The intra-team battle at Movistar Yamaha promises to overshadow any other considerations. Beyond the weather, it will pay to watch tire degradation, as the Yamahas suffered last time out. The new surface at Phillip Island is highly abrasive; the Hondas, especially the minute Pedrosa, may enjoy an advantage late in the day when fuel loads have dropped and tires are going south.

In dry conditions, it still seems that the Aliens—Lorenzo and Rossi, Marquez and Pedrosa—continue to dominate the proceedings. Pedrosa made Lorenzo’s job harder last week by winning at Motegi, taking the win away from the Mallorcan and pushing him to shred his front tire early, allowing Rossi to go through late in the day.

Up until Sunday, Lorenzo was telling the world that all he needed to do was to win the remaining rounds to be world champion. Now, even that daunting task will not be enough, as he needs a Repsol Honda between him, winning, and Rossi, dropped to third place in this scenario, the only one that presents a realistic shot at this thing. Unless Rossi crashes… In short, Lorenzo has now lost control of his destiny. He needs to run the table and hope Rossi suffers some misfortune.

I can’t speak for everyone here, but what I want this season is for Lorenzo and Rossi to head to Valencia tied. Winner take all in Spain. The neatest, most simple way for this to occur is for Lorenzo to win, Marquez or Pedrosa to place and Rossi to show in each of the next two Pacific rounds. I don’t want Lorenzo (or Rossi, for that matter) to arrive in Valencia with some mathematical chance of winning, any kind of slim possibility or puncher’s choice.

I want them going there dead even.

That would be a race.

All of which means Lorenzo needs to win in Australia and hope for help from one, or both, of the Repsol Honda guys, who are clearly capable of providing such help. They’re equally capable of winning the daggone race, which would make Lorenzo’s job even harder, trying to stretch 20 points to reach as far as 25 would go. As is almost always the case, all Lorenzo can really do is go out and try to win the race. Any effort to control what might be going on behind him, by, for example, coming back to the pack, is unlikely to pay great dividends.

Alex de Angelis

alex-de-angelis (1)After watching Alex de Angelis go handspringing through the gravel in practice at Jerez in 2010 along with the remnants of his bike, I thought he was indestructible. (Search YouTube for “Alex de Angelis practice crash Jerez 2010”) And he walked away from that one. We read yesterday that his condition following his crash in FP4 at Motegi is now rated “critical,” and that he has blood on the brain, broken vertebrae, a punctured lung, and more.

These guys risk their lives every time they suit up. We have noted in this space often in the past that the difference between the best and the worst in this sport is razor-thin, a couple of seconds per lap. This is the chosen profession of every rider out there; only a handful get to compete at literally the highest level in the world. Alex de Angelis has been one of those men. Add him to the list of people we must try to be nicer to.

We presume that Alex will recover and return to racing, if not this year then next, and send our sincere best wishes to his family, his team and his fans.

Your Weekend Forecast

High temps will be dropping from the 90’s on Thursday to the low 70’s on Sunday, with the best chance of rain on Saturday. The wind, as always, will be blowing hard from a different direction each day of the weekend, possibly becoming yet another factor in a pivotal contest.

Valentino Rossi, enjoying life with the lead, can afford to be strategic this weekend. No need to ride the wheels off his bike to take a win unless it’s Lorenzo in front of him and he just can’t help himself. For Jorge Lorenzo, the playoffs begin this week. Staying close to the front is no longer an option. He needs to run the table, praying for good weather and all things Spanish.

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Last chances abound in Malaysia

October 23, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Sepang Preview, by Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com.

After the carnage in Phillip Island, the prospects of the various Aliens have changed significantly. If pending 2014 champion Marc Marquez is to challenge Mick Doohan’s all-time record of 12 wins in a season, he needs to win here. Dani Pedrosa, having spent the bulk of the season in second place, now finds himself fourth, looking up at both of the factory Yamahas, who made hay at his expense Down Under. Jorge Lorenzo, who many gave up for dead back in May, could finish the season in second place. As could teammate Valentino Rossi, who, at age 35, is entering the realm of “timeless elegance,” the finely crafted Swiss watch of motorcycle racing.

