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MotoGP Valencia Preview

November 6, 2017

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Dovizioso vs. Marquez: David vs. Goliath 2017 

So, 2017 has all come down to this–a technical showdown between Repsol Honda studmuffin Marc Marquez, gripping a 21-point lead, and a determined Andrea Dovizioso, virtually hopeless onboard the Ducati GP17, for all the marbles on Sunday. Even if Dovi wins, Marquez has to finish worse than 11th in order to choke this one away. To clarify, it is a showdown in only the most technical, theoretical sense. It will take a Dovizioso win and direct intervention by the racing gods to keep Marc Marquez from MotoGP title #4 on Sunday. 

Decades ago a nominally Catholic friend of mine came up with a premise as to which team eventually wins the NFL Super Bowl each season, The Blessed Quarterback Theory. Each year it’s just the blessed quarterback’s team that wins, regardless of anyone’s skill or resume. Paging Mark Rypien and Trent Dilfer. Works the same way in MotoGP. You look at the saves Marquez has made since coming up. Jorge Lorenzo was blessed in 2015. If Dovi somehow pulls it off on Sunday—millions hope he will—it will be because he, not Marquez, was the blessed rider in 2017. Otherwise, it’s status quo ante.

Recent history at Valencia 

The 2014 race was wet-ish and the title had been decided weeks earlier. Lorenzo slid out of the race late in the day. Marquez took the largely decorative win joined on the podium by Rossi and Pedrosa. The day’s procession culminated in the coronation of Marquez for the second time in his first two years, and the MotoGP world appeared to be his oyster.

No one who reads this stuff is likely to forget the 2015 season finale, at which Jorge Lorenzo won from pole while loathed championship rival and “teammate” Valentino Rossi, having been penalized for his antics with Marquez in Sepang the previous round, was forced to start from the back of the grid and could only (only) make his way back to fourth place at the finish.  There was additional controversy as to why the Repsol Honda team appeared to ride as wingmen for Lorenzo, never seriously challenging him over the last few laps.

Last year, Lorenzo was anxious for a win in his final race for Yamaha, wanting to go out on top after a difficult season.  Marquez wanted to cap off his third premier class title with an exclamation point, as well as to avoid an awkward podium celebration.  Jorge ended up winning the race, Marquez secured the title, and the podium celebration was awkward, the Spanish national anthem blaring in the background, Lorenzo over-celebrating and Marquez looking somewhat abashed, as if he were crashing Lorenzo’s party, along with Andrea Iannone, who was, in fact, crashing Lorenzo’s party.

Of the Aliens or former Aliens, Pedrosa has three wins and three podia in 11 starts. Rossi has two wins and six podia to show for 17 starts since 2000, but the most recent of those was in 2004, when Marquez was 11 years old. Jorge Lorenzo, in eight premier class starts, has four wins and a third-place finish in 2009 to go along with several violent DNFs. Vinales has bupkus, but this is a Yamaha track. Or used to be.

Marquez can boast a win, two places and a show in four MotoGP tries, barely breaking a sweat. Just once, I’d like to see him race here in anger with something on the line.  Back in 2012, he won the Moto2 race here after starting 33rd. As for the factory Ducati team, you have one rider who desperately needs to win on Sunday and his currently winless teammate who has dominated at Ricardo Tormo in recent years.

This could get interesting. What is that term again?  Team orders?

A Word About Valentino Rossi

“You have to believe in what they can do, not what they’re doing.”

—A.J. Hinch, Manager, World Champion Houston Astros

Over long periods of time, we all evaluate what these riders have done. The coach was referring to his leadoff hitter, and I’m talking about the folks who expect #46 to win his 10th, and last, MotoGP title in 2018. With Rossi, an objective assessment of what he’s done since his last title in 2009 suggests he peaked around 2008-2009. But the folks who wear goofy yellow wigs and set off smoke bombs and bombard me with constructive criticism believe in what Rossi can do—they’ve watched him do it for years—not what he’s doing. He is arguably the best MotoGP rider of all time. Just. Not. Now. Now, he is competitive—highly tranched, but not realistically expected to win titles. Unless you’ve got the wig and the smoke bombs and the Kool-Aid…

Final 2017 Tranches

After Round 16    Phillip Island 

Tranche 1:   Marquez

Tranche 2:   Rossi, Vinales, Dovi, Pedrosa, Zarco, A Espargaro, P Espargaro

Tranche 3:   Petrucci, Rins, Iannone, Redding, Miller, Crutchlow, Lorenzo

Tranche 4:   Baz, Bautista, Smith, Abraham, Rabat

Tranche 5:   Lowes, (Folger), Barbera 

After Round 17    Sepang 

Tranche 1:   Marquez, Dovizioso↑

Tranche 2:   Rossi, Vinales, Pedrosa, Zarco, A Espargaro*, Lorenzo↑

Tranche 3:   Petrucci, Redding, Miller, Crutchlow, (P Espargaro)↓, Bautista↑ 

Tranche 4:   Baz, Smith, Rabat, Iannone↓, Rins↓

Tranche 5:   Lowes, (Folger), Barbera, Abraham↓ 

After Sunday’s race we will compare the above tranching to the actual results, i.e., how many of the riders were in the correct group according to the final points. Folger, a top tenner all year, will get hosed, but that’s the way it goes. He would likely be a 3. 

