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MotoGP 2023 Season Preview

March 20, 2023

Ready for Takeoff

Grand prix motorcycle racing—MotoGP to aficionados—is a Eurocentric parlor game for the rich and not-so-famous. It involves undersized riders holding on for dear life to 1000cc bikes with astonishing power-to-weight ratios on road courses at venues on four continents, several of which are in countries one is not anxious to visit. It is almost impossible to find on American television. Riders receive trophies for finishing third. It is the little brother of F1. It is NASCAR’s mentally challenged foreign cousin.

However, for the few of you still reading, at its best, MotoGP is the best racing on the planet, a series of hair-raising encounters between riders and machines traveling at well over 100 mph in unbanked turns, separated by inches, with the difference between winning and not winning often measured in a few thousandths of a second. (By comparison, the autonomic blink of an eye takes around 100 milliseconds.)

These guys are fast. Ridiculously fast. Incomprehensibly fast. The engines on the big bikes retail for around a million dollars per, rotate at, like, 17,000 rpm, and are built to tolerances that defy description, at least with the few words in my vocabulary. The noise they make is equally difficult to describe, resembling, in my mind, the sound a nuclear-powered pencil sharpener might make.

Round One of 2023 lifts off this weekend in Portimao, Portugal. Let the games begin.

A Look Back at 2022

2022 was the year Italy completed a hostile takeover of the premier class. Italian manufacturer Ducati Corse won its first world championship since 2007. An Italian rider, Francesco (Pecco) Bagnaia, won it all for the first time since the legendary Valentino Rossi in 2009. Ducati won the constructor’s title for the third consecutive year, in part because they had more bikes on the grid—eight out of 24—than any other builder, placing five of them in the top nine. Bagnaia, left for dead in mid-season, trailing defending champion Fabio Quartararo by 91 points, mounted the largest comeback in history for the title, sealed at the season finale in Valencia. It was the most competitive, most compelling season in recent memory.

Moto2 is, in layman’s terms, the junior varsity in MotoGP. All the bikes are powered by 765cc Triumph triples, with teams providing the rest of the components from various manufacturers. Spaniard Augusto Fernandez took the 2022 championship in Austrian monolith KTM colors, ahead of Japanese rider Ai Ogura (Idemitsu Honda Asia team) and Spaniard Aron Canet (Flexbox HP40 team). Fernandez was exceptionally strong in mid-season, at one point winning four races out of six. Ogura, his main challenger during the final two months, choked at season’s end, scoring five (5) points over the final three rounds. Fernandez was the only Moto2 rider rewarded with a promotion to MotoGP for 2023. He will ride for the #2 KTM (GasGas) team, ensuring a second division finish.

I forgot to mention Pedro Acosta, the young Spanish fast mover who will, according to my forthcoming prediction, take the Moto2 title in 2023 and graduate to MotoGP in 2024 where he will soon become A Force to be Reckoned With.

Torturing the analogy, Moto3 is, like, the MotoGP freshman team, although the 250cc bikes are fast and loud. Lap times are a few seconds slower than Moto2, which are, in turn, a few seconds slower than the premier class MotoGP bikes. Moto3 is annually populated by a cadre of upwardly mobile teenagers and a roughly equal number of grizzled veterans who have embraced The Peter Principle and who will never see the saddle of a MotoGP machine. The 2022 title was won by Spanish teenager and rising KTM star Izan Guevara, who will turn 19 this coming June. The Next Great Spanish Rider soundly beat teenaged teammate and countryman Sergio Garcia and Italian Dennis Foggia (Honda) for the title. All three were promoted to Moto2 at season’s end.

2022 Moto3 rookies who had notable seasons include Daniel Holgado, who turns 18 in April, and my personal favorite, David Muñoz, who will turn 17 this year and may be the Next Next Great Spanish Rider.

Premier Class Teams and Riders

For 2023, moto-social Darwinism and economic constraints reduced the number of teams from 12 to 11 and, accordingly, the number of riders from 24 to 22. The riders and teams play musical chairs every year in MotoGP. A few get promoted from the underclasses, others change teams, seeking greener pastures, and the dregs get consigned to the rubbish heap. This year, mixing metaphors, the deck was re-shuffled more than usual due to the demise of the factory Suzuki team. And while only one rider, Augusto Fernandez, had his ticket punched from Moto2 into MotoGP, a larger number than usual headed for the other side of the hill, as follows:

  • Yamaha shut down their hopeless satellite team and Aprilia added a hopeful one. Yamahan Darryn Binder was shown the door, while Andrea Dovizioso retired. Aprilia recruited former KTM pilots Raul Fernandez and Miguel Oliveira, to rep their new #2 team. The two riders’ prospects appear to have improved with the switch. Aprilia, having recovered from the loss of Gigi Dall’Igna to Ducati ten years ago, is an ascendant program of late.
  • Rookie Augusto Fernandez will team up with veteran Pol Espargaro, late of the factory Repsol Honda team, on the #2 (KTM) Tech 3 GasGas team, under the careful supervision of jovial French guy (pronounced ghee) Herve Poncharal. Aussie Remy Gardner was advised he was “insufficiently professional” (read: insufficiently Spanish or Italian) and made his way, with a pocketful of sour grapes, to the tacitly less professional World Superbike championship series.
  • Joan Mir, 2020 World Champion with a couple of asterisks, was left without a seat when Suzuki folded their tent and chose to join the Repsol Honda team alongside Marc Marquez. Exhibiting questionable decision-making skills, this compares to an infant leaving a comfortable bassinet, complete with mother’s milk, to ride alongside Mad Max in the Thunderdome. Former teammate Alex Rins, also revealing impaired judgment, moved on from the comfort of the smooth-riding Suzuki to LCR Honda, whose version of the RC213V is as difficult to ride as the Repsol bikes but slower. His teammate there will be Mr. Cellophane, Takaa Nakagami. It promises to be a long year for Mir and Rins. It is always a long year for Nakagami.
  • Australian veteran Jack Miller, realizing his own pedigree was insufficiently Italian, chose to leave the factory Ducati team on his terms rather than theirs, and landed squarely on the factory KTM team, joining skeletal South African mercenary Brad Binder on the only entirely Anglo team on the grid. Miller’s initial bubbly optimism about the move lasted until the first test in Sepang. Such is life.
  • In a classic MotoGP three-way, once Miller vacated the factory Ducati crew, Enea Bastiannini got promoted from Gresini Ducati to replace him alongside world champion Pecco Bagnaia, and Alex Marquez escaped from LCR to Gresini, where it is thought, at least here, he will scout the Ducati ecosystem as an advance man for his brother Marc, who has only so many years left to await Honda’s return to respectability. Alex will be welcomed by returning Gresini up-and-comer Fabio de Giannantonio, who is singlehandedly causing a shortage of lower-case Ns amongst the journalists covering the sport. (We decided last season to refer to him as FDG to conserve consonants.)
  • The remaining four teams made no changes in their rider lineup this season. Aprilia #1 with a resurgent Maverick Vinales and Aleix Espargaro. The hobbled Yamaha team of Fabulous Quartararo and an enigmatic Frankie Morbidelli. Rossi’s Mooney VR46 Ducati team with Luca Marini and Marco Bezzecchi, and Pramac Ducati with whiz kid Jorge Martin and aging Frenchman Johann Zarco. If I had to make a prediction for 2024, I would expect Morbidelli and Zarco to exit the premier class stage after this year, followed soon thereafter by Aleix.

Sprint Races? C’mon, Man

In the face of declining fan interest in the sport, The Powers That Be decided to put on flattering imitations of the sprint races found in World Superbike and, on occasion, F1. Essentially, these will be half-length tilts run on Saturdays in the place of the execrable FP4 sessions. In the past, cumulative fast times in the first three practice sessions determined which 10 riders would pass automatically into the QP2 pole shootout, with the remnant having to slug it out in QP1 for the top two slots which would then pass GO into QP2. As of 2023, these determinations will occur after FP2, throwing a real sense of urgency into Fridays. That’s the good news. The results from QP1 and 2 will determine starting positions for both the sprints and the full distance races on Sundays.

This year, the last event on Saturdays will be premier class sprint races. The top eight finishers will score points–9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1—while the other 14 will put hours on their engines and chew up a set of tires. No changes have been made in engine allocations, despite the fact that the number of race laps the engines will have to complete will increase by half. Look for penalties to be assessed late in the season as teams run out of operational engines.

While the fans, at least those still sober at 3 pm, will get to see riders competing in anger on Saturdays, the pilots and crews will pay the price, especially in the autoclaves of Thailand, Malaysia, India and Indonesia. (I’m torn between using “autoclave” and “blast furnace” to depict the hellish conditions in these places.) The older riders—notably the Espargaro brothers and Zarco—will suffer more, despite the chilling effect of 200 mph headwinds. And nobody gives a hoot about the brolly girls and what they will have to endure, in full pancake makeup and leather trousers.

Personally, I get the feeling that the sprint races, as currently configured, will be a full-blown cluster, most notably in October, with three races in three weeks, including Indonesia and Thailand. I also get the feeling, for the record, that the Indian Grand Prix will not make it onto the final calendar due to construction issues, that the 21- round season will eventually be reduced to 20. Just sayin’.