Rossi & LorenzoThat the events at Phillip Island were unusual is borne out by the fact that the last all-Yamaha podium in MotoGP took place at LeMans in 2008. With Tech 3 Yamaha sophomore Bradley Smith having stayed upright long enough to register his first premier class podium, there was plenty of weirdness to go around. One thing is certain—the new Bridgestone asymmetric fronts don’t work in cold weather. Whether they will work in hot weather, or any weather at all, remains to be seen; it will likely be quite some time before riders volunteer to try them again.

sepang-international-circuit

Sepang International Circuit

MotoGP returns this week to the tropics in Kuala Lumpur, where it’s always mid-summer; no concerns about windy cold weather here. And it returns with Repsol Honda Golden Boy Marc Marquez in a definite slump, having won just once since Indianapolis in August and having crashed in three of the last four events. Back in August, eclipsing Doohan’s 1997 record looked like a foregone conclusion; now, it appears to be a longshot. Personally, early in the year, I used to think that one of the amazing things about Marquez was that he never lost concentration. Now, it appears certain he has lost something; call it concentration, or motivation, or interest; whatever it was back in July is gone. For now.

Simoncelli

Simoncelli’s last race, at Phillip Island.

Recent History at Sepang

A recap of recent events at Sepang must necessarily start with the 2011 round. Heading in the premier class race that day, the charismatic and fearless Marco Simoncelli had survived a series of incidents early in the year that had given him a reputation for recklessness. He crashed out of the lead at Jerez early in the year, and got into a verbal shoving match with Lorenzo during Round 3 at Estoril. He crashed carelessly in the rain at Silverstone, and took Lorenzo out of the race at Assen. He enjoyed his first career podium at Brno, followed that with three solid 4th place finishes, and podiumed in second place at Phillip Island the preceding week. The bizarre, arcing low-side that took his life at Sepang came just as he seemed to be hitting his stride as a rider, when his future was at its very brightest.

Recall that was the same weekend that Moto2 phenom and title contender Marc Marquez hit an unseen puddle of water in FP1 and went ragdoll, ending up with a concussion that gave him double vision for six months and almost stopped his career before it really ever started. This accident, in turn, handed the Moto2 title to Stefan Bradl, who leveraged it into a promotion to the premier class with LCR Honda that he has now worked himself out of, to dangle the preposition.

The 2012 race can be summed up in these four words: James Ellison finished ninth. Six of the 20 starters crashed out of the race. Pedrosa won, followed by a cautious Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner, who was there only to tune up for his annual and final Phillip Island coronation the following week. The race was called after 13 laps. And, just for the record, Nicky Hayden finished fourth in Sepang for the sixth time in his premier class career. If MotoGP were to keep a stat for Most Fourth Place Finishes at a Single Venue (Career), Hayden would own it.

Last year at Sepang, Dani Pedrosa gave one of the performances that, in years past, would have seen him win by 12 seconds. He slingshotted out of the five hole at the start and was sitting on leader Lorenzo’s pipes midway through the first lap. He then basically pushed Lorenzo out of his way and took the lead for good on Lap 5. Teammate Marquez, after a few bumps and grinds with Lorenzo, would take over second place and protect it all day, effectively ending Lorenzo’s quest for a repeat of his 2012 title. That Pedrosa would end up winning by a mere three seconds confirms what we all know—there was no Marc Marquez out there when Dani was running away and hiding from the field in previous years.

This Stuff is Harder than it Looks

WP_20141023_023In traveling to Sepang this week, I’ve learned a few things about this sport that I hadn’t understood before. We watch the riders and crews competing during practice and races and see a lot of concentrated effort focused on maximizing performance. We see none of what goes on behind the scenes. Nothing of the brutal travel schedules that have these guys crossing timezones like they’re lane markers. Nothing of what it takes to pack the entire grid into three 747s immediately after the race so things can get unpacked and on track in time for the next one. Nothing of the high stakes negotiations that take place between owners and sponsors, venues and race organizers, the host countries and the rights holders that ultimately pay the freight for this breathtakingly expensive pursuit.

Malaysia itself is a study in contrasts. Vast, gleaming skyscrapers built in the middle of steaming jungles. All of the trappings of Western culture—Westins, Victoria’s Secrets, and Johnnie Walker Black (who helped me write this article tonight) in the midst of a Muslim-majority country complete with remote villages lacking the most basic services. A vibrant multi-cultural mix of Malays, Chinese, Singaporeans and Indonesians competing in a market economy within a complex set of rules and social mores of which Westerners are completely oblivious. It is, in turn, dramatic, elegant, scary and emblematic of paradise lost. In my home town of Indianapolis, I used to remark on the land under active cultivation only, like, seven miles from the state capitol building. Here, one notices the glass and steel skyscrapers within a few miles of triple canopy jungle.

Malaysia calls itself The Land of Adventure. (They’re not referring to the 20-some hours it takes to get here from New York, which is an adventure in itself.) The adventure will continue this weekend as the big bikes of MotoGP hit the tarmac of the gorgeous Sepang circuit dodging rainstorms in hot pursuit of fame and fortune. We’ll have race results right here on Sunday evening.