(Wonder how Zarco and Folger feel about moving UP to the 2017 Tech 3 Yamaha M1 next season. Wonder if they’ll ask to stick with the 2016 iteration.) Zarco’s bank account gonna get laced in 2019 fo’ sho’. 

Final Thoughts and Weekend Forecast

Perhaps the reason Valencia is awarded the last race each season is the weather. Not that it’s always great, but because when it is great, it’s really great. The long- range forecast for the weekend is sunny, breezy, dry and perfect, with daytime temps reaching 70° F. Enough sun to warm the track and tires for the riders, and paradise for the teams and fans.

As I’ve said elsewhere, I think the best thing that could happen to this race would be for Marquez to blow an engine, slide or go walky out of the points in the first lap or two. This would eliminate any touchy, don’t-be-the-guy-who-cost-Marquez-the-title riding around him, which ain’t nobody need.

What it would do is make for an astonishingly meaningful race if Dovizioso is at or near the front with one or two of the other fast movers. Teammate and homeboy Lorenzo, who desperately wants his first win on the Ducati and has team orders to “help” Dovi. Homeboy Dani Pedrosa, untitled in the premier class, with team orders to beat Dovizioso. Homeboy Maverick Vinales, whose bike historically loves a dry Ricardo Tormo and who needs to fulfill my preseason prediction of four wins. Cal Crutchlow. Andrea Iannone. Sam Lowes. Someone.

So, as the sports seasons—football, basketball, hockey—start getting juicy in the United States, MotoGP is preparing to call it another year.  Reason #644 in my book 1000 Reasons MotoGP is Invisible in the United States, subtitled “Yet Another Reason I’m Not Rich and Famous.”

We are looking forward to a memorable race on Sunday, and will have results and analysis right here sometime, um, Sunday. Probably earlier if it is revealed that Andrea Dovizioso is the blessed rider of 2017. “Dog Bites Man” can wait until later in the day.

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Posted in 2017 MotoGP, Moto, Moto2, MotoGP, MotoGP Valencia, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News, The grand prix of Valencia, Valencia, Valentino Rossi | 6 Comments »

MotoGP Valencia Setup

October 30, 2017

© Bruce Allen.                      October 30, 2017

Nine years since Casey Stoner won on a Ducati at Valencia, yet Dovizioso has to win on Sunday or else. Yamahas have done OK, too.

Assume Marquez slides out of the race on Lap 1. I know, I know.

In addition to Dovi, not counting Jorge Lorenzo, who wouldn’t dare, there are still four or five guys who are ready, willing and able to win in Valencia, which means Dovi has his work cut out for him. Guys who could be leading or closing on him as the last lap approaches. Maverick Vinales. Johann Zarco. Rossi? Probably not, for a number of reasons. Dani Pedrosa, Marquez’ wingman for the weekend, who could win the race and give his teammate a title at the same time. Who doesn’t give a shit about Andrea Dovizioso or Ducati. Cal Crutchlow. Aleix.

So, what we may get is what we asked for—a last lap battle for a title—between Dovizioso and somebody, just not Marquez, with nine years of history running against the Italian. Marquez, one believes, is not going to do too much fighting this weekend. Dovi is going to do nothing but fight. And I can’t imagine too many people getting too geeked up watching Dovi win and Marquez finish a distant sixth, say, and winning the title anyway.

If, on the other hand, Marquez is running by himself in 7th place with two laps left, riders who might have been deferring to Dovi, if any, could change their minds and go after him. Even Lorenzo, whose team orders would have likely expired by then. I would pay good money to see Lorenzo and Dovi going neck and neck during the final lap, even with the title effectively out of reach. Lorenzo wanting his first win on the Ducati. Dovi wanting to keep his disappearing title chance alive.

That would be worth the price of admission. In fact, the odds, as I see them, are pretty high that we will have a dramatic last lap or three, with the title possibly on the line. Take THAT, F-1.

If this site had the horsepower, I would offer up a real survey.

Survey: Rider Most Likely to Fight with Dovizioso over the Last Two Laps:

◊ Maverick Vinales
◊ Johann Zarco
◊ Dani Pedrosa
◊ Cal Crutchlow
◊ Aleix Espargaro

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Posted in 2017 MotoGP, 2017 MotoGP championship, Andrea Dovizioso, Dani Pedrosa, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, Maverick Vinales, Moto, MotoGP, MotoGP Valencia, Valencia, Valentino Rossi | 6 Comments »

MotoGP 2016 Valencia Results

November 13, 2016

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Lorenzo ends his tenure with Yamaha in style 

Heading into the finale of the 2016 season, the atmosphere in Valencia was mostly celebratory.  The title had been decided, the silly season was well over, and most of the riders were competing for pride alone.  The Ricardo Tormo circuit here is one of the top venues in this sport, loved by the Spanish riders and most of the others, too.  Bragging rights during the offseason are nice and all, but pale in comparison to a season finale with a title on the line such as we saw in 2013 and last year. 