The Big Questions: Will Borat Attend the Kazakhstan Grand Prix? And Where Can We Find His Sister?

Tranches

One has to be a moron to try to predict the eventual 2023 MotoGP standings when there’s still snow on the ground. Undeterred, and using my proprietary and well-worn SWAG (Sophisticated Wild Ass Guess) predictive software, here goes:

  1. Pecco Bagnaia. A formidable combination—the second coming of Jorge Lorenzo on the best bike on Earth, the 2023 title is his to lose.
  2. Enea Bastiannini. Young, smooth, easy on tires and fearless. The teammates appear ready to dominate the season the way Michael Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello did F1 in 2002.
  3. Marc Marquez. #93 is, for the moment, 100% healthy. Despite being stuck with the crappy Honda RC213V, he will finish the year on the podium. At age 30, his days of dominance are numbered. But, as Nick Harris used to say about Valentino Rossi, “Ignore him at your peril.”
  4. Maverick Vinales. Going out on a limb here, Pop Gun showed a few flashes of his old form last year, and the Aprilia has become a credible contender. He will finish ahead of aging, arm-pumping teammate Aleix Espargaro.
  5. Fabio Quartararo. As gifted as Fabulous is, the Yamaha doesn’t appear yet to provide him with enough grunt to compete for a championship. This is his final contract with the Iwata factory. As for the rest of the field, I’ll just let the software do the predicting:
  6. Jorge Martin
  7. Aleix Espargaro
  8. Marco Bezzecchi
  9. Brad Binder
  10. Luca Marini
  11. Fabio di Giannantonio
  12. Joan Mir
  13. Jack Miller
  14. Miguel Oliveira
  15. Johann Zarco
  16. Alex Rins
  17. Pol Espargaro
  18. Raul Fernandez
  19. Alex Marquez
  20. Franco Morbidelli
  21. Takaa Nakagami
  22. Augusto Fernandez

And the 2023 Winner Is…

Moto3:    Jaume Masia

Moto2:    Pedro Acosta

MotoGP:  Pecco Bagnaia

For Those of You Who Think I Don’t Know What I’m Talking About

No argument here. You will find more informative articles on any number of other sites. We’re willing to settle for cheap laughs, mostly at the expense of the authority figures in a sport that seems to take itself way too seriously. Most of you reading this drivel are riders who view the statement, “I want to grow up and be a motorcycle rider” as a choice. The punchline is you can’t do both.

Having made your decisions, I’m here to give you the opportunity to express yourself. Reader engagement is the currency of life on the web. We hope you will take the time to share your opinions without dropping a lot of F-bombs, as we jealously protect our PG-13 rating.

I will post results from each of the 21 rounds this year.

Keep the shiny side up.

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Posted in Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Moto, Moto2, Moto3, MotoGP Portimao, MotoGP Preview, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News | 36 Comments »

MotoGP 2009 Losail Preview

November 24, 2020

© Bruce Allen     Originally posted March, 2009  Re-posted November 2020.

What follows is the first article I wrote for Motorcycle.com in 2009, having given them a few articles in 2008. This was back when my knowledge of MotoGP was less than zero. Strictly faking it, a little superficial research, kind of like graduate school.

Welcome to MotoGP 2009

If you fantasize about hitting 200 miles per hour on two wheels, you’re in luck, because it’s time for the 2009 edition of MotoGP.  Motorcycle.com is covering the entire season, “spanning the globe” from the charge into the first turn under the lights in Qatar this Sunday night to the checkered flag at Valencia in November.

We have again retained last year’s MotoGP correspondent, Bruce Allen, to give you an up-close-and-personal look at the most dangerous sport on earth.

Bruce will provide a full season of amped-up MotoGP coverage (without even leaving his living room, other than the occasional foray to White Castle and the package store).  He has bootlegged a high-rez video feed from the MotoGP site, and has the best seat in the house.

No stranger to controversy, he is rarely confused by the facts.  He invites reader comments (as he is unable to escape them anyway, given that most of his observations are frivolous and half-baked).

Bruce has promised us a Friday pre-race analysis on each race weekend, as well as a recap of the action on Mondays.  At last year’s Indianapolis Gran Prix, he promised a portfolio of action photographs, and all we got was about fifty pictures of the Kawasaki girls.  We’re not really sure what to expect.

Therefore, with more than a little concern about our reputation, we   proudly    are pleased to    are sweating bullets    will try for a few weeks  present MotoGP 2009.

A Look Back at the 2008 Season 

The 2008 MotoGP season was highly competitive, in the way the U.S. invasion of Grenada in 1983 was highly competitive.  Valentino Rossi, riding the #46 Fiat Yamaha, got off to a less-than-dominating start to the season, found his groove a third of the way through, and ruled the championship the rest of the way.  The final standings for the top ten riders:

Place      Rider               Country           Team                Points               Podiums

1 Valentino ROSSI ITA Fiat Yamaha Team 373              16
2 Casey STONER AUS Ducati Marlboro 280                 11
3 Dani PEDROSA SPA Repsol Honda 249                 11
4 Jorge LORENZO SPA Fiat Yamaha 190                     6
5 A. DOVIZIOSO ITA JIR Team Scot 174                   1
6 Nicky HAYDEN USA Repsol Honda Team 155                   2
7 Colin EDWARDS USA Tech 3 Yamaha 144                   2
8 C. VERMEULEN AUS Rizla Suzuki MotoGP 128                   2
9 Shinya NAKANO JPN San Carlo Honda Gresini 126                   0
10 L. CAPIROSSI  ITA Rizla Suzuki MotoGP 118                   1

Casey Stoner, the defending 2007 world’s champion, chased Rossi most of the season, but had enough trouble controlling the big red Ducati that he was unable to catch The Doctor.  Dani Pedrosa and Jorge Lorenzo, the exciting young Spaniards, had a few too many crashes, fractures and abrasions to make a serious run at the title, but gave the fans something to cheer about in every race they were medically cleared to run.  As in high sides in which they could be photographed flying through the air, like trapeze artists.

Andrea Dovizioso, Colin Edwards and Nicky Hayden each had a number of Top 5 finishes in 2008, putting them in the second tier by themselves.  Nobody else was in serious contention.  Which points out one of the factors that keep MotoGP from being even more popular than it is–the concentration of power at the top, and the limited number of teams and riders capable of being seriously competitive.  Kind of like F-1 on two wheels.  BTW, isn’t Andrea a girl’s name?

The good news is that the few teams that are competitive are UNBELIEVABLE, and the speed, the noise and the overall atmosphere at these races is unlike anything else on earth.

MotoGP makes NASCAR look like they’re running step vans.

During the Offseason… 

The major change that took place over the winter involved Michelin being given the boot by MotoGP in favor of Bridgestone tires, upon which all the teams will be riding this year.  This is likely to improve the prospects of the Michelin riders from last year, including Lorenzo, Pedrosa, Hayden, Dovizioso, Edwards and James Toseland, once they get the new rubber figured out.  Circuit-wide, there were a number of arcane rule changes concerning practice days and times, electronic suspension defibrillators, and other stuff I don’t pay much attention to.  (If you do, feel free to visit motogp.com and bone up.)

A number of riders changed teams, and Kawasaki dumped their sponsorship program altogether, another loathsome effect of the GEC (global economic crisis, about which we are SO tired of speaking and writing).  The biggest news in this area, at least for American fans, was the defection of Kentucky native Nicky Hayden from Repsol Honda to the Marlboro Ducati team, joining Casey Stoner.  Marco Melandri got summarily booted from the Ducati team to the factory Kawasaki team, which then folded, leaving him scrambling for a ride with Hayate Racing.  He has, like, one bike for the season, which suggests he will be riding cautiously, if at all.

In the ensuing game of musical chairs, Dovizioso left JIR Team Scot Honda in favor of the Repsol factory Honda team.  Tony Elias, who had two podiums last season, left the Alice Team Ducati for Team Gresini Honda.  And Ben Spies couldn’t catch a ride at all, which is a shame.

Prospects for the 2009 Season 

Here are your major contending teams and riders heading into the 2009 season.

Fiat Yamaha              Valentino Rossi                        Jorge Lorenzo

Ducati Marlboro      Casey Stoner                            Nicky Hayden

Repsol Honda           Dani Pedrosa                            Andrea Dovizioso

Rizla Suzuki               Chris Vermeulen                       Loris Capirossi

Monster Yamaha Tech 3     Colin Edwards                James Toseland

Stoner and Pedrosa are starting the season less than 100% healthy, with Stoner still recovering from offseason surgery on his wrist and Pedrosa having had surgery after a high side–go figure–while testing at Qatar on March 2.  The Suzuki riders finished the pre-season testing session at Jerez in 3rd and 5th places, suggesting they may be more competitive at the start of this season.  Dovizioso figures to benefit from the switch to the factory Honda team, and Nicky Hayden, at least in my opinion, will be running with the big dogs before the season is over on his shiny new Ducati.