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Rossi, Yamaha exploit Honda disaster Down Under

October 19, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Phillip Island Results, by Bruce Allen  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Rossi & LorenzoSimply looking at the final results, the 2014 Tissot Australian Grand Prix appears to have been a clear Yamaha triumph. In fact, it was a demolition derby in which the winners managed to survive, rather than dominate, the proceedings. True, at the end it was an all Yamaha podium, featuring Rossi on top, followed by Lorenzo and first-timer Bradley Smith. But with nine riders having crashed out or retired, the phrase “you need to be in it to win it” has never been more true.

The weekend featured the debut of Bridgestone’s latest creation, the asymmetric front tire, one which looked great on paper but proved to be the ruin of several top riders. Designed to withstand the searing temperatures generated on the left side of the tire in high speed lefthanders, it proved ineffective in cool conditions under braking into the rights, causing the shocker of the day–series leader Marc Marquez crashing out of a four second lead on Lap 18, appearing as though his front tire was made of glass, replicating the almost identical crash Yamaha icon Jorge Lorenzo experienced in FP1. Young Pol Espargaro suffered the same fate on Lap 25 while challenging for his first ever premier class podium. From a spectator’s point of view, it appears Bridgestone still has some work to do on this particular model. Plenty of work, in fact.Dani-dani-pedrosa-9702356-435-380

That the top Honda finisher today was Alvaro Bautista in 6th place demonstrates the scale of the Debacle Down Under for the Minato factory. Repsol #2 Dani Pedrosa got hit in practice by Karel Abraham, then got assaulted again on Lap 6 by crazy “Crazy Joe” Iannone, who plowed into the rear of Pedrosa’s bike without a prayer of getting through cleanly. Iannone and his Pramac Ducati went flying up and off the track, while Pedrosa managed to stay upright, only to pit on Lap 7 in sheer disgust. The incident will be looked at by Race Direction in Sepang, with a stern slap on the wrist possible for the Italian rider, while Pedrosa’s chances to finish second for the season suffered a serious blow. Iannone appeared to suffer a bump on his knee, which qualifies as “just desserts” in our opinion.

The third bizarre incident took place on Lap 19 and involved LCR Honda defector Stefan Bradl and Forward Yamaha’s Aleix Espargaro, who graduates to the factory Suzuki team next year. Similar to the incident on Lap 6 (and an earlier incident at Indianapolis), Bradl attempted to fit himself into space that didn’t exist, smashing into the rear of Espargaro’s bike. Bradl and bike immediately left the premises, while Espargaro continued on for a few hundred yards before pulling off into the grass and smashing his windscreen in frustration. He was probably irked, in part, by the thought that his little brother would overtake him in their season-long battle for 6th place in the standings. But Smith’s podium and Pol’s own crash means they’re still separated by a single point, only now fighting for 7th, as Smith went through on both of them.Bradl

The fourth and final shocker today involved my boy Cal Crutchlow, who had qualified his Ducati GP14 in second place—on a dry track—and had climbed from 9th place on a terrible first lap to third at the end of Lap 22. On the next Lap he blew by Lorenzo into second place and appeared interested in Rossi’s whereabouts, his Desmosedici looking fast, stable and dangerous. On the final lap, with second place firmly in his grasp, and a second podium in three outings his for the taking, he simply lost the front for no visible reason. In doing so, he reminded us of an NFL wide receiver who gets behind the defense, makes the catch, high-steps 30 yards all alone, and spikes the ball on the five yard line. And so it is that Crutchlow, with a higher opinion of his riding ability than almost anyone anywhere, remains stuck at 63 points for the season and, as predicted here last year, sits well behind both of the Tech 3 Yamaha riders, proof that in MotoGP as elsewhere, you gotta be careful what you wish for.

crutchlowAfter the race, Rossi was ecstatic, having won in Phillip Island for the first time since 2005. Lorenzo was dejected, complaining that his front tire was destroyed, and that his poor choice prevented him from challenging for the win. Tech 3 pilot Bradley Smith who, from a distance, appears to have no eyebrows, was shocked and elated to discover, only after the checkered flag flew, that he had podiumed, so busy with what was happening around him that he was completely unaware of what had been going on in front. He acknowledged getting pushed around earlier in the race, and was suitably self-effacing during the press conference, attributing his first premier class podium to luck and the work of his team. It is gradually becoming easier to understand why Herve Poncharal chose Smith for his #2 bike back in 2012 rather than Scott Redding, although Redding’s future is exceedingly bright, with the Marc VDS team soon to be in the premier class fold.