During the practice sessions on Friday and Saturday one got the feeling that this one would boil down to a duel between Honda world champion Marc Marquez and Jorge Lorenzo, who is defecting to the factory Ducati team after nine years and three titles with Big Blue.  Lorenzo was anxious for a win in his final race for Yamaha, wanting to go out on top after a difficult season.  Marquez wanted to cap off his third premier class title with an exclamation point, as well as to avoid an awkward podium celebration.

In the end, it didn’t rain.  El Gato fished his wish, while Marquez had to be satisfied with simply being king of the moto racing world.  Jorge won the race, Marquez won the title, and the podium celebration was awkward, the Spanish national anthem blaring in the background, Lorenzo over-celebrating (like he had just won another world championship), and Marquez looking somewhat abashed, as if he was crashing Lorenzo’s party.  The third rider on the podium, Andrea Iannone, did nothing maniacal and sacked up with a t-shirt thanking Ducati for allowing him to break so many expensive motorcycles before getting shunted off to the Suzuki team for next year.

Jorge Lorenzo and Q2 on Saturday 

Having been out of town all weekend, I was finally able to locate an internet connection in northern Arizona and catch Q2 late Saturday night.  It may have been the most interesting 15 minutes of the weekend.  Watching it, one inferred that Lorenzo was determined to start the race from pole.

After his out lap, he set a new track record with the first lap ever by a motorcycle under 1:30 in the history of the track.  He pitted, changed his front tire, got up to speed on his second out lap and proceeded to set a second track record before heading back to the pits.  Again, his crew put new rubber on his M-1 and sent him back out.  Again, after his out lap he set a third track record, claimed pole, and sent a message to the grid:  Kindly stay the hell out of my way tomorrow or my crew and I will convert you to a grease spot on the tarmac.  Marquez and Rossi made up the rest of the front row, to the dismay of riders who had been entertaining visions of becoming the 10th rider to win a race this season.

Lorenzo vs. Marquez on Sunday 

Though Marquez and Suzuki wonderkid Maverick Vinales were quickest in the morning warmup, while the factory Yamahas loitered in sixth and seventh, very few people could have been thinking this wasn’t going to feature the winners of the last four premier class titles battling hammer and tongs all day Sunday.

The race was over in ten seconds.

When the lights went out, Lorenzo, taking the hole shot, appeared to have been launched from a cannon, while Marquez, fighting inertia, gravity and a number of other laws of physics, found himself buried in the vicinity of sixth or seventh place in the first few turns, at a narrow, tight track that makes overtaking difficult.  At the same time, Andrea Iannone materialized on Lorenzo’s back wheel, after having started seventh.  The lead group formed up quickly, comprised of Lorenzo, Iannone, Vinales, Rossi, Marquez and Dani Pedrosa, making a cameo after his seventh (!) collarbone surgery a month ago.

True, there was a bunch of jockeying around all over the track, but in terms of material effect there were basically three “events” today.  First, Lorenzo got away and started laying down a series of 1:31 laps, riding on rails, the old Jorge back and in charge.  The second occurred on Lap 19, when Marquez finally got past Rossi into second place, Rossi tuckered out from spending the entire afternoon jousting with Iannone.  The third took place on Lap 29 when Iannone, who appeared to be out of energy and rubber several laps earlier, went through on Rossi, pushing The Doctor off the podium.

It should be noted that Marquez was chasing down Lorenzo over the last four or five laps, closing the gap from over five seconds to under two seconds.  Had the race lasted another two or three laps, there is no doubt here that Marquez would have won and avoided the aforementioned awkward podium celebration.  The hard front tire Marquez had chosen appeared to have a lot more life left in it than Lorenzo’s medium, which appeared to be shedding in some super slo-mo shots late in the race.  Just sayin’.

Bits and Pieces 

Cal Crutchlow, seemingly everyone’s favorite rider, took advantage of Dani Pedrosa’s crash on Lap 7 (which opened the door for a sixth-place finish for the year) by sliding off on Lap 17, apparently not wishing to kick a swarthy, diminutive Spanish rider when he’s down.  And Jack Miller, seemingly everyone’s second-favorite rider, finished 15th and earned yet another point.  Thanks to both for not messing with my assertion that neither is an Alien-class rider.

Mika Kallio rode his KTM machine well for much of the day before retiring with electronics issues.  Bradley Smith and Pol Espargaro look to have a long year in store for themselves in 2017, but I, for one, expect KTM to make great strides in the next few years.  Despite being a low budget operation in MotoGP, they have that German engineering thing working for themselves; a little early success next year would be great.  Most folks are dazzled by the progress shown by Suzuki over the past two seasons.  KTM (and Aprilia) will benefit from the concessions available to non-race winning brands.  Assuming they can manage the finances, it would be great to have five or six competitive constructors filling the grid in a few years.

Today’s win put a halt to the disturbing victory drought that has haunted Lin Jarvis since Catalunya.  Losing Jorge Lorenzo to Ducati is bad, true, but gaining Maverick Vinales, The Next Great Rider, is good.  Better, perhaps, given the eight-year difference in their ages.