One of the amusing aspects to these big high-powered two-rider teams is the fact that the “teammates” don’t always get along so well.  Apparently Rossi and Lorenzo don’t see eye to eye on everything.  Such also seems to be the case with Edwards and Toseland.  How, you’re wondering, do we know this?  BECAUSE THE CREWS HAVE TO BUILD WALLS IN THE GARAGES TO KEEP THEM FROM ATTACKING ONE ANOTHER.  Despite the fact that these riders have testicles the size of hubcaps, they’ve got “little man” complexes and the aggressiveness of rat terriers.  Walls—jeesh.

Rossi is the odds-on favorite to repeat this season, edging out Stoner on the surprising number of online betting sites devoted to MotoGP.  It’s difficult to bet against him, as he is smooth as silk and rarely makes even the smallest mistake.  Stoner is going to have to have a perfect season to beat him out.  Similar to last season, it figures to be Ducati owning the straightaways, and Yamaha ruling the turns.

Last year at Qatar, the top five finishers were Stoner, Lorenzo and Pedrosa on the podium, followed by Dovizioso and Rossi.  Look for Rossi, Stoner and Lorenzo up there this year, with Vermeulen, Dovizioso and Edwards trailing.  Pedrosa is apparently going to start, but whether he can finish remains to be seen.

⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗⊗

I think the new stuff is better. Back when Sean and Kevin were over-paying me I really worked at it, trying to keep up with my readers. Today, I can pretty much keep up. But in 2009 I was scrambling to sound coherent. Cheers.

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Posted in Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Losail, Moto, MotoGP, MotoGP Losail, Motorcycle Racing | 4 Comments »

MotoGP Mugello 2019 Preview

May 27, 2019

© Bruce Allen

Rossi’s Last Stand 

With Repsol Honda stud Marc Marquez off and running again in 2019, and since they’re racing at Mugello this week, it seems like a good time to pay some attention to Valentino Rossi. Between 2002 and 2008 he won his first seven (7) premier class races at this, his home crib. It’s where he became an immortal in Italian sports lore. He owns this place. 

valentino-rossi-argentina-2019-motogp-5

Rossi celebrating a podium in Argentina earlier this year.

It is not an overstatement to say he has a sense of the moment. Could this be his last credible chance to win the Italian Grand Prix in MotoGP? Despite not having won an actual MotoGP race since Assen in 2017 (and that one was controversial), Rossi has been competitive in 2019—two seconds, and top six in the other three. His main issue continues to be qualifying, where he has missed out on Q2 twice. If he makes it to Q2 he remains a threat to podium every time out, rear grip or no.

But here’s the other thing about Mugello and Rossi. Since 2009, he’s been a bitter disappointment to his homeys and their yellow 46s. Three third-place finishes and three DNFs, one the DNS in 2010. Despite everyone’s hometown hero racing just down the road, the bells announcing a win for Rossi at Mugello haven’t rung on Sunday afternoon in Tavullia in over a decade. Meanwhile, since 2013 that stronzo Marquez has been in full “win or bin” mode here, with a win and a second to go along with two DNFs and last year’s futile 16th place finish.

[Digging the fact that the winningest rider of late in Italy has been El Gato, Jorge Lorenzo, including last year’s breakthrough on the Ducati. Six wins here since 2011, five of which came when Yamaha was the perfect bike for him. Alberto Puig, formerly Pedrosa’s Svengali, now in charge of defending Lorenzo, tells us prosperity with Repsol Honda is just around the corner. If it is, he should win here on Sunday. El futuro es ahora, Alberto.] 

It is a foregone conclusion that Suzuki whiz kid Alex Rins, not Maverick Vinales, is preparing to take Rossi’s place in the Alien firmament. One suspects that Rossi may be thinking about putting his stamp on Mugello forever, with bookend wins in his first and last seasons. If that’s the case, and he makes it into Q2 either automatically or by coming through Q1, Sunday could be a big day in Italy. 2020, should he choose to continue for another season, could then be a farewell tour amidst clouds of yellow smoke, The Doctor blowing kisses to the fans, finishing eighth for the year. But people would talk about Mugello 2019 for a long time. As they said so often in the cult classic Office Space, that would be great.

Recent History at Mugello

2016 featured the infamous blown engines for Lorenzo and Rossi, the second of which I judged to be the most important moment of the 2016 season.  After chasing teammate Lorenzo madly with full fuel tanks, Rossi pulled off, white smoke pouring out of his M1 like the Sistine Chapel upon election of a new Pope.  Marc Marquez picked up the baton and chased Lorenzo to the finish, but at the end it was Lorenzo by 1/100th over Marquez, with Andrea Iannone on the Ducati GP16 third.  Arguably one of Lorenzo’s best rides ever, one he is unlikely to repeat this year on the Honda. Other than his win at the Red Bull Ring, this may have been Iannone’s favorite career race. On the podium at Mugello, with no Rossi looking down on him.

In the 2017 main event, homeboys on Ducatis took the top and third steps on the podium. National idol Rossi, trying to fight through injury on his Yamaha, kept it interesting, but was beaten to the podium by teammate Maverick Vinales and the Ducati GP17s ridden by Dovi and Petrucci, looking hungry and lean himself. For the fans, other than the wrong Yamaha being on the podium, it was cause for celebration. You know, like every other day of the year.

Nature abhors a vacuum, as last year proved. On a day when Marc Marquez uncharacteristically slid out of the mix, Jorge Lorenzo, Andrea Dovizioso and Valentino Rossi stepped up to fill it. With the Italian icon and two Ducatis on the podium, it was, indeed a great day to be Italian. The 2018 standings tightened up a little bit. Enough, at least, to hold our attention for a few more rounds. By the time the circus rolled around to Germany it was pretty much over.

The Point, After All, is Points

The modern era of MotoGP racing has, with the exception of a number of outstanding seasons from Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner, been about Valentino Rossi and Marc Marquez. Rossi holds the MotoGP record for points in a season of 373, set in 2008, the high-water mark of his career. He would take his last premier class title in 2009; many of his supporters say he was robbed by the evil Iberian axis of Marquez and Lorenzo in 2015. Marquez, amongst the long list of records belonging to him, reached “only” 362 in 2014. Had he not crashed out at Motegi he would surely have broken that record, too.

This year, with 95 points to date, Marquez is trending at around 360, which would put him within reach of Rossi’s record, since there are 19 rounds these days. One shudders to think what might have happened had Marquez not dropped the RC213V in Texas. Suppose Marquez had gone on to his usual easy win at COTA and sat currently with 120 points. He would be trending for an unthinkable 456 points. Shows the dangers inherent in straight-line projections. But any suggestion that he is not dominating 2019 is ridiculous.

Before Getting Silly, Let’s Get Stupid 

Interesting that the “stupid season,” the one preceding the “silly season,” has begun. Jack Miller wants to move up to a factory ride, be the next Casey Stoner. Thus, hard luck Danilo Petrucci appears to be getting forced out. Alex Marquez (?) is in discussions with Pramac about a 2020 contract, lending weight to the Miller-to-factory rumors. Good luck with that, Alex. And brother Marc, perish the thought, has allegedly expressed interest in riding the Desmosedici at some unforeseen time. Several riders are openly considering taking their marbles to WSBK, which has to be loving this*. Gigi D’Alligna must have some serious motowood going on; everyone wants one of his bikes. Alberto Puig, recall, tells us all is well with Lorenzo. Unless it rains. Unless it’s hot. Unless it’s cold. Unless he breaks another bone or two…Would Honda or The Spartan bail on his 2021 contract if things don’t get turned around? And don’t you hate paragraphs that end with a question mark?

*Tranche 3 MotoGP defector Alvaro Bautista, riding for Ducati in WSBK, has won 11 of the first 13 races this season.

Your Weekend Forecast

The weather forecast suggests scattered showers on Friday and Saturday, clearing and warm—mid-70s—on Sunday. According to the Encyclopedia of Rider Complaints, under Sunny & Perfect on Race Day, the top whine from riders, with Cal Crutchlow sporting the individual trophy, is, “Not enough dry practice time.” Let’s just say that weather should not be a factor for the race. Whether it interferes with qualifying remains to be seen. Now, more than ever, it seems races are won and lost on Saturday, those riders excluded from Q2 generally unable to crack the top six.

Assuming Rossi qualifies in the top six, I look for him to share the podium with Marquez and Dovizioso, the Usual Suspects. Should The Doctor falter in qualifying, throw Alex Rins on the podium. For some reason, the Suzuki does well at tracks seemingly better-suited for the fast-moving Hondas and Ducatis. It seems unlikely that Jorge Lorenzo will be a factor in the race; ditto for Maverick Vinales, lost in the sauce. Jack Miller would love to impress the suits from Ducati Corse on Sunday and may contend early. His habit of punishing the tires almost always precludes his actually winning many races (one to be exact). As usual, the sentimental favorite, on multiple counts, is my boy Danilo Petrucci, who may decide to let it all hang out on Sunday. To get his maiden premier class win at Mugello on the Ducati could possibly be Danilo’s Ultimate Two-Wheeled Fantasy. For the locals, if Vale can’t pull it off, they will root for Danilo. If he can’t pull it off, root for Dovi. And if he can’t pull it off, pray for that piccolo scroto Marquez to slide out of the lead late in race, when it really hurts, to suffer at Mugello as he did in 2013 and 2015.