Calamity at the Top = Celebration at the Bottom

With the likes of Marquez, Pedrosa, Bradl, et al failing to finish today, it became an all-you-can-eat banquet for the back markers of the premier class. Danilo Petrucci, the heavily-bearded hope of Octo IodaRacing and soon to be Pramac #2, saw his season points total increase by 44%, adding four points to his previous total of nine. For Avintia’s Mike di Meglio it was a 50% increase, the last rider crossing the finish line adding two points to his previous four.

From there, the percentage increases were otherworldly. Alex de Angelis, having taken Colin Edwards’ seat on the Forward Racing team, doubled his point total for the season by finishing ninth, going from 7 points to 14 for the year. Another big winner today, in percentage terms, was Paul Byrd’s hapless Michael Laverty. Laverty, who is seeing his MotoGP career come to an end just as his brother Eugene’s is starting, experienced a 150% increase in his point total for the season in just one cool, windy afternoon. Coming into Round 16, he had amassed two (2) points in 2014. Today, he earned four. And although this may not sound like much, in truth, well, it really isn’t. Byrd and Laverty have some fierce defenders amongst the readers of this column, but they’re just not terribly good at either the racing or the business of raising money and bamboozling sponsors. Fans of David versus Goliath will applaud every single point these guys earn, but there has to be a better way to make a living than this.

The king of the have-nots today, however, was Hectic Hector Barbera, once again propelled by Ducati power for Avintia after a year and a half away from Pramac Racing. Not only was he the top Open class finisher today, but his 11 point, fifth-place finish, on top of the three points he had earned all season before today, represent an almost incalculable increase of 366%.

That, my friends, is some racing. A day of functionality in a season of despair.

The Road to Kuala Lampur

The Repsol Honda duo of Marc Marquez and Dani Pedrosa were the big losers today, Marquez coming back to the pack while Pedrosa dropped from a tie for second for the season to fourth place. We will be traveling to Malaysia this coming week to keep an eye on things at Sepang next weekend, posting a few extra bits between now and then on Facebook and Twitter .

Unlike Phillip Island, Sepang is a very Honda-friendly place, and we look for Marc and Dani to get back some of the mojo they left behind in Australia. But Rossi and Lorenzo, each having now won twice this season, both believe they can compete with the Hondas, so it promises to be an exciting “penultimate” round of racing. Watch this space during the coming week for news and views from the self-styled Land of Adventure.

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Pedrosa, Rossi and Lorenzo ready to rumble for 2nd place

October 18, 2014

MotoGP 2014 Phillip Island Preview, by Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

In what is likely to be a preview of the rest of the decade in MotoGP, three Aliens not named Marquez will begin their assault on the vice-championship this week at Phillip Island. Heading into Round 16 Down Under, a mere three points separate Yamaha ironman Jorge Lorenzo from teammate Valentino Rossi, who sits tied with Repsol Honda mini-Marc Dani Pedrosa. While world champion Marc Marquez’ mom dusts off some space in the family trophy case for the 2014 hardware, there’s plenty of racing left this season. victory helmet

Late in 2012, while MotoGP legend Casey Stoner was busy winning his sixth consecutive Australian GP here, we suggested it might be fitting to rename the track Stoner Island, an idea widely ignored in Australia but adopted, strangely enough, in San Marino, which renamed its own circuit in memory of the late Marco Simoncelli. Given the fact that Simoncelli missed his chance to win a premier class race, while Stoner’s victory count is somewhere in the 40’s, you wouldn’t expect much resistance to the idea from the locals, who have precious little else to brag about. A couple of tennis players from back in the 60’s, maybe. Whatever.

Who, you may be wondering, holds the record for the second-most wins at Phillip Island, presuming Stoner owns the record? I mean, after all, we’re squarely in the midst of trying to generate some excitement over an impending battle for second place in 2014. So, again, who has the second most career wins at Phillip Island? Casey Stoner, that’s who, with his six. Valentino Rossi, with seven, holds the record, with one win having come in the 500cc class in 2001 and two in the 250cc class in 1998 and 1999. OK, so Stoner had the most premier class wins; we’ll give him an asterisk for his trouble.

Now, for $500 and the game, who won the race in 2006, in between Rossi’s four in a row and Stoner’s six? Nicky Hayden? No, dude has only three career wins in the premier class, none of which came in Australia. Dani Pedrosa? No, he was a sullen, aggressive rookie in 2006 and finished 15th that year. Drum roll, please…the winner of the 2006 Australian Grand Prix was… Marco Melandri onboard the Gresini Honda.