Happy Trails to You

The most interesting season in recent memory is now history.  More than half of the top riders will be on new equipment starting Tuesday, which supports my contention that next year’s title fight will be primarily between Rossi and Marquez.  I spent the last few days driving a rented Ford Expedition around Arizona and can assure any of you still reading that I would have been faster and more comfortable in one of my own smaller, slower, more familiar cars.  One must assume that the same is true in grand prix motorcycle racing.

We end the 2016 campaign the same way we end every campaign, by disinterring some dusty chestnut of a quote that captures the essence of the season in a few words.  This seemed appropriate:

“Life’s most persistent and urgent question is, ‘What are you doing for others?’”

                                                             –Martin Luther King, Jr. 

For young Marc Marquez, five-time world champion at age 23, the clear, ringing answer is, “Kicking their butts all over the playground.  Dominating their sport, living their dreams.  And waiting for my beard to come in, so I can look more badass, like Hector Barbera.”  Perhaps this is not the response Dr. King sought, back in the day.  It is, however, The Truth.

See you next spring.

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Posted in Andrea Iannone, Dani Pedrosa, Ducati, Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Jorge Lorenzo, KTM, Marc Marquez, Maverick Vinales, MotoGP, MotoGP Valencia, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News, Suzuki | Leave a Comment »

MotoGP 2016 Valencia Preview

November 7, 2016

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

The curtain closes on a fine season 

What will people reading this remember about the 2016 MotoGP season?  A Marquez year, his third of many, for sure.  The year Crutchlow won his first two races?  The year Jack Miller, Andrea Iannone and Maverick Vinales each won his first?  The year Suzuki and Ducati and Australia broke their droughts?  The year Yamaha started one of their own?  My fave is the year nine different riders stood on the top step of the podium, some for the first time and some, perhaps, for the last. 

Dorna big cheese Carmelo Ezpeleta’s Great Leavening proceeds apace.  The field has become more level, the notion of a win more plausible for the riders who aren’t Top Four or Five material; Jack Miller, currently residing in 17th place for the season, won in Assen.  Though one goal going in had been to make MotoGP more affordable, a laughable proposition, it did serve its twin purpose of delivering more competitive racing front to back on the grid.  It enticed Aprilia and KTM (wildcarding this weekend with Mika Kallio onboard) back into the fold.  It got Ducati back into big boy pants.

Lap times haven’t changed much.  It’s not as sexy as the custom ECU setup was, but I, for one, like it.  More rider, (slightly) less technology.  And next year, no wingies.  You readers are making me into some kind of old school purist. 

Previous History at Valencia 

Lorenzo’s 2013 finale win was a hollow victory; having needed the win, he was unable to keep Marquez out of the top five, which he also needed to do, resulting in the remarkable rookie’s first premier class title. Lorenzo’s problem that day wasn’t Marquez but Dani Pedrosa, who kept pressure on the Mallorcan sufficient to prevent him from coming back to the field in an effort to hinder Marquez, who ultimately finished third. Rossi, at the end of his first year back with Yamaha, was unable to lend his teammate a hand while finishing fourth; this was back when they were getting along.

The 2014 race was wet-ish, though the title had been decided weeks earlier. Lorenzo slid out of the race with six laps left. Marquez took the win, blowing kisses to his fans during his victory lap, and was joined on the podium by Rossi and Pedrosa. The day’s procession culminated in the coronation of Marquez for the second time in two years, and the MotoGP world appeared to be his oyster. Little did we know then the trials 2015 held in store for him.

No one who reads this stuff is likely to forget the 2015 season finale, at which Jorge Lorenzo won from pole while championship rival and “teammate” Valentino Rossi, having been penalized for his antics with Marquez in Sepang the previous week, was forced to start from the back of the grid and could only (only) make his way back to fourth place at the finish.  There was additional controversy as to why the Repsol Honda team appeared to ride as wingmen for Lorenzo, never seriously challenging him over the last few laps.  El Gato’s fans were delirious, but the rest of the world seemed ticked off.

Of the four riders formally-known-as-Aliens, Pedrosa has the best record here, with three wins and three podia in ten starts. Rossi has two wins and six podia to show for 16 starts since 2000, but the most recent of those was in 2004, when Marc Marquez was 11 years old. Jorge Lorenzo, in seven premier class starts, has three wins and a third-place finish in 2009 to go along with several violent DNFs. Marquez can boast of a win, a place and a show in three MotoGP tries, barely breaking a sweat; I’d like to see him race here when the pressure’s on.  For those of you who insist, Cal Crutchlow DNF’d the 2013 race, got beat at the flag by Dovizioso in 2014 on his way to 5th place, and found himself in 9th position last year, 36 seconds off the pace.  There.

Sidebars

Most of the intrigue this weekend will emanate from the middle of the grid.  The civil war at Pramac Ducati is almost over; Petrucci has Redding by 16 heading into Valencia in the contest for factory GP17 next year.  Ducati pilots Hector Barbera and Andrea Iannone are fighting furiously for 9th place for the season, with Barbera holding a one point advantage coming into the weekend.  Meanwhile, Eugene Laverty, in his MotoGP swan song. will try to hold on to his single point lead over Aprilia’s Alvaro Bautista in the fight for 12th place.

