Posts Tagged ‘Enea Bastianini’

Another Crackpot MotoGP Theory Validated

May 22, 2022

I’m pretty sure I told you so. I’m pretty sure I told you that a long lap penalty. or having a last lap waved off for getting in the green, an untimely DNF. Any of these could decide the championship in a race that, in the words of my late Aunt Frannie, is tighter than a tick.

I’d like to think that I called it when I suggested an inverse relationship between the number of DNFs recorded by a rider and his rank in the chase. These top ten YTD standings are current as of 05/21/2022.

Rider                                                Points                                  #DNF

Quartararo                                          102                                       0

A. Espargaro                                         98                                        0

Bastianini                                               94                                       1

Rins                                                       69                                         1

Miller                                                     62                                         2

Zarco                                                      62                                        2

Bagnaia                                                   56                                        2

B. Binder                                                  56                                        1

Mir                                                           56                                         2

M Marquez                                               54                                        2

This illustrates, once again, that, as the expression goes, in order to finish first, one must first finish.

The four riders leading the 2022 chase have averaged, over the first seven rounds, half a DNF, with neither Quartararo nor Aleix haven’t  crashed once. Riders five, six and seven–Miller, Zarco and Bagnaia–have all crashed out of two races, returning us briefly to the days when the Desmo was considered unridable by anyone other than Casey Stoner. In fact, of riders five through eleven, all have crashed out twice other than Brad Binder, whose numbers suggest he is too stubborn to stay down, that he may have remounted once or twice.

The current poster child for this “win or bin” mentality is Pramac Racing’s Jorge Martin, with DNFs in four of his first seven. Earlier in the season he looked ready to assume the second chair on the factory Ducati team. Lately, however, Mo Mentum, the famous sixth man in basketball, the 12th man in the Seattle Seahawks’ crazy home field advantage, seems to be smiling on your boy EBas, at the expense of Jack Miller, who would look good in KTM colors. Honda must be sweating  bullets trying to get Mir signed now that PEsp is feeling unwanted. Mir, one supposes, is not looking forward to wrestling the RC213V, at least the 2022 iteration. Neither of the LCR boys, Nakagami nor Little Brother, can ride the Honda. PEsp will have his moments at his tracks but is nothing like consistent. And, if you were a betting man, um, person, who would you rather have a grand on right now–Marquez, with 54 points or Bagnaia with 56.

Interesting that Maverick Vinales has a clean DNF record but only 33 points, suggesting he is not riding the Aprilia hard enough. Much the same could be said about PEsp. Oh, and just for the record I expect Ducati to crush Mugello, lock out the podium, and convince Fabio that his future does not lie with Yamaha, that he’s caught them with the OEM pendulum swinging in the wrong direction. Is this the weekend Zarco finally achieves liftoff speed? Can Marquez continue trying to catch a tow into Q2? Will young EBas continue his poised, efficient efforts to winning a premier class title as a sophomore in the Marquez era, or at least the close of it. Fabio knows he has to remain perfect in order to remain in contention, putting massive pressure on himself. And my boy Aleix is sitting there making it look easy on an Aprilia that finally does what it’s told.

One of the few things I remember from five years of university-level economics is the tendency of large numbers to regress to the mean, all things being equal, which they never are. In the immediate case, as is almost always the case, you have a new group of Aliens. It’s true. Your present group of Aliens includes EBas, Pecco, Fabio, Aleix. The jury is officially out on #93; we may be witnessing the end of an era, the emergence of Italy, fast young Italian Riders and the, ahem, iconic Italian brand, the Really Big Red Machine. Europe, in Ducati and Aprilia, seeming to enjoy the upper hand in recent times, Fabio and Yamaha holding on for dear life. The Suzuki boys, Rins and Mir, appear disillusioned, watching their teams disintegrate beneath them.

And so it goes in grand prix yachting. I expect that latest division amongst the racing cognoscenti is whether Marquez can bring it back home again, like, in 2023, 2024? He needs a better bike, which Honda has generally provided. No sense in gathering input from PEsp any longer, as his head is unlikely to still be in the game. Nor does he appear to be at all effective as a wingman. Anyway, I think the top three riders at this moment–Fabio, Aleix and EBas–will not be the same three at the top of the heap heading to Valencia. In my unsolicited opinion, I think Fabio is in trouble at tracks like Mugello and Red Bull Ring. Assen is the fastest track on the calendar. He is so unlikely to maintain his clean slate, and when it goes, there goes his lead in the series. Aleix is making it look easy, a third of the way through the season, and EBas is threatening to run away with things.

Somewhere in me resides the thought that the guys who’ve avoided gravel traps thus far are due for a visit. That once Fabio loses his grip on the title, his successor will have a brief ride at the top. The greatest movements, the worst movements, are a DNF at this point. The figures would argue that the riders most at risk of a DNF at this time are Fabio, Aleix, EBas and Rins. This is the type of season in which the MotoGP announcers begin wetting themselves,  waxing euphoric about “those precious _____ points.”

Similar to their race strategy at certain tracks, perhaps the riders don’t actually want to be in the lead this early in the season, especially since there is no runaway winner who needs stopping. It is simply vital that the riders gathered at the top of the heap today remain upright on race days, that they continue to gather points no matter what, that they know who and what is ahead of them and behind them. That they take no stupid risks that would jeopardize another rider.

So far, IMHO, this season is shaping up exactly the way fans want it. There are three Aliens at this moment. There is a host of challengers waiting for someone in front of them to fall. There is just so much riding on every turn, the race, the season, the silly season, which brand is on the upswing, which brand is heading down? Competition amongst the teams–first and foremost, beat your teammate.