More Recent History at Phillip Island

STONER_PI2012 marked the last of Stoner’s six wins at his home crib. That year, Jorge Lorenzo struggled to second place, some nine seconds in arrears. Five seconds behind Lorenzo was Cal Crutchlow on the Tech 3 Yamaha, scoring his second career podium in the premier class that day. Pedrosa, pedaling as hard as he could over the second half of the season to catch leader Jorge Lorenzo, lost his marbles on Lap 2 and saw his day and his season come to another dismal end. The best race-in-the-race that day saw Andrea Dovizioso win a thrilling run to the flag, punking both Alvaro Bautista and Stefan Bradl and their respective Hondas by a few hundredths of a second.

Last year’s race was a fiasco from start to finish. Over the previous winter, the track owners had invested $3 million resurfacing the circuit, making it the grippiest, fastest circuit on the calendar. And, incidentally, the most rubber-hungry surface on earth. With its host of high-speed bends, the riders were generating enormous amounts of heat in the tires, which were decomposing beneath them as fast as the crews could put them on. Bridgestone, in its infinite wisdom (read: unwillingness to spend the money testing their tires on the new surface), arrived in Australia to a symphony of complaints, ranging from Carmelo Ezpeleta to the kid who drives Jorge Lorenzo’s scooter in the pit area.

By Sunday, Race Direction was issuing Orders of the Day every half hour. The race was shortened from 27 laps to 26, then to 19, then to 19 with a mandatory tire change by the end of Lap 10. The teams set up two bikes for each rider, each equipped with soft tires and half a tank of gas, and the lights went out. As Lap 10 was ending, Lorenzo and Marquez were leading, running shoulder to shoulder. Lorenzo exited into pit lane as Marquez, inexplicably, kept right on going, only to pit at the end of Lap 11.marc-marquez-black-flag

The combination of a flurry of ad hoc rule changes being translated into three or four different languages with riders’ lives and millions of dollars of machinery hanging in the balance proved too much for Marquez and his team, whose late tire change resulted in a black flag DQ on Lap 15, handing the race to Lorenzo. The win kept the Mallorcan in contention for the title, which he only grudgingly surrendered two weeks later in Valencia. Pedrosa and Rossi made up the rest of the podium, with Rossi pipping Crutchlow and Bautista at the finish for the only satisfying moment of the entire day.

You Heard It Here Last

We have been somewhat derelict in keeping up with the rider changes happening in the second echelon of MotoGP in preparation for the 2015 season. This is due in part to the fact that every single motorcycle publication on earth has published the abundant team press releases, including ourselves. At this point, all but two or three seats have been claimed.

Familiar faces changing livery for 2015 are headlined by Cal Crutchlow and Stefan Bradl, as the Brit takes over for Bradl on the #1 LCR Honda and Bradl downshifts to join Forward Racing. Danilo Petrucci goes from the Ioda Racing frying pan to the Pramac Ducati fire, where he will join Yonny Hernandez on the junior Corse team. And Aleix Espargaro gets to realize his dream of riding for a factory team, as he moves from Forward Racing’s Open class machine to the new Suzuki GSX-RR.

At least four new faces will grace the grid next season. The Drive 7 Aspar team is giving Hiro Aoyama the boot in favor of Eugene Laverty, who joins the premier class, alongside teammate Nicky Hayden, after several productive seasons in World Superbike. With Paul Byrd folding up his tent next year, we are spared the sight of two Lavertys on the grid, as brother Michael is “evaluating opportunities” in WSBK and British Superbike, i.e., scrambling to find some kind of ride on road courses rather than dirt ovals.

Up-and-coming Moto2 grad Maverick Vinales brings his game to MotoGP joining Aleix Espargaro on the factory Suzuki. Forward Racing, having ejected Colin Edwards and, in turn, been jilted by the elder Espargaro, will make a go of it with Bradl and Frenchman Loris Baz, all 6’3” of him, who will try to fold himself around the Yamaha powered machine, elbows and knees sticking out all over the place, sure to remind some of us of Super Sic the way he used to look on his Gresini Honda. But without question, the highest profile rookie heading into 2015 will be Jack Miller, the young Australian skipping a grade, moving directly to the premier class from Moto3 on a three year deal, the first of which is likely to be spent in various hospitals around the globe. Crikey, but that’s a steep learning curve, Mr. Miller.

Fausto Gresini, in his eternal quest for Italian riders for his satellite squad, has abandoned his relationship with Honda in favor of a low budget operation with Aprilia for the next few years, with Alvaro Bautista somehow retaining his #1 seat with the team, a second rider yet to be named. Scott Redding moves to Marc VDS Racing and their shiny new factory spec Honda, which should elevate the Brit’s game and set up some interesting fights with countryman Crutchlow on the same bike. Hayden, Laverty, Miller and Karel Abraham will be the beneficiaries of an upgrade in the so-called customer Hondas, as the Japanese factory switches out the severely underpowered RCV1000R in favor of what they’re calling the 213V-RS, powered by this year’s fire-breathing RC213V engine in conjunction with a standard ECU and complete with Open class fuel, engine, testing and tire concessions.