Random Thought 

I have a thought that needs airing out.  It may not be new, but it goes like this:  Marquez, since clinching in Motegi, still wants to win and has attacked the last two races hard, but has crashed out of each.  He had podium written all over him until he went down.  This illustrates the subconscious effect mindset (between fighting for a title and playing out the string) has on one’s focus, judgment and even balance.  Had he been in the midst of a title fight, I have no doubt he would have kept the bikes up.

While I’m at it, I’ve had a second thought for a while.  About how much fun it would be to listen to a digital recording from the inside of Valentino Rossi’s helmet during a race.  45 minutes of yelling, cursing, grunting, praying, and more cursing, all at high speed and pitch and, best of all, in Italian, so all you would understand is the names of the riders toward whom the invective is directed.  Not sure what the F*word is in Italian (cazzo, actually), but I bet you would hear it in the recording once or twice.  Possibly directed at Lorenzo’s mother.

What the heck.  Dani Pedrosa, should he fulfill his final two-year contract with Honda, would become the Spanish Loris Capirossi.  Long, distinguished careers without a single MotoGP championship.  All that meat and no potatoes.  And is it possible he might actually forego his final contract and call it a career, clearing the way for a Crutchlow vs. Miller tussle for the second Repsol seat?  The fact that he will be in Valencia this weekend makes that notion doubtful.

Your Season Ending Weekend Forecast

The weather forecast for greater Valencia this weekend calls for mostly clear skies and temps in the low 70’s.  The 2016 war being over, there is one last battle to be fought on Sunday.  With so few of the riders having any skin left in the game, this one will be for bragging rights only.  With the exception of Marquez, Rossi, Vinales and Pol Espargaro, many of the top ten are vulnerable to a drop in the standings, while some still have an opportunity to profit.  For instance, if Pedrosa is unable to post for the start, Cal Crutchlow is likely to nab sixth place for the season.  Great.

As to the results to come, I like Rossi this weekend.  Guy still has a chip on his shoulder and is still fast.  Marquez will compete for the win just for fun.  Lorenzo says he wants a finish to his Yamaha tenure he can be proud of.  Pedrosa will be in no shape to win but will still show up.  The rest of the fast movers—the Dueling Andreas, Crutchlow, Vinales—are always up for a podium chase.  My picks for the weekend?  Rossi, Vinales and Lorenzo.  Yamaha ends it’s losing streak, Vinales primps for his big boy debut next season, the podium celebration is as awkward as possible, and Lorenzo leaves team Yamaha with his head held high.

Next year starts on Tuesday.

This Just In

I am traveling most of Sunday.  The Valencia race results will post on Monday morning.  Thanks for your patience, real or imagined.  Ciao.

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Posted in 2016 MotoGP championship, Dani Pedrosa, Ducati, Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Honda, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, Maverick Vinales, MotoGP, MotoGP Valencia, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News, Scott Reddiing, Suzuki, The grand prix of Valencia, Valencia, Valentino Rossi, Yamaha | Leave a Comment »

MotoGP 2015 Valencia Results

November 8, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

Jorge Lorenzo seizes win, snatches 2015 title from Rossi

The record books will show that Jorge Lorenzo’s win today, together with Valentino Rossi’s 4th place finish, gave the 2015 championship to Lorenzo by five points. There will be documentation attesting to the fact that Valentino Rossi passed 20 riders in the first 10 laps, ultimately making it up to 4th place on the grid, at which point he was spent.

LorenzoCaptureThere will be no explanation, visual or otherwise, why either of the Repsol Hondas didn’t give Lorenzo a serious go on the last two laps; the term “team orders” has ceased to exist. The three points given Rossi by Race Direction after Sepang were, in the end, decisive.

The bells are not ringing in Tavullia tonight.

Setting the Stage

Jorge Lorenzo laid down “the best lap of my life,” in his words, on Saturday to capture pole in a race where getting away at the front would solve a lot of problems. Joined on the front row by Repsol Honda troublemakers Marc Marquez and the suddenly-hot Dani Pedrosa, Lorenzo earned the best possible track to the title on Saturday.

Everyone know Rossi would be starting from the back row. Everyone had done the math about where Rossi would arrive when. Lorenzo knew, as we all knew, that winning the race meant Rossi’s eventual placement was less of a concern; anything outside of second would put the Italian in 2nd place for the season.

pedrosa-marquezThus, on a Honda-friendly track, in front of a sellout crowd and actual millions watching on TV around the world, Jorge Lorenzo exerted his will upon the field and his top competitors to win in Valencia. In a must-win situation he showed us his mental toughness and again brings into question why he bothered to get involved in the Rossi/Marquez tiff. Had he floated above the controversy, his title would shine a lot brighter than it does. He reminds me of my wife’s strong suggestion that I never resist an opportunity to keep my mouth shut.

On the Track…

…The Usual Suspects took their places, Lorenzo followed closely by Marquez, Pedrosa trailing and, eventually, Rossi occupying fourth, unable to do anything about the action so far in front of him. For Rossi to claim the title, he needed both Marquez and Pedrosa to treat Lorenzo rudely, going through to put the Mallorcan in third place.