Personally, I don’t have a favorite rider, although watching Marquez make his impossible saves gives me goosebumps. For the sake of an easier race summary to write, it would be the bomb if Rossi could pull a rabbit out of his hat. Endless story lines therein. Otherwise, we’re at risk of watching #93 enter his patented low-earth orbit and run circles around everyone else. We’ll have results and analysis here sometime Sunday—may be late due to real life getting in the way. Ciao.

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Posted in Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Honda, Marc Marquez, Moto, MotoGP, MotoGP 2019, MotoGP Mugellio, Racing News, Valentino Rossi | 33 Comments »

Here’s What’s Wrong with English Majors

March 4, 2019

© Bruce Allen

This link will take you to the article written by some English major at Dorna about the upcoming MotoGP season. He lost me at the end of the first paragraph: “Every epos begins with a single verse and a new odyssey is poised to get underway.” Too much Latin, too much overstatement (epos, odyssey?), too many unanswered questions? If you like this kind of writing, you’re not going to like most of the stuff you’ll find here. If, however, this kind of writing makes you gag, welcome aboard.

2019 Losail Preview on MotoGP.com

Capture

Header for the MotoGP preview at MotoGP.com.  Mission Winnow, that’s it!

For those of you who may have missed it previously, I am having trouble remembering the actual name of the factory Ducati sponsor. Thus, as is my wont, I try to obscure ignorance with humor. Otherwise, an editor would crucify me for using Missing Window or Wishin’ Minnow or Wishin’ Minion, etc. You’ll get used to it.

 

 

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Posted in Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Losail, Moto, MotoGP, MotoGP Losail, MotoGP Qatar, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News | 5 Comments »

MotoGP Losail Preview

March 3, 2019

© Bruce Allen

It’s Marquez’ Title to Lose in 2019 

Welcome to MotoGP 2019, brought to you by Motorcycle.com and, well, me. I will be publishing everything I do here, and MO will, in turn, publish race results (only the results; no previews) on Sundays. My editor at MO worked hard to make this happen, and I’m happy to start my 11th season working for the friendly Canucks in Toronto and with the bozos in California.

MotoGP 2019 dawns on the heels of another Marc Marquez and Repsol Honda masterpiece last year. Despite extreme efforts from the likes of Ducati pilot Andrea Dovizioso, the ageless Yamaha wonder Valentino Rossi, his teammate Maverick Vinales and Suzuki newcomer Alex Rins, Marquez sailed to his fifth premier class championship in six years, utterly dominant amongst the yachting class. He took the championship lead in Jerez and never looked back, winning nine times, on the podium for five others, going 14 for 18 with Silverstone rained out.

Although there have been a number of changes—riders leaving, moving up from Moto2, switching from, say, Ducati to Honda—there is no denying that Marquez will have to crash out of the championship, a rather unlikely outcome given the fact that he practices crashing and generally avoids the whole over-the-handlebars scene. His surgically-repaired shoulder should be close to 100% by the time the red lights go out in Qatar. His shoulder became such a mess last year that a congratulatory slap from Scott Redding at Motegi caused it to dislocate again. The thought that he was able to demolish the field in that condition makes the notion of his improving this year more palatable. Not. The bike is generally unchanged, unruly and good everywhere. Having Lorenzo in the garage will increase the testosterone quotient on both sides. One expects Lorenzo to start off as a top tenner and improve from there as the season progresses.

The times are a-changin’ at the factory Monster Yamaha garage, with the torch on its way to being passed from ageless wonder Valentino Rossi to the future of Yamaha racing, at least for now, Maverick Vinales. Both riders should make consistent appearances in the top six this season as the 2019 YZR-M1 appears improved over the 2018 version (currently being ridden well by Fabio Quartararo at the Petronas SIC Yamaha satellite team.) Rossi fans are outraged by the assertion that Rossi has lost a step when, in fact, he has remained somewhat static for the past five years, constrained over and over by a steadily improving Marquez, who will officially enter The Prime of his career this year and for the next four or five.

Great.

With Rossi still selling a lot of gear and Vinales poking around podia on a regular basis, the factory team must have as its goal for 2019 to show significant improvement over last year’s bike, which neither rider liked. It has gone from the best ride on the grid on Bridgestones to the third-best on Michelins. Neither rider is likely to win a title in 2019, but the show must go on. Data harvesting, y’know.

Recent History at Losail

The 2016 iteration of the Commercial Bank Grand Prix of Qatar marked the beginning of the newest era in MotoGP, that of Michelin tires and a standard ECU across the grid.  In the run-up to the race, hopes that some new faces would emerge from the pack and find their way to the podium were building.  Under the lights of Losail, however, defending champion Lorenzo held serve for Yamaha against a strong challenge from Andrea Dovizioso and Marc Marquez; the Usual Suspects once again asserted their dominance.  At the time, a wager that nine different riders would ultimately win races that year would have seemed deranged. 

Movistar Yamaha’s new kid on the block, Maverick Viñales, did to the field of the 2017 Grand Prix of Qatar what he had done ever since he first placed his bum on the saddle of the YZR-M1 the previous November.  He ended the day at the top of the podium, having outdueled Dovizioso over the last eight laps of the race.  Rossi finished third that night, with Marquez fourth, keeping his powder dry, coloring between the lines. Aleix Espargaro flogged his Aprilia RS-GP to an encouraging sixth place which would, unfortunately, stand as the high water mark of his season.

The 2018 season opener at Losail went mostly according to expectations, which is to say it was crowded up front. At one point I counted nine bikes in the lead group, a sight normally seen in Moto3. French sophomore Johann Zarco led from pole most of the day, fueling a lot of premature trash talk in the Tech 3 garage. Once his tires went up, though, it came down to Dovizioso and Marquez for early bragging rights. Round One goes to the Italian by hundredths. No TKO.

Returning to your Previously Scheduled Programming

The new satellite Petronas team features Franco Morbidelli, moving from a 2017 Honda to a 2019 Yamaha, and apparently thrilled by the difference. Rookie French teenage teammate, heartthrob Fabio Quartararo is riding, I believe, 2018 equipment, learning the premier class game on a less-valuable bike of which, it is expected, he will destroy a dozen or so as he makes his way up the learning curve at 200 mph. One of these guys will likely take over for Rossi on the factory team when he retires, possibly as early as the end of this year, no later than the end of next year. Makes for a no-shit intra-team rivalry for the year which, in turn, suggests they will consistently fight to be in the points, perhaps the top ten, over a long season, with the Frenchman recording his share of DNFs and the Italian prevailing, himself a VR46 Academy grad. Rossi, I believe, will need to finish the season in the top six in order to honor the second year of his contract. Anything less would, I sense, be unacceptable, clear evidence that the time to retire has arrived.

The factory Ducati team, whose title sponsor I can never remember other than it is weak—Minnie Willow?—has two strong Italian contenders on brand new Desmosedicis with high motivation and proven skills. Factory crew for Danilo Petrucci, which is a first. Andrea Dovizioso, who had his career year in 2017, should still win a few races, but his championship aspirations are largely past tense. Both are, however, amongst the favorites for the Forget Marquez and His 350 Points championship fight, featuring Lorenzo, Rossi, Vinales and Suzuki’s Alex Rins.

The Pramac Ducati duo of Australian Jack Miller and rookie Italian VR46 rider Pecco Bagnaia will be wildcards at some venues especially, I suspect, at wet or flag-to-flag outings. Bagnaia is the second coming of Jorge Lorenzo, cutting his teeth on the Ducati, while Miller will need a bunch of top ten finishes to stay #1 on the #2 team. The #3 team, Avintia UnReale, fronts a recovering Tito Rabat alongside journeyman Karel Abraham, with only Rabat expected to find himself in the top ten on occasion. Dovizioso should win the intra-manufacturer trophy, but little else. (This, by the way, is the team Suzuki should look to buy out and pave the way for their satellite team.)

Speaking of Suzuki, the Ecstar team performed well enough to lose its previous concessions, forced this year to wear their big boy pants and slug it out with everyone else, same playing field. No sweat. Alex Rins is an Alien in the making and rookie teammate Joan Mir likewise, although he is a year or two behind Rins. Both are flogging improving bikes, a handful of horsepower from being consistently on the podium on a bike cognizant of Rossi’s famous words, “The front tire’s job is to inform me. The rear tire’s job is to obey me.” Suzuki gets that, and I believe a number of riders would be interested in their #2 team.

KTM, Austria’s gift to motorcycle racing, isn’t happening. Just getting that out there. The apologists are in full rant, defending performance which has been, at best, disappointing over two full years. Which, with the addition of the Tech 3 satellite operation, raised expectations amongst the PR types if few others. The factory team of Johann Zarco and Pol Espargaro are, I sense, being asked to make bricks without straw, and the satellite team of Miguel Oliveira and Hafizh Syahrin, also on 2019 equipment, is suffering likewise. The factory is throwing massive resources into a segment of the market in which it makes very little, leading some to believe that executives may be starting to use the term “or else” in their fantasy conversations with corporate rivals.