Like I said 1400 words ago, there’s still plenty going on in MotoGP. The Marquez Years are upon us, and we must look past young Marc, seeking our pleasure in the profane, the ridiculous and the sublime, all of which are in lavish supply as the 2014 season wends its way to the finish line at Valencia in November.

We’ll have Phillip Island results right here on Sunday evening.

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MotoGP Phillip Island 2013 Results

October 20, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  An edited version of this story, complete with hi-rez photos, can be found on Motorcycle.com.

Marquez DQ leaves Lorenzo still breathing 

Round 16 of the MotoGP 2013 world championship was all about the track.  The new racing surface, installed at the cost of millions, provided outstanding grip for the riders, but was chewing up tires at a stunning rate during the practice sessions leading up to the race.  Race Direction was putting out one-time rule changes as fast as they could print them.  The last of these ensnared Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquez, resulted in his disqualification, and left the title up for grabs for at least another week. 

Usually, the Australian Grand Prix is a 27 lap affair won by Casey Stoner.  With Stoner having retired after last season and the racing surface replaced in the interim, it looked like business as usual following last week’s tilt in Malaysia.  But once the practice sessions started at Phillip Island on Friday, Bridgestone, the official tire supplier of the premier class, realized it had a problem on its hands.  The riders were putting up great lap times, but the tires were disintegrating at an alarming rate.

After a series of meetings with Dorna officials, it was announced on Saturday morning that the race was being shortened to 26 laps, and that riders would have to make a mandatory pit stop to change bikes by the end of Lap 14.  Such an announcement had never been made in the history of the series.  But the trouble didn’t stop there.  After qualifications, and more discussions, it was announced that the race was being limited to 19 laps, and that riders would have to make a mandatory bike change by the end of Lap 9 and no later than the end of Lap 10.

Marc Marquez’ team apparently missed the email.  It was his team’s failure, not the rider’s, which led to mayhem, a black flag for the series leader, and at least another week before the 2013 title can be settled.

The teams were undoubtedly up late into the night devising their strategies for the race.  They would all be using two bikes, each with a soft front tire, half a tank of gas, and no worries about tire conservation.  After the pit stop, they would be re-entering the race on cold tires.  There were concerns about entering the track from pit lane with on-track bikes running around 200 kph at the entry point.

Enough about the Rules—What about the Race?

Big Three - AustraliaWith a front row of defending world champion and Yamaha strongman Jorge Lorenzo, series leader Marquez, and fading star Valentino Rossi, the race got off to a clean start.  Lorenzo stormed into the lead, followed closely by the Repsol duo of Marquez and Pedrosa, and a wild first lap featured contact between all three.  By the end of Lap 1, it was Lorenzo, Marquez and Pedrosa up front, with a second group comprised of Rossi, Tech 3 Yamaha rookie Bradley Smith, FUN&GO hazard Alvaro Bautista and Smith’s teammate Cal Crutchlow.  By Lap 5, Smith had dropped back, and Marquez appeared to be lining up Lorenzo for a potentially championship-clinching pass.

At this point, as the riders approached the start/finish line, the pitboards started putting up reminders about the number of laps remaining before the riders had to enter the pits and change bikes.  The riders were maintaining their respective positions, but by Lap 9 only 2/10ths of a second separated leader Lorenzo from Pedrosa in third place.  It soon became apparent that Team Yamaha was better prepared for what was to happen than was the Repsol Honda crew.

As Lap 9 ended, Pedrosa entered pit lane, changed bikes, and got caught speeding coming back onto the track, which would later force him to allow Marquez through and, at the end of the day, amount to nothing.  As Lap 10 was ending, the entire place expected to see Lorenzo and Marquez enter pit lane.  The veteran Lorenzo, with his experienced crew, veered left as expected, while Marquez unaccountably kept right on going.  The poor British race announcers, Gavin Emmett and Nick Harris, were suddenly on their feet shouting, prancing about, and speculating wildly as to the possible consequences of Marquez’ error.  A ride-through penalty?  More points on his license?  A back-of-the-grid start at Motegi?

As Marquez re-entered the track on what was now Lap 12, he veered into Lorenzo’s line, and Lorenzo gave him a good smack, knocking a piece of Marquez’ brake lever/cover flying, and allowing Pedrosa through.  The race, and the speculation, continued, with Marquez going through on Pedrosa on Lap 14.  Finally, on Lap 15, the dreaded black flag appeared, and #93 was done for the day.