Amazingly, Lorenzo led Marquez and Pedrosa at the end of Lap 1 and at the end of Lap 30, without having to withstand a serious challenge of any import along the way. This oddity, which also resulted in an all-Spanish podium, is a little fishy. The casual observer, if the top three wore the same livery, might deduce that #93 and #26 were protecting the back of #99. The world will never know.

The worst part of all of this, as we know, is that the specific sanction imposed upon Rossi by Race Direction after Sepang had a direct bearing on the outcome of the season. What if Race Direction had, in its wisdom, assessed Rossi a two point penalty, slapping him on the wrist but allowing him to qualify? Is it that hard to see him finishing second from a second row start on a day the factory Hondas were not getting froggy?

And with triple world champion Lorenzo in effect criticizing the penalty as too lenient, is there any reason to suppose the team won’t be building a wall down the middle of the garage again in 2016, the way it was in 2009? No warm and fuzzies here.

Elsewhere on the Grid

bradley_smithPol Espargaro lashed his Monster Tech 3 Yamaha to the line three seconds in front of teammate Bradley Smith to capture fifth place for the day, Smith just showing Andrea Dovizioso and his Desmosedici the shade. Aleix Espargaro brought his factory Suzuki across the line in eighth, with Crutchlow and Danilo Petrucci bringing the LCR Honda and the Pramac Ducati, respectively, to the flag filling out the top ten.

Farther down the food chain, Maverick Vinales, Michele Pirro and Yonny Hernandez ended their year in the points. Vinales will continue with Suzuki in 2016, Pirro will continue to test for Ducati, and Hernandez moves to Aspar team but will remain on the junior class Ducati, teaming up with Eugene Laverty who stays with Aspar. Today, in his last MotoGP start, American Nicky Hayden finished 17th and out of the money, but he finished, as has been declared a MotoGP Legend, with three career wins and a championship to show for his body of work in the premier class. I hope he can find a competitive team and win a title in WSBK, one of the genuine nice guys in the industry.

Alvaro Bautista and Stefan Bradl finished 14th and 18th today, and will begin practicing on the new Aprilia MotoGP bike on Tuesday in Jerez. Brit Scott Redding ended his generally fruitless association with Marc VDS Honda and will be suiting up for Pramac Ducati alongside Petrucci. (Scott, wouldn’t it have been easier just to lose 15 pounds?) Marc VDS will, in 2016, be bringing Tito Rabat up from Moto2 to ride alongside Jack Miller. Loris Baz will join top open class rider Hector Barbera at Avintia Ducati.

The top factory and satellite teams are standing pat, meaning some riders will not have seats for next season. This is life in the slow lane of MotoGP.

The Final Big Picture of 2015

Lorenzo edges Rossi for the title, with Marquez third and Pedrosa fourth; the Aliens remain unchallenged. Andrea Iannone outpoints Brit Bradley Smith by seven to claim fifth, with Smith the top satellite rider in sixth. Dovizioso slips to seventh place for the year, ahead of Brit Crutchlow in eighth. And Pol Espargaro pips Danilo Petrucci by a single point in the race for ninth place. The two Suzukis finish 11th and 12th, Espargaro outpointing his rookie teammate by eight.

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

So MotoGP now has four respectable, competitive manufacturers, two of which have Alien class riders. The rule and tire changes for 2016 will shuffle the deck to a degree, but should not change the order of Aliens. Several junior class riders—Alex Rins and Miguel Oliveira among them—are soon going to be working in the premier class, along with some talented young Italian riders.

The Marquez-Rossi flap this season has exposed some weakness in the relationship between teams and sponsors, with some sponsors seizing upon the opportunity to back out of agreements going forward. Repsol is having a terrible year, courtesy of cheap crude oil prices, and was offended by the event, as was Honda, as was Movistar, as was Yamaha. There is no reason to expect that these types of incidents won’t continue to occur in the coming years.

Indianapolis is gone from the calendar, replaced by Austria, and the calendar is lengthened by a week. Testing this week at Jerez marks the beginning of next season, new bums on new seats. New tires. New electronics.

Goodbye to 2015

Each year, we try to find a quote that summarizes the season we’ve just seen. Without even doing the research, I recalled a statement from a movie several years ago that I believe sums up 2015 for Jorge Lorenzo. Heading into the season, there was faint hope that he would be able to compete with Marquez. As Marquez faltered, Rossi rallied, and Lorenzo was in a season-long dogfight.

There were plenty of points in the season where Lorenzo could have given up. In response to one, he went on a four race win streak. He kept it close until the very last week of the season, and had enough left to seize the day when the opportunity presented itself. He kept the faith.

It could have been Jorge Lorenzo that the young proprietor of the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was speaking about when he observed,

“Everything works out in the end. If it hasn’t worked out,
it is not yet the end.”

We look forward to bringing you MotoGP again next season.