As for the intrepid, ever-optimistic Aprilia congregation, whose riders Aleix Espargaro and Andrea Iannone are keeping a stiff upper lip, Iannone suffering with his third bike in four years, his once-bright career in visible decline. Ducati to Suzuki to Aprilia. I suspect Suzuki would take him back if they did produce a #2 team, as he improved late in his previous tenure and folks say they canned him too soon.

Finally, before I forget, here are the preseason tranche projections, published previously in a separate article and cut/pasted for internal consistency:

Tranche 1:   Marc Marquez, Alex Rins, Maverick Vinales

Tranche 2:   Andrea Dovizioso, Valentino Rossi, Danilo Petrucci, Jorge Lorenzo

Tranche 3:   Jack Miller, Pecco Bagnaia, Takaa Nakagami, Cal Crutchlow, Tito Rabat, Franco  Morbidelli, Johann Zarco

Tranche 4:   Fabio Quartararo, Pol and Aleix Espargaro, Joan Mir, Andrea Iannone

Tranche 5:   Miguel Oliveira, Karel Abraham, Hafizh Syahrin

I don’t expect the final standings to look too much like this, as this is a moving target during the year owing to injuries, mostly. But, heading in, rather than being a complete jerk and allotting Marquez Tranche 1 by himself, I decided to be gracious and at least tip my hat to the other riders, as if this were going to be a real race season and no one knows who’s going to win.

Predicting the outcome of the first race of the season, under the lights in The Persian Gulf, sand and glare everywhere, a surreal shakedown cruise for everyone, is commonly referred to as “a fool’s errand.” This foolish errand boy will therefore throw out four names, three of which will, I suspect, end up on the podium (drum roll, please):  Marquez  Vinales  Petrucci  Bagnaia.

Whatever. Let the games begin. 2019 is upon us.

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Posted in Dorna, Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Losail, Marc Marquez, Moto, Moto2, Moto3, MotoGP, MotoGP 2018, MotoGP Losail, MotoGP Preview, MotoGP Results, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News | 9 Comments »

MotoGP Aragon Preview

September 17, 2018

© Bruce Allen     September 17, 2018

Simple: Dovi Must Run the Table 

Mid-September and it’s come down to this, for the handful of riders (other than Marc Marquez) entertaining increasingly-unlikely notions of winning the 2018 title. For the remainder of the season, it’s win or bin. No more brave smiles from the second step of the podium. In the lasting words of the late Roy Orbison, “It’s Now or Never.” Unless you get stoked finishing, you know, second, or third. 

I have given this last statement a bit of thought. Finishing second is vastly different in the sports of motorcycle racing and, say, boxing. Finishing second for the year in MotoGP is nothing to sneeze at. It’s just more forgettable. Unless, of course, it’s decided at Valencia. Not this year.

Recent History at Aragon

In 2015, Lorenzo put on an M1 clinic, leading wire to wire on the dusty plains. He reduced his deficit to teammate Valentino Rossi from 23 points to 14, as Dani Pedrosa held off repeated assaults from Rossi over the last five laps to capture second place. Fans around the world expected Rossi, who hadn’t won a race on Spanish soil since 2009, to steal Pedrosa’s lunch money late in the day. But the mighty mite held on, denying Rossi four points he badly wanted, and tying his best result for what was, at that point, a winless year. Pedrosa would go on to win at Motegi and Sepang, settling for fourth place for the year once again, just holding on to his Alien card. Looking back on it, this was the year Rossi’s fans learned to loathe #93, allegedly blocking for his countryman, later in the season. Much the same might have been said about Pedrosa here.

In 2016, Repsol’s suddenly-cerebral Marquez took a big step toward seizing the 2016 MotoGP title with a formidable win here. By thumping the factory Yamaha Bruise Brothers, he increased his margin from 43 to 52 points with four rounds left. A mistake on Lap 3 took him from first to fifth, but he remained patient, kept his powder dry, and went through, one by one, on Dovizioso, Viñales, Lorenzo and, finally, Rossi on the way to his first win in Spain since 2014.

Marquez recovered from an error early in the race to win the dramatic third of four Spanish rounds, #14 in 2017.  Following his blown engine in Britain and his win in the rain at Misano, the young Catalan wonder gathered momentum heading into the three-races-in-three-weeks hell of the Pacific flyaway. The podium celebration, also featuring teammate Dani Pedrosa and the then-exiled Jorge Lorenzo, took us back to the old days of 2013. The prospect of settling the championship in Valencia, however, diminished.

Marquez and Petrucci at Misano 2017

Petrucci and Marquez, Aragon 2017

History Aside, Here We Are

As fall approaches in the U.S., where virtually no one reads this, the 2018 MotoGP championship chase hangs by a thread. The top chaser, Ducati #1 Andrea Dovizioso, conceded the season to Marquez publicly last week; possibly playing head games, probably not. The rest of the contenders—Rossi, Vinales, Lorenzo—are either too inconsistent, too over-the-hill, or too under-horsed to mount any kind of a real challenge this year. Even in the unthinkable case that Marquez would allow himself to crash out of two of the remaining six rounds, that would only put things back in play for maybe one of the three. And it would be a long row to hoe from there.

As our British friends observe, there are 150 points “on offer” in the last six rounds of 2018. Marquez, again, AOBFO, has 67 points “in his pocket” and probably holds every tie-breaker known to man. Which translates, roughly, to one of the three main chasers winning, like, five of the last six races (!!!) while Marquez goes all Aleix Espargaro and fails to podium once for the remainder of the year. This, then, is what one finds when looking up the term “unlikely” in one’s online dictionary.

 MotoGP

TRACK RECORDS: RIDER, YEAR AND MANUFACTURER AFTER 13 ROUNDS 

LOSAIL                    2018           Marc Marquez               Honda 

RIO HONDA[1]        2014           Marc Marquez               Honda 

COTA[2]                   2015           Marc Marquez                Honda 

JEREZ                      2018          Cal Crutchlow               Honda 

LE MANS                2018           Johann Zarco                Yamaha 

MUGELLO             2018           Valentino Rossi              Yamaha 

CATALUNYA         2018           Jorge Lorenzo                Ducati 

ASSEN                     2015           Valentino Rossi              Yamaha 

SACHSENRING     2018           Marc Marquez               Honda 

BRNO                       2016           Marc Marquez               Honda 

RED BULL RING   2016           Andrea Iannone            Ducati 

SILVERSTONE[3]  2017           Marc Marquez                Honda         

MISANO M.S.         2018           Jorge Lorenzo                 Ducati

ARAGON                  2015            Marc Marquez                   Honda

CHANG                    2018

MOTEGI                   2015            Jorge Lorenzo                   Yamaha

PHILLIP ISLAND     2013            Jorge Lorenzo                   Yamaha

SEPANG I.C.              2015            Dani Pedrosa                   Honda

RICARDO TORMO   2016            Jorge Lorenzo                   Yamaha

[1] Weather

[2] Track conditions poor

[3] 2018 race cancelled

Ten eligible rounds this year—dry races on suitable surfaces—with seven new all-time records. 70 percent, year-to-date, with Buriram, by definition, in the W column. With  the highly-criticized Michelins and common control ECU. The remaining records this year are not terribly recent, with Marquez’ at Phillip Island recorded in 2013 when he was a rookie. Lorenzo’s records late in the season are impressive and endangered. He is also the only rider to record track records on different bikes. Also impressive. Not endangered. Investigative journalism like this is why MO pays me the big bucks. I know you were wondering.

Here’s what I’m wondering, wishing I had access to MotoGP historical numbers I could manipulate to back up my otherwise-baseless assertions. I think the big deal about winning pole is vastly overrated, should be and is treated like its own little “mini-accomplishment,” on jelly-soft tires with no gas for one lap, torpedoes be damned. Win a big tricked-out BMW. I suspect qualifying on the front row doesn’t significantly hurt one’s chances of winning the race compared to winning pole. Just sayin’ qualifying on the front row should be the emphasis. Not pole. Pole is mostly a notch on a bedpost. Other than in places like Misano, where it is a curse; no winner from pole in nine years.

Wondering about the correlation between winning pole and winning the race. About winning the pole and securing the podium. About the correlation between qualifying second and finishing first or second. About the correlation between qualifying third and finishing on the podium. Someone with better abilities to manage data from online sources please do the math over the past 20 years and provide the analysis in the COMMENTS section below. Some poor guy in, like, Bali is holding his breath.

Track records are, in my opinion, a big deal. The vast majority are pole laps. To the extent that winning pole produces a new track record, I’m down. Otherwise, it’s just a big Beamer. Marquez has a barn full of them and lets little brother Alex drive one whenever he wants. They both know poor Alex will never have one of his own.