In the end, Lorenzo won comfortably by 7 seconds over Pedrosa, while Rossi eventually vanquished both Bautista and Crutchlow for another tarnished podium.  Today’s top ten finishers looked like this:

Top Ten finishers 2013 Phillip Island.

The Big Picture

Not much has changed in the 2013 standings, despite the dramatic turn of events Down Under.  Lorenzo now trails Marquez by 18 points, and needs to thump the rookie pretty good at Motegi to have a puncher’s chance of repeating as world champion in Valenciana.  Dani Pedrosa’s fortunes hang by a thread, and are out of his control.  Trailing Marquez by 34 points and Lorenzo by 16, he needs a world of woe to befall both riders in Japan to have anything beyond a mathematical chance of winning his first premier class title in Spain next month.  In all likelihood his championship hopes will expire next week.

Although Jorge Lorenzo gets plenty of props, has a room full of trophies and a distinguished body of work to show for his MotoGP career, one of the things he doesn’t seem to get much credit for is his mental toughness.  At the start of today’s race, with Repsol Hondas banging into him right and left, he was giving as good as he got, conceding nothing.  When Marquez got in his way on Lap 12, he brushed him aside, as if he weren’t going well over 100 mph on two wheels.

In a race in which he had nothing to lose, Lorenzo put the hammer down, damned the torpedoes, and went for all the marbles.  When today looks hopeless and there’s no tomorrow, many of us will throw up our hands and surrender to the inevitable.

There’s no surrender in Jorge Lorenzo.

A Look Back at the 2013 Australian Grand Prix

The big loser today was, of course, the Phillip Island Circuit.  The track operators invested heavily in re-paving the entire course, and now have an un-rideable track on their hands.  In the big money world of MotoGP, no one wants fingers pointed at them, blaming them for conditions or circumstances that can have a material effect on the outcome of an entire season.  Such is the state of Phillip Island.

Perhaps the most picturesque circuit on the MotoGP calendar, attendance today was under 32,000—about what you get at an average Boston Red Sox game—and the operators are facing a massive “Now what?”  Re-pave the track again?  Sue the contractor (which is what we would do here in the U.S.)?

A weekend that started under brilliant sunshine produced a flawed race run under leaden skies and that ended, somewhat appropriately, in the rain.  Phillip Island, which should really be re-named Stoner Island, is, for now, the venue for Round 18 on the 2014 MotoGP calendar.  Unless the owners find a solution to avert another cluster that was today’s race, we may find ourselves back to an 18 round season next year.

phillip island

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Phillip Island – Lorenzo’s Last Stand

October 16, 2013

by Bruce Allen.  The version of this story  on Motorcycle.com has some great photos.

Yamaha star needs win to keep his faint hopes alive 

This MotoGP season has developed an air of inevitability.  Not that Repsol Honda rookie Marc Marquez is going to win the 2013 title; that’s pretty much in the bag.  It’s entirely possible he could win the next six or eight world championships.  The young Spaniard may do for MotoGP what Michael Schumacher did years ago for F-1—turn it into his personal playground, at the cost of much of its popularity. 

Despite Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta’s efforts to level the playing field as regards equipment (which could easily take years, given the resistance he faces from the Hondas and Yamahas of the world), the observation that MotoGP is 80% rider and 20% bike is mostly true.  Marquez won the 125 class when he was 17, and would have won two Moto2 titles had he not splashed out in Sepang in 2011.  If you were to put the entire premier class grid on identical bikes, there’s no question in my mind that Marquez would win 75% of the races, for as long as you wanted to run them.  Against Lorenzo, Pedrosa, Rossi and the rest.  No question.  He’s that good.

Compare his premier class rookie season to that of his role model.  In his first six races in 2000, Valentino Rossi, the impudent Italian fast mover, crashed twice, finished 12th, 11th and 3rd twice, earning a total of 41 points.  Marquez, in a larger grid, crashed once, finished on the podium five times, had a win, and pulled down 93 points.  Rossi earned 209 points in 2000 over 16 rounds (13 points/race); Marquez is on track to reach perhaps 360 points over 18 rounds (20 points/race).  Rossi soon became a MotoGP icon, and years after his last competitive season in 2010, he is still recognized around the world and is the fifth-highest earning driver in all motorsports.

Brolly Girl SepangStatistically speaking, Marquez is almost 50% more productive than Rossi was in his rookie year.  Not to mention he’s Spanish, a country that’s mad about MotoGP, in a league that runs almost a quarter of its races in Spain.  Talk about a rock star.  Repsol acknowledged as much last Sunday, installing a vastly upgraded brolly girl in place of his customary helper, who resembles Yoko Ono with a migraine.