It’s fair to expect financial pressures to force teams to cut costs, a process well beyond the scope of this effort. We’e been down this road before and have been breaking all-time track records along the way. If I were a betting man I would be that all the money spent on winglets is all the money that will get spent, i.e., no more R&D on winglets with wind tunnels and etc. Beyond that I don’t know, other than them that has, gets.

Some teams are scratching their heads this year.l LCR Honda. Factory Suzuki. Gresini, current employer of EBas. Jack Miller needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat to keep his current seat. Why does Alex Rins appear to be odd man out during this silly season? Riding Aprilia for Leopard Racing, that could work.

This week is Mugello, one of the great venues in this sport. So much history, none of which I can remember, but I know it’s out there. Perhaps the best slipstream anywhere, adds a whole new dimension to bike racing. The noise. As we like to say out here in Hoosierville, “MotoGP is one of God’s great gifts to mankind. It. Just. Is.

So go tell your friends. Tell them it’s the best sport on two wheels. Ever.

MotoGP 2022 Round Seven–Le Mans

May 14, 2022

[Sorry guys and Allison. This is going to happen occasionally with Catholic grandfathers. One of my grandsons is getting confirmed this weekend, which entails an all-day retreat on Saturday and a full slate of activities on Sunday. I will get up early on Sunday and watch the races, but practice and qualifying are mostly a lost cause. I will do a brief write-up of the MotoGP race, probably Sunday night.

Thank you for hanging with me.]

Let’s talk about race day.

Moto3 was a victim of a two-minute rain shower during the first two laps of the race, leaving almost a dozen riders dazed with gravel in their underwear, a red flag, and a 14 lap sprint as a result. Young Jaume Masia, the latest Pride of KTM, persevered against Ayuma Sasaki, Izan Guevara (the next great MotoGP rider) and Dennis Foggia, taking the lead in Turn 13 of the last lap for 25 points, gaining 12 points on series leader Sergio Garcia and cutting his lead for 2022 to 17 points. Foggia and Masia are tied, with young Guevara only 6 points farther back. The Hondas figure to have an advantage at Mugello, but, seriously, who can predict what will happen week-to-week in this, the best racing in MotoGP.

Moto2 was a two man procession led by the factory KTM duo of Pedro Acosta and Augusto Fernandez. Acosta, a disappointment for 2022 after tearing a new one in the Moto3 championship last year, looked like he would finally begin to return to his dominant 2021 form, leading from the holeshot until an unforced error on Lap 11 took him out of the race, handing the win to teammate Fernandez. Bridesmaid Aron Canet took P2 yet again, with Thai sensation Somkiat Chantra stealing the final podium spot ahead of erstwhile American Cam Baubier, who came as close to his first grand prix podium as one can get. After an atrocious qualifying and early race, series leader Celestino Vietti salvaged eight points with a late charge, leaving him 16 points in front of Ai Ogura for the year, with Canet another three points back. Not the best Moto2 race I’ve ever seen, but they can’t all be barn burners.

MotoGP was eventful, especially for the Ducati contingent, which thrives at point-and-shoot layouts like Bugatti. From gasping Yamaha pilot Frankie Morbidelli running off track during the sighting lap to Pecco Bagnaia crashing out of the lead on Lap 21, ceding the win to Enea Bastianini, there was something for every taste and budget. Alex Rins continued his recent return to MotoGP hell, crashing out on Lap 2 after going for a long walkabout in the gravel. Herve Poncharal’s KTM boys crashed out within three laps of one another early in the race. Joan Mir joined Suzuki teammate Rins on the sidelines after crashing out on Lap 14.

Bastianini moved past Jack Miller into P2 on Lap 12, setting up an Italian Ducati duel with Bagnaia, which took shape on Lap 19. Bastianini is my current favorite to take the 2022 title, having won three out of seven outings, consistently having plenty of rear tire left late in the race to scare the crap out of anyone still in front of him. Today it was Pecco who folded under the pressure, giving him two DNFs in 2022 and putting a serious dent in his title hopes. Miller held on for a rather quiet P2, with plucky Aleix Espargaro and his newly-competitive Aprilia keeping his chances alive with another impressive P3. Fabio Quartararo salvaged P4 after struggling early. Had the 100,000 French fans been sober at the end of the race, they would have been disappointed by their young heartthrob; as it was, P4 probably felt like a win. Johann Zarco, the other French pilot, looking increasingly like a caricature of the swarthy villain in an animated French movie, followed Fabio to the finish in P5, having disposed of the increasingly irrelevant Marc Marquez on Lap 17.

So, for the season, Quartararo sits on top with 102 points, followed by Aleix at 98 and EBas at 94. I’d have to go back and look, but my earlier-in-the-season projection for the 2022 podium had two of these guys, plus Joan Mir, slugging it out for the year. Mir and Rins appear to be completely scrambled by having their team collapse beneath them, withdrawing from the chase at the end of 2022. Pussies! I think it’s a safe bet that the Ducatis are going to enjoy another clambake at their home crib in Mugello in two weeks. Fabio is going to have to rely on some serious slipstreaming to keep up. I’ve stopped worrying about Espargaro, as he seems to do well everywhere after over a decade of futility; he must have a permanent erection these days.

A Little Eye Candy for Youse Guys

The girls from Moulin Rouge

Screenshot (752)

Vive la France. Downtown Sarthe.
Jack Miller’s brolly girl.
Quick–Pecco Bagnaia or Jorge Lorenzo?
France’s #1 sporting hero, 2022.
The raffish Johann Zarco.

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