Your Weekend Forecast

The long range forecast for the three-day weekend in metropolitan Alcañiz calls for sunny skies and hot temps—real hot on Friday, hotter on Saturday, and hellish on Sunday. And dusty. These races favor the leader, especially one on a Honda RC213V, since conditions will add an additional layer of stress for all the Marquez chasers, notably the Yamahas. With their mathematical chances of a premier class title in 2018 approaching the abscissa, they must nonetheless exude confidence, risking life and limb in a heroic but mostly symbolic attempt to pull off the impossible, and live up to the mythic expectations of teams, families, fans, sponsors and, ultimately, owners. Lots of constituents. Lots of pressure. Lots of pressure not to let the pressure show. Never let them see you sweat.

I really don’t give a rip if Jorge Lorenzo swipes pole again. This race needs to be Dovizioso attacking Marquez late in the day, Marquez either withstanding the attacks, running away, or not. Even if Dovi beats Marquez to the flag it will be a big-picture win for #93, as he would drop only 5 points to Dovi with but five rounds left, four of which are in those pesky Pacific time zones where things can go from bad to worse. Things like Marquez clinching in Australia. Things like that. As for third place, probably a Crutchlow on the Honda in the heat.

A new track record at Aragon, however, would be very cool. Marquez recording some kind of DNF would add interest to the next round in Thailand.

We’ll have results and instant analysis right here on Sunday before lunch EDT.

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Posted in Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Grand Prix of Aragon, Marc Marquez, Moto, Moto2, Moto3, MotoGP, MotoGP 2018, MotoGP Aragon, MotoGP Preview, Motorcycle Racing, Racing News, San Marino, Valentino Rossi | 2 Comments »

MotoGP Valencia Results

November 12, 2017

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com.

Marc Marquez Wins Sixth World Championship 

All season long, we at MO have been chanting the mantra, “Let Valencia Decide.” With the title unsettled heading into the weekend, the opportunity for a riveting finale existed (if only mathematically), Marquez holding a 21 point lead over Ducati pilot Andrea Dovizioso as the riders lined up on the grid. The math caught up with Dovi on Lap 25 when, desperate to get past insubordinate teammate Jorge Lorenzo, he ran hot into Turn 8, ultimately laying his GP17 down gently in the gravel. And so the 2017 title was awarded at Valencia, having been decided some weeks earlier. 

Practice and Qualifying 

All weekend, the MotoGP world appeared to be owned lock, stock and barrel by a sublime Marc Marquez. He spent Friday and Saturday zipping around the Ricardo Tormo circuit, seemingly without a care in the world. His approach to racing is unique and reflects his high racing IQ: He finds The (elusive) Limit on Friday and Saturday, then goes out and manages it on Sunday. As a result, despite hitting the deck 27 times over the course of the season, he crashed out of only two races.

Meanwhile, Andrea Dovizioso, The Great Italian Hope of 2017, was having problems coming to grips with the short, tight circuit that is Valencia. FP3, for Dovi, was a mess, and almost forced him to endure the ignominy of going through Q1. Q2 was little better, as Marquez laid down the first sub 1:30 lap of the weekend early in the session while Dovi could do no better than the back of the third row. The good news for him, if any, was that Marquez was joined on the front row by Johann Zarco and Andrea Iannone, both of whom have been intemperately endowed with gobs of reckless abandon.

Despite the dreadful company on the front row, Marquez appeared buoyant all day Saturday, and the weekend had anticlimax written all over it. The racing god in charge of qualifying, facing ridicule Saturday evening from the other racing gods, was heard to say, “Bollocks. You guys wanted Dovi on pole and Marquez 9th? No idea how I got that switched around. Bloody hell.” And, before we get started, let me raise the ire of some readers while I mention needlessly that Dovi and Marquez, the last two left standing, received stunning upgrades in the brolly girl department. (By comparison, Jorge Lorenzo’s brolly person was 6’3” tall with long dark hair and an Adam’s apple.)

The Race 

As the red lights went out on the 2017 season, the two Repsol Hondas of Marquez and Pedrosa jumped out front, which was big. Johann Zarco, starting well, dispatched Andrea Iannone on Lap 1. Gaining confidence on the great 2016 Yamaha M1, he went through on Pedrosa on Lap 2 and was allowed through by Marquez on Lap 4, as expected. Marquez, he of the high racing IQ, had a rabbit in front and a wingman behind him; he couldn’t want for more. With a loosely gathered lead group of five, the race proceeded, um, processed this way for the bulk of the day.

Marquez Being Marquez

Lap 24 would prove instructive. Zarco continued to lead, visions of his first MotoGP win, and the first ever win by a satellite Yamaha, dancing in his head. But Marquez, rather than maintaining a safe gap between himself and the leader, began inching closer to Zarco, appearing to be lining…him…up. Lining him up, when the title was sitting there on a platter. But with Dovi stuck back in fifth…

MM’s lizard brain took over on Lap 24 and #93 went through fast on Zarco at the end of the main straight, executing another transcendent save before riding through the turn, the run-off area and a large expanse of gravel, practically needing to purchase a ticket to get back in the race. He re-entered in fifth position and finished on the podium after the factory Ducati team imploded.

Was this part of the Marquez team strategy? To let someone take the lead, wait until late in the race, see what’s up with Dovi and, unless he’s leading, go for the win and if it doesn’t work out oh well? Must be, since second place was there for the taking. Unlike Lorenzo, Marquez seems to stick with the plan.

Drama in the Ducati Garage

Jorge Lorenzo–expected, at a minimum, to stay out of Dovi’s way while the Italian tried to make his way up front—inexplicably and blatantly blocked him for the first 12 laps. On Lap 13, JLo received the first of three notorious dashboard alerts—Mapping 8—code directing him to allow Dovizioso through.  All of which he ignored. After having said he hadn’t seen the exact same messages at Sepang two weeks earlier.

By Lap 20 he had also ignored three clear pit board directions to allow Dovi through. My notes on Lap 21 included “insubordinate.” Lorenzo was, finally, gracious enough to crash out on Lap 25, clearing the way for Dovi who, as excited as an Iowa farm boy in a Vegas whorehouse, almost immediately ran hot into Turn 8, entered the gravel trap, and fell victim to river rock, the 2017 championship chase with him, dusted and done.

The post-race meeting between Lorenzo, his team, and the visiting suits from Bologna promises to be interesting.  And all this, after Dovi declared just a month ago what a fine teammate Lorenzo has been in 2017, especially in comparison to The Maniac he shared the garage with last year.

Repsol Honda Magic

With five laps left, Zarco led a menacing Dani Pedrosa and a distant Marquez. The last lap of 2017 took shape between Zarco and Pedrosa, not the matchup many of us expected, but a good one nonetheless. The grizzled veteran and the impudent rookie. The Frenchman with nothing to lose and the Spaniard with nothing to gain.

Pedrosa made short work of Zarco at Turn 1 of the last lap and easily held him off on the way to his second win of the year, with Marquez gaining the third step on the podium. His win, and the Ducati debacle, delivered HRC a rare triple crown in MotoGP—top rider, top team and top constructor. It also saved Yamaha from finishing outside the top two OEMs for the first time since the earth cooled.

Key Moment of the Season 

Unfortunately, there is no obvious event one can easily point to as being the decisive moment of the 2017 campaign.  Marquez says it was winning at Sachsenring and Brno, finishing the first half and starting the second half strong. Others might say it was the collection of impossible saves (races in Assen and Valencia, practices in Brno, Mugello, Motegi and, famously, the Save of the Century during FP4 at Sepang). Personally, I think it was Phillip Island, where Marquez’s win and Dovi’s dumpster fire fanned an 11-point lead into a virtually insurmountable 33 with but two rounds left. 

The Last Word 

Despite the fact that a sizable portion of the MotoGP fan world dislikes Marc Marquez, there can be little argument that he is the best rider in an age of strong riders and relative equity in the distribution of quality bikes. I never thought I’d say anything very complimentary about Carmelo Ezpeleta, the big cheese at Dorna, but his goal, begun years ago, to level the playing field and lower costs for the teams is working out, at least the first part. There is more and better competition these days, and what used to be a sharp line separating the haves from the have nots has become blurred.  Much more proletarian, with the exception of the party leaders at the very top.

Listening to Marc Marquez discuss the championship in the post-race press conference, it became clear just how much mental energy he devotes to his craft. Yes, he has the entire package of physical attributes and a great company behind him. He freely admits to practicing crashing on Fridays and Saturdays, learning to avoid injury and allow the possibility of re-entering a race. (See Joan Mir’s performance in today’s Moto3 finale.  Dude has Alien written all over him.)

Six world championships at age 24. Valentino Rossi holds the record of nine at age 38. There was once a day where it appeared inevitable a young Tiger Woods would eclipse Jack Nicklaus’ career-record 18 wins in major tournaments, and many of you know how that worked out.  Granted, there is a world of young talent out there readying itself to take on Marc Marquez in MotoGP.  Names like Morbidelli, Mir, Renati, Loggia and more. They’re all fast.  But do they have the will, the mental discipline, the determination found in few athletes—Tom Brady and Peyton Manning come readily to mind—it takes to string together world championships like a daisy chain at such a young age?

Only time will tell. For now, the motorcycle racing world has a perfectly adequate example of excellence at work in the premier class of MotoGP.

“Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.”

 –Vince Lombardi

* * *    

 Thank you to the handful of readers who put up with this nonsense year after year.  It is a pleasure delivering it to you and laughing out loud at your comments.

I’ll be taking a glance at testing on Tuesday and Wednesday and will occasionally post during the offseason. I’m discussing covering both MotoGP and WSBK next season with The Powers That Be at MO, so be forewarned. I will try to talk them into ordering a 2017 Season Recap for a few weeks from now. Otherwise, I look forward to your constructive criticisms and hysterical comments again next year.  Peace.

Here are some images from Sunday’s race in Valencia.

Marquez Champ6

Marquez takes his sixth title in Valencia, 2017.

Marquez from behind

Most riders’ view of #93.

Marquez Valencia 2017

Clinching the 2017 championship, Valencia.

Morbidelli

Here comes trouble–Franco Morbidelli

Joan Mir

More trouble on the horizon–Joan Mir in Moto2 next year

Three World Champs

2017 World Champions

Screenshot (59)

The man who would be king in 2017. Kudos, Andrea.

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Posted in 2017 MotoGP, 2017 MotoGP championship, Andrea Dovizioso, Dani Pedrosa, Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Honda, Jorge Lorenzo, KTM, Marc Marquez, Maverick Vinales, Moto, Moto2, MotoGP, MotoGP Valencia, Racing News | 6 Comments »

MotoGP Valencia Setup

October 30, 2017

© Bruce Allen.                      October 30, 2017

Nine years since Casey Stoner won on a Ducati at Valencia, yet Dovizioso has to win on Sunday or else. Yamahas have done OK, too.

Assume Marquez slides out of the race on Lap 1. I know, I know.

In addition to Dovi, not counting Jorge Lorenzo, who wouldn’t dare, there are still four or five guys who are ready, willing and able to win in Valencia, which means Dovi has his work cut out for him. Guys who could be leading or closing on him as the last lap approaches. Maverick Vinales. Johann Zarco. Rossi? Probably not, for a number of reasons. Dani Pedrosa, Marquez’ wingman for the weekend, who could win the race and give his teammate a title at the same time. Who doesn’t give a shit about Andrea Dovizioso or Ducati. Cal Crutchlow. Aleix.

So, what we may get is what we asked for—a last lap battle for a title—between Dovizioso and somebody, just not Marquez, with nine years of history running against the Italian. Marquez, one believes, is not going to do too much fighting this weekend. Dovi is going to do nothing but fight. And I can’t imagine too many people getting too geeked up watching Dovi win and Marquez finish a distant sixth, say, and winning the title anyway.

If, on the other hand, Marquez is running by himself in 7th place with two laps left, riders who might have been deferring to Dovi, if any, could change their minds and go after him. Even Lorenzo, whose team orders would have likely expired by then. I would pay good money to see Lorenzo and Dovi going neck and neck during the final lap, even with the title effectively out of reach. Lorenzo wanting his first win on the Ducati. Dovi wanting to keep his disappearing title chance alive.

That would be worth the price of admission. In fact, the odds, as I see them, are pretty high that we will have a dramatic last lap or three, with the title possibly on the line. Take THAT, F-1.

If this site had the horsepower, I would offer up a real survey.

Survey: Rider Most Likely to Fight with Dovizioso over the Last Two Laps:

◊ Maverick Vinales
◊ Johann Zarco
◊ Dani Pedrosa
◊ Cal Crutchlow
◊ Aleix Espargaro

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Posted in 2017 MotoGP, 2017 MotoGP championship, Andrea Dovizioso, Dani Pedrosa, Jorge Lorenzo, Marc Marquez, Maverick Vinales, Moto, MotoGP, MotoGP Valencia, Valencia, Valentino Rossi | 6 Comments »

MotoGP Sepang Preview

October 23, 2017

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com.

Mature Marquez Seeking Fourth Title 

For the fourth time in five premier class seasons, Honda’s remarkable Marc Marquez stands on the cusp of a championship. His win in Australia last week left him with a short to-do list this week in Malaysia: 1. Try to finish no worse than second. 2. Try to finish ahead of Andrea Dovizioso. 3. If both #1 and #2 fail, lose to Dovizioso by seven points or less. Otherwise, he will have to return to Valencia in two weeks for some kind of decider. Probably the best thing for #93 would be to euthanize this title chase Sunday under the cover of darkness, many time zones removed from home, setting up a triumphal fait accompli return to Spain. We couldn’t disagree more. 

Recent History at Sepang

I was there in 2014 when Marc Marquez added to his record collection by taking the pole and the win, with Rossi and Lorenzo giving maximum, ultimately futile chase in The Year of Marquez. Though the title had already been settled, the grid was taking the competition seriously, seriously enough that eight riders failed to finish.  Dani Pedrosa, in the chase for runner-up for 2014, crashed twice, putting his hopes aside for yet another year.  LCR Honda’s Stefan Bradl somehow finished fourth, coming close yet again to a final premier class podium to go along with his unlikely second-place trophy from Laguna Seca in 2013.

The 2015 Shell Malaysia Motorcycle Grand Prix will be remembered and talked about for years.  Not for the fact that Repsol Honda #2 Dani Pedrosa won the race.  Nor for the fact that Jorge Lorenzo took second place to pull within seven points of the championship lead.  The 2015 race will be remembered as the day Valentino Rossi allowed his machismo to get the best of him, such that kicking Marc Marquez into the weeds became, for a brief moment, a higher priority than winning his tenth world championship.  Some of you, the lucky ones, have forgotten most of what occurred then and thereafter.  Those of you unable to forget are in danger of joining the small cadre of bitter Hayden fans who remember Estoril 2006 and still, every year, wear their pink “PEDROSA SUCKS” t-shirts to the race in Austin.

The 2016 running of the Malaysian Motorcycle Grand Prix on the newly refurbished track went especially well for several combatants, and not so well for a few others.  For factory Ducati veteran Andrea Dovizioso, his skills, his bike, the track and the weather came together in the best possible way, allowing him the relief of a second premier class win, his first since Donington Park in 2009. Contenders Cal Crutchlow, Marc Marquez and Andrea Iannone all crashed, for no obvious reason, within a minute of one another mid-race, to the delight of those following them.  DesmoDovi was joined on the podium by the factory Yamaha duo of Rossi and Lorenzo.

Tranche Warfare

After Round 15    Motegi

Tranche 1:   Marquez, Dovizioso

Tranche 2:   Vinales, Pedrosa, Rossi, Zarco, Lorenzo, A Espargaro, Petrucci

Tranche 3:   Rins, Folger, P Espargaro, Iannone, Baz, Bautista

Tranche 4:   Crutchlow, Miller, Redding, Barbera, Rabat

Tranche 5:   Abraham, Smith, Lowes

After Round 16    Phillip Island 

Tranche 1:   Marquez

Tranche 2:   Rossi, Vinales, Dovi↓, Pedrosa, Zarco, A Espargaro, P Espargaro↑

Tranche 3:   Petrucci↓, Rins, Iannone, Redding↑, Miller↑, Crutchlow↑, Lorenzo↓

Tranche 4:   Baz↓, Bautista↓, Smith↑, Abraham↑, Rabat

Tranche 5:   Lowes, (Folger), Barbera↓

I can tell from here that whatever problem Ducati experienced at Phillip Island translated into these rankings. All six riders who dropped a spot ride for Ducati. But Scott Redding and Karel Abraham each climbed a notch, again on Ducatis. I can’t think of any rider who belongs with Marquez in Tranche 1 at the moment. Sepang, where the title race will probably be decided, will be the last round fought in anger, and thus the last round for ranking the riders.

I welcome any and all readers to argue with my assertion that Marquez currently is in a class by himself. All too often we hear riders talking about “having a good rhythm,” which, watching carefully, one can understand. I recall Cal Crutchlow commenting that if you got out of shape in Turn 2 at COTA you would be screwed all the way through Turn 9. Marquez seems to have found his rhythm this year at Catalunya, since, other than the engine problem in England, he hasn’t been off the podium since and has racked up five wins in the process. Perhaps it takes four or five races to get fully acclimated to a new RC213V each year. At present, it’s difficult to determine exactly where the bike stops and Marquez starts, so closely are they intertwined.

Who Will Challenge #93 in 2018?

My reflexive response to this question is, “Nobody.” That’s probably an overstatement.  Rossi will still be in the mix.  Yamaha teammate Maverick Vinales should improve next season and, depending on the speed and handling of next year’s M1, may push Marquez. Andrea Dovizioso my have another career year with Ducati, but our confidence in his abilities this season has been shaken.

Johann Zarco, Alex Rins and Jonas Folger will not become serious title threats, if ever, until they secure factory rides. Danilo Petrucci needs to learn how to be fast in dry conditions.  Jorge Lorenzo will, I’m pretty sure, simply serve out his sentence at Ducati and go looking for a better gig starting in 2019.  The young guns coming up from Moto2—Nakagami, Morbidelli, Luthi and Simeon—present no real threat in 2018, other than to the riders they may collect crashing out of their first few races.