As Woody Hayes, the legendarily run-oriented Ohio State football coach observed about the forward pass, “Three things can happen, and two of them are bad.”  Obviously, in MotoGP, injuries play a major role in the fortunes of the top riders.  Despite improvements in leathers, bikes, helmets and the tracks themselves, going 200 mph on a motorcycle is, as it were, a blueprint for disaster.  For a vivid example, check out Alex de Angelis in practice for the 2010 Moto2 race at Jerez.  (BTW, de Angelis walked away from it.)  Marquez could, yet this year, suffer a career-ending crash, exposing the folly of this speculation.  But if he is fortunate enough to avoid a series of bone-crushing high sides over the next decade, he looks ready to rule MotoGP until someone (Alex Rins?) grows enough whiskers to mount a serious challenge.  No one currently running in the premier class has the chops.

Weren’t You Going to Discuss Jorge Lorenzo?

For defending champion and Yamaha golden boy Jorge Lorenzo, the only thing that will allow him to repeat would be a significant crash by Marquez.  Soon.  Repsol Honda’s unlucky #2 Dani Pedrosa will, in all likelihood, be eliminated from contention this weekend, leaving Lorenzo as the last man standing in Marquez’ way.  And even if Lorenzo were to run the table—a dubious proposition, with Motegi on the horizon—he would need a complete, utter collapse by Marquez, which just doesn’t appear likely, to become a three-time champion in 2013.

Marquez showed me something this past Sunday in Sepang, once he had gone through on Lorenzo into second place.  With teammate Pedrosa a few seconds in front of him, and plenty of time on his hands, Marquez elected to play it safe, gather his 20 points, and move onto the next venue.  If he were truly a mad dog, a pathological risk taker, he would have put the hammer down and gone after Pedrosa.  I’ve said before that Dani Pedrosa, after countless surgeries, is old for his age.  Marquez, by contrast, is mature for his age while still young enough to heal quickly from the “bumps and bruises” (paging Cal Crutchlow) inherent in the sport.

Anyway, Jorge Lorenzo had his game face on in Sepang, and still managed to lose to both Repsol Hondas.  Phillip Island is a far friendlier track for the Yamaha M-1, and Lorenzo has a decent chance to win on Sunday, further prolonging his 2013 agony.  If I were Jorge, I’d have my post-race press conference blurb already prepared, ignore the questions, and talk about how I only enjoy winning titles in even-numbered years.  Because, even if he’s still alive after Australia, he’s pretty much toast in Japan.  With two wins in the last nine years at Motegi, Honda’s home track, putting your money on Yamaha, even with Jorge Lorenzo in charge, is a fool’s wager.

Quick Hitters

Nicky Hayden, according to Speedweek.com, will be riding the production Honda RCV1000R for the Aspar team in 2014.  With current Aspar CRT champion Aleix Espargaro on his way to join Colin Edwards at NGM Forward Racing on a rented Yamaha M-1 next season (displacing Claudio Corti), Aspar suggested that his choices for the #2 seat on his 2014 team were limited to Hiro Aoyoma, Eugene Laverty and Yonny Hernandez.  This presumes that his current #2, Randy de Puniet, takes a year off testing for Suzuki before returning to the grid in 2015 on a factory Suzuki.

Hayden, unceremoniously dumped by Ducati in mid-season—that must sting—now has engine problems for what remains of the 2013 season.  The engine he blew at Sepang was his last new one, and the other four are pretty beat up.  According to MotoGP.com, Hayden may have to unwrap a sixth engine this week, becoming the second rider ever to start from pit lane as punishment for failing to manage his engine allotment.  The first, you will recall, was Valentino Rossi in 2011.  Who remembers where that took place?

If Marc Marquez manages to collect another penalty point this week or next, he will be forced to start the following race from the back of the grid.  He’s probably not too worried about the prospect.  During his first Moto2 season in 2011, after an incident during practice at Phillip Island, Marquez was banished to the back of the grid, starting in 38th place.  He finished 3rd that day.

What About the Weather Down Under?

According to Weather.com, conditions at Phillip Island this weekend will be seasonal, which is to say cool and windy.  Temps will be in the high 60’s and low 70’s with a stiff breeze out of the north, making it feel colder than it actually is.  Morning practice sessions will be treacherous on cold tires.

Casey Stoner will be in the house, getting his props from Dorna in recognition of a distinguished, if whiney, career. The temptation to climb
 aboard Stefan Bradl’s idle RC213V must be overwhelming, but I doubt he will succumb.

Stoner testing

 

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