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Posted in Dani Pedrosa, Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Jorge Lorenzo, marc marquez, MotoGP, MotoGP Valencia, Valentino Rossi | 1 Comment »

MotoGP Race Weekend Valencia Round 18

November 7, 2015

© Bruce Allen

Over the years, my approach to race day and, for the past four or five years, race weekend has changed. The first few years, when I knew more about humor than racing, I could work up story lines during the week, regardless of what actually occurred in the race. Since then, I’ve had to study hard, and struggle to keep up with my readers.
• I need to go to Mass on Saturday afternoon;
• I need to peruse the other half dozen major MotoGP sites to make sure I’m not missing something;
• I have to watch Q2;
• I can’t miss the Moto2 race or the half hour before the big bikes go off, when Nick and Matt give us deep background on the riders, etc. This is a problem during the Pacific swing when the races go off at, like, 1:00 am.
• I need to regret I’m no longer a rider;
• I get up to speed back as far as 2012, but rely on the announcers beyond that.

It is not a problem developing a Point of View about this stuff. If you’re paying attention, and depending greatly on your country of origin, you will adopt a contender about whom you feel passionately. Others, such as myself, tend not to boost a favorite, instead pulling for a competitive season. Like this one. The comments on the website suggest I’m a closet fan of one of the Aliens involved in this thing. I’m really not. Just no parades and a meaningful Valencia is all I ask.

Watching the mandatory Q2, it’s becoming a soap opera. Lorenzo obliterates the field on the way to pole, while Rossi crashes at the very end and walks gingerly off. As if things just couldn’t get any worse for Vale…

I consider the thought that even if Lorenzo gets away, we could have a final two laps involving Rossi and Marquez, which would be worth watching, Rossi needing second place to secure the title.

Lots of recent history between the two. Both feeling significant constraints and pressures. Together, the temperament of warriors, suffering equally from the sin of pride, they elect to do battle, or walk away, the outcome of the season at stake. Both feeling that they’ve been wounded by the other. Marquez out of contention, Rossi at the sharp end of it. Running glued together on the last lap of the race, Marquez in the lead. Aspettalo…aspettalo…a.s.p.e.t.t.a.l.o. Into the last turn. What an easy image to conjure. The fourth physical confrontation of the year between the two, the first three won, at least on some level, by Rossi.

Such a confrontation, in reality, would be one for the ages. I believe most people at the race would be pulling for the crafty old man. I do believe Marquez would be happy to tangle with Pedrosa, but not so much with either Lorenzo or Rossi. He doesn’t want to be the one blamed for keeping The Doctor from his tenth world championship, instantly developing a huge devoted group of haters. In a season going nowhere, it is probably, for Marquez, a rare opportunity to stand aside, wave your hat, bow, and admit you STILL want to ride like Vale.

Memo to Marquez: Nothing stupid. Nothing dangerously aggressive. Nothing to impede. If Lorenzo wins, all Rossi’s fans will ever remember is you keeping Him from His 10th title. If Rossi takes the championship, no one will remember how easy it was for him to go through on you, whose tires were worn to the rims. In this scenario, Lorenzo fans are disappointed, Rossi fans are elated, and your fans are neutral, as some prefer on or the other of The Bruise Brothers. No one is seeking blood. It’s all good.

It’s Saturday morning in Indiana. Even I have a lot to think about.

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MotoGP 2015 Valencia Preview

November 4, 2015

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

45 Minutes to a Championship

The two weeks leading up to the deciding moment of the 2015 MotoGP title have been unsatisfactory. Unsatisfactory in the extreme. For only the third time in 24 years, the premier class title will be decided in Valencia. But title contenders and factory Yamaha teammates Jorge Lorenzo and Valentino Rossi have gotten wrapped around the axle in a dispute with Repsol Honda #1 Marc Marquez that has stolen the spotlight from the race and shifted it to, of all places, an obscure courtroom in Switzerland.

Tossi-vs-marquez-di-sepanghis is so 21st century. A high-stakes sporting event engenders controversy on the track, the organizing body fails to fully resolve it to the satisfaction of the principals, and the lawsuits start flying. Deflategate on two wheels. Rossi fans are outraged. Marquez fans are outraged. Lorenzo and his fans, firmly in command of the low moral ground, insist Rossi should have been black-flagged on Lap 7 in Sepang, effectively handing the 2015 championship to #99.

Actually, it’s probably a good thing this is happening in the 21st century rather than the 19th, when Italy might have declared war on Spain.

Not having a dog in this fight, as well as being on deadline, I just wish for the whole thing to be settled. Now. Let Rossi’s penalty points be removed. Make him start from the back of the grid. Whatever. Just please don’t kick the can down the road and leave it to be fully adjudicated until next year. We, the fans of MotoGP, need closure. Preferably before Friday. As I’ve said before in this space, right now would be fine.

Recent History at Valencia

In 2012, Jorge Lorenzo had clinched his second premier class title at Phillip Island two weeks earlier and had nothing at stake in this one. The weather was, like a decent rosé, semi-dry. It had rained before the race, and was spitting at the start, but would end up dry, the worst possible conditions for the riders. A select few, including Lorenzo and Yamaha test rider Katsayugi “Catman” Nakasuga, took to the grid on slicks. Four others, having made their sighting lap on wets, would change over to slicks and start from pit lane. The remainders enjoyed one of the flag-to-flag affairs that almost always scrambles the results.