One thing is certain. Honda, Yamaha, Ducati and KTM are going to engage in a hellishly expensive silly season next year positioning themselves for 2019. There is a rumor going around that KTM has offered Marquez a blank check to defect after next season.

A final word about next season. Most MotoGP people I know are excited about the improvements visible in the Aprilia and KTM bikes, while Suzuki took awhile this season before starting to show renewed signs of life. All three figure to be stronger next season. Even so, it would take a miracle, in my opinion, for any of them to contend seriously for a championship before 2020. Conversation for another day.

Your Weekend Forecast

Before I go to weather.com to confirm, let me guess that conditions in central Malaysia will be brutally hot with a chance for torrential downpours at any given moment. Yes. Temps will approach 90° each day with an 80% chance of thunderstorms all weekend and, from the looks of it, the rest of the year. There will be some gruesome stuff growing inside those leather racing suits by Sunday evening.

As for who will do what, I’m lacking any real insight, as the last few rounds of the MotoGP season remind me of the last few games of the NBA season which, for non- playoff-bound teams, is generally garbage time.  I am virtually certain that Marc Marquez will end up on the podium. If it’s a wet race I expect to see a Ducati on the podium as well, perhaps Petrucci. The third spot on the podium is anyone’s guess, but I’m going to go with Rossi, the default choice for a podium every single week.

We will post results and analysis sometime Sunday morning on the U.S. east coast.  Enjoy the show.

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Posted in 2017 MotoGP, 2017 MotoGP championship, Malaysian Motorcycle Grand Prix, Moto, Moto2, MotoGP, MotoGP Preview, MotoGP Results\, MotoGP Sepang, Racing News | 2 Comments »

MotoGP Silverstone Preview

August 21, 2017

© Bruce Allen.  Exclusive to Motorcycle.com

For the Chasers It’s Time to Fish or Cut Bait

MotoGP Madness descends upon the British Midlands this weekend as Round 12, the two-thirds mark of the 2017 season, arrives. Repsol Honda prodigy Marc Marquez maintains his lead in the series at 16 points, but only 35 points separate the top five riders. A single mishap for #93 and it’s anybody’s season. Marquez was down by 37 points after Mugello, and has gained 53 points on the field in the last five rounds. His pursuers need to evacuate or get off the pot if they want to Let Valencia Decide.

The factory Yamaha contingent of Valentino Rossi and Maverick Vinales are constrained in this effort by the appearance, if not the fact, that the 2016 M-1 carrying Tech 3 rookies Johann Zarco and Jonas Folger around the great tracks of the world is a better bike than the 2017 iteration. We saw this previously at Honda, where the 2014 model of the RC213V was so superior to the 2015 model that Marquez switched to the 2014 chassis midway through the 2015 season in an effort to salvage his only non-championship campaign since coming up from Moto2 in 2013.

The opinions of the riders are mixed. I have not heard Rossi complaining about the bike any more this year than in previous years, other than 2011-12 when he was exiled to what was then Ducati Island. Vinales has no frame of reference. He undoubtedly thought he had died and gone to heaven when he won three of his first five premier class races on the Yamaha. Since Mugello, though, he has lost to at least one of the Tech 3 riders every time out. What other possible explanation can there be for two rookies snapping at the heels of a future hall-of-famer and the arguable GOAT? It’s gotta be the bike.

Recent History at Silverstone

2014 was The Year of Marquez. He had reeled off 10 wins in a row to start the season, followed by his curious 4th place finish last time out at Brno. With a lead in the championship of 53 points, many thought Brno was a bump in the road. Some thought otherwise, that somehow Marquez might have been “broken.” Silverstone, making it three dry races in a row in that wettish year, was where we would find the answer.

With a front row of Marquez, Dovi and Lorenzo, the two Spaniards went off to fight their own private battle, Lorenzo in the early lead. On Lap 18, after some classic paint-trading, Marquez bulled his way through on his countryman, proving that just because you haven’t started shaving yet doesn’t mean you aren’t sporting a large pair. At the finish, it was Marquez, trailed by Lorenzo (+0.7), the top five completed by Rossi (+8.5), Pedrosa (+8.7) and Dovizioso (+9.2). At least Vale had the pleasure of pimping Pedrosa at the flag. Dovi’s GP14 was still difficult to ride.

2015: The year Lorenzo, with an arguable assist from Marquez, snagged the title over Rossi at Valencia. Round 12 that season was shaping up as a Marquez-Lorenzo cage match, the countrymen and rivals hammering the grid during the four free practice sessions. They qualified one-two, followed by Pedrosa and Rossi. The weather gods got involved just before the sighting lap, and a dry race suddenly became wet. Rossi’s outstanding win in the rain put him 12 points in front of Lorenzo as the flying circus headed for Vale’s second home crib at Misano.

Last year, on a beautiful summer Sunday in the British Midlands, a red flag on Lap 1 slimmed things down to a 19-lap joust. A Suzuki won a premier class race that day for the first time since 2007, young Maverick Vinales ending his day standing jubilant on the top step of the podium. He was joined there by my boy Cal Crutchlow and a desperate Valentino Rossi, who won a knife fight with Marc Marquez for the final podium spot. Despite this, Marquez left Britain smiling as always, leading the season by 50 points, not a whisker on his chin.

Yamaha-Friendly has become Ducati-Friendly

Andrea Dovizioso has won three times this year, at Mugello, Catalunya and now Austria. Throwing out Austria, which some say was added to the calendar for the express purpose of giving Ducati a venue they can dominate, we looked at recent results at the other two cribs. At each, Marquez won in 2014, with Yamahas taking both in 2015 and 2016. My conclusion is that Ducati’s success is coming at Yamaha’s expense. We have spoken over the years about how some tracks favor a particular brand, and for all those years it was only Honda or Yamaha. Now Ducati has been added to the mix. And Silverstone, with its long lines and fast turns, is built for speed.

Lastest Rider Reports for 2018

Courtesy of a bevy of releases and reports elsewhere, we suspect or know most of the following. Alvaro Bautista will stay at Aspar. Karel Abraham appears likely to stay as well. Takaaki Nakagami will officially join Cal Crutchlow at LCR Honda. Reale Avintia Racing appears to want to sign Tito Rabat, for whatever reason. Perhaps they suspect his fortunes will improve on a satellite Ducati versus his lackluster results on a satellite Honda. Sam Lowes, Stefan Bradl, Mike Kallio and Thomas Luthi are rumored to be contending for the second Marc VDS bike alongside Franco Morbidelli. And Xavier Simeon, late of Moto2, is in the running to displace Loris Baz at Avintia. Many of these are still in the “rumor” stage.

Re-Tranching for the Helluvit

After Round 10:

Tranche 1: Vinales, Marquez, Dovizioso, Rossi, Pedrosa
Tranche 2: Zarco, Petrucci, Folger, Crutchlow, A Espargaro
Tranche 3: Barbera, Miller, Bautista, Baz, Rins,
Tranche 4: Abraham, P Espargaro, Iannone, Lorenzo
Tranche 5: Redding, Rabat, Smith, Lowes

After Round 11:

Tranche 1: Vinales, Marquez, Dovizioso, Rossi, Pedrosa
Tranche 2: Zarco, Bautistaꜛ, Folger, Crutchlow, A Espargaro
Tranche 3: Barbera, Miller, Petrucciꜜ, Baz, Lorenzoꜛ
Tranche 4: Abraham, Iannone, Rinsꜜ, Reddingꜛ
Tranche 5: P. Espargaroꜜ, Rabat, Smith Lowes

This is becoming a three-tiered Usual Suspects diagram. There are nine or ten riders consistently in the top two tranches, and another similar number regularly in the bottom two. Tranche three, the median, if you will, gets movement from both directions; there should be more variance in Tranche 3 than in the 1&2 and 4&5 combinations. Like it or not, Alvaro Bautista seems to be a Tranche 2 guy, Lorenzo a #3. Iannone, Rins Redding and Pol Espargaro have joined the have-nots and not-yets at the bottom of the bowl, all moving in the wrong direction at the wrong time of year. Meanwhile, Tranches 1 and 2 are more or less static.

A more enterprising writer with, say, an advanced degree in economics would model the rankings for each rider each week, compare it with the chart of their results, perform multiple regression analysis on the two curves, whip out a couple of derivatives, and lose to crushing boredom every single reader he ever had in one chart. He would, however, have an interesting graphic representation of the relationship between a rider’s objective performance and his subjective ranking. Perhaps all this tranching stuff is just a big popularity contest.

Your Weekend Forecast

The long range forecast from weather.com shows (what else?) cool and damp conditions expected for the weekend. Temps in the high 60’s, chance of rain each day. Perfect conditions for cultivating mold, not so much for motorcycle racing, especially for Honda, whose bikes like it hot. I expect to see two Spaniards and one Italian on the podium Sunday afternoon humming the Spanish national anthem. We’ll have results and analysis right here as soon as possible thereafter,

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Posted in 2017 MotoGP, British Motorcycle Grand Prix, Grand Prix Motorcycle Racing, Moto, Moto2, MotoGP, MotoGP Silverstone, Racing News | 1 Comment »

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