By the end of the day, Lorenzo had experienced a highside courtesy of pokey James Ellison, Dani Pedrosa had runDani-Pedrosa-2013-HD-Wallpaper-Photos away from the field, and The Catman, in the upset of the decade, occupied the second step of the podium between Pedrosa and Casey Stoner, who had run the last race of his first career. (Rumors floating around have him reuniting with Ducati for 2017, which I’ll believe when I see it.)

The 2013 finale was won by Lorenzo in a hollow victory, having failed to keep Marquez out of the top five, resulting in the remarkable rookie’s first premier class title. Lorenzo’s problem that day wasn’t Marquez but Dani Pedrosa, who kept pressure on the Mallorcan all day sufficient to prevent him from coming back to the field in an effort to hinder Marquez. Rossi, at the end of his first year back with Yamaha, was unable to lend his teammate a hand while finishing fourth. The Order of Aliens at season’s end was Marquez, Lorenzo, Pedrosa and Rossi, an accurate reflection of their body of work over 18 rounds. Had Marquez not tagged Pedrosa’s traction control cable in Aragon, things might have worked out differently.

Last year’s race was, again, wettish, though the title had been decided weeks earlier. Lorenzo crashed in the rain with six laps left as Marquez was joined on the podium by Rossi and Pedrosa. The day’s procession culminated in the coronation of Marquez for the second time in two years, and the MotoGP world appeared to be his oyster. Little did we know then the trials 2015 held in store for him.

Of the four Aliens, Pedrosa can claim the best record here, with three wins and three podia in nine starts. Rossi has two wins and six podia to show for 15 starts since 2000, but the most recent of these came in 2004 when Marc Marquez was 11 years old. Jorge Lorenzo, in six premier class starts, has two wins and a third place finish in 2009 to go along with several violent DNFs. Marquez can boast of a win and a third in two MotoGP tries, barely breaking a sweat either time. Based upon history, one would expect the two Repsol Honda pilots to end the day on the podium, joined by a factory Yamaha rider to be named later.

A Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma

For the factory Yamaha team, preparing for the Gran Premio Motul de la Comunitat Valenciana must feel like preparing for a wrestling cage match against, like, six different guys. One thing is certain: should Lorenzo outpoint Rossi by seven or more points, the title is his. Six points or less, the Italian walks away with his record-tying tenth world championship.

Should Rossi’s penalty points stick, his mission becomes clear. Starting from the back of the grid will force him to throw caution to the wind, put his head down, lay on the horn, and make every possible effort to emerge close to the front, assess where things stand vis à vis Lorenzo, and go from there. If the penalty points are thrown out or “deferred” in some fashion (gag me), his predicament will then resemble that of Lorenzo, as expressed so eloquently back in the early 70’s:

“I can’t make decisions, I don’t know which way I’m gonna turn.”
–Ray Davies, The Kinks
Acute Schizophrenia Blues

This is not a “win or bin” situation for either rider. Assuming Pedrosa and Marquez qualify well and become part of the front group, Lorenzo, and perhaps Rossi, must then engage in an exercise economists refer to as “game theory.” Neither can afford to crash, yet Lorenzo must figure out a way to keep Rossi behind him and a few other bikes between himself and Rossi. What Rossi does will affect Lorenzo’s strategy, and vice versa. One mustn’t go slow, but going too fast is risky, too. And it’s all complicated by the fact that the Ricardo Tormo circuit suits the Repsol Honda riders far better than it does the Yamaha duo. All of which ignores the agendas of a number of non-Aliens on the track as well.

Two points here: Dani Pedrosa is on a very hot streak and is likely to have a material effect on the outcome. And this weekend, perhaps more than any in recent history, the pit boards are likely to tell the story.

Most of the articles I’ve read about this weekend’s race steeply discount Rossi’s chances if he is, indeed, forced to start from the back row. That Marquez was able to win a Moto2 tilt from the exact same spot several years ago is, at this moment, almost poetic. The putative Greatest of All Time may have to approach, at age 36, a feat his likely successor accomplished while still in his teens. And while it’s arguably harder to slice through the entire MotoGP grid than a Moto2 grid, it is not beyond reason to suggest that Rossi, if anyone, can pull it off.

Rossi and Lorenzo BreakupThe weather forecast for the weekend is, at this writing, idyllic. Every ticket has been sold. The riders and their teams have aired their dirty linen. The CAS is sifting through facts and allegations. The camaraderie between Rossi and Lorenzo that developed between 2013 and now is history. Lin Jarvis and Livio Suppo are as nervous as Mike Tyson in a spelling bee. The table is set, and the guests are on their way. Warm up your DVR, because this is one you may want to watch again.

We’ll have race results and analysis right here on Sunday morning

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GRAND PRIX MOTORCYCLE RACING FOR DUMMIES

November 12, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Valencia Test Times Wednesday 11/12/2014

 

Day 3 Valencia Test Times

 

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GRAND PRIX MOTORCYCLE RACING FOR DUMMIES

November 11, 2014

 

 

Valencia Test Times Monday 11/10/2014

Day 1 Valencia Test Times

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GRAND PRIX MOTORCYCLE RACING FOR DUMMIES

November 10, 2014

Attention Dani Pedrosa: Here’s what the future looks like

 

Two years from today.  Video courtesy of MotoGP.com.

 

 

 

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